General Comments

Helpful to look back before looking forward.

Important to recognise what we do well and not diminish this through ill thought through policy initiatives.

Challenges within the school sector - especially in relation to failing some pupils who then are picked up by the college sector

Changes to the University sector ie becoming more part time will have impact on college sector.

Colleges have experience of reacting to changing political, social and economic climates.

Difficulties associated with trying to predict the future. Better to make general assumptions.

Need for succession planning

2020 is very close - the overall picture will not change in such a timescale.

Over past 20 years there have been lots of operational changes but few strategic changes.

Capacity to react is more important than trying to predict the future.

Shape of the Sector

Shape of colleges will be affected by shape of schools, universities, the public sector and industry.

The shape/model doesn't matter as long as it continues to deliver appropriate outcomes. The drivers of required outcomes will remain the same as now i.e. economic changes, skills, social changes and community demand.

Executive will determine the shape.

Sector reacts better to real change on the ground rather than following directions.

A hub and spoke model would only be appropriate if sector decides this is the way forward to meet leaner needs.

Remain flexible

Is the shape of the sector important as long as it continues to deliver?

Some colleges will continue to be community based while others will be more internationally focussed.

Whatever the shape it should remain responsive and flexible.

Need to be able to respond to learner demands

More meaningful partnerships between schools- colleges - universities.

Benefit of some centralisation of support functions but not too centralised so cannot respond quickly.

Possibly fewer institutions in certain geographical areas. More integrated campuses

Changes in how colleges relate to each other and other institutions. Some areas will have closer links between colleges and universities.

More collaborative working between colleges in areas such as provision, staff development, generic marketing, sharing services and benchmarking and relationship local universities.

Shape will be determined by legislation, funding and policy. Shape should be in collaboration with national and local governments.

Will there still be a need for a Funding Council

Communities feeling a sense of ownership for their local college

More amalgamations will reduce the number of institutions - only if on a voluntary basis

Greater collaboration between colleges

More coherent sector with less barriers to learning

Easier movement for learners between the different education sectors.

More use of shared facilities with other public sector bodies ie community sport centres, libraries, health care.

Some colleges might become more specialised while other remain broad.

Impact of private training providers.

Possibly be able to deliver and award their own degrees or on behalf of universities.

Too many colleges for the size of Scotland

Sector needs the ability to look at the long term - long term funding and governance systems.

Economic Factors

Fully utilising Scotland's human capital is an economic imperative over the next 15-20 years.

If economic slow down politicians could make tough decisions on priorities for public spending.

European enlargement. Economies of accession countries will start to compete with Scotland

Global competition - China, USA and India

Development of metropolitan regions

Scotland could become even more service industry led - so will need the skills for this sector

If slower economy then learners might make more economic choices and question the value of a learning, i.e. four year degree.

Could affect staff costs.

Backlash from current economic activities ie reversal of foreign call centres and more local bank branches.

If less public money colleges will need to increase the amount of other sources of income. Danger that colleges could become too focussed on income generation and not on their actual mission.

Impact of greater autonomy from Westminster

Greater mobility across the world - impact on wages.

Becoming a more 24/7 culture impact on way people perceive learning and expectations of how it will be delivered.

Impact of the withdrawal of structural funds

If there is an economic down turn companies might be less willing to pay for staff CPD training.

Competition in attracting school pupils into education - competition from employers and universities.

Important to improve retention rates within Scotland of qualified tradesmen

Employers might start to realise that degrees are not necessary for certain jobs and that a college course may be more appropriate.

How long will migrants from accession states stay in Scotland?

Will accession country migration push those at the bottom of the socio economic scale even further down?

Will migrants add a new vibrancy to Scotland's economy in the long term?

Society getting wealthier may have more money to spend on personal care etc - impact on colleges

Social Factors

Demographics challenge

Colleges are community capacity builders

Who will pay for education in the future - state, learners or business?

Colleges help stabilise disadvantaged communities by giving opportunity to young people - especially young men

The need to eradicate the causes of NEET and reduce the numbers on incapacity benefit

Impact of greater autonomy from Westminster

Difficulty involved in sustaining the current target of getting 50% of age cohort into HE.

Education & health

Impact of Curriculum for Excellence

Possibly the same social issues in some of Scotland's cities.

What is an appropriate participation rate for Scotland and who decides? Will this change?

Effects of rapid population change in Scotland's rural communities

Will a 21 year old unemployed heroin addict in 2006 be a 35 year old unemployed heroin addict in 2020?

Colleges are not just about improving productivity but also improving a person's well being.

Purpose of Col leges

To deliver lifelong learning.

Questioned whether colleges can continue the wide role they currently provide.

Possible mission for the sector as a whole and then local missions for each individual college.

Provide life skills

Meet the needs of the learners

Meet the needs of employers - workforce requirements

Help to develop a knowledgeable population.

To respond to and reflect government policy.

Colleges will continue to do what they have always done - respond to demands.

Delivery

Hopefully improved joined up-ness between support agencies and colleges. Improved role of Careers Scotland

Improved estates so the colleges can deliver. Estates need to be improved to attract learners and staff.

Delivery will take place in college building or in the works place but delivery may change.

Need to decide what Scotland wants and needs and then decide how colleges can help to deliver.

Proper articulation.

Need better funding to respond to change under new employment legislation

Focussed on the needs of the learner

How colleges deliver will be defined by student demand.

Markets/ Activities

Will need to begin to work with graduates on their employability skills. This is already happening in Australia for example.

Increase in the number of international students - possibly from China or India

Export learning.

Increase the amount of enterprise activity

Universities could focus on delivery of courses at level 9 and above and colleges focus on delivering courses level 8 and below.

Impact of public sector reform on the college sector.

School/College partnerships

Colleges should remain just as diverse

ESOL

Catering for learners from accession states

Pre-employment training, updating skills and retraining for career changes.

Catching the university dropouts before they leave lifelong learning - especially 18/19 year olds.

Adult, Literacy and Numeracy

Maybe changes to the amount of leisure activities offered by colleges

Use of niche marketing

Move into niche markets where appropriate

Training, MAs/Skillseekers etc

Greater matching of local and national missions

Response to changes

Demonstrate the proven results and publicise the sector better.

Maintain a wide curriculum.

Increase flexibility

Need to change the current funding models

Becoming more like Chief Executives in order to respond to the need to secure other sources of funding.

Better engagement in local and national political structures.

Better political representation of the sector - we can learn a lot from other sectors

Effect of school/college experiences for high numbers of young people on attitudes toward colleges

Full implementation and use of the SCQF.

Better relationship between colleges and Scottish Enterprise

Change the way we break up education at set points (primary, secondary, tertiary).

More political decisions which are transmitted through the guidance letter to the funding council.

Worst thing that could happen

Return to local authority control however colleges should only remain independent for the right reasons.

Return to national pay bargaining

A one size fits all approach.

Lose sight of the sector's mission

If we copy the English fragmented system.

Lose our ambition for our young people

Lose current political support

The development of a single tertiary education system

Micro management of the sector

Best Thing that could happen

If there was a complete change to the current funding models - balance of funding to meet skills demands and to attract people into education for social reasons.

Continue to grow in confidence

If the number of skill schemes was reduced and better managed.

The disbandment of Scottish Enterprise. Scottish Enterprise becoming more consistent. Colleges rather than Scottish Enterprise should shape Scotland's skills strategy.

Increase collaboration.

Improved community planning - reduce the amount of duplication of delivery of different organisations

Parity of esteem with the school and university sectors.

Colleges able to improve their ability to influence policy and political decisions.

Improvements made to the school system - need to address the root of problems with failing pupils

Some form of collective pay bargaining may be a good thing for the sector.

Investment in college staff so that they feel motivated.

Greater clarity over the role of the college