[SEETLLD CSFSG-P01]
REVIEW OF SCOTLAND'S COLLEGES
STEERING GROUP: COLLEGES' LONG TERM STRATEGIC FUTURE
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
(You can download a PDF version of this document by clicking here)
Purpose
1. To propose a process for considering colleges' long term strategic future.
Remit of the Working Group
2. The remit of the Review of Scotland's Colleges is to:
"provide Scottish Ministers with a robust evidence base, and where appropriate, informed recommendations for change, upon which sound decisions can be taken on how to fund and equip Scotland's colleges to meet future challenges and demands. In particular the review will:
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(d) examine the strategic future of Scotland's colleges in 10-15 years through a scenario analysis, and report on the implications of the range of likely scenarios. In considering these scenarios, examine possible changes in the key national, European and international environmental factors affecting learning and colleges. These might include, for example:
demographic change;
- economic change; societal and technological change;
- change in our expectations of the role and purpose of colleges;
- change in approaches to learning and teaching; and
- change in the 'learning market'."
Steering Group
3. The Working Group agreed that a Steering Group should be established to take decisions on the scenario development process. The Group's membership is:
Laurence Howells, Scottish Funding Council (Chair)
Raaj Bhatti, Further and Adult Education Division (Secretariat)
Bill Wardle, ASC
Gail Edwards, NUS Scotland
Grahame Smith, STUC
David Caldwell, Universities Scotland
Stuart King, Futureskills Scotland
Kish Srinivasan, HMIE
Hugh McAloon, Higher Education & Science Division
Col Baird, Further and Adult Education Division.
Scenario Development
4. The purpose, principles and approaches to futures work is outlined in a Cabinet Office Performance and Innovation Unit paper [1]published in 2001. Various methods are described along with their strengths and weaknesses. We consider that explorative scenarios would best meet the needs of the review because they provide enough 'space' to allow different views to be accommodated in the process. Although concern is expressed in the document that this approach "can be difficult to translate the outcome of a scenario process into concrete decisions", we believe this can be overcome as we would expect the Working Group to make recommendations to the Core Group (and subsequently Ministers) on short to medium measures based on the outcome of the scenario development.
5. We want the scenarios to be pictures of the future developed by those with an understanding of the sector to help predict the longer term.
6. The paper explains that a good scenario is:
Creative Unlike or different from the present
Consistent Probable
Concise Logical and profiled
Anchored Relevant, very clear on purpose and assumptions.
7. Explorative scenarios work from the present into the future by defining drivers that influence the future, assessing the importance and the uncertainty of those drivers, selecting the scenario logics, and outlining the scenarios. They are unlike normative scenarios where you begin with a vision in the future and outline ways back to the present that could realise that vision. Explorative scenarios are routine in planning and strategy. They can give early warning of risk and possibilities. That said, they can be deterministic.Explorative scenarios for the Review of Scotland's Colleges
Evidence Gathering
8. The Executive is organising a series of meetings with stakeholders to begin initial discussions about colleges' strategic future. This work will be complete in March 2006.
Drivers
9. Once the evidence is summarised and analysed, it will be necessary to identify the key drivers that would influence various scenarios. We suggest we hold in mid May a half-day workshop with Working Group members to consider the appropriate drivers. To be effective and to obtain depth to the discussions, we suggest the Working Group break into separate syndicates to discuss the drivers.
10. The Steering Group may wish to consider commissioning short 'think pieces' for each of the drivers to inform later stages of the process.
Scenarios
11. Having reflected on the outcomes of the earlier workshop, we suggest a further full day workshop of the Working Group in July, again breaking into separate syndicates, to:
o discuss around four likely scenarios from the viewpoint of the individual and economic and societal need;
o consider how the sector might respond to each of these; and
o identify what will be important under all scenarios and what will only be important under a subset of the scenarios
Options
12. Following the identification of scenarios, the Working Group would meet for a full day workshop in October, breaking into separate syndicate groups, to consider options to deal with issues of strategic importance to the sector over the next few years. In considering options, the Working Group will also need to consider impact on matters such as sustainability, race equality, and Closing the Opportunity Gap.
Recommendations
13. We aim to have an initial draft of the report of the Working Group ready for the group in November 2006.
14. The Working Group would then meet in December 2006 and January 2007 to agree the report.Steering Group
15. We suggest that the Steering Group meets several weeks before each workshop to discuss the format.
Timeline
16. A timeline for the process is attached as an annex.
Recommendations
17. We recommend:
a) developing four explorative scenarios;
b) workshops for Working Group members to develop:
- 'drivers' (1/2 day)
- 'scenarios' (full day)
- 'options' (full day);
c) each workshop breaks into syndicate groups to facilitate creative discussion;
d) the Steering Group meets several weeks before each workshop to discuss the format;
e) commissioning short 'think pieces' for each of the 'drivers'; and
f) the adoption of the timeline outlined in the annex.
Reviews Team:
Review of Scotland's Colleges
December 2005
ANNEX
PROPOSED TIMELINE FOR SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS
December 2005 - March 2006 Evidence Gathering
January 2006 Steering Group Meeting - Scenario Planning Process
April 2006 Steering Group Meeting-
Preparation for 'Drivers' Workshop
May 2006 'Drivers' Workshop of Working Group
May 2006 Commissioning of 'think pieces'
June 2006 Steering Group Meeting - Preparation for 'Scenarios' Workshop
July 2006 'Scenarios' Workshop of Working Group
September 2006 Steering Group Meeting - Preparation for 'Options' Workshop
October 2006 'Options' Workshop of Working Group
November 2006 Meeting of Working Group (initial draft of report)
December 2006 Meeting of Working Group (draft report)
January 2007 Meeting of Working Group (agree report) [1]www.strategy.gov.uk/downloads/files/toolbox.pdf