3. Leaver Destinations
3.1 Skills Development Scotland contact each young person they have identified as a school leaver in the September after they leave school and the following March. They ask the school leaver what they are doing and record their destination (HE, employment etc.). This information is used to inform 16+ Learning Choices3, amongst other things, and helps ensure that adequate support is provided for young people who may require help with entering and sustaining a positive destination. It is also used to monitor progress on the Scottish Government national indicator increasing the proportion of young people in learning, training or work (previously School leavers, from Scottish publicly funded schools, in positive and sustained destinations: Further Education ( FE), Higher Education ( HE), employment or training). This year the Scotland Performs website will be showing 'performance improving'.
Table 3. Percentage of school leavers by initial and follow up destination category, 2008/09 to 2010/11.
Column Percent (percentages may not total 100 due to rounding)
| 2008/09 | 2009/10 | 2010/11 |
| Initial | Follow Up | % point change | Initial | Follow Up | % point change | Initial | Follow Up | % point change |
| Destination Category |
| Higher Education | 34.9 | 33.6 | -1.3 | 35.7 | 33.7 | -2.0 | 35.8 | 34.0 | -1.8 |
| Further Education | 27.0 | 23.9 | -3.1 | 27.1 | 24.5 | -2.6 | 27.1 | 24.7 | -2.4 |
| Training | 5.1 | 4.4 | -0.7 | 5.2 | 3.4 | -1.8 | 5.6 | 3.5 | -2.1 |
| Employment | 18.4 | 22.9 | 4.5 | 18.5 | 23.1 | 4.6 | 19.3 | 24.0 | 4.7 |
| Voluntary Work | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Activity Agreement1 | | | | | | | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Unemployed seeking | 11.5 | 12.6 | 1.1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 1.0 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 0.9 |
| Unemployed Not Seeking | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Unknown | 1.2 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Positive Destinations | 85.7 | 85.1 | -0.6 | 86.8 | 85.2 | -1.6 | 88.9 | 87.2 | -1.7 |
| Number of Leavers | 53,532 | 53,324 | | 54,097 | 53,842 | | 54,073 | 53,850 | |
1. In April 2011 the Scottish Government rolled out the use of Activity Agreements.
2. Leavers who moved outwith Scotland, were deceased or who had returned to school between the initial and follow up survey were excluded.
3.2 In April 2011 the Scottish Government rolled out the use of Activity Agreements to improve the employability of vulnerable and disadvantaged young people. These include elements of training, volunteering, learning in various community settings and other developmental activities. These are recorded as a separate category as they do not fit into any of the existing groups. They accounted for 0.6 per cent of school leavers in March 2012 (Table 3).
3.3 In September 2011 88.9 per cent of school leavers, from the academic year 2010/11, were in positive destinations. By March 2012 this had decreased to 87.2 per cent. This is higher than the 85.2 per cent in March 2011 (Table 3). This decrease of 1.7 percentage points between September and March was similar to that seen the previous year, which was 1.6 percentage points, but was smaller than that seen for the 2007/08 leavers at 2.4 percentage points.
3.4 The majority of school leavers entered Higher and Further Education (63.0 per cent) in the September after leaving school, with 19.3 per cent entering Employment and under 11 per cent being Unemployed (Table 3). This represents the highest proportion of school leavers in Higher and Further Education and the third lowest in Employment since comparable records began. A time series of initial destinations, going back to the early 1990s, is available in the supplementary data.
3.5 By March 2012 the proportion of leavers in Higher Education and Further Education had decreased by 4.3 percentage points, while the proportion in Employment had increased by 4.7 percentage points (Table 3).
3.6 Monitoring where a young person goes on leaving school and where they are several months later gives an indication of their long term prospects and which young people may require help in maintaining a positive destination. The extent to which leavers remain in a destination category varies. The vast majority of school leavers who entered Higher Education (92.8 per cent) in September 2011 were still there the following March, while there was more movement in other destination categories, for example training (Table 4). The nature and duration of Training can differ and as a result individuals' outcomes are not always the same. Similarly, the disproportionate impact of the recession on young people doesn't always allow for smooth progression.
Table 4. Percentage of school leavers who sustained a destination or moved into another destination category, 2010/11.
Number of School leavers, Row Percent (percentages may not total 100 due to rounding)
| Number of School Leavers in the Initial Survey | Remained in their original destination | Follow Up Destination |
| Moved to Higher Education | Moved to Further Education | Moved to Training | Became Employed | Entered Voluntary Work | Entered into an Activity Agreement | Became Unemployed Seeking | Became Unemployed Not Seeking | Unknown |
| Initial Destination |
| Higher Education | 19,374 | 92.8 | | 2.2 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Further Education | 14,677 | 83.6 | 1.5 | | 2.1 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Training | 3,025 | 23.1 | 0.0 | 5.4 | | 30.4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 37.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Employment | 10,447 | 88.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | | 0.3 | * | 7.1 | 0.6 | * |
| Voluntary Work | 260 | 58.3 | 1.9 | * | 3.9 | 20.1 | | * | 8.9 | 2.3 | * |
| Activity Agreement | 280 | 41.4 | 0.0 | * | 19.6 | 4.3 | * | | 25.7 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Unemployed Seeking | 5,184 | 48.1 | 0.6 | 4.8 | 12.5 | 24.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Unemployed Not Seeking | 662 | 74.2 | * | 3.1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | * | 1.5 | 9.7 | | * |
| Unknown | 164 | 44.5 | * | 16.8 | 3.9 | 15.5 | * | 0.0 | 12.9 | 3.2 | |
| Number1 of Leavers in the Follow Up Survey | 53,850 | | 18,298 | 13,293 | 1,860 | 12,925 | 285 | 312 | 5,642 | 898 | 337 |
1. 223 leavers who moved outwith Scotland, were deceased or who had returned to school between the initial and follow up survey were excluded.
2. * Percentages based on small numbers have been suppressed for disclosure and quality reasons.
3.7 The majority of school leavers are in the same positive destination (74.8 per cent) in March 2012 as they entered in September 2011 (Table 5). Small proportions moved from a positive destination to a negative destination (6.3 per cent) and from a negative destination to a positive one (4.6 per cent) (Table 5).
Table 5. Percentage of school leavers who sustained or moved destination, by age1 2010/11.
Column Percent (percentages may not total 100 due to rounding)
| Age on 30th June 2011 |
| 16 or under | 17 | 18+ | All Leavers2 |
| Destination Category |
| Same positive destination in both | 58.6 | 82.5 | 84.9 | 74.8 |
| Positive destination to another positive destination | 10.1 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 7.8 |
| Positive destination to a negative destination | 12.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 6.3 |
| Negative destination to a positive destination | 7.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 4.6 |
| Negative destination in both | 11.8 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 6.4 |
| Number of leavers | 18,312 | 23,526 | 11,880 | 53,850 |
1. 137 leavers were excluded from the age analysis on the basis that a robust match to the Pupil Census was not made.
2. This percentage is based on all leavers except those who moved outwith Scotland, were deceased or who had returned to school between the initial and follow up survey, they were excluded.
3.8 The proportion of leavers staying in a positive destination increases with age. Over 68 per cent of those aged 16 or under were in a positive destination in September and the following March, compared to over 89 per cent of 17 year-olds (Table 5). This will be linked to older school leavers staying on longer at school, attaining higher levels of qualifications and entering Higher Education, which has been shown to be a very sustainable destination.