April 2010
ISBN 978 0 7559 9301 7 (Web only publication)
This document is also available in pdf format (1.8Mb)
Contents
Authorship
Conflicts of interest
Acknowledgments
Executive summary
Scope of research
Summary of model findings
1Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Research questions addressed
2Methods
2.1 Prices
2.1.1 Off-trade price distribution
2.1.2 On-trade price distribution
2.1.3 Off-trade price-based promotion
2.2 Consumption
2.2.1 Scottish Health Survey
2.2.2 SALSUS
2.2.3 Regression model linking mean consumption to peak consumption
2.3 Health harms
2.4 Crime harms
2.5 Workplace harms
2.6 Sensitivity analysis
2.6.1 Preferences for off-trade consumption
3Results
3.1 Estimated impacts
3.1.1 Example policy analysis: 40p minimum price (scenario 4)
3.1.2 Example policy analysis: Off-trade discount ban (scenario 11)
3.1.3 Example policy analysis: 40p minimum price combined with off-trade discount ban (scenario 15)
3.1.4 Summary tables of pricing policies - Total Scotland population
3.1.5 Comparison with previous results
3.1.6 Summary tables for consumption analysis of pricing policies by population sub-group
3.1.7 Summary tables for health, crime and employment harms by population sub-group
3.1.8 Summary tables for financial value of harm reductions by population sub-group
3.2 Sensitivity analyses
3.2.1 Probabilistic sensitivity analysis
3.2.2 Moderate versus heavy drinkers
3.2.3 Preferences for off-trade versus on-trade consumption
3.2.4 Protective effects of alcohol for coronary heart disease
3.2.5 Alternative crime AFs
4Summary of Results and Discussion
4.1 Summary of model findings
4.2 Limitations
4.2.1 Limitations in the model of the relationship between price and consumption
4.2.2 Limitations in the model of the relationship between consumption and harmful outcomes
4.3 Areas for possible future research
References
Appendices
Appendix 1: Original English and mapped Scottish price ranges, used to estimate a price-based promotion distribution for Scotland
Appendix 2: Age/gender consumption distribution from the SHeS (2008) - Descriptive statistics
Appendix 3: Statistical regression model: relationship between the scale of the binge and the mean daily consumption
Appendix 4: Risk functions for health conditions
Appendix 5: Estimated number of offences per annum, by offence category, gender and age group
Appendix 6: Slope of relative risk functions, split by offence category and OCJS gender and age sub-groups
Appendix 7: Slope for relative risk functions for absenteeism and unemployment, split by gender and age group
Appendix 8: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis - moderate versus heavy drinkers
Appendix 9: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis - protective effects of alcohol for CHD
Appendix 10: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis - higher crime AAFs
Appendix 11: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis - lower crime AAFs
Appendix 12: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis - Nielsen-based preference for off-trade