The Scottish Government

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ANNEX B

ENERGY DEMAND AND TARGETS

The table below reports forecasts of final energy demand in the period to 2020, and presents this data broken down by sector ⁹. The trend is an overall reduction in energy demand between 2005 and 2020 of over 4%; this is driven by assumptions of existing measures to improve energy efficiency.

Table: Scottish Final Energy Consumption by Demand Sector

A comparison of final energy demand for the main sectors in 2005 and 2020 is illustrated by the following pie charts, which highlights the reduction expected in the domestic and services sectors in contrast to the increases in the transport and industry sectors.

Figure 7 Composition of Final Energy Demand by Sector ( CC scenario)

Based on Scottish Energy Study: Volume 5, Table 11

Scotland's Targets

Scotland is currently committed to achieve a headline target of 20% of total Scottish energy use coming from renewables sources by 2020.

To achieve this energy target, individual targets on renewable electricity, heat and transport have been put in place:

• Electricity - Achieve 50% of gross electricity consumption from renewable sources by 2020, with an interim target of 31% by 2011.
• Transport - To achieve a 10% target for renewable transport by 2020. (In line with a mandatory 10% EU target set for each member state).
• Heat - Significant role for heat in overall energy targets (heat demand accounts for a large proportion of all energy use); target has been set at 11% of heat energy to be supplied from renewable sources by 2020.

The following chart provides some additional analysis to highlight how each of the above sectors are progressing towards their 2020 renewable targets ¹⁰.

Figure 8 Current Progress Towards 2020 Energy Targets

The Renewable Electricity Target

The target for renewable electricity generation is calculated as a percentage of Gross Electricity Consumption and was set at 50% of Gross Electricity Consumption by 2020. The table below reports the progression of renewable technologies over an 8 year period to 2007, year-to-year fluctuations can be observed in Gross Electricity Consumption however there has been little change over the period. However the target will be measured against the gross electricity consumption that occurs in the year 2020.

Table: Electricity Consumption Trends in Scotland

Renewable Transport Target

The European Council recognise that the starting point, the renewable energy potential and the energy mix of each Member State varies. It is therefore necessary to translate the Community 20% energy target into individual targets for each Member State. By contrast, it is appropriate for the 10% target for energy from renewable sources in transport to be set at the same level for each Member State in order to ensure consistency in transport fuel specifications and availability. In line with the European Directive ¹¹, Scotland has set its renewable transport target at mandatory 10% minimum target for the share of biofuels in transport petrol and diesel consumption by 2020.

Renewable Heat Target

The renewable heat target was estimated ex-post and when setting the renewable heat target it was forecast that 32,061 GWh of renewable energy would be required to meet the 20% target in 2020. Making assumptions that renewable electricity and transport would provide 22,244 GWh and 3,397 GWh respectively, the remainder - 6,420 GWh - must come from heat. This level of output equated to a renewable heat target of c. 11% in 2020. Figure 3 below illustrates estimated shares of annual heat energy consumption; it demonstrates that over half of the heat usage currently is from the domestic sector.

Figure 9 Split of Scottish Heat Energy Demand

Forum for Renewable Energy Development in Scotland, Scotland's Renewable Heat Strategy, 2008

Energy Efficiency

Energy efficiency offers a way to resolve the apparent tension between the traditional goal of economic growth and environmental targets. DECC research has suggested energy efficiency and behavioural changes can have a significant impact in reducing energy demand ¹². This is supportive of European objectives to reduce projected energy consumption by 20% in 2020.

In terms of electricity targets, a reduction in domestic electricity usage (as a result of energy efficiency measures) will allow for more electricity to be exported rather than being consumed for domestic purposes. The definition of gross electricity consumption is total electricity generated minus exports plus imports. Increased implementation of energy efficiency measures therefore could reduce gross electricity consumption, which will make the renewable electricity target for 2020 easier to achieve. Improving energy efficiency is widely recognised as the easiest and most cost-effective means of reducing carbon dioxide emissions and needs to be pursued in parallel with measures to increase renewable energy use.

Glossary

AD - Anaerobic Digestion

AFRC - Advanced Forming Research Centre ( University of Strathclyde)

ANSP - Air Navigation Service Providers

BERR - Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform

BIC - British Irish Council

BWEA - British Wind Energy Association

CAR - Water Environment (Controlled Activities) Scotland

CARES - Community and Renewable Energy Scheme

CCS - Carbon Capture Storage

CES - Community Energy Scotland

CHP - Combined Heat and Power

DECC - Department for Energy and Climate Change ( UK Government)

DH - District Heating

DOWNVinD - Distant Offshore Wind No Visual Intrusion in Deepwater

EAB - Energy Advisory Board

EFT - Environmental Transformation Fund

EIA - Environmental Impact Assessment

EMEC - European Marine Energy Centre

ENSG - Electricity Networks Strategy Group

ESCO - Energy Service Company

ETI - Energy Technologies Institute

ETP - Energy Technology Partnership

EUOEA - European Ocean Energy Association

EfW - Energy from Waste

FCS - Forestry Commission Scotland

FREDS - Forum for Renewable Energy Development Scotland

HIE - Highlands and Islands Enterprise

ITI - Intermediary Technology Institutes

LCV - Low Carbon Vehicle

MEG - Marine Energy Group

MESPG - Marine Energy Spatial Planning Group

MSSF - Marine Strategic Studies Forum

NAREC - New and Renewable Energy Centre

NATS - National Air Traffic Services

NSAP - National Skills Academy for Power

OWID - Offshore Wind Industry Group

OfWID - Offshore Wind Delivery Group

Ofgem - Office for Gas and Electricity Markets

PAN - Planning Advice Note

PNDC - Power Networks Demonstration Centre

PSSSG - Power Sector Skills Strategy Group

RAP - Renewables Action Plan

RBAN - Regional Biomass Advice Network

RDD&D - Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment

REF - Renewable Energy Framework

REPG - Renewable Energy Project Group

RESG - Renewable Energy Skills Group ( UK Government)

RHAP - Renewable Heat Action Plan

RO - Renewables Obligation

RSPB - Royal Society for the Protection of Birds

SAMS - Scottish Association for Marine Science

SBHS - Scottish Biomass Heat Scheme

SCHRI - Scottish Community and Householders Renewables Initiative

SDC - Sustainable Development Commission

SDI - Scottish Development International

SDS - Skills Development Scotland

SEn - Scottish Enterprise

SEA - Strategic Environmental Assessment

SEGEC - Scottish and European Green Energy Centre

SEPA - Scottish Environmental Protection Agency

SHFCRP - Scottish Hydrogen Fuel Cell Research Programme

SNH - Scottish Natural Heritage

SQA - Scottish Qualifications Authority

SRDP - Scottish Rural Development Programme

SSC - Sector Skills Council

STW - Scottish Territorial Waters

TAR - Transmission Access Review

WATES - Wave and Tidal Energy Support Scheme

WFD - Water Framework Directive

WRAP - Waste and Resources Action Programme

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