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7 Discussion
7.1 This study set out to explore three questions using time-series datasets based on the Scottish School Leavers Surveys:
1. How has the context of secondary schooling changed over the period 1985-2005?
2. How have young people's school experiences and attainments changed over this period?
3. To what extent have inequalities in attainment changed over this period?
Changing context
7.2 Secondary schools in Scotland - and society more generally - have had to adapt to major changes in socio-economic conditions over the past two decades. In the early 1980s half of young people were expected to leave school at age 16, with only the more academic pupils remaining in post-compulsory education. In subsequent years, as opportunities for young people to enter employment and training declined, schools had to cater for increasing levels of participation by students with varying levels of prior attainment.
7.3 Curriculum and qualification systems have been adapted to meet the needs of a wider ability range. In the early 1980s the qualification systems at Ordinary and Higher Grade were aimed at the top of the ability range. Over the 1980s and 1990s opportunities for young people to gain qualifications were widened - first the Standard Grade reforms provided certification for all abilities at age 16 (Gamoran 1996) and then the Higher Still reforms provided a flexible framework for post-16 qualifications (Raffe et al 2007).
Changing experience and outcomes
7.4 In the light of these reforms, it is not surprising that overall levels of participation and attainment have risen considerably over time. The SSLS data display clear upward trends in attainment, and decline in the proportion of young people with no qualifications. However, the school system still focuses on academic attainment, and there is strong polarisation between high and low attainers. Recent research on the effects of Higher Still reforms shows poorer pass-rates among students with lower prior attainment in spite of the provision of more appropriate courses (Raffe et al 2007).
7.5 The effect of low attainment on young people's life chances can be very severe. Although the current study does not look at trends in post-school outcomes, these issues have been analysed in previous studies based on SSLS (Biggart 2000, Howieson 2003, Raffe 2003). In particular, Howieson and Iannelli (2008) show the negative effects of low Standard Grade attainment on employment and income at age 22/23. The Scottish Government has developed policies seeking to reduce the numbers of young people who are not in employment, education or training (Scottish Executive 2006), and Education Maintenance Allowances help young people from low income families to continue their education after the age of 16 (Croxford et al 2002, 2005). Nevertheless, the post-compulsory stages are too late to tackle the underlying causes of low attainment which have their roots at earlier stages of education. The Scottish Government's focus on providing for the development needs of children in the early years is an important policy to address these problems (Scottish Government 2009).
7.6 Although the SSLS does not have consistent time-series data on attitudes, the views about school experiences expressed by the more recent cohorts are remarkably positive. Even among lower-attaining pupils the majority have positive perceptions of the usefulness of school. Nevertheless, there is a substantial minority of young people who feel that school has done little to prepare them for life when they leave school.
Changing inequalities
7.7 Gender differences in attainment have increasingly been a focus of media attention in recent years, because statistics have revealed that young men have slightly lower attainment at school than young women. The SSLS time series shows that the gender gap was already evident in the 1984 cohort and thus pre-dated the Standard grade reforms. Thus, the evidence from SSLS counteracts suggestions by some researchers that the female advantage was created by the introduction of course work to the assessment system (Dolton et al 1999). The gender gap has increased over time - especially with respect to age 18/19. Experiences of school are gendered in other ways also, especially in terms of curriculum choices which have implications for future career opportunities (Tinklin 1999, Croxford 2003).
7.8 It may be that the aspirations and attainments of young women in Scotland are influenced by the restructuring of the labour market in favour of white-collar work and changing perceptions of gender issues in society. In addition, there are changing roles within the families of these young women, as an increasing proportion of their mothers are engaged in the labour market and in higher status occupations.
7.9 However, at a time when females have higher average attainment, those young women who do not achieve good qualifications at school are in a relatively worse situation than their male counterparts. Research based on the SSLS shows that low attaining young women have poorer labour market outcomes than low attaining young men (Biggart 2000, Howieson 2003, Raffe 2003).
7.10 The OECD review of Scottish education has highlighted the problems of social class inequalities ( OECD 2007). In the past, less attention has been paid to social class than gender inequalities - possibly because statistics are less readily available. While advances have been made in the use of administrative data for analysis, these do not provide data on social class. Until now, the SSLS has provided an important source of evidence about social class inequalities in education and youth transitions, but suffers problems of measurement errors and potential non-response bias. In spite of the imperfections of SSLS data, they provide a consistent picture of changes in social class inequalities in attainment over the period 1985-2005. Since the Scottish Government has decided not to continue these surveys, in future there will be less opportunity to analyse social class inequalities in Scottish education.
7.11 Findings from this study confirm those of the EYT study that social class inequalities at age 16 have diminished slightly since 1998 as the attainment of working class pupils has risen (Croxford and Raffe 2007, Raffe et al 2006). Raffe suggests that the reduction in inequality at the age 16 stage is associated with the expansion of Standard Grade to almost universal participation and attainment (Raffe et al 2006). The current study includes other measures of inequality associated with family background, including parents education and economic activity - which at age 16 present similar trends of reduced inequality. It is interesting to find that as the proportion of educated parents has increased, the advantage accruing to parents' education has declined.
7.12 However, social class inequalities in attainment at age 18/19 are rising over time as pupils of higher social class status have increased their levels of advantage in qualifications. We note also that while inequalities associated with parental education and economic activity diminished at Standard Grade, they did not diminish with respect to qualifications at age 18/19.
7.13 Differences between schools in their intake characteristics are associated with social segregation, and create a further source of inequality. This study has shown that social segregation between schools is greatest in city areas where there tends to be more segregated housing - schools in large public housing schemes are likely to have more working class pupils, while other schools are located in more middle class areas - this is sometimes called "selection by mortgage". There has been considerable debate as to whether social segregation has been exacerbated by parental choice, but there is no clear evidence to support this view.
7.14 This study has examined the effects on young peoples attainment of attending schools with different intake characteristics. On average, they have higher levels of attainment if they attend schools with a high proportion of managerial/professional pupils. Over time, the advantage with respect to attainment at 16 diminished, and this is in line with the declining effect of pupils' own social class background. Conversely, the advantage accruing to high social class schools at age 18/19 is largely unchanged. Independent schools have unusual intake characteristics with a very high proportion of students with managerial/professional parents, and they have an additional effect on attainment at age 18/19 which did not change over time.
7.15 The different trends in inequality at ages 16 and 18/19 provide support for the suggestion of Raffe at al (2006) that increasing levels of attainment and participation at age 16 have pushed the critical period for educational inequalities up to age 18 and entry to higher education. In conclusion, the past two decades have witnessed major changes in the context of secondary schooling and substantial increases in attainment. However, underlying social inequalities within the system remain as powerful as ever.
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