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6 Inequalities by gender, family background, school characteristics and location

6.1 Inequalities in Scottish education have been highlighted as a challenge by a recent high-profile review carried out by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD). It found that although Scottish education has many strengths, and performs at a very high standard in the Programme of International Student Assessment ( PISA), there are serious inequalities associated with socio-economic status, poverty and deprivation ( OECD 2007, p15).

6.2 This section draws on SSLS to provide further evidence of inequalities in young people's experiences of education in Scotland. It starts by summarising recent research findings relating to inequalities in education and youth transitions. It then presents new analyses of inequalities in attainment by gender and social class, and the extent to which they have changed over the period 1985-2005.

Evidence from recent SSLS special studies and the EYT project

6.3 Biggart (2000) analysed issues of gender and low achievement . He confirmed that females were less likely to be low attainers than males, and that low S4 attainment is associated with social background and neighbourhood deprivation. However, he found that - contrary to media speculation - negative attitudes to education were not associated with low attainment. Although only a minority of low attainers were female, the labour-market consequences of low attainment for young women are more severe than for young men.

6.4 Howieson (2003) explored the transitions and outcomes of young people who left school at age 16 - the end of the compulsory stages. She found that low attainment not only increases the chances of early leaving, it also influences early leavers' post-school prospects. Low attainers were the ones most likely to experience unemployment and to have unstable post-school careers. Compared with other early leavers, they also had a poorer chance of adding to their qualifications, and those in employment had poorer prospects of training. Although young women were less likely to be early leavers, those who did leave school early had poorer outcomes than their male counterparts, despite their higher average attainment. The study also found that Skillseekers has transformed government-supported training, and as a consequence may have excluded some lower-attaining young people - especially females. There was an increase in the proportion of early leavers neither in the labour market nor in education that coincided with the widespread implementation of Skillseekers.

6.5 Raffe (2003) focused on young people who were not in education, employment or training ( NEET). He found that on average NEET young people had lower S4 attainments, had truanted more and had less favourable attitudes to school. Young people who were unemployed or looking after child or home tended to have less advantaged social and educational backgrounds; they tended to be NEET for longer periods of time, and to be vulnerable to further spells of NEET. Despite better average qualifications and higher prior participation in education, females remained NEET for longer, and a gender gap opened as the cohort grew older. More females looked after child or home, or took part-time jobs, but fewer were unemployed.

6.6 Howieson and Iannelli (2007) traced the transitions of a cohort of young people from the end of compulsory schooling, and found that "Low attainers had poorer labour market outcomes even at age 22-23: a smaller proportion of them were in full-time employment and they were more likely to be unemployed or in part-time employment". They also found a negative effect of low attainment on occupational status and average weekly earnings compared with other young people in employment. Amongst the low-attaining group, women appear to be more disadvantaged than men - a quarter of female low attainers were neither in employment nor the labour market at age 22-23.

6.7 At the other end of the scale, Tinklin (1999) focused on high-attaining female school leavers. She confirmed that there was a strong relationship between social advantage and high attainment: those with fathers in non-manual occupations, who had educated and home-owning parents, and who attended independent schools enjoyed distinct advantages at several stages of their school careers. But, while social advantage is strongly linked to high attainment, it does not shed any light on the female advantage in attainment: working-class girls did better than their male counterparts, just as middle-class girls attained more highly than middle-class boys. The only factor which goes some way towards "explaining" male and female differences in attainment was that girls took school more seriously than boys. There was evidence to suggest, however, that gender differences in subject choice at school have an important impact on later attainment and opportunities - and that the focus by girls on arts and social sciences subjects reduced their opportunities in higher education and employment.

6.8 The issue of subject choice was explored further by Croxford (2003) who analysed participation in science, engineering and technology. She found that having science qualifications at Higher Grade boosted chances of entering a degree course. Even amongst those with science qualifications, and after taking account of attainment, there were gender differences in higher education courses entered: females were less likely than males to study mathematics, informatics and engineering, but more likely to study medicine, dentistry or subjects allied to medicine.

6.9 Tinklin and Raffe (1999) studied the factors influencing entry to higher education in the early 1990s. They found that social-class differences in entrance to higher education narrowed during the expansion of the late 1980s and early 1990s, but leavers from middle class backgrounds were still more than twice as likely to enter higher education in 1993. Class inequalities in school-leaver entry to higher education largely reflect inequalities in school attainments, rather than the immediate impact of the higher education selection process. They also found that female school leavers were less likely than males with equivalent qualifications to enter higher education.

Changing inequalities over time

6.10 For the EYT project, Croxford and Raffe (2007) analysed trends in attainment at age 16 in England, Wales and Scotland to explore the impact of different policies. They found that over a period of policy divergence, when England developed a strong market regime while Scottish policy changed much less, there was a parallel divergence in levels of social-class inequality: social-class inequalities narrowed in Scotland but did not do so in England. However, they are cautious in interpreting these trends in relation to market regimes, and suggest that the narrowing of inequalities in Scotland may be partly attributable to the reforms of curriculum and assessment associated with the introduction of Standard Grades.

6.11 Raffe et al (2006) investigated inequalities in levels of participation and attainment at ages 16 and 18+ and their relationship to educational expansion. They found that, in general, levels of inequality tend to be lower as the proportion achieving the outcome increases (although these trends are seen to be erratic in the short term). The later stages and higher levels of education tend to be more socially selective. Within each Scottish cohort the class gap was wider at 18 than at 16 years. By the late 1990s inequalities at age 18 were substantially wider in Scotland than in England. Inequalities in participation in higher education initially rose as higher education expanded in the early 1990s, but then fell to a level lower in 2001 than in the 1980s.
They were consistently higher in Scotland than in England.

New analysis of inequalities over time

6.12 The focus of the current study is the extent to which inequalities in attainment have changed over the period 1985-2005. The measures analysed are derived from comparable ⁹ measures of:

• attainment at age 16 - the Standard Grade point score;
• attainment at 18/19 - the UCAS tariff score.

6.13 In order to explore change over time in the effects of a number of different factors, the time-series data are analysed using multivariate linear regression models (see Appendix 2). The effect of each factor is measured after controlling for all other factors in the model.

Inequalities in attainment at age 16

6.14 The model, summarised in Table 6.1 and detailed in Appendix 2, shows the following factors influence S4 attainment.

Year

6.15 Results of the statistical model confirm an upward trend in attainment over time. However, the increase in attainment was steeper in the early period and levelled off for later cohorts.

Sex

6.16 On average females achieved more than males, and the female advantage increased over time. Thus the gap associated with gender widened very slightly over the two decades.

6.17 These trends are illustrated in Figure 6.1 by the average point score achieved by each sex at Standard Grade from the time-series data. The trends in Figure 6.1 are not as smooth as those suggested by the model, because the survey data for different cohorts fluctuate.

Social Class

6.18 There are substantial differences in attainment between the classes: pupils from managerial/professional backgrounds had the highest achievement; those from the intermediate class had attainment lower by a small but significant amount; working class and unclassified had substantially lower attainment. Over time the attainment gap between intermediate and managerial/professional students did not change. However, the attainment gap between working class and managerial/professional students reduced slightly over time. Similarly, differences between unclassified students and managerial/professional students reduced over time.

Figure 6.1

Figure 6.2

6.19 These social class trends in attainment are illustrated in Figure 6.2 in terms of the average point score achieved by each class at Standard Grade from the time-series data. In 1984, pupils with managerial & professional parents achieved 32 points on average compared with working class pupils who scored 16 points on average, and pupils for whom parental occupation could not be classified, who scored 10 points on average. All social classes shared in increasing levels of attainment between 1984 and 2002, but the gaps between them narrowed only slightly. In 2002, pupils from managerial & professional classes scored 44 points on average compared with 34 points and 28 points for working class and unclassified pupils respectively.

Figure 6.3

6.20 Both gender and social class make a difference to average attainment at Standard grade, and this is illustrated by Figure 6.3. Within each social class, average attainment by females exceeds average attainment by males.

Parents' education

6.21 An important factor in children's education is their parents' educational level. The model (Appendix 2 and Table 6.1) confirms that there is a positive effect on their children's Standard Grade attainment of both father's and mother's post-compulsory education. However, the advantage associated with parents education decreased over time.

Parents' main activity

6.22 Previous studies have suggested that parents' main economic activity may have an additional effect on pupils' attainment. Specifically, two aspects of parents' main activity - father unemployed and mother full-time unpaid in the home - have been found in previous analyses to influence attainment. The model confirms that having a mother full-time unpaid in the home is associated with higher attainment but this advantage decreased over time. On the other hand, having a father unemployed is associated with lower attainment, and this disadvantage decreased over time.

Family structure

6.23 Family structure also has effects on pupils attainment, and the model compares the average attainment of young people living with step parents, lone parents or in "other" arrangements ¹⁰ with the attainment of young people living with both of their natural parents. In each case, family structures other than living with both natural parents are associated with lower attainment on average. However, the negative effect of living with a step parent diminished over the period while the negative effect of living in "other" arrangements was exacerbated over time.

School type and socio-economic characteristics

6.24 Schools vary in the socio-economic characteristics of their pupil intakes - this is shown by the segregation indices described in Section 3. Three measures are included in the models in order to estimate the changing effects of school characteristics on attainment. The first indicates independent fee-paying schools compared with state-funded schools. Two other measures are derived from the percentage of pupils in the school with managerial/professional parents, and the percentage with working-class parents. These differences in school context influence the attainments of pupils attending each school - over and above all other factors in the model.

6.25 The model (Appendix 2) shows that on average the Standard Grade points score was lower in independent schools than in state-funded schools, and this did not change over time. It is possible, however, that some of this difference in attainment can be explained by independent schools presenting their pupils for English qualifications such as GCSE that are not included in the Standard grade point score. Another explanation may be that the advantage associated with independent schools is derived from the high social-class intake of the pupils - and this is controlled for by the background factors included in the model.

6.26 Attending a school with a high percentage of managerial/professional pupils boosted pupils Standard Grade attainment. However, this advantage decreased over time.

6.27 Attending a school with a high proportion of working class pupils led to slightly lower attainment on average. This disadvantage did not change over time.

School location

6.28 The measure of school location has six categories, as shown by Figure 2.1 in Section 2. The largest category is "four cities". The statistical model explored the extent to which school location influenced attainment. It found no difference in attainment between pupils attending city schools, schools in other urban areas, and schools in accessible town and rural areas. However, pupils attending schools in remote areas have higher average Standard Grade scores than pupils in city schools. There was some divergence in the pattern of results for remote areas over time - while the attainment advantage accruing to pupils in remote towns did not change, the advantage of pupils in remote rural schools increased.

Table 6.1: Summary of inequalities at age 16

Inequalities in attainment at age 18

6.29 Attainment at age 18 is measured in terms of the UCAS tariff score. ¹¹ The UCAS tariff is based on academic qualifications, and is used here because it offers comparability over time. The UCAS tariff underestimates overall attainment because it does not include vocational qualifications, but unfortunately information about more vocational qualifications has not been collected in a consistent manner by SSLS.

Overall trends over time

6.30 On average the UCAS tariff score increased each year, but the increase in attainment was steeper in the later period than for earlier cohorts - suggesting that the increase in attainment has accelerated.

Sex

6.31 On average females achieved more than males, and the female advantage increased over time. Thus the gap associated with gender widened over the two decades.

Social class

6.32 Social class inequality in attainment of the UCAS tariff is very strong: managerial/ professional students have a marked advantage at age 18. Compared with managerial/professional students, all other social classes had substantially lower average attainment. Over time, these inequalities increased still further.

6.33 These trends are illustrated in Figure 6.4 by the average UCAS tariff score achieved by each sex and social class from the time-series data. The trends in Figure 6.4 are not as smooth as those suggested by the model, because the survey data for different cohorts fluctuate, whereas the model averages out the fluctuations to estimate overall trends. However, they illustrate the following differential trends:

• the accelerating rise in attainment from 1999 onwards (which may be associated with the introduction of new NQ as a result of the Higher Still reforms);
• the widening gender gap in favour of females;
• the widening social class gap in favour of managerial/professional students.

6.34 However, the last data point in Figure 6.4 appears to indicate a dramatic rise in average attainment among the lower social class pupils between 2001 and 2005, and consequent reduction in the social class gap. This appears to provide evidence of a beneficial effect of the Higher Still reforms.

Figure 6.4

Parents' education

6.35 The education experienced by parents is a strong factor influencing students attainment at age 18. On average, students achieved higher UCAS tariff scores if their father and mother had some post-compulsory education. Over time, the advantage associated with father's post-compulsory education did not change, but the advantage associated with mother's post-compulsory education was reduced.

Parents' main activity

6.36 Students whose mothers had been full-time unpaid in the home at S4 had higher average attainment at age 18 and this advantage did not change over time.

6.37 Those whose fathers had been unemployed at S4 had lower average attainment at age 18 and this disadvantage did not change over time.

Family structure

6.38 At age 18, there were disadvantages in attainment associated with having step parents, lone parents and other living arrangements in S4. Over time the disadvantage of having a step-parent did not change, but the disadvantage of having a lone parent or other living arrangements got worse.

School type and socio-economic characteristics

6.39 Students from independent schools have higher average UCAS scores than students from state-funded schools and the advantage accruing to independent schools did not diminish over time. The difference in effect of independent schools at age 18 compared with age 16 is probably because more take Scottish qualifications at age 18 as entry qualifications for Higher Education.

6.40 Students attending schools which had a high proportion of managerial/professional students also had higher average UCAS tariff scores and this advantage did not diminish over time. Schools with a high proportion of working class students did not differ from the average in their attainment at age 18.

School location

6.41 Students attending schools in urban areas and accessible towns had lower average UCAS scores than their counterparts in city schools. These differences did not change over time. In contrast to their higher performance at Standard Grade, there was no advantage accruing to students attending remote schools at age 18 (but note that students attending remote schools may have to move school and live away from home during the post-compulsory stages).

Table 6.2: Summary of inequalities at age 18

Summary

6.42 The SSLS provides a unique resource for analysing inequalities in young people's experiences of education and youth transitions in Scotland. Previous studies have identified inequalities in curriculum, attainment, post-16 participation, entry to higher education and experiences in the labour market.

6.43 The current study builds on this work, and focuses on the extent to which inequalities in attainment at ages 16 and 18/19 have changed over time.

6.44 All other things being equal, females had higher attainment than males at age 16 and at age 18, and the gender gap for both age groups increased over time.

6.45 Social class is the greatest source of inequality in attainment. Over time the effect of social class on attainment has been reduced at age 16, but has increased at age 18. However, there is some indication that the Higher still reforms may have had a positive effect on the attainment of lower social class students.

6.46 Other aspects of family background, such as parents' education and main activity, have additional effects on attainment; over time the effect of most of these factors has been reduced at age 16, but has remained (more or less) the same at age 18.

6.47 School intake characteristics - especially the proportion of students from managerial/professional families - have additional effects on the attainment of students attending the school; over time the effect of school intake has been reduced at age 16, but has remained the same at age 18.

6.48 At age 16, schools in remote areas have higher average attainment than schools in cities, urban areas and accessible areas, and the advantage of remote rural schools increased over time. At age 18 the pattern was different, with schools in the four big cities having higher average attainment than other schools; this advantage of city schools did not change over time.

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