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5 Overall trends in attainment and participation

5.1 This section summarises the overall trends in young people's attainment in national examinations, ⁶ perceptions of school experiences, and their participation in post-compulsory education.

Attainment in national examinations at age 16

5.2 Attainment in national examinations at age 16 is a crucial outcome of compulsory schooling which affects young people's life chances (Howieson and Iannelli 2008). Figure 5.1 illustrates the rising levels of Ordinary/Standard grade attainment by young people at the end of S4. The area at the bottom of the chart represents the percentage of each cohort in the highest attainment category, who achieved five or more awards at Credit level. In 1984, just 18% of the first SSLS cohort achieved five or more awards at the equivalent of Credit level, but this proportion had more than doubled by the most recent cohort in 2002 (37%). Similarly, the proportion in the next band of attainment, who gained at least five awards at general/credit (but not 5+ credit) more than doubled from 22% in 1984 to 45% in 2002. On the other hand, the proportion of young people in the lowest two attainment categories, who achieved either no awards at A-F/1-6, or less than five awards at A-F/1-6, was 51% in 1984, but this proportion dropped to just 6% in 2002.

Figure 5.1

5.3 The increasing average attainment shown in Figure 5.1 provides evidence of the considerable success of the Scottish school system in improving performance levels over two decades. Clearly, pupils and their teachers have been making great efforts to achieve higher overall levels of Standard Grade attainment over time. However, there may be problems of "credential inflation", as the more people achieve qualifications the less value they are perceived to have (Wolf 2002).

Perceptions of school at age 16

5.4 SSLS cohorts from 1992 onwards were asked questions about their perceptions of school, and on average they proved to be extremely positive (Figure 5.2). The majority agreed that "School has helped give me confidence to make decisions" and "School has taught me things that would be useful in a job". The majority disagreed with the statement "School has done little to prepare me for life when I leave". There is a slight tendency for young people with higher levels of S4 attainment ⁷, to be a little more positive than those in lower attainment bands. However, it is clear that the majority of those young people in the lowest attainment band had a relatively positive perception of their compulsory school experience.

Figure 5.2

Participation in full-time education post-16

5.5 Over the two decades covered by this study, increasing proportions of young people stayed on in education after the age of 16. Raffe (2003b) notes that increasing participation is influenced partly by compositional factors, such as increasing levels of parental education and social class. He suggests that other factors contributing to the growth include: reforms of compulsory schooling, which have encouraged more positive attitudes to school; changes in the labour market which have reduced opportunities for early leavers; and the structure of courses that reduce the risks associated with staying on (Raffe 2003b, p798). Increasing levels of participation are illustrated by changes in post-16 participation among young people surveyed by the SSLS (Figure 5.3). The first cohort of young people were surveyed in spring 1985, some 9-10 months after they completed fourth year (ie the S4 stage), and at that time less than half of the cohort were in full-time education. In contrast, over three-quarters of the most recent cohort were in full-time education in spring 2003.

5.6 The vast majority of young people who entered post-compulsory education chose to stay-on at school rather than moving to a college of further education. Figure 5.3 shows that in 1985 43% of young people stayed on at school, and this proportion increased to 68% by 2003. Over the same period the proportion of young people going to a college rose from 4% to 11%.
For the most part, courses taken at school tend to be academic courses aiming for National Qualifications, whereas colleges provide a wider range of courses, including vocational courses.

Figure 5.3

5.7 Levels of participation in post-16 education were strongly influenced by S4 attainment and this is illustrated by Figure 5.4. Throughout the period, almost all young people with the highest levels of Standard Grade attainment (in the top 20% of the attainment range of each cohort) stayed on for post-16 education. The main change is at the lower end of the attainment range. While very few of those in the bottom 40% of the attainment range entered post-16 education in the 1980s, over time the increase in participation has been greatest among these lower attaining groups of young people. As a consequence, a far more diverse range of students have to be catered for in post-16 education now than in the 1980s and 90s.

Figure 5.4

Attainment in national examinations at age 18

5.8 Provision of courses for the post-compulsory stages of education has changed considerably over the two decades of this study. In the early 1980s courses provided in the S5 and S6 stages at school were almost exclusively academic and focused on Highers courses for young people with high levels of attainment at age 16. However, as a more diverse range of young people were staying on for post-compulsory education, different levels of course became necessary. The Higher Still reforms led to the development of National Qualifications ( NQ) at a number of levels - Access 1 to 3, Intermediate 1 and 2, Higher and Advanced Higher - in order to provide appropriate courses and qualifications for all levels of ability. Nevertheless, despite the logic of the Higher Still framework, recent research shows that improved opportunities for access have not translated into improved attainment for mid and low attainers: students with middle and low Standard Grade ( SG) attainment had poorer average pass rates in NQs than those with high SG attainment (Raffe, Howieson and Tinklin 2005, 2007).

Figure 5.5

5.9 The Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework ( SCQF) provides a framework for comparing levels of attainment from different qualifications. The highest level of qualification achieved ⁸ by each cohort up to the end of the S6 stage at school (or its college equivalent) is shown by Figure 5.5. Over time there has been a marked decrease in the proportion of young people with no qualifications and a slow but steady increase in the proportion of young people achieving SCQF levels 6 and 7.

Participation in education at age 18

5.10 Over the two decades covered by this study, increasing proportions of young people have continued in education to age 18. The proportion of young people who stated that education was their main activity at the second time - point of the SSLS surveys (2.75 years after the end of compulsory schooling) increased from 19% in 1987 to 45% in 2005 (table not shown). The majority of those young people were in higher education (16% of the cohort in 1987 and 37% of the cohort in 2005).

5.11 Prior attainment is the main influence on participation in post-16 education and this is illustrated by Figure 5.6 based on S4 attainment bands. Throughout the period, the majority of young people with the highest levels of Standard Grade attainment (in the top 20% of the attainment range of each cohort) remained in education at age 18. In contrast, very few of those in the bottom 40% of the attainment range were in education. Raffe notes that "Post compulsory education in Scotland appears to reflect the principle that further learning is for those who are best at it, rather than those who are most in need of it" (Raffe 2003, p297).

Figure 5.6

Summary

5.12 Over the two decades covered by this study there have been upward trends in:

• S4 attainment;
• Post-16 participation in education;
• Attainment in NQ at age 18;
• Participation in education at age 18+.

5.13 These trends have been associated with increasing polarisation between those with high and low Standard grade attainment at age 16.

5.14 Perceptions of the compulsory school experience were very positive among all attainment bands, but were especially positive among high attainers.

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