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CHAPTER 2: SCOTLAND'S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK

2.1 Climate change adaptation

The term 'adapt' means to alter or adjust; to make fit or suitable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) defines climate change adaptation as "adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities"⁷.

The IPCC emphasises that " [a]daptation is essential to reduce the effects of climate change and is the only means to respond to the impacts from historic emissions." ⁸ Without adequate planning, adaptation is likely to be ad hoc, responsive, and lead to worse outcomes than could have been achieved. Much of the activity will be responding to emergencies when earlier, coordinated action might have prevented the emergency or lessened its impact. Furthermore, unplanned adaptation by a number of individuals may accumulate to give adverse outcomes, such as the effect of increasing flood risk as a result of many small flood defence measures. Providing a degree of strategic coordination in such situations will limit adverse outcomes and potentially improve the effectiveness of the individual's actions to adapt.

2.2 Scotland's Climate Change Adaptation Framework

In many cases, Scotland already has in place legislation, regulation or policy to protect against those impacts likely to pose the greatest risk, such as the risk of more frequent flooding events. The Adaptation Framework will complement these sectoral or topic-specific responses, providing consistent guidance for a sustainable approach to climate change adaptation and encouraging greater integration of government policy. The Adaptation Framework, and associated commitment to public reporting, will also provide leadership and help to catalyse action across the Scottish Government and all sectors of society, demonstrating the importance of preparing for a changing climate.

2.3 Timescales of the Adaptation Framework

Building resilience to the unavoidable impacts of a changing climate is an ongoing process. It involves the ongoing integration of options, costs and risks by individuals and organisations in different locations and over different timescales. For example, local authorities will consider recent trends and very immediate weather projections when determining their budgetary requirements for gritting roads for ice. On the other hand, engineers developing new road networks for a town will consider climate projections over the lifetime of the capital asset, a period of decades, in setting their building specifications. In such cases, adaptation action identified by looking ahead over the next few decades must be initiated now.

Consequently, the aim and objectives of the Adaptation Framework have been designed to provide leadership and guidance to a broad and varied audience. It is proposed that the long-term aims and objectives of the Adaptation Framework will be supported by a short-term programme of Government actions, to be informed and updated in line with the cycle of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (see Box 2). The Risk Assessment will assess and prioritise the key risks from the unavoidable impact of a changing climate on the UK on a five yearly basis, with the first assessment to be delivered in 2011 ¹⁰. Accordingly, the first Scottish programme of actions is for 2009-2011 (see Annex A), after which it will be reviewed and a new action programme developed for the period 2012-2016.

Limiting and understanding our exposure to changes in climate

2.4 Limiting and understanding our exposure to changes in climate

The degree to which Scotland is exposed to change, such as increases in annual temperature, is determined by global climate change. Greater exposure to such change can only be limited (mitigated) by a global reduction in greenhouse gases. Actions delivered under the Adaptation Framework do not directly seek to reduce emissions. However, it is essential the linkages between mitigation and adaptation are recognised and outcomes that benefit both are pursued. Section 2.6 links the Adaptation Framework with the Scottish Government's action to reduce emissions and sets out how we are working to improve our understanding of Scotland's exposure to changes in climate.

2.5 Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change, published in 2006, states that if the world fails to stabilise emissions in a relatively short space of time, it ' could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the Great Wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century'.

Research presented by the IPCC indicates that world greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced to between 50 and 85% below year 2000 levels in order to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and most likely limit warming to between 2.0 and 2.4ûC.

Scotland emits only 0.15% of the world's greenhouse gases but Scotland's exposure to the potential impacts of a changing climate is determined by global emissions. Ambitious global emissions reductions will be necessary if significant changes in Scotland's climate are to be avoided. The Scottish Government believes it has a moral obligation to demonstrate leadership by reducing Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions and moving to a new greener, cleaner, sustainable economy.

To tackle this challenge, the Scottish Government is working in partnership with the UK Government and other Devolved Administrations through the Climate Change Act 2008 to reduce the UK's emissions by at least 80% by 2050.

In addition, the Scottish Government introduced the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill to Parliament in December 2008: this proposes an emissions reduction target (which will include international aviation and shipping) of at least 80% by 2050 and an interim target of at least 50% reductions in 2030, together with annual emissions reduction targets.

These statutory targets provide a long-term legal framework in which to operate but the real challenge is in delivering the emission reductions and doing so whilst continuing to grow the Scottish economy and protecting the environment.

The Scottish Government is working to build up a picture of how and when emission reductions might take place over the next 40 years, setting out in broad terms the key sectors for abatement in the short, medium and long-term identifying where the major carbon savings could be made, highlighting the key milestones and actions in delivering these savings and the barriers to implementation. We are planning to publish a high level discussion document covering this work around June 2009 ¹¹.

2.6 Improve our understanding of the consequences of a changing climate

Computer simulation models that produce projections of how our climate may change provide valuable information to inform more robust plans and policies. These models are extremely complex as they incorporate all the aspects of the atmosphere that may influence climate, such as solar energy, natural and man-made emissions and the influence of land mass and the oceans. The UK is one of only a few countries to produce national climate projections.

The UK Climate Impacts Programme ( UKCIP) was established in 1997 to help co-ordinate scientific research into the impacts of a changing climate, and to help organisations adapt to those unavoidable impacts. UKCIP publishes the UK Climate Projections, in partnership with the Met Office, which show how the UK's climate might change over the coming century. The current projections were released in 2002 and are widely used in research into the impacts of climate change. In 2009, the fifth generation of UK Climate Projections ¹² will be released, providing a greater level of detail and, with that, increased usability which inform us of the likely changes in Scotland's climate.

ACTION 1: Support the further development of climate models

To assess fully the potential risks of a changing climate in Scotland, we must not only understand the likelihood and degree of change, we must also understand the consequences of that change and the costs of prevention. The Scottish Government is working with the UK Government to develop a UK Climate Change Risk Assessment to improve our understanding of the consequences of likely climate change (see Box 2).

Numerous studies and assessments are being conducted across the Scottish Government and broader public sector to inform specific policy areas of the risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate. This work will help to both inform directly related policy development as well as informing a broader cross-policy understanding of the consequences of climate change for Scotland.

ACTION 2: Develop detailed assessments of risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate

Adapting to the unavoidable changes in our climate comes at a cost but should also provide significant benefits. Currently, there is little information to expand on these costs and benefits. Further work is required to allow the proper consideration of short-term adaptation options, such as building adaptive capacity, as well as justifying long-term adaptation needs that may require early and pro-active investment. Therefore, the Scottish Government is working with neighbouring UK Administrations to undertake a UK Cost-Benefit Analysis of adaptation, to complement the Climate Change Risk Assessment. Developing the evidence base on the costs and benefits of adaptation is an important step towards gaining a better understanding of how best to approach adaptation to the impacts of climate change, examining objectively the risks and opportunities of climate change and how they compare to other challenges.

ACTION 3: Cost the risks and opportunities presented by a changing climate

ACTION 4: Work with Scottish sectors to cost risks presented by a changing climate

A great deal of research is being done by academic, industry and government bodies across Scotland, the UK and beyond. There is much to be gained from improving the knowledge base through a strategic approach to research and participating in partnerships, such as Living with Environmental Change ¹³. The Scottish Government will continue to be an active supporter and participant in such initiatives to ensure further improvement of our understanding of the consequences of a changing climate.

ACTION 5: Support the coordination of climate change research across Scotland and with UK partners

ACTION 6: Investigate the benefits of a centrally coordinated evidence base

A full list of specific actions to be delivered in the 2009-2011 period to improve our understanding of the consequences of a changing climate is provided in Annex A: Programme of Actions (2009-2011).

EQUIP DECISION MAKERS WITH SKILLS AND TOOLS TO ADAPT

2.7 Equip Scotland's decision makers with skills and tools to adapt

Despite a rapid increase in general awareness of climate change, research has shown there is a lack of basic understanding of how it will affect individuals and current lifestyle choices. While studies have shown that a full understanding is not a prerequisite to taking action, Government must work to improve understanding of the broad implications a changing climate has to encourage action across all sectors of society.

ACTION 7: Raise awareness of current and projected unavoidable impacts of a changing climate

Individuals and organisation require support to develop the capacity to use the available evidence base in their risk management and decision making processes. Greater awareness of the need to act now also requires supporting resources - information, training and tools - to ensure Scotland has the adaptive capacity to effectively integrate information about our changing climate into normal planning and development processes. See Box 5 for information on Scotland's free access resource hub, the Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership.

ACTION 8: Provide decision makers with appropriate decision support tools and training

A full list of specific actions to be delivered in the 2009-2011 period to better equip decision makers with the right skills and tools to adapt well is provided in Annex A: Programme of Actions (2009-2011).

INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION INTO PUBLIC POLICY AND REGULATION

2.8 Integrate climate change adaptation in public policy and regulation

Lack of information or the right tools are not the only barriers individuals and organisations face in adapting for a changing climate. Decision makers may also face barriers to adaptation if they are already under significant competing pressures or conflicting priorities. The Government is working to identify opportunities and address barriers by integrating climate change adaptation into its corporate planning processes as well as its core social, economic and environmental policies. Wherever possible, public policy and regulation should assist, rather than hinder, stakeholders to address the issues of climate change.

2.9 Scottish Government corporate planning processes

Ministers have stated that action on climate change will be come part and parcel of the way this government and the wider public sector behaves. The Scottish Climate Change Bill proposes a statutory requirement for Scottish Ministers to consider the risks and opportunities presented by a changing climate and for the Scottish Government to produce a programme of actions to address these risks (see Box 6).

The Government is also working to identify key corporate planning tools and processes that may assist in integrating climate change adaptation into Scottish Government policy development. For example, the Sustainable Development Checklist, designed to help Scottish Government officials take account of sustainable development when developing Bills, encourages consideration of the extent to which changes in climate will impact on the success of the proposal.

ACTION 9: Integrate climate change adaptation into Scottish Government corporate planning

2.10 Scottish Government social policy

Climate change will have significant consequences for Scotland's communities. Evidence shows that not only are the poorest people often more exposed to specific climate change impacts, they also find it harder to recover when they occur. Climate change will widen existing inequalities unless social impacts are actively addressed across the range of adaptation and mitigation measures ¹⁴.

Understanding the implications for equity and social justice

To assist our understanding of how a changing climate may impact upon equity and social justice issues, the Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research commissioned a study to identify how climate change affects different people within the UK, and how adaptation measures should consider social impacts to help build the capacity of vulnerable groups to adapt to climate change. The report is available on the website of the Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership - www.sccip.org.uk.

Taking a sustainable approach to flood management

Development of a new flood warning scheme
in North East Scotland
Source: Scottish Environmental Protection
Agency ( SEPA)

Flooding can have serious effects on people, homes, businesses and health. The Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Bill¹⁵ was introduced to Parliament on September 29, 2008. One of the main aims for the new legislation is to ensure that provisions are flexible enough to allow for climate change adaptation. In particular it will ensure that practitioners have more flexibility than they have under the present legislation to consider a wider range of flood risk management measures, including flood warning systems and natural flood management measures that can also contribute to biodiversity adaptation and carbon storage.

Preparing Scotland's emergency responders for a changing climate

The ethos of the Scottish Government's civil contingencies preparation is Integrated Emergency Management which emphasizes the consequences rather than causes of risks. This underlies the Government's guidance for emergency responders, Preparing Scotland¹⁶, in which the potential consequences of extreme weather events are evaluated as one of the four national-level risks. The other national level risks include pandemic flu, utilities failure (including fuel shortages) and terrorist attack. This process is incorporated in the guidance for responders on developing co-ordinated response arrangements and in measuring their capabilities, as part of developing resilience. The Scottish Government also develops and maintains its own co-ordination arrangements to support local area response and maintains robust continuity arrangements to ensure essential functions can still be carried out.

ACTION 10: Integrate changing climate adaptation into key Scottish Government social policy

2.11 Scottish Government economic policy

Delivering sustainable economic growth

The Scottish Government's overall purpose is to focus the government and public services on creating a more successful country with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth.

Unchecked, the unavoidable impacts of climate change have the ability to undermine Scotland's sustainable economic growth: Scotland's organisations will face increasing challenges to their business continuity from more frequent extreme weather events. Long-life assets, such as transport infrastructure, may require early and expensive replacement if they cannot withstand new climate conditions. Communities may face both the economic pressures and long-term health implications of flooding.

However, with early and co-ordinated preparation individuals and organisations may minimise the impacts of costly disruptions and safeguard the long-term prosperity of Scotland's environment and our economy. By ensuring action on climate change underpins the delivery of the overall purpose, the Government is ensuring that tackling climate change becomes integrated into the way the Government and the wider Scottish public sector behaves, not an optional extra. In particular, building Scotland's resilience to a changing climate will help the Government deliver its following National Outcomes:

We live in well-designed, sustainable places where we are able to access the amenities and services we need;

We have strong, resilient and supportive communities where people take responsibility for their own actions and how they affect others; and

We value and enjoy our built and natural environment and protect it and enhance it for future generations.

Taking a national approach to spatial planning

The second National Planning Framework ( NPF2) guides the spatial development of Scotland to 2030. It addresses critical elements of national infrastructure: national developments, transport, energy, waste management, water and drainage, flooding and water resource management and communications technology. NPF2 specifically endorses the creation of national ecological networks to create better environments and new opportunities for local communities. In doing so, it supports both the delivery of greater resilience to a changing climate and the sustainable economic growth.

The priorities set under the NPF2 also influence the preparation of strategic and local development plans, thereby promoting climate change adaptation into local planning.

Flooding of Perth to Inverness railway line
Source: Scottish Environment Protection Agency ( SEPA)

Building the resilience of our strategic transport networks

In the face of a changing climate it is critical that we are able to maintain and safely operate our strategic transport network on both road and rail. Transport Scotland commissioned a Landslide Study to provide a comprehensive picture of the future risk of landslides in Scotland and the evidence required to properly plan for and manage that risk. Since the Study's findings were published in 2005, Transport Scotland has been working to implement the design, operational and research-related actions that came out of the Study. Considerable progress has been made in addressing the impacts associated with the predicted effects of climate change on the Scottish road network, with 19 of the Study's original 28 recommendations now complete or progressing.

Integrating climate change adaptation into Government investment

The Treasury Green Book provides guidance for UK administrations on the economic assessment of spending and investment. The UK Government is currently examining whether there is sufficient utilisation of knowledge of future risks to Government investments (particularly capital expenditure) from a changing climate. In addition to this, the UK Government is producing supplementary guidance for the Green Book guidance to enable climate change adaptation to be built properly into the decision making process for future spending and investment proposals.

ACTION 11: Integrate changing climate adaptation into key Scottish Government economic policy

2.12 Scottish Government environmental policies

Climate change is the most serious threat to Scotland's biodiversity and natural environment. People and society depend on these environmental systems to support a healthy existence, livelihood and quality of life.

Addressing the impacts of a changing climate on biodiversity

The Scottish Biodiversity Strategy It's In Your Hands¹⁷ presents a 25-year vision and framework for action to protect Scotland's biodiversity. All public bodies in Scotland have a duty to further the conservation of biodiversity as they carry out their work. The Scottish Biodiversity Strategy focuses on developing a wider planning area, for greater effectiveness of measures and also to take on board the additional pressures that climate change will bring. The next Progress Report on the Strategy will focus on activities undertaken during 2008-2010. The Strategy complements the Nature Conservation (Scotland) Act 2004, which requires public bodies in Scotland to take biodiversity into account in their activities.

Addressing the impacts of a changing climate on our marine environment

The Scottish Marine Bill, due to be laid before parliament in spring 2009 and become an Act by 2010, will bring about a significant change in the way Scotland's marine environment is managed. Science and monitoring will be mainstreamed into government through the creation of Marine Scotland, bringing research and policy makers into one integrated function. A new tiered system of marine spatial planning will be introduced for future decision making in Scotland's seas. In exercising its marine planning functions Marine Scotland will have access to all the available data and information gathered, including that about how climate change is affecting the seas around Scotland, for its decision making. See Box 3 for information on the resources produced through the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership.

Installation of dams to help restore bog habitat at Methven Moss, Perthshire
Source: Scottish Natural Heritage

Addressing the impacts of climate change on our rural environment and communities

The Scottish Rural Development Programme ( SRDP) is a £1.6 billion programme of economic, environmental and social measures designed to develop rural Scotland over the next six years. Individuals and groups may seek support to help deliver the Government's strategic objectives in rural Scotland, including a number of measures which will improve the overall health, and resilience, of Scotland's natural environment to a changing climate. Measures include, for example, restoring wetlands and peatlands, enhancing ancient wood pastures, enhancing or creating hedgerows and the sustainable management of forests and woodlands. Measures to improve Scotland's water quality - such as reducing diffuse pollution, soil erosion and emissions of nitrous oxide and ammonia - will also contribute to the resilience of the natural environment.

Addressing the impacts of climate change on our water environment

Climate change has a wide variety of implications for the water environment. Rising water temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns are of particular importance to surface water systems. Such changes are likely to affect how ecosystems function, especially in combination with changes to water chemistry. For example, warmer standing waters (lochs) receiving greater nutrient run-off as a result of higher intensity rainfall events could exacerbate algal blooms and eutrophication. Significant changes in average temperature, precipitation and soil moisture are likely to affect water demand in most sectors, especially agriculture, forestry and public supply. Groundwater supplies are less susceptible than surface water to short-term climate variability but they are more influenced by long-term trends.

The river basin management planning process, introduced under the Water Environment and Water Services Act, will help us to address the impacts of climate change on our water environment. SEPA is beginning to take into account the possible impacts of changes in flow regimes in a number of ways, such as in its authorisations under the Controlled Activities Regulation, and in the development of guidance on sustainable water management.

ACTION 12: Integrate climate change adaptation into key Scottish Government environmental policy

A full list of specific actions to be delivered in the 2009-2011 period to integrate climate change adaptation into Government policy are available in Annex A: Programme of Actions (2009-2011).

2.13 Measuring and reporting progress

Appropriate measurement of the Government's progress towards achieving the aim of the Adaptation Framework is necessary for transparency and accountability. The aims and objectives of the Adaptation Framework (see paragraph 2.2.1) will be supported by a short-term, rolling programme of actions, to be informed and updated in line with the cycle of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Accordingly, the current proposed programme of actions is for 2009-2011 (see Annex A), after which it will be reviewed and a new action programme developed for the period 2012-2016.

The Government proposes to provide annual progress reports against the short-term programme of actions included in the Adaptation Framework. At present the Scottish Government has a commitment to report annually to Parliament on progress in relation to Scotland's Climate Change Programme ( SCCP). Progress on the Adaptation Framework actions, and the inclusion of any new actions, will be included in the SCCP annual report until such time as reporting requirements outlined in the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill supersede this.

A more detailed assessment of progress against the Adaptation Framework's aim and objectives will be presented to Parliament on a five yearly basis. Timing for laying this progress report before Parliament will be in line with the release of an updated UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (see Box 2).

This reporting presents a regular assessment of the Government's progress in implementing the processes required for climate change adaptation. The Government will continue to consider options for the development of an indicator set against which progress towards the Adaptation Framework's objectives may be measured (outcome-based indicators).

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