The Scottish Government

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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 The impact of climate change on Scotland

Organisations and individuals make decisions every day that may have long-term implications and potentially significant effects on Scotland's society, economy and environment. Many of these decisions may implicitly or explicitly rely on assumptions about future climate conditions - assumptions about continuing tourism trends, consumer trends, building standards or agricultural practices, matters that are influenced by the prevailing climate. Such assumptions may risk undermining the successful outcome of these decisions as they are often based on historical trends - trends that climate models show are no longer representative of Scotland's future climate.

For further information on climate projections over the coming century for Scotland, see the UK Climate Impact Programme at www.ukcip.org.uk

The consequences of these changes in Scotland's climate - past and future - will affect Scotland across sectors, income groups and communities. The implications and associated challenges of a changing and more variable climate on Scotland's key sectors include:

Critical national infrastructure - energy, water, transport

• Assets such as sewerage and drainage systems may not be able to cope with sudden and intense storm events which could lead to increased flooding. Retrofitting assets for new weather conditions could present a considerable cost
• Increased flooding is likely to lead to disruptions to customers' utilities supplies, including energy or water
• Increased variability in factors such as soil moisture has the potential to cause ground movements that make national infrastructure more vulnerable to damage
• Assets are often inaccessible and can be vulnerable to flooding and storm damage
• Potential for increased insurance costs to suppliers and generators
• Increasing variability of water availability (water resource planning) and water quality (rainfall runoff) potentially impacts water service delivery
• Hydro-electricity production may be affected by drier summers and wetter winters
• Existing requirements (e.g. water quality) may conflict with climate change requirements and be harder to achieve due to climate change effects
• Supply of goods and services to island communities disrupted by increased storm events
• Fewer transport disruptions expected due to cold weather and less need for spreading salt, but potential for greater disruptions from landslides or floods
• Cost of adapting road and rail infrastructure to changed climatic conditions - e.g. routing transport away from vulnerable coastlines
• Impacts on port infrastructure from more severe storms as well as broader implications of greater service demand as new global shipping routes open

Land and property ownership

• Current building design standards may not be appropriate for full lifetime of buildings
• Increased maintenance or retrofitting costs for existing buildings to cope with more intense rainfall events, increased algal and fungal growth etc
• Potential conflict between land use planning systems, for example managing flood risk while pursuing sustainable economic development
• Need to protect vulnerable historical sites and buildings from extreme weather events or greater severity of current threats (e.g. soil erosion and vegetation growth)
• Increased need for cooling of buildings in warmer weather
• Increased insurance costs and potential uninsurability as extreme weather events such as flooding happen more frequently
• Need to raise awareness amongst private property owners of their responsibility to be proactive in the face of a changing climate

Woodland Connectivity
Source: Forestry Commission Scotland
Natural environment and resource management

• Potential loss of distinctive Scottish biodiversity (e.g. mountain habitats); biodiversity which helps to regulate the climate (e.g. peatland), reduces vulnerability to flooding (e.g. wetland and machair), and provides other ecosystem services (e.g. grouse moors)
• Increased impact from pests and diseases, including on sustainably used wild species such as red grouse, commercial species such as trees, crops and livestock; and impacts of non-native species such as seaweeds
• Effects of warming in the sea, with shifts in distributions of fish and other species, and possible effects on seabird populations
• Unpredictable effects of increasing ocean acidification on marine species and food webs from increased absorption of carbon dioxide
• Impact of climate change on hydrology (affecting both flood risks and water security)
• Challenges for the management of soils, e.g. water-logging, erosion, damage from land, crop and livestock practices that developed under historic/recent climatic conditions
• Risk of fluctuations in water availability to crops, stocks and industry such as distilling
• Potential to change or increase tree species and forested land

Health and wellbeing

• Both positive and negative impacts on the employment, activities, health, leisure and tourism opportunities for people living in and visiting Scotland
• Impacts on Scottish business, and related employment, through their supply chains and overseas markets
• Less cold-related illness and mortality
• Impact on air quality (e.g. increased likelihood of smog or increased algal or fungal growth in buildings) may affect respiratory conditions
• Longer growing seasons may have implications for allergies
• Immediate and long-term health impacts caused by extreme weather events -
  disproportionately affecting vulnerable and high risk groups
• Warmer temperatures may encourage more outdoor recreation

1.2 Building Scotland's resilience to a changing climate

A change in climate presents a wide range of challenges and opportunities for individuals and organisations in Scotland. How disruptive this change is will be determined by our preparedness. But for what future climate should we prepare?

Scotland has access to world-leading climate modelling, the output of which is available to inform decision makers about likely climate projections over the coming decades. In 2009, the latest UK Climate Projections ³ will be released. These projections will provide users with access to the most comprehensive package of climate information yet - including climate projections, marine projections and observed climate information. These projections take account of recent advances in climate science to better quantify some of the uncertainties associated with climate modelling, and reflect the UK Met Office Hadley Centre scientists' latest understanding of how the climate system operates and how it might change in the future.

Even with these notable advances in climate projections, we cannot be entirely certain about Scotland's future climate. The weather from year to year is determined both by the long-term trend of climate change and the short-term natural variability. This means that not all future summers will be hot and dry, nor all winters warm and wet even though this is the general trend expected in future. In the face of this uncertainty, Scotland will be best prepared if its resilience to change is strengthened. Resilience, in this context, means the ability of social, economic and environmental systems to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning. If Scotland is more resilient, it will be less vulnerable to the adverse impacts of a changing climate.

Scotland's vulnerability to the potential impacts of a changing climate is determined by several aspects: the degree to which Scotland is exposed to change; how capable individuals and organisations are to adapt effectively to that change; and the extent to which adaptation options may be limited by competing pressures ⁴. These determinants of vulnerability are illustrated in Diagram 1, along with actions the Scottish Government will take through the Adaptation Framework to build Scotland's resilience to a changing climate.

Diagram 1: Determinants of vulnerability and actions to build resilience

^{* Scotland's Climate Change Adaptation Framework recognises the importance of addressing climate change adaptation alongside actions to reduce emissions. However, the actions of the Adaptation Framework will focus on achieving climate change adaptation rather than emissions reduction. For further information on the Scottish Government's activities to reduce emissions, please visit www.scotland.gov.uk/climatechange}

1.3 Exposure to changes in climate

Scotland's exposure describes how great or little changes in climate will be. For example, annual temperatures in Scotland may rise by up to 3.5ºC in the summer ⁵. The degree of exposure felt in Scotland is determined by global climate change. Limiting greater exposure to such change can only be achieved by reducing emissions of global greenhouse gases. However, historic and current emissions mean that Scotland's climate is already changing and some degree of further change over the next 30 to 40 years is now unavoidable. It is important we understand Scotland's exposure to this global change and the consequences it holds.

1.4 Capacity to adapt well to changes in climate

Scotland has world-leading climate projections ⁶ and we will continue to improve our understanding of the consequences of ongoing climate change. However, individuals and organisations require support to develop the capacity to use this evidence base in their risk management and decision making processes. Greater awareness of the need to act now as well as supporting resources - information, training and tools - are required to ensure Scotland has the adaptive capacity to effectively integrate information about our changing climate into normal planning and development processes.

1.5 Barriers to adaptation caused by competing pressures

When a subject (whether a species, a service or community group) is already under considerable pressure, there may be fewer options available for the subject to adapt, essentially creating a barrier to effective adaptation. For example, there will be fewer adaptation options open to Scotland's valuable biodiversity if it also faces significant additional pressures from pollution and habitat loss. This principle holds true for Scotland's society, economy and environment - the consequences of change will impact more severely upon these systems if they are already under stress from other pressures. Mainstreaming the principles of and addressing the barriers to climate change adaptation in core social, economic and environmental policy will lessen their sensitivity to climate change.

The Adaptation Framework will seek to address each of these determinants of vulnerability [exposure, adaptive capacity and competing pressures] through a programme of Government actions. In doing so, these activities will increase the resilience of Scottish people, and the natural and economic systems on which they depend, to the unavoidable impacts of a changing climate.

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