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Introduction
This publication presents statistics of the numbers of injury road accidents (i.e. road accidents in which one or more people are injured or killed) in Scotland that were reported by the police using the Stats 19 statistical returns (see Annex B). Each accident is classified according to the severity of the injury to the most seriously injured person involved in the accident.
Very few, if any, fatal accidents do not become known to the police. However, there could be many non-fatal injury accidents that are not reported by the public to the police, and are therefore not counted in these statistics because the police can only include in their returns details of the accidents of which they are aware.
The Contents page lists the different parts of this publication, which include:
- Summary - shows the main trends in the reported numbers of road accidents and casualties in recent years;
- Commentary - includes descriptions of the trends in the reported numbers of road accidents and casualties, more detailed analyses (of the numbers of accidents, of the statistics about motorists, and of the numbers of casualties) and comparisons of the Scottish figures with some other countries' numbers;
- Casualty Reduction Targets for 2010 - describes progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010;
- Contributory Factors - sets out the main results of the Contributory Factors, which were added to the Stats 19 specification at the start of 2005;
- Comparison of the police Stats 19 road casualty figures with some other figures for Scotland - compares the Stats 19 figures with the numbers of registered deaths and emergency hospital admissions due to road accidents, and provides some other relevant information; and
- Statistical Tables - contains all the detailed tables, many of which are illustrated by charts
There are also several Annexes, an Index, and information about Scottish Government Road Safety Research reports, Transport Statistics publications, the Transport Statistics Users' Group, the Transport Statistics Web site, and the Scottish Government Statistician Group.
The rest of this Introduction consists of sections on:
1. the status of the statistics;
2. the years covered in the tables;
3. road accident casualty reduction targets for the year 2010: comparisons with the annual averages for 1994-98;
4. estimates of the total volume of road traffic; and
5. changes which were made for this edition
Road Casualties Scotland is one of a series of Transport Statistics publications, most of which focus on particular aspects of transport and cover them in depth. These can be found at www.scotland.gov.uk/transtat.
1. The status of the statistics
Most of the data used in this publication were extracted from the Road Accidents statistical database on the 23 January 2009. The statistics given here may differ slightly from those published elsewhere (e.g. provisional figures that appeared in Key Road Accident Statistics) because they were extracted on a different date and wouldn't incorporate any later changes (e.g. due to late returns or late corrections).
The information held in the Scottish Government's Road Accident Statistics database was collected by the police following each accident, and subsequently reported to the Government. The Scottish Government's statistics may differ slightly from the local authorities as changes or corrections that local authorities may have made, for use at local level, to their own data may not always be accounted for in the Scottish Government database.
E.g. local authorities may have since corrected information on an accident's location, or severity, concluding it occurred in a different local authority area than originally thought or different severity of accident/casualty. Therefore, there may be slight differences between figures published here and figures that the local authorities themselves would quote.
Any late returns received by the Scottish Government after the snapshot was taken (23 January) will be incorporated into the next available publication.
2. The years covered in the tables
Some tables present a time series so that any trends can be identified. However, the more detailed tables provide figures only in the form of 5-year annual averages (e.g. for the years 2003-2007), and do not give figures for the latest single year. If readers need versions of the detailed tables for single years, they can be provided on request.
Some of the detailed tables in earlier editions of the publication have not been repeated since. A list of statistics covered in more detail in previous editions can be found at the end of the Index. Readers may request updated versions of such tables.
3. Road accident casualty reduction targets for the year 2010: comparisons with the annual averages for 1994-98
In many of the tables, the latest figures are compared with the annual averages for 1994-98. This is done because, in March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Government and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. These targets were introduced to focus on achieving a further substantial improvement in road safety over the following ten years, with particular emphasis on child casualties. The targets, which are given in the document Tomorrow's roads - safer for everyone, were based on the annual average casualty levels over the period 1994 to 1998. By 2010 it is hoped that there will be, compared with the average for 1994-98:
- a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured in road accidents.
- a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
- a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, expressed as the number of people slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres
Annual averages for 1994-98 are therefore included in many tables, so that readers can see how the latest figures compare with the baselines for these targets.
In addition, the section on the Casualty Reduction Targets for 2010 provides statistics related to these targets, plus a selection of key points. It contains charts and tables for each of the three targets showing the main trends in casualty numbers compared with the 1994-98 baseline averages, and with the numbers that might be expected in each year if the targets were to be achieved by means of a constant percentage reduction in each year.
These GB targets will be reviewed in the forthcoming year by the DfT. In addition the Scottish Road Strategy will be published in 2009 and will include targets covering 2009: 2019.
4. Estimates of the total volume of road traffic
Some tables include figures for the total volume of traffic, or accident or casualty rates calculated from them. The traffic estimates were provided by the Department for Transport (DfT), which produces estimates of the total volume of road traffic for Scotland and for other parts of Great Britain, (described in Chapter 6 of Scottish Transport Statistics). These estimates are based on data from a very small cross-section of the roads in Scotland: traffic counts taken at under 800 sites per year plus data from automatic traffic counters at about two dozen sites in Scotland (which are combined with data from similar sites in England and Wales).
DfT's estimates are based on an urban/rural classification of roads, not on the built-up/non built-up classification of roads used in the traffic estimates that were made up to 2002 (which is still used for the accident and casualty statistics). In general:
- an urban road is a road (other than a Motorway) that lies within the boundaries of an urban area with a population of 10,000 or more in 2001;
- a built-up road is one that has a speed limit of 40 m.p.h. or less
As traffic on a particular road can be classed as rural whilst accidents occurring on it classed as built-up, it would be incorrect to estimate an area's accident rate for built-up roads by dividing its number of accidents on built-up roads by its estimated volume of traffic on urban roads. Therefore, estimates of built-up and non built-up accident rates are provided in Table 5 only for Scotland as a whole - and these estimates may not be precise, due to the nature of the classifications.
The DfT traffic estimates provide only a rough indication of the likely total volume of traffic in each Council area. These are not National Statistics. For example, DfT believes that its estimates of the volume of traffic on minor roads (i.e. B, C and unclassified roads) for Scotland as a whole are of acceptable quality. However, the 320 or so counts now taken per year at minor road sites across Scotland represent an average of 10 per local authority per year - clearly too few to be the basis of reliable estimates for individual local authority areas for each year. DfT therefore estimate the total volume of traffic on minor roads in individual local authority areas in other ways (outlined in Scottish Transport Statistics). The resulting estimates, which are consistent with the overall totals for Scotland as a whole, provide only a broad indication of the likely total volume of traffic on minor roads in each local authority area. As a result:
- it is not possible for DfT to quantify the possible margins of error around them;
- they are not classed as National Statistics;
- more detailed breakdowns of the estimates for individual local authority areas (e.g. separately for B, C and unclassified roads; or for urban roads and rural roads) are not published
In addition, DfT's estimates of traffic on major roads in each local authority area are also not classed as National Statistics. They too are based on limited data: as manual traffic counts are taken on a rotating census basis, there may be several years between successive counts at a particular site. Therefore, DfT notes that there could be some large errors in its traffic estimates for the major roads in some of the smaller local authority areas. Similar considerations apply to DfT's estimates of the total volume of traffic on all roads in each area, which are produced by adding together its estimates of traffic on major roads and on minor roads.
In conclusion: DfT provides its estimates of the volume of traffic in each local authority area as the best that it can produce from the limited amount of data available to it - rough indications of the likely volume of traffic in each area, for use with caution, as no better estimates are available.
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