« Previous | Contents | Next »
Listen
6 CONCLUDING REMARKS
This has been an intensive and challenging project for the research team. While it may be considered to be an achievement and a noticeable advance to report that Scotland now has an integrated best practice simulation model, broadly on a par with what is available in England, the lesson from the English regional affordability model is that to sustain its value, it has to be maintained, updated and refreshed periodically with data for re-estimation. The model also has to be tested by peer review and other users. Hopefully, this will lead to further advancement in the quality of the modules, the programming and the user interface.
The model can fairly be considered to be something of an achievement. However, it has been stressed throughout that there are a number of health warnings with any such enterprise. The model remains very much work in progress and one that might benefit from one or more exogenous research shocks in the form of better data becoming available in an area like international migration. This could lead to the justification for re-estimating individual modules, plus their interactions and have significant impacts on parameter estimates which in turn feed into the model. Second, it is a long run simulation model which means that it is of less use in terms of shedding light on short run disruptions and cyclical turning points. That remains a job for other types of market model (though not of course unconnected). Third, the model has little presently to say about non-market housing and the way in which market processes and outcomes affect the demand, supply, and outcomes found in the rest of local housing systems. This is another area ripe for further research, which could possibly be integrated in different ways into future iterations of the simulation model.
« Previous | Contents | Next »