Scottish Model of Housing Supply and Affordability: Simulation Model User Guide

Scenario 1

Mean house price levels

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	139,409	148,727	146,900	184,815	157,403	160,705	150,838	139,421	156,384
2012 - 2016	122,263	132,829	123,336	148,760	186,387	156,012	131,171	131,440	152,678
2017 - 2021	118,463	162,152	140,013	132,011	259,398	188,146	147,594	151,510	184,480
2022 - 2026	142,252	144,386	149,558	181,018	227,165	196,560	155,966	164,106	186,461
2027 - 2031	130,441	132,642	142,683	162,610	234,046	194,976	152,756	166,248	184,070
2032 - 2036	138,533	174,167	173,654	181,287	293,919	233,814	183,979	194,577	222,470
2037 - 2041	158,585	177,095	182,663	226,802	279,842	244,927	191,488	203,811	229,742

Mean house price to mean household income ratios

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	4.93	7.97	7.40	8.92	6.59	7.91	7.06	6.10	7.23
2012 - 2016	3.86	6.90	5.97	6.08	7.74	7.15	5.78	5.28	6.61
2017 - 2021	3.90	8.07	6.84	6.00	9.46	8.32	6.56	5.90	7.63
2022 - 2026	4.26	6.35	6.49	7.29	7.41	7.73	6.28	5.70	6.91
2027 - 2031	3.66	6.14	6.18	5.95	7.83	7.56	6.17	5.62	6.76
2032 - 2036	3.72	7.16	6.89	6.59	8.71	8.23	6.77	6.01	7.43
2037 - 2041	3.75	6.39	6.38	7.08	7.46	7.65	6.23	5.58	6.82

Lower quartile house price to lower quartile household income ratios

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	3.95	6.39	5.94	7.15	5.28	6.34	5.66	4.89	5.71
2012 - 2016	3.09	5.53	4.79	4.88	6.21	5.73	4.64	4.23	5.26
2017 - 2021	3.13	6.47	5.48	4.81	7.59	6.67	5.26	4.73	6.08
2022 - 2026	3.42	5.09	5.20	5.85	5.94	6.19	5.04	4.57	5.50
2027 - 2031	2.93	4.92	4.96	4.77	6.28	6.06	4.95	4.50	5.39
2032 - 2036	2.98	5.74	5.52	5.29	6.98	6.60	5.43	4.82	5.91
2037 - 2041	3.00	5.12	5.11	5.67	5.98	6.13	5.00	4.47	5.42

Predicted rates of owner occupation

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	0.85	0.71	0.69	0.75	0.79	0.73	0.77	0.74	0.76
2012 - 2016	0.86	0.73	0.70	0.75	0.82	0.76	0.79	0.77	0.78
2017 - 2021	0.88	0.76	0.73	0.78	0.84	0.78	0.81	0.80	0.80
2022 - 2026	0.89	0.76	0.74	0.81	0.84	0.79	0.81	0.82	0.81
2027 - 2031	0.90	0.79	0.76	0.81	0.87	0.82	0.83	0.84	0.83
2032 - 2036	0.92	0.83	0.80	0.85	0.89	0.85	0.86	0.86	0.86
2037 - 2041	0.93	0.84	0.82	0.87	0.90	0.87	0.87	0.88	0.88

Scenario 2

Mean house price levels

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	139,380	148,640	146,744	184,512	157,305	160,463	150,792	139,394	156,233
2012 - 2016	121,720	131,397	122,046	146,926	185,246	153,694	130,166	130,793	151,150
2017 - 2021	116,542	156,243	135,681	126,035	255,264	179,934	143,706	149,144	179,026
2022 - 2026	138,651	135,134	142,777	166,132	220,857	182,681	149,335	160,447	177,120
2027 - 2031	127,813	118,667	134,020	147,855	221,553	174,965	143,827	161,732	170,684
2032 - 2036	135,045	148,959	161,178	158,161	273,857	203,096	169,982	188,672	201,567
2037 - 2041	155,677	151,849	172,255	195,272	263,562	212,144	178,937	200,644	208,890

Mean house price to mean household income ratios

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	4.93	7.96	7.39	8.90	6.58	7.89	7.06	6.09	7.22
2012 - 2016	3.83	6.80	5.89	5.98	7.68	7.01	5.72	5.24	6.52
2017 - 2021	3.83	7.73	6.60	5.67	9.30	7.91	6.36	5.79	7.37
2022 - 2026	4.15	5.91	6.18	6.67	7.18	7.14	6.00	5.57	6.53
2027 - 2031	3.59	5.43	5.79	5.39	7.37	6.73	5.78	5.46	6.21
2032 - 2036	3.62	6.11	6.40	5.70	8.13	7.13	6.26	5.84	6.70
2037 - 2041	3.70	5.48	6.03	6.14	7.02	6.62	5.84	5.51	6.18

Lower quartile house price to lower quartile household income ratios

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	3.95	6.38	5.93	7.14	5.28	6.33	5.66	4.88	5.70
2012 - 2016	3.07	5.45	4.72	4.80	6.16	5.62	4.59	4.20	5.19
2017 - 2021	3.07	6.20	5.29	4.55	7.45	6.34	5.10	4.64	5.87
2022 - 2026	3.33	4.74	4.96	5.35	5.76	5.72	4.81	4.47	5.20
2027 - 2031	2.88	4.35	4.64	4.32	5.91	5.39	4.64	4.37	4.97
2032 - 2036	2.91	4.90	5.13	4.57	6.52	5.72	5.02	4.68	5.35
2037 - 2041	2.97	4.39	4.83	4.92	5.63	5.31	4.68	4.42	4.93

Predicted rates of owner occupation

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	0.85	0.71	0.69	0.75	0.79	0.73	0.77	0.74	0.76
2012 - 2016	0.86	0.73	0.70	0.75	0.82	0.76	0.79	0.77	0.78
2017 - 2021	0.88	0.76	0.73	0.78	0.84	0.78	0.81	0.80	0.80
2022 - 2026	0.89	0.76	0.74	0.81	0.84	0.79	0.81	0.82	0.81
2027 - 2031	0.90	0.79	0.76	0.81	0.87	0.82	0.83	0.84	0.83
2032 - 2036	0.92	0.82	0.80	0.85	0.89	0.85	0.86	0.86	0.86
2037 - 2041	0.93	0.84	0.82	0.87	0.90	0.87	0.87	0.88	0.88

Scenario 3

Mean house price levels

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	139,380	148,640	146,744	184,512	157,305	160,463	150,792	139,394	156,233
2012 - 2016	121,720	131,397	122,046	146,926	185,246	153,694	130,166	130,793	151,150
2017 - 2021	116,542	156,243	135,681	126,035	255,264	179,934	143,706	149,144	179,026
2022 - 2026	138,688	135,212	142,948	166,417	221,015	182,962	149,383	160,484	177,296
2027 - 2031	128,736	120,426	136,218	150,567	223,571	178,487	145,407	162,938	173,055
2032 - 2036	138,741	156,755	168,746	168,439	280,728	215,143	176,475	193,274	210,033
2037 - 2041	162,138	165,644	183,486	215,904	274,857	231,504	189,283	207,654	222,931

Mean house price to mean household income ratios

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	4.93	7.96	7.39	8.90	6.58	7.89	7.06	6.09	7.22
2012 - 2016	3.83	6.80	5.89	5.98	7.68	7.01	5.72	5.24	6.52
2017 - 2021	3.83	7.73	6.60	5.67	9.30	7.91	6.36	5.79	7.37
2022 - 2026	4.16	5.92	6.20	6.69	7.19	7.16	6.01	5.57	6.54
2027 - 2031	3.62	5.54	5.91	5.53	7.46	6.91	5.87	5.51	6.33
2032 - 2036	3.74	6.48	6.74	6.13	8.36	7.61	6.53	6.00	7.03
2037 - 2041	3.85	6.01	6.44	6.80	7.35	7.26	6.19	5.71	6.64

Lower quartile house price to lower quartile household income ratios

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	3.95	6.38	5.93	7.14	5.28	6.33	5.66	4.88	5.70
2012 - 2016	3.07	5.45	4.72	4.80	6.16	5.62	4.59	4.20	5.19
2017 - 2021	3.07	6.20	5.29	4.55	7.45	6.34	5.10	4.64	5.87
2022 - 2026	3.33	4.74	4.97	5.36	5.77	5.74	4.82	4.47	5.21
2027 - 2031	2.91	4.44	4.74	4.43	5.98	5.54	4.71	4.42	5.06
2032 - 2036	3.00	5.19	5.40	4.92	6.70	6.10	5.24	4.81	5.61
2037 - 2041	3.09	4.82	5.16	5.45	5.90	5.82	4.96	4.58	5.28

Predicted rates of owner occupation

Simulation period	Aberdeen city region	Ayrshire	Borders, Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee and Tayside	Edinburgh city region	Glasgow city region	Highlands, Moray and Islands	Stirling and Central Scotland	Scotland
2007 - 2011	0.85	0.71	0.69	0.75	0.79	0.73	0.77	0.74	0.76
2012 - 2016	0.86	0.73	0.70	0.75	0.82	0.76	0.79	0.77	0.78
2017 - 2021	0.88	0.76	0.73	0.78	0.84	0.78	0.81	0.80	0.80
2022 - 2026	0.89	0.76	0.74	0.81	0.84	0.79	0.81	0.82	0.81
2027 - 2031	0.90	0.79	0.76	0.81	0.87	0.82	0.83	0.84	0.83
2032 - 2036	0.92	0.83	0.80	0.85	0.89	0.85	0.86	0.86	0.86
2037 - 2041	0.93	0.84	0.82	0.87	0.90	0.87	0.87	0.88	0.88

The Scottish Government