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CHAPTER 4: CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES

(a) Priorities for longitudinal resource support

4.1 The vignettes presented in the previous chapter demonstrate clearly how longitudinal research resources can be brought together in programmes of analysis to analyse the effects of past, and potentially future, policies on the outcomes to which they are directed. The analytic strategy is fundamentally one of hypothesis testing in terms of a theory linking a string of policy actions to policy outcomes in particular areas. Thus we might hypothesise that raising the school leaving age will increase levels of overall attainment and establish at the same time that it does or does not have this effect. Clearly many studies contain the relevant variables needed to assess likely achievement of this objective. However what we really need to know is where investment will be best directed to ensure maximum returns at minimum cost.

4.2 We start this chapter by considering the types of studies likely to produce the best returns in evaluating the National Outcomes, including those currently existing and those new studies that are needed to complete the evidence base. We focus here on longitudinal studies that is to say studies that meet the following criteria:

• have coverage directly relevant to the evaluation of one or more National Outcomes
• collect data from a relatively large sample (minimum 1000) over an extended period
• have retained sufficient numbers of participants (1000) to support robust Scottjsh analysis
• have prospects of continuation either in their existing form or through replacement

Thus although, as the vignettes have shown, many other data sources also have relevance to the National Outcomes , including large cross-sectional surveys, especially those such as LFS with panel elements, they are not considered top priorities for longitudinal resource investment strategy.

4.3 For the purpose of investment strategy it is useful to group the studies in terms of the main features of design and coverage. This does not necessary imply that those highlighted are more valuable than others, merely that because they are designed to match the Scottish context they contain some of the fine contextual detail that particular National Outcomes demand. Investment is warranted in them for two main reasons:

1. The existing data collected in these studies comprise an underexploited evidence base for secondary analysis of much value for understanding life course processes in the Scottish context and appraising the effects of government policies at different times, including before and after devolution.
2. The value of longitudinal data multiplies the longer data collection continues (subject to numbers being maintained). Hence studies identified as relevant to the National Outcomes merit investment at the highest level to maximise the returns to be gained for policy from them.

(i) Scottish longitudinal studies

GUS/ MCS

4.4 In these terms two studies stand out as exceptionally valuable and meriting continuing investment Growing Up in Scotland ( GUS), which has been developed in parallel, and as an extension to, the UK-wide longitudinal study, Millennium Cohort Study ( MCS), supplies precisely the kind of information needed to link developmental analyses of the kind possible in the UK-wide study to the National Outcome concerned with ensuring that every child has a good start in life. The distinctive features of Scottish education, family childcare, health and education policy systems - all of which are potential suppliers of administrative data - could enhance its potential value further.

SLS

4.5 Another key study is the Scottish Longitudinal Survey ( SLS), not least because it supplies the potential for linkage of a range of other administrative data to a core data set of 274,000 individuals for whom census information is available. Apart from the vital event data such as births, deaths and cancer registrations linked to the census data, there is much potential for adding other administrative other - e.g. tax and benefits, housing and social care information from local authorities. This would not only develop SLS into a powerful analytic tool but could assist in the construction of sampling frames (based on aggregate/area level to protect individual anonymity) for more detailed longitudinal investigations.

SSLS

4.6 The third national study, Scottish School Leavers ( SSLS), is currently suspended, while under review and is unlikely to be continued. The basic problem with the study shared with its English counterpart - the Youth Cohort Study - is the postal method of data collection leading to large drop out rates especially of those on which policy is focussed, i.e. in England young people not education employment or training ( NEET) and in Scotland the More Choices and More Chances group. Data adjustment methods, including re-weighting to restore the distributions for key variables, such as gender and social class, to the distributions with which each cohort began, can rectify the problem to a certain extent. This is demonstrated in the ESRC-funded Education and Youth Transitions project in which harmonised datasets for analysing the Scottish and English youth transition data were constructed (see research exemplar below) ³³. And weighting is standard practice in government use of the English YCS data. However, such adjustments are often not satisfactory because of the complexity of individual transitions that will be lost if sizable proportions of young people in the policy target groups drop put of the survey. This was one of the factors that motivated the decision to establish the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England ( LSYPE), which has involved since 2004 annual data collection by interview with 19,000 young people and their parents and has relatively low drop-out. Continuing the study post-18 as part of UK Data Strategy with a view to running it from then on in partnership with a university is currently being scoped, alongside starting a new study in 2010.

4.7 The possibility of replacing the SSLS by individual level data held in the Careers Advice National database is under consideration with the possibility of linkage to individual data in the school years prior to transition into the labour market or further and higher education. The issue that arises then is whether this source would be able to supply data of the richness of a study like LSYPE to address the complexities of need that are manifested well before 16. In terms of national strategy there is a case for repeating the equivalent of GUS at this later 'youth' stage of the life-course where so many policy challenges arise on which the Careers Advice database would be the means of post 16 continuation. How far data collection would extend in the direction of harmonization with LSYPE as In the GUS/ MCS case would need to be considered.

4.8 The advantage of a Scottish survey of this kind rather than simply a replication in Scotland of an English survey such as LSYPE, is that, as in the case of GUS, proper attention can be given to the complex ways in which English and Scottish institutions and experiences for this age group are not the same from school into further education colleges and the Scottish qualification system. The main benefit of harmonisation where possible would be that in a quasi experimental sense comparisons between policies directed at the 16-19 period in England and Scotland could be compared in terms of the effects they were having on transition outcomes.

SSA

4.9 The Assessment of Achievement Programme/Scottish Survey of Achievement ( SSA) would be another important component of this development. As noted in the previous section the study is currently being re-designed to support the introduction of the Curriculum for Excellence. This means that the survey is likely to change substantially. Any future possibilities for longitudinal research will be dependent on the shape that this takes. The Individual Pupil Record system in England supplies a complete census of the state school population followed up though primary and secondary school ( PLASC). PLASC's major weakness, however, is the omission of the private sector.

Research Exemplar
Social Class inequalities in Education in England and Scotland
David Raffe, Lind Croxford, Christina Ianelli, Marina Shapira and Cathy Howieson
CES Special Briefing No 40

Governments across the UK aim to "narrow the attainment gap" or "close the opportunity gap" in education. One indicator of this gap is the rising inequality post 16 in levels of participation and attainment of young people from different social classes. The ESRC - funded Education and Youth Transitions Project used cohort survey data to examine the changing experiences of 14-18 year olds in England, Wales (Youth Cohort Study) and Scotland ( SSLS) between the mid 1980s and the end of the 1990s. Comparing England and Scotland, social class differences in participation in HE were higher in Scotland. However, these differences in entry to HE could largely be attributed in both countries to class differences in achieving the qualifications of entry to HE. Inequalities in entry to degree courses were wider than for HE as a whole.

SLSA

4.10 Following the period of tradition to adulthood the next stage of the life course identified in all industrialised societies as presenting critical policy challenges is the ever-extending transition to old age. Another specialised national longitudinal study with much policy potential, currently at the scoping stage, is the Scottish Longitudinal Study of Ageing ( SLSA). Including this Scottish version of the English Longitudinal study of Ageing ( ELSA) in the Scottish portfolio of longitudinal studies will again have much value for comparative purposes. Apart from supporting evaluation of the National Outcome concerned with living 'longer, healthier lives it would also have something to say about pension adequacy and the extent of and consequences of pensioner poverty and welfare more generally.

4.11 Moreover, the SLSA, if modelled on ELSA, while retaining the key Scottish context in its coverage, would make the study eligible for the Study of Health and Retirement in Europe ( SHARE) involving 14 European countries. This project is the leader in international comparative longitudinal study and receives substantial funding from the Institute of Ageing in the USA, bringing in another line of investment into longitudinal research in the UK, from which Scotland would be a beneficiary. A separate longitudinal study of ageing recently established in the Irish Republic ( TILDA), also part of SHARE, provides another basis of comparison from which Scotland would benefit.

(ii) UK wide longitudinal studies

4.12 These are of two kinds: those based on representative samples of UK or GB wide populations with samples sizes for the Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland proportionate to their population sizes and, more recently, studies with sample boosts to support analysis for each country in its own right. Of the UK-wide studies of the first kind, the new UKHLS - with annual follow-up up of 7,500 Scottish individuals and first data available in 2009/10 - absorbs the current British Household Panel Survey now in its 15 ^th year. BHPS had the Scottish part of its sample boosted in 2004 to 1,500 households twice the former size. Household panel surveys support short term-dynamic modelling of family processes, linking for example, the tax and benefit system to the experience of employment and unemployment in contrasting areas. UKHLS has the additional attraction of a 'modular' approach to coverage whereby certain topics enter the survey at different times and repeated measurement is at longer intervals than the annual family economics and employment data.

4.13 As the UKHLS matures, opportunities will steadily increase for examining the long-term consequences of policy exposures in relation to different outcomes of which clearly the economy, family, health and education development policy areas are the most prominent.

4.14 The British 1958 and 1970 and Millennium cohort studies 1958, 1979, 2000) also offer much secondary analysis potential, but with smaller sample numbers for the 1958 and 1970 cohorts ( NCDS, BCS70) for Scottish analysis - usually up to 1000 individuals. Such numbers are adequate for Scotland - England comparisons within the dataset as a whole, or in statistical models treating the England-Scotland difference as a binary variable. But with missing data taken into account the numbers limit Scotland-specific analyses to fairly general research questions. As noted previously, the exception is the 2000 study, MCS, for which a sample boost brings Scottish numbers to around 2000. The area-based sample design ('electoral divisions' in Scotland) and over-sampling of these to boost the numbers in disadvantaged groups are other important features. One anomaly, however, should be noted as it has raised questions about the suitability of MCS data for Scottish purposes. Differential drop-out rates have been observed between Scotland and the rest of the UK with the less educated parents tending to leave the study proportionately more in Scotland. If MCS was a cross-sectional survey, this could be more of problem than it is in a longitudinal survey where the first wave data can be used in differential weighting of the more recent data to restore distributions of key variables such as parents' education to their original form. However, the differential drop-out is a research challenge that needs to be met. Why more Scottish parents drop out needs to be understood and remedial action taken to avoid an accumulating bias as the survey proceeds.

4.15 For future cohort studies, following the example of the MCS, there is therefore still a very strong case, in terms of cost effectiveness, for building in a substantial Scottish boost from the outset. This could be usefully coupled with the inclusion of a 'core' module translated into, or devoted specifically, to the Scottish context. A strong case has been made for a new birth cohort study to be launched in the UK in 2012/13. This would be the opportunity to ensure that, as with MCS, any such cohort study had adequate numbers for independent Scottish analysis and that all potential sources of bias, including those identified with differential drop-out between England and Scotland, are controlled.

4.16 The advantage of the cohort studies, as with potentially UKHLS, is that bridging the 30 year gap in the national series - 1946, 1958, 1970, 2000 - they span a long historical period enabling study of the effects of socio-economic and policy change on outcomes in cohorts born at different times at different stages in the cohort members' lives. Even the 30 years gap in the historical record between 1970 and 2000 can be bridged, at least in part for England, through the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children ( ALSPAC) - 1992 birth cohort) and the Longitudinal Study of Young people ( LSYPE - 1990 birth cohort). Such a record is not only of historical interest but valuable in policy terms because it supplies baselines for the effects of policy change the outcomes of which are important for future policy development. Thus the termination of the 11 plus in most, but not all, Local Authorities in England gives the opportunity to assess, using cohort study data, the effects of selective as opposed to comprehensive schooling on long-term adult outcomes ³⁴. To build routinely a Scottish dimension into such comparisons would be immensely valuable. Hence investment in the studies continues to be a high priority.

(iii) Specialist studies

4.17 Turning to the more specialist studies, three area-based studies stand out as being particularly important in relation to the National Outcomes :

• In the policy domain of health, the West of Scotland 2007 study offers much potential for research' - within a multilevel framework, with potential generalisation of findings across the whole of the UK.
• The Edinburgh study of youth transitions and crime is an immensely rich data set linking administrative data into an annual data collection on young people's offending behaviour, set against a wide range of other characteristics for which data have been collected.
• The Go Well study in Glasgow with a strong health theme offers comparable insights into the basis of community development in deprived areas.

4.18 There is much uncertainty, however, about the future of all these studies - none of which feature in the UK National Data Strategy. The Edinburgh study is, for example, currently suspended through lack of funding, just at a time when it could do much to illuminate entry into adult criminality and desistance from it. Similarly the Medical Research Council - funded the West of Scotland Study, with much area level as well as individual data, has reached the end of its programme. Both these studies offer exceptionally rich opportunities for longitudinal research in an area of key policy importance - 'lives safe from crime, disorder and danger'. The infrastructures built to maintain these studies would also not be easy to reconstruct. There is a strong case for facilitating their continuation through new investment.

4.19 The Go Well Glasgow study run by a consortium of organisations including The University of Glasgow, Communities Scotland, NHS Scotland and Glasgow City Council is a multifaceted longitudinal programme of much relevance to the Health, Community, Public Services and Inequalities National Outcomes. Doubts about generalisability need to be set against the richness of data supplying insights into the processes of community life. Apart from supporting continuation, when the need arises, there is a case for replicating the study in other Scottish cities.

(iv) New studies

4.20 Policy areas neglected by those studies already mentioned relate to those outcomes, which we found it difficult to map onto existing longitudinal survey resources. The community, built and natural environment, outcomes and the related outcome to do with facilitating business growth are difficult to evaluate by means of existing national longitudinal survey data. The SLS with its massive 274,000 sample size is the only one that comes near but its coverage is limited to the census and registration data that it currently contains. The IDBR provides a good sampling frame for longitudinal studies of businesses and, by extension, the work force they employ. A review of administrative data sources would enable the potential for new studies devoted to these contexts to be adequately assessed.

Research Exemplar
Male worklessness and the rise of lone parenthood in Britain
Oxford Centre for Population Research Working Paper No 30
Robert Rowthorn and David Webster

De-industrialisation has eliminated many male jobs in Great Britain. Using geographical comparisons
based on census data this project estimated the resulting fall in male employment explains between
38% and 59% of the 1.116 m increase in lone parent families over the period 1971-2000. The
greatest impact was in the areas, which had suffered most from industrial decline. Census data was
used to achieve sufficient numbers in the relevant statuses, but being cross-sectional could not
address directly the flows in and out of them thus requiring very strong assumptions to infer causality.
The new SLS and the UKLHS would enable a more penetrating analysis strengthening the
robustness of the conclusions.

4.21 Mobility studies building from the Scottish longitudinal study could also be an important feature, offering the opportunity, through the UK-wide aspects of the study, to pursue migration into and out of Scotland in relation to migration across the whole of the UK.

4.22 With respect to new studies, the most obvious gaps in the longitudinal resource portfolio are in relation to business development, the rural environment and national identity. There is a case for scoping studies to assess the potential for new longitudinal surveys in these areas. Alternatively, if the cost of such investment in new studies is considered too high, gaining space in large scale studies like UKHLS for Scottish modules devoted to them could be the way forward.

(b) Longitudinal resource strategy

(i) Raising awareness

4.23 A common theme of our interviews with officials was the model of the evaluation process that relied primarily on the monitoring of outcomes (through indicators) in response to policy interventions. Discontinuities in the time series forming the administrative record could then be used to infer success or failure of the intervention. Similarly in the case of ongoing service provision, discontinuities in the administrative record could again be taken to signify either improvement or deterioration.

4.24 The role of longitudinal research as such was seen as fairly marginal to these endeavours though in most interviews it was recognised that there could be an expanding role for it to play. The attraction is in the development of models that enable policy makers to gain insights into the likely effects of policy implementation options and to point directly to ways of developing new policy options. The key criterion is robustness relying on various strategies to increase confidence in findings such as triangulation across studies, and enough relevant variables in any given analysis to control for possible selection biases. In these terms the use of longitudinal research in the evaluation of the National Outcomes and through them the strategic objectives, rather than focusing on the specific monitoring indicators was seen as making a lot of sense.

4.25 Thus longitudinal studies that encompass a part of the life course - early years, youth, mature adulthood, old age - to which the policy question is directed can support the testing and development of a model linking experience and circumstances to outcomes. If, for example, variations in curriculum content and teaching strategy early on in schooling can be demonstrated to predict improved educational performance later, then investment in this development to shape more closely these process factors in the direction the model indicates are predicted to bring about improvements.

4.26 Cross-sectional data collected administratively or by dedicated surveys such as LFS, Family Resources Survey, National Crime Survey and so on may have a key role in policy monitoring at the level population as whole and in subgroups. By the follow up of particular age croups from one survey to the next 'pseudo cohorts' can be constructed, which can extend their scope further. However the key missing element will always be what gives longitudinal studies their particular strength - the response to policy at the individual level. We may observe from cross-sectional data the rise of employment rates following regeneration associated with the successful commonwealth games bid to be held in 2014 in East Glasgow, but without follow-up of individuals exposed to it in the area leading up to and following the games we cannot be certain who is getting the new jobs and how long they are retaining them.

4.27 However, despite investment in major longitudinal resources including GUS and the top-ups in the BHPS and the MCS, it is generally considered that these and other longitudinal resources are underexploited for policy purposes. The Office of the Chief Researcher organises a programme of in-house method training which includes enhancing understanding of longitudinal research possibilities for inclusion in all policy analysts' repertoires. But clearly there is a case for expansion, especially in policy areas where longitudinal research is not much in evidence.

Ruth Lupton
Institute of Education
Research Project: The Association between Housing and Life Chances: Control Measures

A good example of the use of longitudinal research for policy development is reflected in SG recent investment in a Scottish component of the further analysis of data collected on UK social housing in the 1946, 1958 and 1970 birth cohort studies. This follows preliminary results showing evidence of rising social exclusion among social housing residents in the more recent cohorts. The new analysis will supply through statistical modelling insights into the reasons for this phenomenon pointing to the features of social housing, including the attributes of those who use it, that need to be changed to reverse the social exclusion process.

(ii) Integrated approach

4.28 Raising awareness is central to the judgements that need to be made about investment in longitudinal research resources. Many of the surveys prioritised in the first part of the chapter address the interests of more then one department, but typically decisions about them and longitudinal investment strategy more generally will tend to be taken in isolation. Rather on the lines of the UK Data Strategy, there is much to be said for the development of longitudinal resources collectively to serve the whole of government and indirectly the academic community. This extends beyond support for a particular longitudinal survey to the linkage of administrative data that will add substantially to its value for policy purposes. The LSRN has effectively mapped longitudinal resources of relevance to Scotland and would appear to supply good foundations for such a development.

(iii) Administrative data linkage

4.29 Another theme that has arisen repeatedly through the study is the role of administrative data, either linked across different sources - where Scotland may have the legislative advantage over England - or to major longitudinal studies like the Household Panel Surveys, the Birth Cohort Studies or local areas studies like Go Well Glasgow. Subject to the necessary data protection and confidentiality requirements being met and appropriate quality controls on the data itself such linkage will add considerable value to what is available currently within any one research source.

4.30 As recognised in the UK National Data Strategy, administrative data offers a rich and largely untapped resource for longitudinal research, especially through linkage to ongoing longitudinal studies. In some cases, such as WPLS, the data is already organised in the form of a longitudinal data set for use under controlled conditions by researchers. In other cases such as Criminal Justice records, for example, recording inconsistencies may limit current use. The prime example of the benefits to be gained potentially from data linkage is the Scottish longitudinal census-based study ( SLS). Census information on the 274,000 individual records and the vital events such as births and deaths attached to them can be seen as just the first stage of administrative data linkage. Expanding this linkage to such datasets as AAP/ SSA, AHEPD, IDBR, WPLS, SCORE, and so on, would produce much added value. It could also support implementation of one of the recommendations emerging from the work of the expert group namely the development of the SLS resource as a sampling frame to assist in the identification of special area level sub samples, either for longitudinal surveys or for qualitative case study purposes.

4.31 Clearly there are major issues to be resolved in such a development especially in connection with data protection, disclosure and access, all of which needs much detailed appraisal. However in this instance much work has already been done through the UK National Data Strategy on which Scottish access policy can capitalise. In fact the Director of the SLS led the scoping work for ESRC on which current policy is largely based ³⁵. Scottish Government strategy could sensibly mirror that suggested for longitudinal survey resources - namely integration of data needs and the procedures for linking and using them through a single cross-government plan.

(iv) Local factors

4.32 The relevance of particular data sources to policy delivery and outcomes at local as opposed to national level was a common theme in all our interviews. The tension between locally developed monitoring indicators and the need for standardisation to understand the operation of policy across the country as a whole in a sense parallels the operationalisation of the National Outcomes and needs to be addressed, not least because it could inform the coverage of multipurpose surveys such as GUS. Where is the right balance to be struck without limiting the requirements at both levels? National evaluation requires standardized measures but the local context needs to be accurately reflected in the assessment of performance for local purposes. An extended period of dialogue will be needed until agreement about an optimum set of indicators to meet both purposes is reached.

4.33 This brings back the issue of measurement. The national performance framework offers a comprehensive approach to measuring performance in terms of 15, in some ways, rather general outcomes without tying performance down to specified targets. It has become clear, however, in talking to specialists in the different policy fields, of which housing is a particular example, that some National Outcomes need further development in perhaps new directions to encompass better the policy intention. Some outcomes link relatively loosely to the five strategic objectives that inform the whole performance framework. Others such as those concerned with national identity, the natural environment and 'Greener Scotland', are difficult to operationalise using existing longitudinal resources. Much of the drive for such development of the performance network again comes from the negotiations locally over the 'Single Outcome Agreements'. As some of our informants saw it there needs to be a continual flow of influence up and down the levels of the whole system, which takes further the specification of the strategic objectives and their linkage to specific outcomes as set out in Figure 1.1 and the means of measuring them.

4.34 A model for research in this framework is offered by the Glasgow Go Well study where Glasgow University's Department of Urban Studies and local and national government agencies have combined forces to launch a longitudinal study of disadvantaged communities in Glasgow with the focus on housing and health This kind of collaboration which can also play an important part in capacity building (last section), could be replicated in other cities.

(v) Comparative analysis

4.35 Countering our initial approach of classifying studies and data sources in terms of their 'Scottishness' were the strong arguments put to us about the advantage of comparative analysis at every level of the system. Comparison of data between areas, between regions and between countries within the UK and across Europe for individuals and the communities of which they are members offers opportunities for natural experiments to test the relationship between exposure to different policies and their predicted outcomes.

4.36 The comparative framework includes policy outcome comparisons with other countries of the United Kingdom, in which UK-wide studies, such as the Household Panel studies, the British Cohort Studies and SLS, are particularly valuable. Comparisons can also extend to countries across Europe. Development of a Scottish study of aging on the lines of ELSA opens up the possibility of joining the 15 country Study of Health Retirement in Europe ( SHARE) comparative study which is seen as a model for this kind of cross-national research. The BHPS is already part of a five country comparative study based on a harmonized household panel data set (the "Cross National Equivalent File" ³⁶) involving the USA, Canada, Germany and the UK from which Scottish policy could benefit.

4.37 Within Scotland itself, there is merit in building as much complementarity and harmonisation between national and local measurement as possible through the development of multi level modelling design frameworks. Initially these would be based on administrative data, making the case again for the cross data source linkage that this requires. Such large-scale studies as the LFS, the new UKHLS and the MCS, with its multi level design and the Edinburgh (Youth Transitions and Crime), Glasgow (Go Well) and West of Scotland (07) longitudinal studies also have a role to play in adding richness to the data in particular subject areas and localities.

4.38 A specifically Scottish study like GUS has much value in supplying context and detail for measurement that is unlikely to be present in UK wide-studies. Hence the ideal solution appears to be a balance between the two sources: UK-wide, Scottish national and Scottish area-based longitudinal data. The 270,000-strong census-based SLS, modelled on its English counterpart the LS meets this requirement, while having the distinctive Scottish features that increase its value for Scottish policy purposes.

(c) Capacity and capability

4.39 Finally we return to an issue that has arisen earlier in this chapter and was raised repeatedly in collecting the evidence for the study is capacity. This operates at two levels:

• provision of longitudinal data to support evaluation wherever needed
• the human resources, including capability, time and technical backup to make the most effective use of the data

4.40 The first of these depends on the development of the comprehensive longitudinal research strategy suggested earlier and policy governing it to ensure availability of data to match research need. The success of the strategy also requires expertise at every stage of the production process through longitudinal survey design, data collection and analysis, backed by relevant software and expertise in using it. This applies as much in the commissioning of longitudinal research as in conducting it. The office of the Chief Researchers programme of in house training goes some way in this direction, but could usefully expand to take advantage of the new opportunities a national strategy provides. Investment in training in such areas as longitudinal survey methods and statistics may thus be seen as an essential counterpart to investment in longitudinal resources.

4.41 Much research will inevitably be contracted out under the pressure of time and resources. In the area of Health for example much work is done by NHS Health Scotland. Hence capacity building is not restricted to Government, but to all engaged in using longitudinal data, i.e. in the government agencies, the private and voluntary sectors and the universities all of whom undertake commissioned work for government.

4.42 Scotland has a proud record in quantitative social and economic scientific research, including pioneering longitudinal enquiries such as the Aberdeen study and the SSLS. But as in most academic fields capability to undertake and especially analyse the results of longitudinal research has not expanded adequately to meet the new demands. There are major initiatives by ESRC, mainly based in England, to build capacity such as the National Centre for Research Methods ( NCRM) with a 'Hub' in Southampton and six 'Nodes', none of which are in Scotland. The Welsh administration has expanded the funding for the node of the Centre based in Cardiff. There is also the Research Development Initiative ( RDI) comprising novel methods training activities in new research areas. It is important for the Scottish Government to link to and invest in such infrastructure development to meet Scottish needs. Joint studentships linking government and academic research interests' through on the collaborative CASE model under ESRC's Knowledge Transfer programme are already in place in Scotland and could usefully be extended further.

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