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CHAPTER 3: POLICY SCENARIOS AND VIGNETTES
3.1 The previous chapter mapped the 15 strategic outcomes across the different longitudinal research resources that could be used to evaluate them. In this chapter we take the exercise a stage further by examining through a series of vignettes, the kinds of research scenarios that could be pursued. In each case we establish what the theoretical proposition or propositions are that lie behind the outcome to which the Government aspires. We then map out the means of achieving it through the inputs available in terms of provision from the different policy areas - principally at national level, but also considering their impact ultimately as delivery systems locally. In each case we identify the measures available in the different datasets to enable us to operationalise the variables relevant to the input-outcome connection. This takes account of short-term and long-term aims, some of which are not easily operationalised from the outcomes as specified. Thus, for example, major economic shifts affecting either the population, or the business enterprise at the centre of it, are likely to take some time to materialise. The best kinds of studies are therefore those that enable short, medium and long-term assessments to be made.
3.2 The exercise does not attempt to be exhaustive in the sense that every study or dataset that could conceivably contribute to the research scenario is included. Rather we seek coherence in linking the potential contributions of key studies - also taking account of coverage issues, sample size and attrition. Each study needs to be viewed in the context of the data specification to which it is directed with subtle variation to be expected from one source to the next. Triangulation across sources is the best assurance of robust conclusions.
3.3 The outcomes are grouped in terms of the 5 strategic objectives which enable us, in very general terms, to approach the task in terms of 8 broad policy domains: economy; education; health; protection; community; environment; inequality; and identity. The outcomes have been re-ordered slightly in order to group them under these headings. The groupings are illustrated below:
A. Economy
Outcome 1: We live in a Scotland that is the most attractive place for doing business in Europe
Outcome 2: We realise our full economic potential with more and better employment opportunities for our people
B. Education
Outcome 3: We are better educated, more skilled and more successful, renowned for our research and innovation
Outcome 4: Our young people are successful learners, confident individuals, effective contributors and responsible citizens
Outcome 5: Our children have the best start in life and are ready to succeed
C. Health
Outcome 6: We live longer, healthier lives
D. Protection
Outcome 8: We have improved the life chances for children, young people and families at risk.
Outcome 9: We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger.
E. Community
Outcome 10: We live in well-designed, sustainable places where we are able to access the amenities and services we need.
Outcome 11: We have strong, resilient and supportive communities where people take responsibility for their own actions and how they affect others.
Outcome 15: Our public services are high quality, continually improving, efficient and responsive to local people's needs.
F. Environment
Outcome 12: We value and enjoy our built and natural environment and protect it and enhance it for future generations.
Outcome 14: We reduce the local and global environmental impact of our consumption and production.
G. Inequality
Outcome 7: We have tackled the significant inequalities in Scottish society.
H. Identity
Outcome 13: We take pride in a strong, fair and inclusive national identity.
3.4 There is a degree of similarity between some of the National Outcomes listed above and the Scottish Government's seven Purpose targets described in Chapter 1. These are a challenging set of high level mostly economic targets that include specific benchmarks which will track progress in Scotland's economic performance. Of the seven targets, those referring to 'solidarity' (which is concerned with the increase of income, particularly for the most economically disadvantaged), 'cohesion' (where the focus is in narrowing the participation gap between Scotland's best and worst performing regions) and 'sustainability' (which is concerned with reducing emissions) have perhaps the most similarity with issues addressed specifically by the national outcomes.
3.5 A particular focus is on process variables that are amenable to influence, i.e. policy can be sensibly directed at modifying or moderating their influence through the injection of relevant resources. The effect of the policy can be modelled by variables reflecting the different outcomes of the process. Other variables describing the different demographic contexts in which the outcome is happening are relatively fixed features in the social environment not amenable to policy influence. Nevertheless such contexts can reflect strong propensity to risk (or protection). Thus apart from their importance as conditioning variables to hold constant in the analysis of effects they also direct attention to sections of the population where policy intervention is particularly needed. Thus obesity in children, reflecting often health inequalities related to class and geography may be seen as amenable to policy influence through, for example, a health education programme. The tailoring of the programme to different sections of the population will be informed by such demographic features as gender, class, ethnicity and location.
3.6 In what follows, we set out such an analysis of variables and data sources for each of the 15 National Outcomes. Each vignette is arranged into four sections. The first provides a definition of the key concepts contained within the National Outcome that requires measurement. The second outlines the benefits of a longitudinal approach and considers investigations of the issues within the outcome thus 'operationalising' it in research terms. The third section appraises the potential contribution towards evaluation of the outcome that could be made from existing longitudinal resources. The fourth highlights any key gaps, obstacles or challenges related to the use of longitudinal data for evaluation of the outcome.
A ECONOMY
Outcome 1: We live in a Scotland that is the most attractive place for doing business in Europe
Definition of key concepts
A1.1 This outcome is identified solely with the objective of a 'wealthier and fairer' Scotland, which is directed towards a situation where businesses and the people who work in them and consume their products are able to increase their wealth and more people can share fairly in that wealth.
A1.2 The Spending Review states that "private business is the principal driver of increased productivity, employment growth, competition, innovation and national prosperity" 5. On this basis, an "attractive place for doing business" might be one where business set-up is relatively straight forward, encouraged and well supported, resources such as the necessary workforce (the right numbers and with the right skills or, and perhaps more importantly, the capacity to acquire them) and workspace (of the right size, location and with good transport links) are readily available and sustainable over the long term. Other aspects of infrastructure such as good quality education and housing for the workforce are also important for ensuring that the effective businesses can thrive and expand.
A1.3 An attractive business environment may also be one in which businesses are encouraged to take risks, and are supported in doing so, especially as these risks will often result in more striking instances of success although many will fail. Thus progress against this outcome should not only be measured through businesses achieving and sustaining economic successes but the extent to which risk-taking is part of the economic approach.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
A1.4 The benefit of having longitudinal data available to explore progress on this outcome is that there is an opportunity to identify those factors that are conducive to commercial success and those that are likely to result in business closure. By doing so, policy interventions can seek to create an 'attractive' business environment. For example, analysis would explore the extent to which each individual factor, and combination of factors (local infrastructure) - business support, skilled workforce, education system, housing, transport - impacts on positive economic outcomes defined via high employment rates, profitability and economic stability.
A1.5 To measure progress against this outcome, therefore, the data must present the opportunity to look at business start-up rates, to monitor changes in the number, types, and locations of new business and to track the success of businesses (particularly new businesses) over time and to understand what level of failure is a necessary accompaniment to a vibrant economy. On the latter point therefore, information on the number of businesses closing down and their reasons for doing so must also be available. Data must also be available on the local infrastructure which supports business including the skills and availability of the workforce, access to schools and colleges, public transport and other services, and the quality and availability of good housing stock. Furthermore, to assess whether or not Scotland is the most attractive place for doing business in Europe, whatever data is generated to measure performance against this outcome in Scotland must also be available for other European countries. In terms of risk-taking, the educational and cultural pre-requisites of a risk-taking society may also be investigated.
Contribution of existing data
A1.6 Only limited longitudinal data is available which is of relevance to the measurement of this outcome. However, the Inter-Departmental Business Register ( IDBR), being a comprehensive administrative dataset covering businesses in all parts of the economy across the UK, provides particularly detailed data for Scotland.
A1.7 Data from the IDBR, which is already used to provide an overview of Scottish economic development and prospects, could potentially be used longitudinally to track the prospects of businesses at various levels - either as whole organisations with numerous separate, but related businesses (enterprise groups), as single, but larger, businesses with various sites ('enterprises'), or as individual sites such as a factory or shop (local unit). The IDBR can be used to look at businesses of a particular size (either in terms of employees, or turnover) or within a particular industrial classification (such as manufacturing or construction). Hence whether or not Scotland is an 'attractive' place to do business can be explored across business of very different characteristics. For example, using this dataset, the relative attractiveness of Scotland as a place to do business could be compared between a small retail outfit, and a large multi-national corporation. This would involve identifying suitable businesses in the database which matched these definitions and collecting baseline data on their profitability and turnover for example. Tracking the progress of these groups of businesses over time, and comparing their relative performance, would allow an understanding of which is more likely to thrive, and why. This evidence can then influence policies and interventions to support failing businesses or to create an environment which reduces the likelihood of failure. Furthermore, within a particular classification, successful ( i.e. those who have thrived over time) and unsuccessful businesses could be identified and explanations explored for their relative success or otherwise.
A1.8 Whilst presenting a significantly more limited dataset for Scotland compared to the IDBR, in terms of the type and number of establishments included in the survey, WERS does present a range of additional, and extremely useful, data not included in the IDBR about the particular employment practices operated by each organisation in the survey, as well as providing most of the information about the business which would also be available via the IDBR. Furthermore, by linking in data from the cross-sectional employee survey, WERS presents a perspective (of the employee) not available from IDBR. Importantly, for the purposes of this outcome, WERS data not only quickly allows the identification of businesses which have not lasted for the duration of the panel, but also enables the clear identification of change in business characteristics (such as the type of products made, or the number of employees) and the exploration of reasons for these changes during the period between data collection. In a longitudinal sense, this additional data is potentially important for identifying further factors which contribute to the success or otherwise of businesses in Scotland. Thus, research involving this dataset may explore the relative impact on economic stability or success of changing business practice in line with wider business changes. For example, WERS data could explore the impact of introducing family friendly or flexible working policies on long-term staff retention and productivity. Family friendly policies and flexible working are treated as explanatory variables along with other elements of the business, and perhaps the wider market; staff retention or increased productivity are treated as outcomes. A further example would be tracking the impact of varying business rates on employment, locational decisions and profitability. Analysis permits an understanding of the individual effect of these inputs on the outcomes, all other changes and factors considered.
A1.9 The business-related datasets represent key examples of the power of data-linkage. For example, information on earnings taken from ASHE can be linked, by organisation, to WERS data. WERS data can also be linked to the IDBR and to longitudinal financial performance information collected as part of the Annual Business Inquiry. 6
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
A1.10 Examination of the analytical needs of this outcome highlighted the necessity for good quality business data that can track the fortunes of business operating in Scotland. However, the challenge is incorporating within that analysis the contribution of numerous other, non-business factors which are essential for a thriving business environment requiring complex, multi-level analytical techniques.
Outcome 2: We realise our full economic potential with more and better employment opportunities for our people
Definition of key concepts
A1.11 This outcome, like that related to doing business in Scotland, is solely associated with the objective of a 'wealthier and fairer' Scotland. There are a number of key issues that it addresses and which have to be extrapolated to assess our ability to measure it using longitudinal data.
A1.12 Realising our 'full economic potential' would suggest creating a situation where everyone who is able to work, in whatever capacity, can do so. One obvious aggregate measure of this would be the rate of employment or unemployment; increasing employment, and decreasing unemployment would suggest progress is being made against this area of this outcome. At the individual level job history since leaving school is needed. However, it is also important to consider work which is unpaid and the implicit financial contribution this makes to the economy.
A1.13 Having 'more' employment opportunities could simply be interpreted as creating an economic environment where jobs are readily available. However, it also implies that those jobs represent a greater variety of employment opportunities, and opportunities which are available to those groups who face particular barriers when trying to find suitable work, or are more suitable for the available workforce. Data from the 2006 Scottish Employer Skills Survey indicates that 8% of workplaces have vacancies that they cannot fill because applicants lack the necessary skills, qualifications or experience. This accounts for about 1.1% of total employee jobs. Improving the utilisation of skills in the workplace and stimulating increased demand for skills from employers is key to the success of this outcome as acknowledged by the Skills for Scotland strategy document. 7
A1.14 'Better' employment opportunities can be construed as a greater number of higher skilled and better paid jobs, as suggested in the Spending Review, but there are a huge number of variable employment factors, beyond skill-level and wages, which could be improved to create 'better' jobs. These include management/employee relations, employee benefits, availability of flexible working arrangements and family-friendly policies, employee pension schemes and trade union membership. Longitudinal data enables changes in these factors to be monitored over time within individual business, or at industry or sector level.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
A1.15 Information on employment rates is already available from a range of sources, most prominently the Labour Force Survey which provides quarterly updates. Whilst essential, and useful, this cross-sectional data is limited in that it does not determine what proportions of those who are unemployed remain unemployed over the longer term or who eventually return to work. To measure progress against the outcome in this sense would require longitudinal data which can track the longer-term job histories and prospects of those individuals who are unemployed at any particular point in time. In particular, longitudinal survey data can permit an investigation of the factors and motivations which lead to those individuals returning to, and remaining in, paid employment, and/or the barriers which prevent them from doing so. With a large enough sample, these features of labour market participation can be examined for particular sub-groups who face specific barriers such as parents, disabled people and some minority or ethnic communities. Longitudinal data can also be used to investigate the reasons why people become unemployed.
A1.16 Two levels of data are required here - one which provides information on individuals, the other which provides information on businesses and the ability to link these data is key. At the individual level, detail on the characteristics of those groups who find it most difficult to obtain employment, the barriers that prevent them from taking employment, the interventions or processes that allow them back into work, and the situations that allow them to stay there must be available. With many of these groups representing small, and hard-to-reach, sections of the population as a whole, this is a particularly challenging task. At the business level, information which describes the characteristics of the working environment and working practices is necessary along with information which measures the demand for and utilisation of skills by businesses.
A1.17 The data needs to be linked to inputs in terms of the skills acquisition and employability of individuals and employment opportunities offered by businesses leading to high quality outputs measured by earnings, high GDP, a narrowing earnings gap and other national and local economic indicators. Longitudinal data allows modelling at an individual level of patterns of employment and unemployment over the long-term with factors explaining employment and unemployment identified. For example, information on gross flows over time between different labour force categories (employed, unemployed and economically inactive) can be examined providing detail about people who have moved between the categories. Also, longitudinal information is useful for following the subsequent activities and circumstances of people affected by specific policy initiatives, e.g. business start-up grants in regeneration areas and to compare them with other groups in the population not subject to the policy. At a business level, those businesses or sectors which are most pro-active in improving their employment opportunities can be identified and lessons learned. On the other hand, those businesses where no improvement is made can be targeted, reasons identifed and specific interventions designed to assist them.
Contribution of existing data
A1.18 The Labour Force Survey is the key source for employment and unemployment statistics for government departments in the UK. Despite having only a limited longitudinal element covering 12 months, by following respondents intensively over that period, acute periods of unemployment can be identified along with any return to work allowing an investigation of the characteristics of the individuals in such a situation. The survey also contains key outcome data in the form of income. The longitudinal Scottish sample equates to around 2000 households for any single 12 month period. With a sample of that size it is likely that some sub-group analysis would be possible.
A1.19 The Scottish School Leavers Study ( SSLS) provides a key source of information on the employment and economic activity of young people in Scotland. This is widely recognised as an important transitional period for young people and is one which can influence later employment patterns and economic activity. With four waves of data collection covering an eight year period, SSLS presents a fairly comprehensive dataset allowing the investigation of employment, education and training trajectories over that time. However it is a postal survey and there are acknowledged difficulties in using it - as considered in the next section.
A1.20 Unlike the Labour Force Survey, or indeed, the Scottish School Leavers Study, the BHPS8 is not a study focussed specifically on education, employment or economic activity. However, employment information is a 'core' element of the study questionnaire, which means it is elicited at every sweep. The employment module collects information on economic activity and details of employment. As such it is valuable for investigating, , in quite some detail, changes in individual employment patterns - length of time in different jobs, periods of unemployment, change of jobs, over a considerable period of time (up to 15 years of data are currently available for some cases stretching from 1991 to 2006). Furthermore, since the Scottish sample boost in 1999 there is a respectable sample size of around 3000 Scottish participants. The vast amount of additional contextual data collected routinely as part of this study mean that more detailed and complex modelling of particular labour market patterns, accounting for the impact of wider social factors, is possible with this dataset. Indeed, even the addition of a single question at one sweep - a possibility regularly offered by the design of BHPS - can then be used as an independent variable, opening up a range of policy relevant analytical possibilities. The same degree of detailed contextual information is not available, for example, in LFS or SSLS.
A1.21 The British birth cohort studies are also well placed for examination of issues relevant to this outcome. By providing life-course data from birth up to adulthood (amounting to 50 years worth of data for the 1958 cohort) these studies are particularly well-placed to describe individual trajectories, including those relating to economic activity. Indeed, data from the various cohorts has already been used to model such phenomena as patterns of female employment and patterns of return to work after childbearing. 9
A1.22 A large number of other resources are useful for the evaluation of this outcome. To investigate such topics as demand for skills many of the business-related resources are key - particularly where employer and employee data can be linked. The Workplace Employee Relations Survey ( WERS) is an extremely useful dataset for assessing progress against this outcome at the organisation level, although it is limited somewhat by the small Scottish sample. However, it does contain some useful data about organisational approaches to staff recruitment and training and on the demand for skills by employers. The Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study ( WPLS), an administrative dataset created by merging data from the Department for Work and Pensions and HM Customs and Revenue, is a particularly important resource for determining progress on this outcome. For all those who are unemployed and in receipt of benefits, the dataset can provide significant data on periods of unemployment, and information on return to employment, job retention and jobcentre interventions. Furthermore, it is very useful for Scottish analysis, as with a 100% sample of DWP clients there is a large Scottish sample.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
A1.23 The LFS is undoubtedly of some use longitudinally for exploring individual changes in labour market categories, and provides tremendous detail on employment characteristics as well as reasons for leaving jobs or not seeking work. But the relatively short time-span covered by the LFS longitudinal element means that there will be significant gaps in our knowledge where the point of return to work occurs after the last data collection. This renders LFS of less use for examination of the long-term unemployed. Whilst repeated cohort studies as the Scottish School Leavers Survey ( SSLS) help fill the gap there are also significant limitations to SSLS data which restrict its use. In particular, the study suffered from considerable attrition between initial and final waves of data collection of each cohort, particularly among harder-to-reach groups, resulting in a heavily biased longitudinal sample over the 4 waves. With the most recent cohort, for example, only 21% of those included at the initial wave also responded at the final wave. Weighting of the data to restore of the original distribution can compensate for the biases to a certain extent. But the disproportionate scale of attrition of particular sub-groups, including those in the 'More Choices, More Chances' group (formerly NEET - not in education, employment or training) can mean that a key benefit of the data is lost in relation to this outcome.
A1.24 WPLS, with the ability to track individuals over the long-term, and by avoiding attrition problems suffered by panel studies such as SSLS presents a particularly appealing option. However, access to the dataset is extremely limited and it also lacks the detailed social contextual data that is collected by surveys, making it difficult, in a longitudinal sense, to develop from it in isolation from other data sources explanations for unemployment that are caused by, for example, health or familial factors. It would seem necessary therefore, to have some combination of survey and administrative data to permit a truly comprehensive understanding of the issues central to this outcome.
Research Exemplar
Dale-Olsen, H. () "Using linked Employer-Employee Data to Analyse Fringe Benefits Policies: Norwegian Experiences" in Bryson, A., Forth, J. and Barber, C. (Eds.) Making Linked Employer-Employee Data Relevant to Policy, DTI Occassional Paper No.4,
Over 50 per cent of firms in Norway offer fringe benefits as part of their compensation package for workers, but their incentives for doing so are not well understood. Using linked employer-employee data provided by Statistics Norway and surveys of managers, this paper investigates the relationship between fringe benefits, worker retention and firm performance. The findings indicate that fringe benefits can play an important role in human resource management, as workers' quit behaviour is very sensitive to their existence. Establishments also achieve higher productivity by offering more fringe benefits, although it is not clear whether this is due to workers making greater efforts, or to lower recruitment costs. Finally, firms with more generous benefits have higher survival rates than other establishments.
Economy summary
A1.25 Demonstrating progress against the 'economic' outcomes requires large amounts of data and complex, multi-level analytical techniques. This is because of the multitude of factors which impact on the success or otherwise of the economic process. Thus to model effectively the processes leading to outcomes in this domain requires not only data on the business environment and the businesses within it, but also the people in that environment and the wider social infrastructure that supports it. Assimilating this information does not make for an easy task but it is important that these multiple levels of data can be linked.
A1.26 The value in, and necessity of, in particular, linking employer and employee data is clear and much work is already underway in this area. Indeed, there is a considerable amount of data generally available on business, the economy, and economic activity in Scotland to permit longitudinal analysis across different levels. The IDBR is a powerful source of business data, the Labour Force Survey and the WPLS are equally robust for examining individual-level factors - all are capable of supporting in-depth Scottish analysis. In addition, the cohort studies present a unique opportunity to study patterns of long-term economic activity and the BHPS shorter term activity. A planned resource comprising individual data on transition from school to the labour market, based on careers guidance data will allow exploration of the special features of the Scottish post-16 education system. In summary, longitudinal data is useful for the evaluation of economic outcomes in a number of respects, particularly individual data that can be used to investigate the influences on patterns of economic activity. However, individual data offer only one part of the explanation and must be linked to, and be analysed with, business-level data to gain full understanding of the processes that contribute to achievement of this outcome. While it is can be challenging to work above the individual level, requiring the utilisation of large and complex datasets and multi-level analytical techniques, the focus of these outcomes necessitates it.
B EDUCATION
Outcome 3: We are better educated, more skilled and more successful, renowned for our research and innovation
Definition of key concepts
B1.1 Two objectives are straddled by this outcome; it is linked to both being 'smarter' and 'wealthier and fairer'. This, therefore, is a particularly broad ranging outcome encompassing education, lifelong learning, skills acquisition, employment, business and sustainable economic growth.
B1.2 Education levels, understandably, are almost exclusively measured using attainment data and there is a vast array of data sources which provide information on the attainment levels of the general population and specific sub-groups. Being 'better educated' would suggest returning, on average, higher attainment levels amongst the population generally. This would mean, overall, fewer people with no qualifications and more people with degree-level qualifications. The trend is already tracked and reported using repeat cross-sectional data. Better educated however, could also be related to the supply of education and resources available. This refers to education which is provided in better equipped schools, colleges and universities. It could further be interpreted as being more appropriately educated, that is being given the education necessary to succeed in the future with the right subjects and courses available and followed.
B1.3 Being skilled has a different meaning to being educated. Skills for Scotland10, the Scottish Government's lifelong learning strategy, defines skills broadly across a number of domains:
- personal and learning skills that enable individuals to become effective lifelong learners
- literacy and numeracy
- the five core skills of communication, numeracy, problem solving, information technology and working with others
- employability skills that prepare individuals for employment rather than for a specific occupation
- essential skills that include all of those above; and
- vocational skills that are specific to a particular occupation or sector
B1.4 Qualification levels, whilst not equated fully with skills, are considered one of the best proxies available, and so in some ways measuring a population that is 'more skilled' is similar, and will draw on many of the same sources and processes, as identifying a population which is 'better educated'. This causes obvious complications for the accurate evaluation of progress against this outcome. A further issue is then whether the confusion here between 'education' and 'skills' might in fact reflect the impossibility of drawing such a sharp distinction at all. In particular, there is the question of whether employers seek recruits who are well-educated rather than specifically skilled, preferring to impart, at least for young recruits, the work related skills themselves Qualifications are only one measure of skills; core skills including literacy and numeracy, and increasingly ICT competence, among the general population are also important as it is these skills which facilitate the subsequent achievement of qualifications.
Research exemplar
Bynner, J. (1997) 'Basic skills in adolescents' occupational preparation', Career Development Quarterly, 45: 305-321. Bynner, J., Mcintosh, S., Vignoles, A., Dearden, L., Reed, H. and Van Reenen, J. (2001) Improving adult basic skills: benefits to the individual and to society, DfEE Research Report RR251, London: HMSO.
Analysis of basic skills data collected at age 21 in BCS70 and at age 37 in NCDS was directed at separating out the effects of poor literacy and poor numeracy over and above qualification level achieved on the amount of unemployment experienced since age 16. It was found that in NCDS an independent effect for numeracy could be established and in BCS70 for both numeracy and literacy with stronger relationships in the latter cohort study. This kind of evidence was used by the Moser committee in England to make the case for raising literacy and numeracy levels. The target set of 10% improvement was subsequently translated through further analysis into benefits to the taxpayer from achieving the target by 2012 of £2.54 billion for numeracy and £.44 billion for literacy. More recent BCS70 basics skills data collected in 2004 has recently been used in a special analysis for the Scottish Government published in 2008, New light on Adult Literacy and Numeracy in Scotland.
B1.5 'Success' is a less well defined term and could be understood in a number of ways. In this context however, it is predominantly concerned with success in education, training and the labour market. In these terms, 'more successful' would be associated with higher qualifications, more skills and stable, suitable employment. This may be measured, for example, through a reduction in the 'More Choices, More Chances' (formerly NEET) group. Success is also reflected in the greater proportion of high-skilled positions being filled by Scottish candidates, through attracting non-Scottish candidates to fill vacancies, or offering opportunities for Scottish candidates to gain good jobs outside Scotland. Success in the labour market could also be construed as relating to individuals securing higher incomes. From an organisational or business level (rather than individual/employee level), success is related to a thriving business and a vibrant economy, a theme closely linked to the concept of Scotland as a 'better place to do business' discussed earlier. Attracting more investment in Scotland would be a good sign of success, as would a higher, and more valuable, level of domestic product, a higher business start-up rate, and a high new business survival rate. A stronger demand by employers for skills, and a better use of skills in the production process, as highlighted in relation to the previous outcome, would also be a sign of 'success'.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
B1.6 Determining properly progress against this outcome requires analysis of longitudinal data. Ultimately, the outcome variable suggested is that of being 'more successful'; the explanatory variables are 'better educated' and 'more skilled'. However, these latter concepts can also be considered as outcomes. Thus to achieve the status of 'better educated' or 'more skilled' requires an understanding of the processes and mechanisms which support individuals to achieve these outcomes. It also requires understanding of the demand for skills by employers, promoting which is at the heart of the new Scottish skills strategy. 11 Longitudinal research which can model the effects of individual inputs - via curriculum changes, quality of schools, classroom sizes, employment training opportunities or other elements - on achieving better educated individuals is thus necessary.
B1.7 Longitudinal data can attempt to explain why individuals within key sub-groups who consistently report lower qualifications, lower skills, more restricted access to further and higher education and less success in the labour market, achieve less and continue to do so as they move from childhood into adolescence and then into adulthood. Further, the data allows an understanding of the mechanisms that support individual improvement in this area, or the barriers that prevent improvement. Thus, it is clear that longitudinal data has a great deal to offer in terms of the evaluation of schemes such as the 'Curriculum for Excellence' and the 'Skills for Scotland' strategy. Longitudinal data is necessary to assess the impact of such schemes on the individuals whom they seek to benefit.
B1.8 For example, a well-designed longitudinal study which tracks the education and employment trajectories of multiple cohorts begun at different time points, can potentially be used to assess the relative impact of changes to careers guidance programmes for specific sub-groups. Comparison groups in different cohorts initiated before and after the introduction of the policies can be identified. If information representing the new policy is collected ( e.g. data on number of careers interviews, or the availability or appraisal of careers literature) and comparable outcome data is available for both cohorts ( e.g. securing full-time employment by a particular time point) the individual effect of the policy changes on achieving the outcome can be assessed. Results can then be compared with earlier cohorts who were not subject to the changes. However, it has to be recognised that it can be difficult to achieve successful, non-biased samples of groups that are characterised by low attainment, truancy and other risk factors.
Contribution of existing data
B1.9 Data from child cognitive assessments undertaken with very young children could be construed as relating to early measures of educational achievement or skills. Such data is available in the current cohort studies, including Growing Up in Scotland ( GUS), and the Millennium Cohort Study ( MCS). Data from each of these studies can provide an insight already into which children are best prepared, in terms of their cognitive ability, for success at pre-school and primary school at the point of entry. Longitudinal analysis can identify the independent effect of social or familial factors, or service use patterns collected earlier in the child's life (at 9-10 months for both studies, and 22 months for GUS) with later information (at age 3, 5 or 7 for example) on cognitive ability. Indeed, such analysis of Millennium Cohort data has already been undertaken 12. This analysis has explored the relative impact of different types of childcare at age 9 months on cognitive ability at age 3. Similar approaches are being applied in the evaluation of the introduction of pre-school provision for two-year olds in England and Wales with comparisons in development being made between those attending pre-school from age 2, and those not.
B1.10 The Scottish Survey of Achievement ( SSA, formerly the Assessment of Achievement Programme) is the only national source of attainment information for Scottish children between the ages of 5-14. Although essentially a repeat cross-sectional study, the SSA is longitudinal at the level of school year group - e.g. the P3 year group sampled in 2005 will become the P5 year group sampled in 2007, the P7 year group in 2009 and the S2 year group in 2011. Whilst progress of individual children cannot be tracked, the progress of the year group overall is feasible. However, as noted earlier in the report, the SSA is currently under revision in order to reflect the Curriculum for Excellence and by 2010 the SSA will have been re-designed accordingly. Any opportunities for future longitudinal analysis would depend on the shape of the re-designed survey. Another approach, which we return to later, is to establish an Individual Pupil Record system on English lines. However, one important feature of the SSA, unlike the English system, is that it covers independent as well as public-sector schools.
B1.11 A number of other useful resources exist that focus on skills and education and their outcomes at older ages. Studies such as BHPS, NCDS, BCS70, and (potentially) UKHLS, by regularly updating information on educational qualifications, training and employment, provide useful resources for examining post-16 adult learning particularly to study the trajectories and outcomes of those groups who return to education at a later stage. The extensive additional contextual data available from such studies is particularly useful for modelling the wider benefits of learning in relation to health, economic and other outcomes. Also, time-series analysis of data from different cohorts permits a mapping of changes in the population and the processes they are undergoing The only problem in relation to some of these studies is the small sample sizes within key sub-groups relevant for these types of analysis. The WPLS provides an extremely detailed resource for examining skills trajectories in particular of people undertaking government training schemes, whether they remain in those schemes and their success or otherwise in terms of securing employment at the end of the scheme. The LFS and the WERS provide some information on the demand for skills by employers.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
B1.12 Longitudinal data able to support the exploration of this outcome is already widely available, and, as the exemplar demonstrates, relevant analysis has already been conducted on this data which demonstrates its usefulness. However, there is a key gap in the lack of easily accessible national attainment data for children who are following the 5-14 curriculum. Having Standard Grade results, achieved at age 15 or 16, as the first available robust, national measure of educational attainment is arguably too late. The re-design of the SSA to reflect the Curriculum for Excellence, should offer further possibilities for the analysis of this outcome.
Outcome 4: Our young people are successful learners, confident individuals, effective contributors and responsible citizens
Definition of key concepts
B1.13 This outcome entrenches the objectives and values of the 'Curriculum for Excellence' firmly within the national performance framework by explicitly referencing the four capacities (confident and so on) that the Curriculum is designed to help young people achieve. The Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) applies to all children and young people from their earliest contact with the education system through to the time they leave school as young adults. However, the CfE also recognises the importance of experiences beyond the formal educational environment including the family and community. Also, being a 'devolved initiative' it allows teachers and others involved in the process greater flexibility in deciding how it is delivered (and achieved).
B1.14 The CfE documentation defines specific attributes of each capacity in more detail. Successful learners' for example have "enthusiasm and motivation for learning; determination to reach high standards of achievement; and openness to new thinking and ideas" 13. The statement continues by specifying key abilities of successful learners including literacy and numeracy skills, creative thinking, reasoned evaluation, and independent and group learning. Successful learning can be assessed at various ages and whilst the CfE is restricted to the experiences of children and young people aged 3-18 years, this is not necessarily the case for this outcome. Thus, evaluating 'learning' extends from assessments of cognitive ability in pre-school children to educational qualifications obtained at school, college or university. Indeed, going on to higher or further education after secondary school could be construed as a measure of successful learning.
B1.15 'Confident individuals' have "self respect, a sense of physical, mental and emotional well-being, secure values and beliefs, and ambition" 14. In research terms, these abilities or feelings may be measured by asking young people about their perceived ability and belief in themselves, whether they feel in control of their lives, whether they have positive expectations and aspirations for the future, whether they participate in organised clubs or activities, how they feel about school, and their relationships with others (family, friends).
B1.16 'Effective contributors' are, amongst other things, able to "communicate in different ways and in different settings; work in partnership or in teams; take the initiative and lead." 15 In practical terms, these attributes may be measured by involvement in team sports, organised clubs, or volunteering. On a wider scale, it could mean being in full-time education, training or employment after leaving school.
B1.17 'Responsible citizens' have "respect for others" and a "commitment to participate responsibly in political, economic, social and cultural life" 16 This may be measured through law-abiding behaviour, respect for others, good attendance at school, concern for the community or environment. It would also include measures of volunteering and voting behaviour, or attitudes and apathy towards voting.
B1.18 Evaluating progress on this outcome thus requires information measuring the extent to which young people in Scotland are 'successful learners' or 'confident individuals' with analysis, which permits understanding of the diversity of educational inputs or social processes that lead them to reach that status. What elements of a young person's life most effectively contribute to him or her becoming a 'responsible citizen'? Or what barriers prevent young people from becoming 'successful learners'? The answers to these questions will provide the necessary evidence to support policies which are designed to achieve this outcome.
B1.19 Analysis for this outcome requires data sources which provide information allowing the evaluation of progress against one or more of the defined capacities. This information may thus be educational qualifications, individual self-esteem, or involvement in criminal behaviour for example. In addition, the data sources must also contain a range of explanatory variables such as those relating to home and family life or experiences at school which can be used to isolate the factors most effective in helping young people to achieve the capacities. Longitudinal data is especially important to the achievement of this outcome. This is because as policy increasingly moves away from traditional educational goals it becomes harder to identify useful interventions. Longitudinal research thus becomes very informative in discovering how these outcomes are ultimately achieved and in identifying the interventions which helped their achievement
Contribution of existing data
B1.20 The evaluation of this outcome in relation to younger children can be achieved through use of the birth cohorts. Both Growing Up in Scotland and the Millennium Cohort Study provide recent data on early child development, behaviour and cognitive ability, as well as a wide range of socio-economic contextual information. As prospective studies, they present important resources for tracking the status of individuals on potentially all four of the capacities, as they get older. However, the longer-running British cohort studies already contain data which is capable of examining these issues throughout the life-course and, crucially, include measures of 'success' and 'confidence' in adulthood (and other life stages) as well as a wide range of detailed contextual and outcome data.
B1.21 Data from the Scottish School Leavers Study ( SSLS) permits analysis of young people reaching the end of their school careers and moving into employment or further education. However, as noted within the Economy section, there are significant limitations to the SSLS data, including the high levels of attrition among hard to reach groups. This restricts its use for investigating such target groups as the More Choices More Chances group 17. Areas of potential for longitudinal analysis may involve relating the individual's experience during the school 4 th year - measured via qualifications already obtained, attitudes to school, level of parental support, and home and family situation - to their achievement of becoming a 'successful learner' defined through data on qualifications obtained at later school years or whether they are going on to higher education. Factors related to having high or low aspirations and high or low levels of control and what affects change in these over time could also be investigated.
B1.22 The Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime ( ESYTC) also collect educational information related to attainment, attendance at school and attitudes towards school. However, with measures of self-esteem, impulsivity, alienation, alongside data on aspirations, friendships, relationship with parents it is particularly well-placed to investigate issues related to confidence. Repeat measures of these aspects at different time-points allow the identification of individuals whose status has changed overtime - either positively or negatively - and analysis of the drivers of that change. In addition, with data on school attendance, youth offending and interactions with the criminal justice system the study could also be useful in modelling the 'responsible citizens' aspect of the outcome.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
B1.23 Due to the current status of the SSLS and ESYTC , which are currently 'inactive' with no guaranteed plans for future data collection, there are no opportunities for prospective analysis. 18 For example, without a further round of data collection on the Edinburgh Study the examination of the impact of the various, and detailed, measures of adolescent life on outcomes in early adulthood is impossible. It is notable that there is no current prospective longitudinal youth cohort study currently being undertaken in Scotland. The proposed alternative to the SSLS is to provide linkage to Careers administrative data, in order to allow the destination of school leavers to be tracked. This offers the possibility of linking to other sources including longitudinal surveys. Also important is contextual data on the social lives of young people in order to explore the impact of experiences beyond the formal educational environment, which are central to the Curriculum for Excellence. Furthermore, research data would also seem necessary to explore proper the conditions encompassed by confident individuals, effective contributors and responsible citizens.
Outcome 5: Our children have the best start in life and are ready to succeed
Definition of key concepts
B1.24 Best start in life involves both a clarification of what is meant by 'best start' and the identification of outcomes later in life as operationalised by salient indicators that can be used to validate the hypothesis implicit in it.
B1.25 Within the Spending Review, this outcome is linked only explicitly to the 'smarter' objective. However, it would seem relevant also to consider it in relation to the 'healthier' objective particularly, as the resource review illustrates, a large portion of the information available on very young children in Scotland is health-related, and many of the existing British birth cohort studies were established specifically to examine 'perinatal' issues related to maternal or early child health.
B1.26 Although most obviously the 'start' referred to would be the child's birth, to assess fully this outcome requires data spanning the early periods of children's lives from their conception to their initial years at primary school. Within this period, a number of significant starts, in addition to the birth, are evident - starting pre-school or primary school for example. Thus, to be of use to this outcome, the longitudinal resource must provide some information on one or more of these periods - pregnancy, birth and very early childhood, pre-school, early primary school - for any individual subject. In many cases, such as in the birth cohort studies, this data is collected concurrently - whilst the mother is pregnant and/or when the child is very young - but information about the ante-natal period, the time of birth, and early childhood can also include historical data recalled by the respondent and/or administrative data from health records.
B1.27 Much of the administrative information already collected on children and their parents from the child's birth, and indeed during the pregnancy, has a specific health focus and is often reported in relation to implications for the future health of the child. During pregnancy this may include maternal smoking, drinking or drug use; at birth, birth weight and feeding choices; and in the early weeks information covering the child's physical and cognitive development, and maternal physical and mental health. Through the early years, in relation to a 'healthy' start, this may expand to include measures of the child's contraction of acute and long-standing illness, their height and weight, physical activity, diet, cognitive development, behaviour and exposure to chemicals in the home (cigarette smoke would be the most obvious example). However, having the best start is not restricted to health-related indicators, and is in fact unavoidably linked to indicators measuring the social and familial context into which the child is born. These may include family and household composition, household income, housing tenure and state of accommodation, neighbourhood deprivation and resources in the community, access to services and sources of support, and a myriad of other factors which contribute to a positive child-rearing environment.
B1.28 Success, in relation to this outcome, can be understood most easily in relation to education and learning. Detail in the previous outcome illustrated the meaning of 'successful learners' in relation to the Curriculum for Excellence. It follows from this that being 'ready to succeed' requires having been exposed to the experiences and environments necessary to facilitate the development of the enthusiasm, motivation, determination, openness and abilities necessary to succeed in learning. These may include many of the home, family and social factors which have been described already in relation to the 'best start in life' but will also extend, in particular, to include the child's experience of pre-school education.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
B1.29 The theme of 'early intervention' is central to this outcome. Given that the entire principle of early intervention is based on a longitudinal approach - altering situations at an early stage to impact on later outcomes - access to longitudinal data is essential to assess properly progress against it. The existing knowledge of the benefits of early intervention, and specification of early interventions, has been made possible through analysis of existing longitudinal data. It is only through analysis of the early circumstances and characteristics of children alongside their later positive outcomes that the precise health, social, familial, and community factors that create the 'best start in life' and children who are 'ready to succeed' can be determined. Furthermore, only longitudinal data will allow any appraisal of the success, or otherwise, of any early intervention which aims to contribute to a larger number of children experiencing the 'best start in life', by following those children and collecting information about their outcomes in later life.
Contribution of existing data
B1.30 Growing Up in Scotland, with its unique Scottish focus and intensive collection of data on the early years' period, is very well placed as a resource with which to assess progress against this outcome. Already, the study has three years worth of longitudinal data across two cohorts covering transitions from age 10 months to 34 (just under 3 years) months, and 34 months to 58 months (just under 5 years). With information available about the child's birth and the period immediately after birth, along with data from cognitive assessments at age 3, it can support analysis of the effects of the very early circumstances and experience on children's readiness to succeed.
B1.31 A considerable amount of historical data, covering a range of child cohorts and including children living in Scotland, is already available which could be analysed to formulate a picture of what particular circumstances offer children the 'best start in life'. Most notable amongst these are the British birth cohort studies of 1958 and 1970, but the Aberdeen cohort study and the National Study of Health and Growth are also relevant. Although based around a one-off cross-sectional survey of almost 15,000 primary school pupils in 1960-62, the Aberdeen study represents a good example of how linkage to information held on administrative records can be used efficiently to generate a 'longitudinal' dataset.
B1.32 The study combines information from the original survey with administrative data about the pregnancy and birth - from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neo-natal Databank - the child's height and weight at primary school entry - from school medical records - and cognitive ability at ages 7, 9, 11 - also from school records. More recently, this early data has been supplemented with data from a postal survey of surviving and traceable respondents, and various health and socio-economic data on cohort members available from centralised National Health Service databases. Thus, despite having collected data from cohort members themselves only twice, through data-linkage the Aberdeen study has constructed a detailed life-course dataset. With information about the pregnancy, birth, and the socio-economic characteristics into which the child was born, the data can be used to examine, historically, the impact of these very early factors on later success defined by results in the cognitive tests at ages 7, 9 and 11. Almost all of the other cohort studies undertaken have collected similar types of data (for example, GUS, MCS, NCDS, and BCS70 all draw on data about the birth taken from health records) allowing a powerful analysis of which factors have endured overtime as affecting a child's readiness to succeed. This comparative option would also permit an understanding of the generalisability of the Aberdeen data, being based on children from a specific locality, to children in Scotland as a whole and possibly beyond.
Research Exemplar
Feinstein, L. (2003), "Inequality in the Early Cognitive Development of British Children in the 1970 Cohort", Economica, 70: 73-97.
This research developed an index of development for British children in the 1970 cohort, assessed at 22 months, 42 months, 5 years and 10 years. The score at 22 months predicts educational qualifications at age 26 and is related to family background. The children of educated or wealthy parents who scored poorly in the early tests had a tendency to catch up, whereas children of worse-off parents who scored poorly were extremely unlikely to catch up and are shown to be an at-risk group. There is no evidence that entry into schooling reverses this pattern.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
B1.33 A host of robust and relevant longitudinal data is readily available for use to address the issues at the heart of this outcome, particularly through the various birth cohort studies. As these studies continue, so does the value and potential contribution of their data. It is important therefore, to ensure that support for these studies is continued, and that the opportunities presented by the available data are exploited through secondary analysis.
Education summary
B1.34 The previous analysis has demonstrated the enormous contribution that longitudinal data and analysis can make to evaluation in this policy area. Each of these outcomes are primed for testing using individual-level, longitudinal, life course data, and there is a wealth of resources available which permit this. Britain has an unrivalled history in the establishment of national birth cohort studies for scientific investigations of developmental processes and their outcomes throughout life in social, educational, economic, psychological and health domains. Indeed, there is little room for expansion as there exist already multiple, high quality, longitudinal resources appropriate to the task. There are numerous opportunities for single cohort or multi-cohort analysis using historical data, via the longer established cohort studies, or the more recent information available via the Millennium Cohort Study or Growing Up in Scotland.
B1.35 Rather than investment in new studies, longitudinal evaluation of the outcomes in this domain requires continued, and increased, investment in existing resources which will see them reach their full potential and allow, through secondary analysis, the data available to be fully exploited. There is some evidence that existing studies could be easily be enhanced through linkage to administrative datasets or other survey data.
C HEALTH
Outcome 6: We live longer, healthier lives
Definition of key concepts
C1.1 This outcome is quite obviously related to the 'healthier' objective. Achieving progress against this outcome in Scotland is very much associated with success in bringing about significant change in the habits and lifestyles of the Scottish population. Scotland has a reputation internationally for poor health, particularly in relation to health-related lifestyle choices such as diet, smoking, and alcohol consumption and the subsequent impacts these have on incidence of disease and illness. Without longitudinal data, the extent to which any change has been realised at an individual level cannot be properly appreciated or assessed.
C1.2 Whilst there is little to debate on the measurement of 'longer' lives, measuring 'healthier' lives does require some unpacking of the term. Health is a broad concept encompassing a wide range of fields - medicine, public health, physical health, mental health, general health, illness, disease, disability, and health-related behaviours or lifestyle choices are some examples. Within most of these fields, whilst information on the general population is important, separate study of discrete sub-groups is also warranted - children, adolescents, mothers, the elderly, the disadvantaged, men, women, smokers or drinkers for example. Thus, to contribute to the evaluation of this outcome, a suitable resource must collect health-related information from one or more of these domains on the general population at large or a sub-group of key interest. Note that it is unlikely any single resource could encompass all of these features.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
C1.3 A vast amount of research and administrative health-related data is collected, analysed and published in Scotland, on the Scottish population, on a regular basis. This data is largely cross-sectional, or at least it is analysed and reported in a cross-sectional manner, to provide 'monitoring' and trend information and useful comparisons to other UK and international administrations. This data allows broad analysis of changes in health-related characteristics over time which is useful but also limited in that it only allows change to be measured at a population or sub-population level. There is no indication of the extent of individual change. For example, Scottish Health survey data indicates that the prevalence of smoking in adults aged 16-64 decreased from 35% in 1998 to 31% in 2003. However, without individual level information it is impossible to deduce where, or why, this reduction has occurred - is it because fewer people are taking up smoking? Or have people who smoked in 1998 stopped smoking by 2003? If the latter is true, what are the characteristics of those who have stopped and why have they stopped? Similarly, what are the characteristics of those who continue to smoke, what are the barriers to quitting and what are the implications of their continuing habit? This is the additional and invaluable data which is the added benefit of longitudinal information - it permits a more thorough understanding of the complex reasons of why things happen which leads to a more informed policy development and evaluation process.
C1.4 As well as allowing a more detailed understanding of individual health careers, longitudinal data also permits study of the impact of socio-economic, demographic, health and countless other factors on later health and other outcomes. Current policy programmes to promote intensively breastfeeding, for example, are built on longitudinal data that has demonstrated the long-term benefits of this practice on reducing the risk, amongst babies, of a range of illnesses. These include gastro-intestinal infection and respiratory infection, and amongst mothers of breast and ovarian cancer.
Contribution of existing data
C1.5 Almost all of the longitudinal resources considered in the context of this review include some measures of health. Many of the resources offer data on specific health concerns, or on the health of a particular sub-group such as children or young people.
C1.6 Of these numerous sources the Scottish Longitudinal Study ( SLS) is particularly suited to a range of analysis which tracks differences both in how long people live, and in their health-status. SLS is a large-scale census-based study created by linking census data to data available from current Scottish administrative and statistical sources. With a 5% representative sample of the population, equating to data on around 274,000 people living in Scotland, this dataset represents a powerful resource capable of modelling health variations and inequalities amongst or across key sub-groups on the basis of age, gender, area or other socio-demographic, geographic, or health-related characteristics over time. Indeed, the study is already used widely for this purpose. Current health-focussed projects using SLS data include an exploration of individuals who return to work after being off long-term sick and the impact of returning to work on their health. Other examples in include examination of the relationship between health and housing, social mobility, and the effect of exposure to air pollution on likelihood of death, hospitalisation, cancer registration and negative birth outcomes. Of course there are many other opportunities presented by this dataset for policy-related longitudinal health research that have yet to be exploited. The continued expansion of this study through the linkage to historical data or additional contemporary datasets, covering additional health information or extra socio-economic contextual details, mean that its potential continues to grow.
C1.7 Having been established specifically to investigate factors related to maternal and early child health, and through continuing to collect data on illness, physical condition and health-related behaviour, the British birth cohort studies are particularly well-placed for exploration of health issues throughout the life-course. NCDS (the 1958 cohort) for example, was originally designed to examine obstetric factors associated with stillbirth and death in early infancy. As such it collected detailed information about the pregnancy and birth, including lifestyle data such as whether the mother smoked during pregnancy. At subsequent follow-ups, data on the child's health and medical history, including incidence of specific illnesses, was collected. In adulthood, the study has continued the collection of data about illness, accidents medicines taken and hospital visits alongside information on drinking, smoking, diet, drug use, depression and fertility. The study has also included a biomedical component, undertaken in 2002, where blood samples and a range of biometric data were collected from cohort members. This survey aimed to obtain objective measures of ill-health and biomedical risk factors. BCS (the 1970 cohort) contains similarly detailed data.
C1.8 Considerable use has already been made of health data from the older cohort studies to explore, for example, the effect of smoking during pregnancy on child health and health inequalities by socio-economic classification. More recently, data from the Millennium Cohort Study has looked in detail at issues surrounding breast-feeding initiation and duration.
C1.9 Perhaps the most comprehensive longitudinal dataset for the study of health-related outcomes in Scotland is that of the West of Scotland Twenty-07 study. Starting in 1987 and covering three age cohorts (aged 15, 35, and 55 at that time) of residents in the West of Scotland, this study has collected detailed health information covering 20 years of the lives of its sample members. As well as self-reported measures of health, physiological data, such as height and weight and health-related lifestyle information, the study has collected biological samples to allow more specific analysis of particular medical disorders. With 1000 people in each cohort, and with the same information on each, the relative importance of key influences on health outcomes at different stages of life can be assessed. For example, does diet impact more acutely on the health of the middle-aged than on those in early adulthood? The ability to examine how health patterns and the impact of lifestyle and socio-economic characteristics differ by age, and how they change for people of different ages as they get older, is a key strength of this study. A further key strength is the focus on the effects of neighbourhood on health. "Go Well Glasgow" is also valuable in focusing on the relationship between housing and health.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
C1.10 Whilst fairly comprehensive, there are some limitations presented by the available data. The main limitation of SLS, as a resource for studying health, is particularly in relation to socio-economic characteristics. Census data is collected only every 10 years, which means socio-economic changes in the short term (shorter periods of economic inactivity for example) are not detected and cannot be examined in relation to health outcomes. Furthermore, by not collecting primary data directly from the subjects themselves, limited information is available on healthy lifestyles - drinking, smoking and diet - which are key policy priorities in this area. This is a case where linked administrative data could not only help bridge the gap but hugely enhance the research potential of the study. Plans are already in place to link educational attainment information from the SQA into the SLS dataset and there is a strong case for also incorporating local authority care data.
C1.11 The only significant limitation of the Twenty-07 study is that, by definition, it is area-based - only covering the population of the West of Scotland, and, for the locality study, specific neighbourhoods of Glasgow. As a result, care must be taken in generalising findings from Twenty-07 data to the Scottish population as a whole.
Research Exemplar
Ebrahimi-Mameghani, M., Scott, J.A., Der, G., Lean, M.E.J., and Burns, C.M. (2007) "Changes in weight and waist circumference over 9 years in a Scottish population"
European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, advance online publication 11 July 2007
The number of people who are obese and overweight in Scotland has increased significantly over the last two decades increasing the risk of associated conditions such as diabetes, heart disease, cancers and stroke. Developing effective strategies to prevent weight gain and promote weight maintenance is therefore a major public health priority.
This study aimed to monitor patterns of measured weight, changes in waistlines and the increase in overweight and obesity over a 9-year period. It was focussed on the two older age cohorts from the Twenty-07 Study (aged either 39 or 59 in 1991) and measured their height, waist circumference and weight at three separate intervals 1991, 1995 and 2000. We also looked at changes in body mass index ( BMI), over time.
Only one in five (20%) people maintained a stable weight over 9 years. However, more than 42% of study participants put on 10kg, and 17% gained 5kg. We found that people in early middle age seem to put on more weight, more quickly than older people. But the waistlines of the older group seem to be bigger than those in early middle age.
Health summary
C1.12 Health is another area where longitudinal data and analysis is tremendously useful. The importance of establishing 'cause' and 'effect' is perhaps most obvious here particularly when the effect is a positive health outcome related for example, to lower incidence of illness or disease. Also, like education, health is a policy area where a significant amount of useful longitudinal data is already available. Resources of particular salience include the British birth cohort studies, each of which were originally established around the investigation of health-related topics, the Scottish Longitudinal Study, which offers a powerful resource for Scottish analysis, and the West of Scotland Twenty-07 study, which with three adult cohorts of different ages and a wealth of health-related data, along with considerable amounts of social contextual information on respondents, is a rich data source and Go Well Glasgow is also a valuable addition.
C1.13 Survey content is particularly important for investigations in this area. Scotland's health suffers particularly as a result of risky lifestyle behaviours - poor diet, excess alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking and lack of physical activity. The most useful longitudinal datasets therefore, are those which contain information on patterns of these behaviours amongst the Scottish population, as well as data on health complaints, illness and disease. There are also huge advantages to be gained in this domain, by linking survey datasets to routinely collected, administrative health data. Linking vast amounts of health information is not a new concept in Scotland. Since the late 1980s, the Information Services Division of NHS Scotland has been pioneering systems to achieve this using routine hospital admission data and hold two main linked datasets centrally, routinely updated with new and high quality information. The value of such data for research purposes is demonstrated clearly by the Scottish Longitudinal Study, and by the Aberdeen Study. The concerns arising over the ageing of the Scottish population, and the implications for policy directed at the elderly, are not currently capable of longitudinal investigation in Scotland as there is no longitudinal study of ageing. A key focus of ELSA, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, is health and while much can be learned from that data, there is a strong argument for establishing a comparable Scottish study.
D PROTECTION
Outcome 8: We have improved the life chances for children, young people and families at risk
Definition of key concepts
D1.1 A significant amount of research has been dedicated to the study of children, young people and families at risk. This research has demonstrated that these groups experience a disproportionate level of challenges in many areas of daily life making it harder for them to succeed. This outcome recognises the necessity for interventions focussed at improving the prospects of the children, young people and families within this group.
D1.2 The extent to which the 'life chances' of an individual or family has improved can be modelled through a range of indicators. These may include reduced exposure to disadvantage through better employment and greater wealth, securing good housing, and living in safe and secure neighbourhoods with access to good quality services and support. The strategy extends to education with better and more stable educational experiences, raising expectations and aspirations, and achievement of good and suitable educational qualifications. In the realm of the family this outcome supports a stable and successful family life with good familial relationships and strong social networks. Health is also relevant and improving life chances would mean lowering the risk of illness and disease, and exposure to unhealthy lifestyles to ensure healthier, longer lives.
D1.3 Families at risk can be identified according to different definitions referring to broad disadvantage and the risk it presents or the dangers represented by exposure to specific circumstances or lifestyles. Families at risk may include lone parents, younger parents, those living in deprived areas, families with unemployed parents, or parents with minimal education. Children and young people at risk could involve those neglected or abused, or those in contact with formal agencies such as the police, social work department or the Children's Reporter. There are risks defined by health status including risk of illness or disease, obesity or death (lower than average life expectancy), obesity. Some risks may be defined in relation to school or education and involve truancy, exclusion or poor school performance. Existing research has shown that usually more than one of these risk factors is present. For example, children in disadvantaged families may be at higher risk of school truancy, poorer educational attainment, poorer diet and health, coming into contact with formal agencies, involvement in delinquent acts, and having a less-stable family life.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
D1.4 To assess the success of interventions designed to benefit families thus defined, and, indeed, to understand what form such interventions should take to be most effective, requires the application of prospective longitudinal research and analysis of historical longitudinal data. Measuring the relative 'improvement' of life chances for individuals or families, and the impact of interventions designed to produce those improvements, can be properly achieved only via prospective longitudinal research. The analysis of historical data can be used to identify 'risk factors' which lead to negative outcomes, or limited life chances, according to a range of definitions. Historical data can also be used, however, to identify factors associated with resilience amongst families at risk. Such evidence is important for the delivery of appropriate interventions.
D1.5 To measure progress towards this outcome, the data must offer variables which allow the identification of children, young people and families at risk, through one or more of the definitions, but also some measure of whether the 'life chances' of those children, young people or families have improved (outcome variable). Furthermore, there must also be some coverage, within the data, of explanatory factors which may have contributed to any observed change (or lack of change) in those life chances.
Contribution of existing data
D1.6 A number of longitudinal resources exist for the study young children and families 'at risk' including Growing Up in Scotland ( GUS) and the Millennium Cohort Study. Both studies can facilitate an understanding of the impact on a child's life of being born into families at risk, whilst GUS can also provide particular detail on the circumstances and experiences in the 'early years' (0-5 years) period, and how these early years experience impact on later outcomes. The comprehensive and detailed datasets in each of these studies allow identification of risk on a number of levels, household, individual (both parent and child), and area - and through a range of risk definitions:
- low income
- lack of employment
- family composition (lone parent, number of children)
- parental age (younger mothers)
- housing and accommodation (social housing, low person-to-room ratio)
- child health and well-being (birth weight, long-standing illness and disabilities overweight and obesity)
- parental health and well-being (general health, limiting illness, smoking, depression, mental well-being)
- parental alcohol and drug use and area deprivation
D1.7 While it has a significantly smaller Scottish sample size, the Families and Children Study still offers a functional resource to study 'at risk' families with children of a broader age range (at least 0-16 years, up to 18 years if child is in full-time education). The inclusion of older children facilitates examination of a broader range of risk elements - in relation to primary and secondary schooling for example. Sampling procedures introduced from wave 9 (2007) mean that families within certain at risk groups are given priority in the subsequent follow-up, boosting their numbers and making study of these families easier. The UK-wide coverage of the sample offers also useful comparative opportunities.
D1.8 Two Scottish area-based studies of adolescents, the West of Scotland 11-16 Study and the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime ( ESYTC), provide further opportunities to identify young people at risk and track their progress through the teenage years, and beyond. The Edinburgh Study, through its linked Social Work, Children Hearing's and Police data, in particular, allows identification of young people known to formal agencies i.e. those who are often most vulnerable. The study's focus on delinquent behaviour makes it a rich source for the study of persistent young offenders. The large sample size for the study, high response rates, and linked data from official records in the Edinburgh Study allow it to be used for a significant range of analysis in relation to young people at risk. Historic data from administrative records, in particular, means that the trajectories of the young people identified as 'at risk' in early childhood can be tracked into adolescence. Furthermore, the most recent collection of administrative data from the Scottish Criminal Records Office, has allowed the mapping of trajectories, for a limited section of the cohort, to be continued into early adulthood. The focus of the West of Scotland study is more on health-related risk including chronic illness, height and weight, and substance use. This detailed health information, which extended to include data on self-esteem, self-image, health behaviours, school and family life, was collected from cohort members at ages 11, 13 and 15. Subsequent follow-ups were then made at age 18-20 and age 22. Data from this study is therefore well suited to the examination of health risk-factors during adolescence and through the transition to early adulthood.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
D1.9 With a number of suitable studies in progress providing relevant longitudinal data on children and families and permitting definition of 'at risk' in various forms, there is little need for new information to support evaluation of this outcome. However, many of the characteristics of families 'at risk' correspond with the characteristics of those who are most likely to drop-out or be lost to panel and cohort studies. A key challenge, therefore, is in retaining such families in cohort and panel studies over the long term so that their outcomes can be tracked.
D1.10 Retention of 'at risk' families needs to be set against standard procedures for boosting response and minimising attrition in longitudinal surveys. These methods are numerous and include providing good survey information to respondents, making participants feel valued, offering reassurance of confidentiality and professional conduct, minimising 'respondent burden by keeping data collection procedures as short, unintrusive and simple as possible and keeping in regular contact. Use of financial incentives to encourage participation is uncommon in UK longitudinal surveys although they are a feature of many other UK social surveys and on longitudinal projects conducted elsewhere. Furthermore, in the context of the latter a financial incentive appears to have benefits for sample retention, especially for those sub-groups most difficult to retain. For example, the Fragile Families study - a longitudinal project following a cohort of nearly 5000 children born in 20 large cities in the US and including an over-sample of non-marital births (and thus families at greater risk of parental separation and of living in poverty) - paid respondents between $20 and $50 for each interview undertaken over the five years of the project. Eighty-seven percent of mothers who were unmarried at the child's birth and who were interviewed at baseline participated in the five-year follow-up, representing an impressive response rate for a study of this kind. In a climate of falling response rates more generally, it is now becoming increasingly common for UK social surveys to give small financial incentives to respondents to encourage co-operation. This is an option which may have to be seriously considered for any longitudinal study, such as GUS, for example which hopes to retain enough of the families and children to whom this outcome relates,
Outcome 9: We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger
Definition of key concepts
D1.11 This outcome stems directly from the 'safer and stronger' objective, the only objective to which it is explicitly linked in the Spending Review. It is focussed, clearly, on preventing crime, much of which is the concern of the criminal justice system. However, crime prevention is not only about having effective justice systems which deal swiftly with offenders but is also about identification of the risk factors which lead people to commit crime and reducing that risk through policies and interventions in the realms of education, employment, welfare and health. Thus, achieving progress against other outcomes - reducing inequalities, giving children a better start in life, realising our full economic potential, improving the life chances for children, young people and families at risk - will produce, as a result, progress against this outcome. As such, the outcome is implicitly linked to a number of policy areas and across several objectives beyond 'safer and stronger'.
D1.12 Crime is defined by statute and requires little further interpretation, although some interpretation is applied in how it is recorded. Defining disorder is less straightforward as it encompasses the type of low-level, 'nuisance' behaviour that is often not explicitly criminalised in terms of the law but is now described as 'anti-social behaviour'. The inclusion of 'danger' as a concept extends the coverage of this outcome to include the risk of accidents - in the home or on the road, for example - or, perhaps, of natural disasters - floods being the most obvious, and the most recently occurring example of this in Scotland.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
D1.13 To assess performance against this outcome therefore requires information on levels of crime, disorder and danger and how these vary across individuals and communities. A large amount of data, mostly cross-sectional, is available on levels of crime and on the administration criminal justice system from a range of sources. Administrative data includes police recorded crimes, court statistics and prison statistics. Data is also collected from victims of crime and from offenders.
D1.14 A society that is safer from crime, disorder and danger is a society that experiences lower prevalence of these events. One part of reducing crime and disorder is preventing it in the first place. However, this requires detailed understanding of the factors which contribute to an individual's involvement in offending. These may be socio-economic, family, area, lifestyle, peer group, psychological or attitudinal attributes. Longitudinal studies that collect information about involvement in offending can provide data on the point at which offending starts, its patterns over time (for example whether offending behaviour increases or decreases, when, why and for whom?) changes in offences committed (in terms of seriousness or nature) and when it stops. This allows analysis of factors related to each element of offending - what contributes to onset of offending? What causes it to become more serious? And what assists with desistance from crime? Furthermore, only longitudinal research permits proper, long-term evaluation of the effectiveness of criminal justice processes and interventions designed to reduce (re-)offending. Also, by building intervention evaluation into a wider longitudinal study of offending, longitudinal research has the added benefit of allowing the monitoring of other changes in the circumstances of the respondent - circumstances which may be beyond the remit of the intervention, or which have unintentionally changed as a result of the intervention - and not just those related to involvement in criminal behaviour.
Contribution of existing data
D1.15 The Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime is currently the only comprehensive longitudinal study of offending (and victimisation) in Scotland which is capable of this type of analysis. The detailed dataset collects information about involvement in a whole spectrum of delinquent behaviour from recognised statutory offences to risky behaviours. This is combined with a wide range of information on explanatory factors covering family life, school, peers, mental health, leisure pursuits, neighbourhood and experience as a victim of crime. Having this data spanning the six-year period of adolescence makes it an extremely useful resource for examination of the factors that motivate young people to become involved in delinquent behaviour, to resist involvement, to become more heavily involved or to reduce their offending over time. Thus, in the simplest terms, offending behaviour at age 16 can be linked to individual characteristics and circumstances recorded at ages 12 to 15. Indeed, a range of analysis has already been undertaken on data from the study to do this.
D1.16 The Edinburgh Study has additional elements beyond the survey data that increase its value as a resource for this type of exploration. Through painstaking linkage to administrative datasets held by the police, social work department and the children's hearings system, the study is particularly well placed to examine the impact of contact with these agencies and, where relevant, the formal interventions which followed. As such it offers an example of the type of long-term evaluation necessary to properly assess the effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce offending. The study also incorporates a strong ecological element - an important strand of criminological theory - collecting and linking in a large amount of data on the neighbourhoods and communities in which the cohort members live. This permits examination of the effect of area-level factors such as unemployment, migration, housing conditions and community cohesion on individual offending and also how changes in the area impact on changes in behaviour.
D1.17 The only other source of Scottish longitudinal data on offending behaviour lies with the proposed UKHLS. Current documentation on the content of the questionnaire indicates that questions on involvement in illicit and risky behaviour including crime, drug use and anti-social behaviour will be included although probably only for random sub-samples of the panel. As a household survey UKLHS is unlikely to capture serious and persistent offenders in the sample (unlike the Edinburgh Study) - i.e. those who are of key concern, and who present the biggest challenge for the government in demonstrating performance against this outcome. Nevertheless, the UKHLS sample will undoubtedly include many people involved in lower-level offending and the extensive contextual data on the panel which is collected by the survey mean it will offer tremendous scope for examining factors which contribute to such offending behaviour amongst adults in the general population.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
D1.18 Whilst a comprehensive and valuable resource, there are some limitations of the Edinburgh Study. By definition it is area-based, restricted to a cohort who attended school in Edinburgh at a particular time. Despite this, it is likely that findings from the study will be nationally relevant for a long time to come. In addition, the dataset thus far only contains data on the six-year period from 12-18 yrs. There is no information on childhood circumstances, on adult offending, nor the transition between adolescence and adulthood, nor between the youth and adult justice systems; although information on the latter elements would be collected should a further sweep of data collection be undertaken. Again further administrative data linkage might help fill the gap.
D1.19 There may be some benefits in replicating the Edinburgh Study approach on a national scale similar to the LSYPE, a cohort study based in English schools that began in 2003 of 13-14 year-olds and is now in its fourth year. A broadening of its coverage from the initial educational focus to other policy domains is expected as the survey proceeds through the later teens. Although absence of Scottish data is a major restriction the clear relevance of the survey's findings in relation to delinquent behaviour, truancy and so on have prompted interest in replicating the design in Scotland when a new English version is launched in 2012.
Research Exemplar
McAra, L. and McVie, S. (2007) Criminal Justice Transitions, ESYTC Research Digest No. 14
This research explored transitions into the adult criminal justice system amongst the young people in the Edinburgh Study cohort. It provides a description of patterns of criminal convictions and disposals for young people up to age 19, an examination of the characteristics and institutional histories of cohort members with a criminal record as compared with youngsters with no such record, and an exploration of the profile of young people who make the transition from the children's hearings system to the adult criminal justice system as compared with youngsters with a hearings record but who have not made this transition by age 19.
The analysis showed that more than half of those convicted had been known to the children's hearings system at some point previously and of those previously referred to the hearings system, 45% had a criminal conviction. The most important predictors of criminal record status were school exclusion by third year of secondary education; leaving school at age 16; early history of police warning/charges (by age 12); ever having an offence referral to the Reporter; ever being placed on supervision by the hearing system; persistent serious offending; and being male.
Protection summary
D1.20 Most issues surrounding protection lend themselves well to the application of longitudinal data and analysis particularly as these outcomes involve either changing the circumstances of individuals (such as moving children and family out of risky situations) or changing their behaviour (such as reducing re-offending). To understand the processes which elicit change it is necessary to have longitudinal data. Again, this is an area where there already exists a number of relevant research resources and a wealth of longitudinal data is available - particularly on children, young people and families. The British cohort studies, by presenting life-course data from birth into middle-adulthood, already permit a range of analysis which can examine risk and resilience over time, at different periods of time, and across a range of key transitional stages. As the cohort members have aged, become parents and formed their own families, the studies have broadened their data collection to include outcomes for cohort members' own children, allowing examination of continuities and discontinuities in risk and/or resilience across the generations. However, the policy and social environments have changed since members of those cohorts were children and as such, the new cohort studies - MCS and GUS - as well as FACS, present fresh data to explore the current factors affecting the pathways of children at risk. The challenge here is retaining families in the sub-groups of interest within the samples for these studies. Experience has shown that those families 'at risk' are those families most likely to be lost to longitudinal panels, and least likely to participate in the first place. Without retaining these sub-groups the necessary data cannot be generated.
D1.21 Crime and justice present perhaps the most explicit examples of processes and interventions which are specifically designed to change individuals' behaviour - in this case, to discourage them from further offending. Proper evaluation of the effectiveness of these processes and interventions needs long-term data which monitors not only the behaviour, which is the focus of the intervention, but the wider circumstances of the subject, whether they change (either as result of the intervention or not) and how those circumstances and changes impact on behaviour and the success of the intervention. This type of evaluation is not currently a feature of the Scottish research portfolio.
D1.22 Although Scotland has only limited longitudinal data capable of supporting evaluation of the second outcome the Edinburgh Study represents a prime example of how such data should look. A wealth of administrative data has been collected on crime and the criminal justice process much of which was provided at the individual level - offences committed, contact with the police, court appearances and disposals, prison statistics, social work records, and referrals to the Children's Reporter. This information is not currently accessed or utilised for research purposes and its quality, e.g. court records is variable. However, it could in principle be used, for example, in the same way as health data in Scotland. The richness of the Edinburgh Study dataset demonstrates the value of such data in research terms. The Scottish Longitudinal Study, for example, would be greatly enhanced and a powerful resource in this domain, if information from the Scottish Criminal Records Office was linked to the existing dataset.
E COMMUNITY AND PUBLIC SERVICES
Outcome 10: We live in well-designed, sustainable places where we are able to access the amenities and services we need
Definition of key concepts
E1.1 Linked in the Spending Review to the objectives of 'wealthier and fairer', 'safer and stronger' and 'greener', this outcome recognises that the characteristics of the local neighbourhood, including the quality of local facilities, the spatial layout, its physical fabric and broader environmental factors, are of substantial importance in shaping individuals' lives. To assess performance properly against this outcome requires not just objective information, which indicates whether or not a community is 'well-designed' or 'sustainable' according to agreed standards, but also information that demonstrates the wider benefits for the Scottish population to be gained by living in that community. These may be health benefits (such as improved recreational facilities leading to an increase in physical activity), economic benefits (better transport links leading to higher employment rates) or social benefits (mixed communities improving integration and cultural tolerance). What is required to evaluate performance against this outcome, therefore, is not only an understanding of what objectively defines 'well-designed' and sustainable communities (and, in opposition, what defines 'poorly designed' and unsustainable communities). We also need to know what defines subjectively 'well-designed' from the perspective of community residents, the processes that support the development of a community in reaching this goal and the impacts those community-level changes have on the people who live there.
E1.2 Existing research and analysis on communities already goes some way to providing definitions of 'well-designed' communities. These are communities which, for example, provide adequate housing stock that meets the current and future housing needs of existing and potential buyers and tenants. They are also communities supported by an adequate transport infrastructure that provides access to sustainable, affordable and good quality public transport. They are also communities that provide access to necessary services in education and health such as schools, nurseries and clinics, as well as other services necessary for the functioning of daily life.
E1.3 "Sustainable places support people in greener, more active lives" states the Spending Review 19, and 'sustainability' could be considered a further feature of a well-designed community. It adds the 'greener' element to this outcome that can be measured through reference to environmental characteristics of a community such as local air quality, presence and accessibility of recycling facilities, making homes more energy efficient (through improving insulation or heating systems) or adopting new, greener technologies.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
E1.4 It is essential, for proper evaluation of this outcome, to consider responses from the community alongside administrative data that can provide details on the design and infrastructure of the community. To assess the state of Scotland's communities, therefore, requires:
- baseline data measuring community residents' access to, use of and appraisal of services,
- details of local housing and accommodation, including housing problems and quality of housing,
- the prevalence of 'sustainable' behaviours amongst residents - encompassing modes of travel and 'greener living', outdoor activity, car use and recycling
- information on their health and well-being, and on their socio-economic characteristics including their employment.
To further assess subjective aspects of the community requires information on residents' satisfaction with their neighbourhood and their perceptions of neighbourhood problems, social and cultural harmony locally, and their attitudes to, and opinions of, others who live around them.
E1.5 This baseline data would allow identification of those areas requiring intervention to improve their status in accordance with this outcome. With the use of longitudinal data the impact of community level change -the introduction of better designed and more sustainable places - via broad regeneration or smaller focussed changes, on individual outcomes and on outcomes for the area as a whole can then be assessed. Outcomes of such interventions can be assessed at both an individual level through, for example, improved health and well-being, lower unemployment, and greater neighbourhood satisfaction, and at neighbourhood level through reduced crime and anti-social behaviour, improved housing stock, and better community relations as measured by subjective indicators of community cohesion. Over time, those communities which most effectively engender positive change can be identified and the processes which have successfully realised that change can be applied elsewhere.
Contribution of existing data
E1.6 Existing historical longitudinal data can already be used to explore interaction between community level characteristics and individual outcomes to inform policy immediately. As may be expected, area-based studies are generally better placed for evaluation of performance against this outcome because they offer more in-depth data about the neighbourhood and community, as well as the characteristics of the individuals involved and often have particular ecologically-related aims and objectives.
E1.7 The West of Scotland Twenty-07 ( WoS) study for example has collected information from cohort members on perceived accessibility to and satisfaction with various services - housing, transport, shopping, recreational facilities, and health services - their perceptions of anti-social problems - vandalism, litter, assault and disturbance from youths, traffic and nuisance from dogs - environmental problems (pollution, burglaries, discarded syringes) fear of crime, neighbourliness and area reputation. This information is linked, for part of the study, with detailed descriptions of the environmental characteristics of the study localities including data on local service provision. WoS data spans twenty years from 1987 to 2007 and thus provides ample opportunity both for the longitudinal analysis of community change over that time, but also to explore the impacts of community interventions and regeneration efforts on later community-level and individual-level outcomes.
E1.8 One of the aims of Go Well Glasgow is "To describe and understand the changes taking place in communities in Glasgow as a result of housing improvement and community regeneration programmes which vary in terms of their size, scope, dimensions, policy focus, mechanisms and timing". Thus this study is very much about attempting to create sustainable communities and measuring success in doing so. Although at its early stages, this study presents considerable potential as a resource for the evaluation of this outcome, or at least for analysis that will support policy to improve performance against this outcome.
E1.9 Many of the other longitudinal studies considered collect information on community and neighbourhood. SHARP includes before and after measures of neighbourhood satisfaction, as well as assessment of neighbourhood problems related to anti-social behaviour, service provision, and environmental qualities. BHPS has collected information on panel members' neighbourhood characteristics at waves 8 and 13. As well as giving their own appraisal of local facilities and services (schools, health, transport, shopping and leisure), panel members are also asked to rate their neighbourhood as a 'good or bad place to live' and why.
E1.10 Much information relevant to this outcome is available cross-sectionally in the Scottish Household Survey and there may be some merit in constructing for general population purposes pseudo-panel data from the SHS to evaluate progress towards this outcome .
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
E1.11 The existence of good quality, comprehensive, longitudinal area-based studies in Scotland means that already some investigations can be undertaken of the issues central to this outcome. However, the focus of these studies on Glasgow and the West of Scotland may have some implications for the relevance of their findings to other localities. There is an argument, therefore, for the establishment of comparable studies in other contrasting areas which will permit some investigation of the general applicability of results.
Outcome 11: We have strong, resilient and supportive communities where people take responsibility for their own actions and how they affect others
Definition of key concepts
E1.12 In the Spending Review this outcome is linked explicitly to the 'safer and stronger' objective. It shares obvious aspects with a number of other outcomes, particularly 'safe from crime' and 'well-designed and sustainable places'. Again, this outcome recognises the importance of neighbourhood characteristics in shaping individuals' lives, but here the community theme moves away from the concepts of neighbourhood design and the infrastructure of services and amenities over to a more explicit focus on the people who live there. The focus is on the relationships between community members and their interactions with each other - in other words the mechanisms that operate within local communities and enable them to succeed. Thus successful communities are not only those that provide the services required in a complementary environment, but also those which engender a sense of belonging, attachment and collective efficacy ('social capital') and through this create a place that is attractive in which to live, work and play.
E1.13 The definition of a 'community' or 'neighbourhood' has long been problematic in research. Often, to accommodate linkage to geographic datasets, or for policy purposes, communities are defined in administrative terms - data zones, census output areas, electoral wards, postcode sectors and local authority areas are examples. While very useful for some policy purposes, often these administrative boundaries do not correspond to any 'real' sense of community as it is experienced and perceived by residents on the ground. The work necessary to resolve such conflicts and to create community boundaries as seen by residents is demanding and resource-intensive and as a result existing administrative boundaries are used almost exclusively in research. 20
E1.14 A number of concepts, instruments and scales exist in community research that attempt to measure what could be described as the strength and resilience of a community and the support that it offers. Many of these instruments are used in the Go Well Glasgow Community Health and Wellbeing study. They include:
- Informal social control. This widely used community indicator particularly in environmental criminology, has also been referred to as 'collective efficacy' and is defined as the capacity of a community to regulate those passing through it in accordance with common values
- Neighbourhood reputation. Reputation is simply how 'good' or 'bad' residents of a particular neighbourhood perceive it to be and how they think people from outside their neighbourhood perceive it
- Safety. The extent to which people feel safe when out and about in their community either during the day or after dark is commonly used as a measure of 'safety' or 'fear of crime'
- Belonging. How much residents feel they 'belong' to their neighbourhood
- Harmony. This concept attempts to capture whether residents feel the community is a place where people from different backgrounds get on well together
- Community participation. This encompasses residents' involvement in volunteering as well as membership of local groups such as sports clubs, interest groups or organisations with a wider societal purpose
- Honesty and trust. Whether residents feel items lost in the neighbourhood would be returned if they were found
- Social cohesion. This is an indication of how close, and friendly, relations are between people living in the neighbourhood often measured through questions which ask about contact with neighbours and familiarity with local people, e.g. how often people speak to their neighbours, and/or how well respondents know other people in their community
- Child-friendliness. More common in child or family-focussed studies, this is sometimes included simply as a question about how 'child-friendly' respondents feel their neighbourhood is. In other cases several more subtle questions are used to measure this
- Incivilities. These are measures of low-level, local disorder such as rubbish in the street, broken windows, vandalism, groups of young people, or public drunkenness, which indicate that unwanted behaviour is not being effectively controlled. Respondents are usually asked to rate how much of a problem each incivility is in their local area
E1.15 On the basis of these measures, a community which is strong, resilient and supportive would be characterised by high levels of informal social control, a positive internal and external reputation, low fear of crime, a strong sense of belonging and social cohesion, perceived high levels of harmony, trust, honesty and contact amongst residents, active community participation, child-friendliness and low levels of incivilities. There is a strong correlation between all of these aspects. As a result, processes and interventions which realise a change in one characteristic are likely to also produce a change in others. For example, improvements in community cohesion are likely to increase informal social control, which will result in a decrease in incivilities. This may result in residents feeling 'safer' and furnishing their neighbourhood with a more positive reputation. Doubtless these community changes will also have broader impacts such as improving the health and wellbeing of residents on the basis that living in an unsupportive community environment characterised by unfriendliness and fear will have negative impacts on the mental health and wellbeing of its inhabitants.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
E1.16 Longitudinal research for this outcome can relate to two issues. What processes enable a community to become 'strong, resilient and supportive'? What benefits, over the long term, living in a strong, resilient and supportive community has for the people who live in those communities? Longitudinal data, which incorporates detailed information collected from community residents, is therefore essential to track changes in community relations, to identify the factors which contribute most effectively to positive community regeneration in this respect, and the effects of positive change on the population, as well as the effects of lack of change where observed.
Contribution of existing data
E1.17 Again, by definition, the area-based studies considered by this review are better placed to provide the right type of evidence for investigating these processes and effects. The community health and wellbeing survey in Go Well Glasgow collects comprehensive information around this theme with data on community cohesion, community participation, safety and belonging, social harmony, informal social control, trust/honesty and contact with neighbours. Each geographical area included in the study has been classified into one of four groups according to its size, location and planned interventions - major transformation areas, special project areas, refurbishment areas, and peripheral estates 21. Scores on the community measures, as well as a combined 'cohesion' score, can be compared and contrasted across these different areas. Over time, changes in this score within areas can be tracked and these changes can be directly linked to the specific interventions undertaken. For example, certain types of intervention may be more successful in improving cohesion in areas with a particular tenure mix, type of housing stock, geographical location or population with particular socio-economic characteristics.
E1.18 The West of Scotland Twenty-07 study, like Go Well, has locality studies as part of the research exercise. The study has also included a similar range of area-based measures as Go Well. However, the vast amount of health data collected in the West of Scotland study means that, unlike Go Well, it is well placed to look at the impact of these aspects of community on the health and well-being of residents. Indeed, a range of studies have already been undertaken to look at this. For example, data have been used to explore the relationship between belonging to social organisations and the risk of heart disease 22. Although no particular consistent patterning emerged, there was a relationship between membership of some groups and better health outcomes. In particular, participation in groups was related to lower levels of psychological distress. Other work compared the health and perceived sense of social inclusion among those living in two socially contrasting neighbourhoods in Glasgow and found a significant (negative) relationship between people's sense of community belonging and symptoms of mental and physical ill-health. 23 However, each of these papers is based on cross-sectional analysis of a single wave of data. The potential for modelling changes in community belonging, participation and social inclusion, the impact of these on health outcomes, and the resulting identification of effective mechanisms and processes for change lie in the longitudinal data.
E1.19 The Edinburgh Study has a strong, ecological element and incorporates a linked 'neighbourhood' study. Unlike the previous two studies, the Edinburgh Study includes the whole of the Edinburgh authority area, which has been divided into 91 distinct neighbourhoods. Measures of informal social control, incivilities, social cohesion and safety have been included at several sweeps of data collection from the youth cohort. The study has also supported a separate 'community survey' of Edinburgh residents measuring community participation, trust, informal social control and other aspects of community relations in the study neighbourhoods. This information is used to generate neighbourhood level measures which can be linked to the main data on young people and is used largely to explore the impact of these measures on individual offending behaviour and neighbourhood levels of crime. Changes in levels of informal social control in neighbourhoods over time can therefore be linked to changes in crime levels, as well as the other area-based measures and to individual outcomes for young people in the cohort.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
E1.20 The availability of data, from the Edinburgh Study, as well as that from the two Glasgow studies, on the component parts of this outcome means that some analysis may be permitted that explores how 'area specific' findings are. However, despite having some geographic variation, all data in this area is based on the experiences of urban-dwellers, and there is a distinct lack of longitudinal information relevant to the inhabitants of Scotland's many rural communities.
Research Exemplar
McVie, S. and Norris, P. (2006) The Effects of Neighbourhoods on Adolescent Property Offending, ESYTC Research Digest No. 11
Neighbourhood characteristics at age 12 do play a part in influencing whether or not a young person starts property offending during early adolescence. Over and above this, young people's perceptions of their neighbourhood impact on their offending. Young people who perceive their areas to be poorly controlled by the adults who reside there are more likely to start offending early. Those who get involved in chronic property offending are significantly more likely than other young people to live in socially disorganised neighbourhoods, which are characterised by frequent population turnover and a high density of young people.
These findings provide support for initiatives which aim to empower communities to deal with offending at the local level by adopting strategies that emphasise a lack of tolerance towards crime and disorder amongst young people and which focus on improving social capital within residential neighbourhoods. Area based initiatives aimed at preventing property crime amongst young people are most likely to be effective if they target adolescents at age 12 or under, whereas those who start offending later appear to be less influenced by neighbourhood conditions.
Outcome 15: Our public services are high quality, continually improving, efficient and responsive to local people's needs
Definition of key concepts
E1.21 Efficient and accessible delivery of high quality public services has long been an objective of central and local government administrations. It is on this aspect of performance that members of the public most readily assess government and where they are quickest to criticise. This is also a key measure for local authorities, as many of the services being provided to, and assessed by, the public are provided by local authorities. However, providing good quality public services is not simply a ploy to satisfy the general public; the outcome acknowledges that access to appropriate and necessary services can have a significant positive impact on individual outcomes. For example, recent research from the Growing Up in Scotland study has demonstrated the independent positive correlation between a mother's attendance at ante-natal classes - a key element of ante-natal service delivery - and breastfeeding initiation 24. However, GUS data also indicates that particular groups of mothers are less likely to attend ante-natal classes in relation to one or more of a set of specific aspects - awareness of the classes or their mode of delivery, for example. The suggestion is, therefore, adapting the provision of ante-natal classes ( i.e. being 'responsive to people's needs') and raising attendance levels amongst these key sub-groups, will subsequently increase breastfeeding initiation, bringing with it the widely recognised benefits of breastfeeding for the mothers and children involved.
E1.22 Currently, the processes used to assess public service provision do not regularly draw on this type of longitudinal approach. Instead, assessment has traditionally been conducted via 'performance monitoring' where targets are set and performance against these targets is reviewed on a regular basis. Examples include annual publication of the percentage of primary school classes with less than 20 pupils, or the proportion of hospital day-patient cases concluded within a set time-period. Whilst this part of the process is important, it does not provide a comprehensive appraisal of public service provision.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
E1.23 It is necessary, when demonstrating improvement, to consider the processes and mechanisms (inputs) through which improvement is achieved and to be able to account gains (or losses) in efficiency, quality of and responsiveness (outputs) to these processes. Those processes identified as most successful in improving performance can then be applied, where relevant, to other areas of service provision. For example, the improvement of a health board may be assessed in relation to faster and more convenient access to care and an increase in the range of services available. The mechanisms which support that improvement may include increases in staff alongside expansion and modernisation of the buildings, equipment and facilities available to care for patients. Whilst cross-sectional data can demonstrate improvements in quality, efficiency, and responsiveness it does not permit a clear understanding of the processes which have supported those improvements.
E1.24 This outcome demands that performance is assessed in four overlapping domains - quality, continuous improvement, efficiency and responsiveness. Any data being used to evaluate performance therefore requires the combination of data from across these domains and is also likely to require joint use of both administrative and survey data. Measuring efficiency for example necessitates some form of economic analysis - simply what it costs to provide the service - to demonstrate cost effectiveness and value for money. This involves use of administrative data. On the other hand, being responsive to local people's needs can only be achieved by investigating those needs - by asking local people about local services - which requires survey data. Such data is also necessary across the full range of public service provision in health, education, justice, leisure and other policy areas.
Contribution of existing data
E1.25 A significant proportion of the resources reviewed contain some data about public services. This usually takes the form of a measure, or measures, of respondent access to, contact with, and appraisal of, local services. Health, education, childcare, employment, leisure and transport services are covered in some form across the various longitudinal resources although very few cover multiple services in different domains. Data on health services is most prevalent and most detailed. For example, the BHPS has included information on use of health services as a 'core' element of the individual questionnaire since its launch. The scale and detail of additional data collected by BHPS allows patterns of health service use to be assessed in relation to various health-related or other outcomes.
E1.26 Both MCS and GUS also contain a range of information about access to and use of various health services as well as detailed information on use and appraisal of childcare services. By considering information on assessment of local services (that is, how good or bad they are perceived to be, problems with cost or access) alongside actual data on service use and contact, the effect of perceptions on use can be examined. Each of these studies is a particularly useful source to look at the specific issues related to service delivery for children and families, and how service use can impact on child outcomes. The single example outlined above demonstrates this value in relation to GUS, but there are numerous other analytical opportunities presented by these datasets. Furthermore, the large sample size of GUS allows separate analysis of key sub-groups to be undertaken, such as lone parents and younger mothers. The aim is to assess the particular service needs and service assessments of parents in those groups. The Families and Children study also has relevant data within this area and for families with children of a broader age range than in the cohort studies. Both MCS and FACS, with UK-wide samples, offer the ability to compare service use and assessment by families in Scotland with those in other areas of the UK, as well as exploring any potential difference in outcomes from accessing particular services.
E1.27 Apart from health and children and families, there are a number of longitudinal sources that support investigations of the quality and responsiveness of employment services, and the employment-related outcomes associated with the effectiveness of these services. For example, the Scottish School Leavers Study collects information on careers guidance received by the respondent, as well as data on how they found a job. Linking this to later information on economic activity means the success (or otherwise) of the careers service or other sources of advice, or of government training schemes, in leading to the individual obtaining secure and stable employment. Similar can be judged. Analysis can also be undertaken using the Labour Force Survey, which has a bigger Scottish sample size and permits UK comparisons, although the time-period is more restricted.
E1.28 Similar to the community data just discussed, the Scottish Household Survey collects a wide range of data on the public's access to, use and appraisal of various public services. With a large national dataset, capable of analysis at local authority level, there may be some benefit to be gained from constructing pseudo-panel data for longitudinal analysis.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
E1.29 Longitudinal data on access to, use and appraisal of public services is available through a range of sources. It is a fragmented picture, as may be expected, with those studies focussed on families and children collecting information on the services of most relevance to those groups and no single longitudinal source presents as comprehensive an assessment of public services as does the Scottish Household Survey for example. Thus, utilisation of multiple resources will be necessary to cover fully all the issues central to this outcome.
Community summary
E1.30 Community issues are ripe for consideration via longitudinal data and analysis and Scotland has some excellent examples of existing longitudinal research capable of doing so. It is in this domain that the change realised through policy interventions is perhaps most visually obvious to the population creating readily identifiable 'before' and 'after' conditions through new housing or improved amenities. Of course, many interventions required here will also be of a different type such as increased service provision, better community relations or more cost-effective services.
E1.31 Similarly to the economic outcomes, the study of communities requires multi-level longitudinal data and multi-level analysis. Evaluating these outcomes will require at once data measuring community level characteristics and change (to explore the extent to which communities are well-designed and sustainable for example) and the characteristics of and any change in the individuals who live in those communities (to investigate community strength, resilience and support). Data linkage is thus also important here to combine survey data from residents with administrative data on local infrastructure and services. The area-based studies - West of Scotland Twenty-07, Go Well Glasgow, and the Edinburgh Study - are of particular value in relation to this domain as they offer detailed area-focussed data along with individual level data and permit the study of effects from different levels. The West of Scotland study, with data spanning twenty years, is the most comprehensive of the three and presents the most detailed dataset.
E1.32 Furthermore, the inclusion of health data allows the study of community-level influences on individual health outcomes. Go Well Glasgow, whilst still in its infancy, is an ambitious project with multiple complementary components and is an excellent example of involving local authorities as research partners. It is notable that the first two of these studies is based in, and focuses on, the City of Glasgow. This is warranted of course as Glasgow exhibits extreme and specific examples of many social problems. However, because of the local area focus, the question arises of how 'generalisable ' the findings emerging from these studies are to those in other areas, and to Scotland nationally. How different are the experiences being measured in these studies to experiences elsewhere? Without comparable data, either nationally or from other areas, this question can never be fully answered. It would seem beneficial therefore, to have similar, longitudinal, community data generated elsewhere.
F. ENVIRONMENT
Outcome 12: We value and enjoy our built and natural environment and protect it and enhance it for future generations
Definition of key concepts
F1.1 This outcome acknowledges the importance of Scotland's distinct natural environment to its identity, economy, residents and visitors. This natural environment supports a diverse range of living environments, including a large number of remote rural communities. The characteristics and needs of the people and businesses within these communities are specific to the locality and must be understood fully - alongside those in urban and more populated areas,- in national policymaking processes. In other words, policies must take account of the differences and similarities between the people living in these different areas, and evidence to support policymaking must allow these distinctions to be made. There is also a focus on built environment, and whilst the Spending Review refers to this largely in terms of historical buildings, it also encompasses issues related to the standard and provision of housing in Scotland, a key issue which has been touched on in relation to other outcomes.
F1.2 Consideration has already been paid in this chapter to the significance of community dynamics and local service provision in ensuring positive outcomes for individuals and businesses. The importance of longitudinal data in investigating this has also already been stated. This outcome recognises further that many people and organisations in Scotland rely on their surrounding natural environment for their livelihood and the quality and sustaining of that natural environment is crucial to their success, individually and economically. Agriculture and fishing are two relevant traditional industries, but tourism and outdoor leisure facilities are more modern examples.
F1.3 Access to and use of the natural environment by those who are less obviously surrounded by it is also important. This may be through using parks or local open spaces, or the extent to which people visit open countryside or interact with our wider open spaces and more impressive landscapes through hill-walking, sightseeing, holidays etc.
F1.4 The distinct impact of housing tenure and housing conditions on a range of individual outcomes has long been acknowledged and a number of research studies, including many which have utilised longitudinal data and analysis, have demonstrated close links, between housing characteristics, health and disadvantage 25. For example, analysis of data from the 1970 British Cohort Study indicated that cohort members who lived in social housing as children were more likely to live in social housing as adults and further, that parental housing tenure was a key correlate of adult disadvantage. In addition, analysis of NCDS data has shown that experience of housing deprivation has a substantial impact on the risk of cohort members suffering severe ill health or disability. Indeed, after controlling for a range of other factors, experience of multiple housing deprivation increased the risk of severe ill-health or disability across the life course by 25% on average 26. Similar associations have also been produced using Scottish data from the West of Scotland study 27. Indeed the spending review itself acknowledges this important link 28. This outcome thus highlights the need to understand where housing in Scotland is not 'valued' or 'enjoyed' and is in fact detrimental to individual outcomes. There is clearly a need to improve housing conditions in these cases.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
F1.5 Longitudinal research on rural life and rural economies, or longitudinal data that supports separate consideration of these communities and businesses, will allow the identification of the specific factors, processes and mechanisms that generate positive outcomes for individuals living and working in these environments. The identification of these distinct processes and mechanisms will ensure that policies and services for such communities can be tailored to suit their circumstances and needs, will properly recognise the role of the natural environment, and will help sustain the natural environment. This strategy will help to ensure the role of the natural environment role in local community life can be maintained
F1.6 To evaluate properly progress against this outcome requires two types of data. To examine issues related to the natural environment of the kind outlined above requires studies of the general population with samples large enough to support analysis by area urban-rural characteristics or smaller, geographical units. Data collected within these studies must allow consideration of the interaction between local environment and socio-economic characteristics and outcomes. As such information on employment and economic activity, income, quality of life, housing, education, health and service use would be beneficial. Administrative data covering key rural economies reliant on the natural environment, such as the annual agricultural census based on farms, is also necessary. Indeed, such data could be used to identify specific communities or rural areas for use in research.
F1.7 On built environment, it is necessary to have comprehensive data on housing tenure as well as housing conditions. Of the latter these conditions may relate to amenities, dampness, heating and energy efficiency. To look at the impact of housing on individual outcomes of course requires outcome data on health or measures of disadvantage. To isolate the individual effect of housing as compared to other socio-economic or demographic characteristics of the household or individual also necessitates data on those characteristics. Administrative data on the availability, uptake and quality of housing stock will also be useful. The availability of this type of administrative data over time will allow some measurement of the extent to which housing stock has been 'enhanced'.
Contribution of existing data: Natural environment
F1.8 Of the longitudinal resources considered, the Scottish Longitudinal Study is perhaps the most useful because of its large sample size and geographical data. The census information included in the study allows consideration of the socio-demographic characteristics and economic activity of the population in these areas as compared to other areas. Importantly, SLS can also look at patterns of migration in and out of specific areas and communities over time and relate them to the socio-economic data. This makes the study particularly important for evaluating the success of policies aimed at sustaining, or refreshing, remote and rural populations.
Research Exemplar
Jones, G. and Jamieson, L. (1993) Young People in Rural Scotland: Getting Out and Staying On , Centre for Educational Sociology, Briefing Paper No.13
The research was based on analysis of the Scottish Young People's Survey, and follow-up interviews in young adulthood with respondents who had been at school in the Scottish Borders when they were aged 16 years.
Migration "works": among those with similar academic ability, migrants are in better economic positions at age 23 than those who have stayed on in the area. By then, some stayers feel discontented and trapped, and would like to leave but they lack the training and skills to compete for jobs elsewhere.
Stayers are usually from local families. Migrants tend to be from families with a history of migration and extended family networks. While some young people are too attached to the area to leave even if they could do better elsewhere, others cannot wait to get away.
Migrants sometimes long to return, but the local labour market does not attract them back once they have obtained qualifications. Aspiring returners, and the few who do return, tend to be from local families with strong local networks.
Policies should be offering real choice to young people rather than be designed simply to retain them in rural communities. Support and information are needed for the migrate-or-stay decision. Parents are not all equipped to provide relevant information, and the formal guidance system fails to recognise the dilemmas and tensions involved.
F1.9 With a Scottish sample size of 12,000 households and (partial) geographic coverage beyond the Great Glen, the Labour Force Survey can also be used to look at specific labour market issues in rural communities as they compare to other communities. The sample design of the forthcoming UKHLS should also be sufficient to allow some analysis of Scottish data according to area geographic characteristics.
F1.10 The Agricultural Census of farms and other sources of environmental data will be necessary for evaluation of this outcome particularly if used in conjunction with survey data where appropriate. However, the inter-departmental business register ( IDBR) is also relevant. Being almost universal in its coverage of Scottish businesses, the register could be used to isolate organisations either operating in particular sectors related to the natural environment -marine, agriculture, tourism, leisure - and/or by geographic location. The trajectories of and changes in these business can then be tracked over time contributing to an understanding of the economic prosperity of rural or remote areas, or their reliance on particular industries for survival. Much of agricultural administrative data is collected to meet European Union requirements, with potential for cross-national research.
Contribution of existing data: Built environment
F1.11 A number of the sources already described in relation to previous outcomes on inequality, community, and access to amenities have demonstrated consistently the value of a number of existing key dataset. Go Well Glasgow and the Scottish Longitudinal Study are particularly valuable in relation to housing tenure and characteristics and their relationship with other socio-economic and demographic variables. Furthermore, the references cited above, which provide existing research examples of this type of analysis, illustrate the value of the birth cohort studies in this respect. However, a number of other sources reviewed are also useful for exploring housing effects.
F1.12 The Scottish Health, Housing and Regeneration Project was set up specifically to measure the health and wellbeing impacts of moving into new, general purpose, social housing provided by Registered Social Landlords. Its aim is to examine to what extent re-housing into a new socially rented accommodation delivers changes in terms of housing conditions, neighbourhood conditions, housing management performance and sense of community; this in addition to changes in the health and wellbeing of tenants. SHARP represents the only resource reviewed which was established with a quasi-experimental design involving 'before' and 'after' interviews with a 'treated' and 'control' group. For the purposes of SHARP, the treated group are those tenants who are re-housed, and the control group are a sample of similar tenants who are not re-housed. The availability of comparative data from a control group, alongside longitudinal data on their health and wellbeing, allows the investigation of the independent effects of improved housing conditions. Whilst ambitious, the study is limited by its small sample size - both groups contain between just 300 and 400 households.
Research Exemplar
Lupton, R. (ongoing research project) "The Association between Housing and Life Chances: Control Measures", Institute of Education, University of London
A good example of the use of longitudinal research for Scottish policy purposes is reflected in SG recent investment in a Scottish component of the further analysis of data collected on UK social housing in the 1946, 1958 and 1970 birth cohort studies. This follows preliminary results showing evidence of rising social exclusion among residents in the more recent cohorts. The new analysis will supply through statistical modelling insights into the reasons for this phenomenon pointing to the features of social housing, including the attributes of those who use it, that need to be changed to reverse the social exclusion process.
F1.13 A key administrative dataset relevant for this outcome is the Scottish Continuous Recording system ( SCORE). SCORE collects information from Registered Social Landlords ( RSLs) about new lets made in any given year. As well as collecting data about the type and condition of the property being let it also collects financial information about the let, including rent and affordability, as well as financial and demographic characteristics of the tenants. SCORE is longitudinal at two levels: the level of the property - which will remain in the database as long as it is managed by a RSL participating in the scheme - and the level of the tenant - should the tenant move to another property registered on the database then that move can be tracked, and their financial and demographic details will be updated. SCORE represents a rich, administrative dataset perhaps most suitable for use as a sampling frame for further research. It can also be viewed as a source to which survey data exploring household and individual socio-economic and demographic information about the property could be linked.
F1.14 SCORE is limited in that it includes only information about housing managed by RSLs, thus owner-occupied housing, or privately rented accommodation is not included. Furthermore, not all RSLs participate in the project, although the dataset is sufficiently large to allow detailed analysis despite this.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
F1.15 In relation to natural environment, the restrictions on sample size, the relevant data content for this outcome, and the need to be able to examine issues specific to remote and rural communities, restrict the number of existing resources available. As acknowledged in relation to the community-focussed outcomes, there are no distinct longitudinal studies of rural communities in Scotland. The proposed survey of attitudes and values in rural Scotland study is cross-sectional but may over time include panel elements.
F1.16 In contrast, there is a wide range of longitudinal data available with which to explore the importance of elements of the built environment, particularly in relation to housing and some of this work is already being done using data from the birth cohort studies. The value of data from Go Well Glasgow is yet to be realised, and there may also be some scope to exploit the SCORE data in analysis of the questions at the heart of this outcome.
Outcome 14: We reduce the local and global environmental impact of our consumption and production
Definition of key concepts
F1.17 Placed firmly within the boundaries of the 'greener' objective, this outcome draws on the widely publicised and acknowledged environmental implications of current consumption and production practices typified by excess, harmful emissions and unnecessary waste of energy and materials. Considerable efforts have already been made to draw attention to these issues and to introduce policies to counter them - the introduction of local and national targets on emissions and waste management for example, or increased access for the population to recycling facilities. Despite these efforts, moving towards 'greener' consumption and production remains a significant task and many individuals and organisations are not yet aligning themselves with the understanding and behaviour necessary to demonstrate real progress against this outcome.
F1.18 To realise this goal, therefore, policy needs to change both the values and behaviour of those individuals and organisations raising the importance, for them, of being more environmentally friendly. However, policies designed to do this must be based on an understanding of the factors associated with greener behaviour, the barriers which prevent it, and the mechanisms which most effectively allow individuals and organisations to change their behaviour. For example, at the individual level, simply introducing more recycling facilities may not necessarily result in higher levels of recycling if either transport to such facilities is problematic or there is a low level of awareness of the importance of recycling. Similarly, the introduction of targets for businesses to enforce greater use of renewable energy, or lower emissions, may not be successful if the implications for businesses of reaching those targets are counter-productive in terms of cost or other aspects. There must also be an agreed understanding of how 'impact' is measured and whether it requires different interpretations in different contexts. For example, whilst nuclear power may have low impact in terms of being less carbon intensive than fossil fuel, it carries other dangers to the environment.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
F1.19 Longitudinal data that tracks awareness of, and opinions towards, environmental issues, and the prevalence of 'green' behaviours, will provide the evidence necessary for effective policies. In addition, at the level of the individual, combining data on 'greener living' with other outcome data, particularly in relation to health, will provide the opportunity to investigate the benefits of adopting a more environmentally sympathetic lifestyle. For example, the adoption of a more sustainable approach to transport encourages lower car use and more walking or cycling. These behaviour changes can raise levels of fitness and activity accompanied by the health benefits with which these behaviours are associated. In addition, reducing emissions creates cleaner air, another health benefit. However, situations are likely to be more complex than suggested here. For example, a new by-pass may generate more emissions by encouraging people to use their cars, or less through reducing congestion.
F1.20 To evaluate progress against this outcome thus ideally requires information on the consumption of individuals and households - particularly in terms of food, utilities and transport (especially car use) as well as 'green' behaviours in each of these domains including use of energy efficiency measures at home (insulation or energy-efficient light bulbs for example), recycling and composting. Measures of awareness and attitudes are also important. Similar information would also be required for businesses. Alongside this is data which can provide an overall assessment of the state of Scotland's natural environment - pollution, air quality, water quality and associated measures.
Contribution of existing data
F1.21 There are no existing resources available to provide longitudinal data of green behaviours for individuals, households or businesses in Scotland. The Expenditure and Food Survey, a UK cross-sectional study, provides detailed information on household consumption patterns, but does not present opportunities for longitudinal analysis, and has a small Scottish sample. However, the proposed content of UKHLS does include a number of measures, included as biennial measures, relevant to this outcome. These include fuel consumption, values, beliefs and attitudes regarding global environmental issues, behaviour and attitudes regarding food, waste and water, and activities which engage with the natural environment. The richness of the additional data collected in UKHLS will allow that detailed analysis of the factors and characteristics associated with greener behaviours will be possible using this dataset.
F1.22 A large amount of environmental data is routinely collected and analysed by a range of government agencies such as the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency. This is a huge administrative resource that can be used longitudinally at the level of the feature being assessed - a river for example. There is potential for the environmental data to be used as 'outcome' information to demonstrate the impact of changing behaviours by individuals and businesses over time although this would be a complex analytical task.
Gaps, obstacles and challenges
F1.23 The importance of studying and attempting to change individual consumption patterns to make them 'greener' is a relatively recent identified need which perhaps explains the lack of longitudinal information in this area. The proposed related content of UKHLS would seem sufficient to explore this area in the first instance.
Environment summary
F1.24 Although essentially related, the specific issues covered in this domain - natural environment, built environment, and the environmental effects of production and consumption are quite distinct and some lend themselves more easily to consideration and evaluation through longitudinal data.
F1.25 Scotland takes great pride in its natural environment, and many people in remote and rural communities rely on it to support local business and the local economy, which in turn impacts on local levels of employment and wealth. The analysis of outcomes in previous sections has shown the effect of these latter factors on individual outcomes. As such, it is important, particularly for the residents of these communities, that the mechanisms and processes which make them successful, and their relationship with the natural environment are properly understood. There are datasets which can support some elements of what is required here. All are large enough to allow representation of remote and rural situations - the IDBR, the Labour Force Survey and the Scottish Longitudinal Study - but each have their limitations. In their most recent designs, each of the large-scale, cross-sectional government surveys - Scottish Household Survey, Scottish Health Survey, Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey - all have large enough samples to support detailed analysis of issues specific to remote or rural areas. But there is no longitudinal data of this nature. The case for a longitudinal study specifically focussed on people who live in rural and remote areas is therefore a strong one.
F1.26 The importance of housing as a factor which impacts on individual outcomes has been shown in this domain and others. The British cohort studies have been put to good use for exploration of the effects of housing, and work is still ongoing in this area using these datasets - including some analysis commissioned specifically for Scottish Government use. There are other datasets of relevance particularly the area studies - Go Well Glasgow and West of Scotland. SHARP, limited by its size, is nonetheless a good example of the type of quasi-experimental study, with housing at its heart, that could be rolled out on a larger scale to support more detailed analysis.
F1.27 As questions relating to the environment, however it is defined, become more important, so does the need to understand the processes involved more clearly. Hence the case for longitudinal data. How much there is to be gained from considering environmental issues related to consumption and production longitudinally is difficult to judge and there is no useful data currently available for this. Early examination of the environmentally-focussed content proposed in the forthcoming UKHLS will be necessary before decisions are made about further investment in the collection of such environmental data.
G. INEQUALITY
Outcome 7: We have tackled the significant inequalities in Scottish society
Definition of key concepts
G1.1 This outcome is sufficiently broad that it explicitly links to three objectives in the Spending Review - wealthier and fairer, healthier, and safer and stronger. It is clear however, on further consideration, that inequalities can also be defined and measured in relation to variables relevant to the 'smarter' and 'greener' objectives if not all five. Indeed, the Spending Review recognises that, often, inequalities in each of these domains are experienced simultaneously creating households with multiple and complex needs. For example, people on low incomes, with higher material deprivation, often live in disadvantaged communities with fewer local resources or resources of lower quality. They are likely to have inferior housing and accommodation, have fewer skills and lower educational attainment, are less successful in employment, suffer poorer health and have difficulty accessing the services they require. In aggregate their situation may translate into what is typically described as 'social exclusion' a form of isolation in which social cohesion is under threat. Reducing these inequalities therefore, "requires a shared endeavour across Scotland to tackle the root causes" 29 and to expose and understand these root causes requires longitudinal data.
G1.2 With such a broad focus, it is instructive to give some space to considering how 'inequalities' might be understood in relation to key policy domains.
G1.3 Measuring inequality is challenging because it shifts the emphasis away from the level in the population of an attribute as expressed in the mean value, and what predicts it, to individual variation between individuals within the population around the mean - as measured by the variance. Moreover economic inequality with which the term is typically identified, such as in wealth, is just part of a complex picture. Whilst levels of household or personal income may give an overall, and general, indication of the differences in wealth amongst the population and how this varies between such demographic characteristics as social class and gender, income is but one aspect of what can be considered 'wealth'. To understand inequality fully in this domain therefore requires measurement of less obvious components of wealth to produce a detailed picture of the financial situation of the individual and by extension their family and community. These components may include ownership of assets, material deprivation, car ownership, household facilities, savings, pensions, and levels of credit or debt. Furthermore, given that housing accounts for a significant proportion of individual or household wealth, it is important to collect information on housing equity, a concept that is particularly challenging to measure.
G1.4 Under education and lifelong learning, inequalities may relate to differences in access to learning, training, and further and higher education, and their outcomes in qualifications. These may lead ultimately to differences in employability and access to jobs. To measure these types of inequality requires data on educational attainment and skills, literacy and numeracy, access to and familiarity with ICT, employment, and employment-related training.
G1.5 Health inequalities exist in the numerous domains of health which have been discussed already. However, particular interest focuses on examining differences in experience of acute and long-standing illness, health-related lifestyle choices and behaviour, and access to and use of health services.
G1.6 Inequalities also exist at an area-level. 'Safer and stronger' communities, which will be discussed below, are characterised by a range of factors including access to services, low-levels of crime, disorder and anti-social behaviour, and high levels of satisfaction, trust, informal social control and integration. To compare communities and examine inequalities between them therefore requires this type of data to be available on different communities in Scotland. Of key interest in this area, specifically in relation to Scotland, are differences according to urban-rural classification.
G1.7 Inequalities also exist through discrimination, prejudice, abuse and harassment on the basis of gender, race, religion or other individual characteristics. Measuring these inequalities therefore requires not only information on the individual characteristics which form the basis of the discrimination but also on the type and nature of discrimination experienced.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
G1.8 The complex and multi-faceted nature of inequalities, and the need for combined information to measure them, is already recognised to a degree in a key source of Government administrative data. The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation ( SIMD) utilises information on 37 indicators across seven domains - current income, employment, health, education, skills and training, geographic access to services, housing, and crime. SIMD is reported at data zone level, which allows small pockets of deprivation to be identified. Although essentially cross-sectional in nature, SIMD is updated every few years allowing analysis of change in deprivation, or inequalities, at an area level, over time. While SIMD is extremely useful for considering area-level inequalities, and their effects on individual outcomes, as with any area level measure there is a risk of 'false positives' or 'ecological fallacy' where some individuals living within deprived areas are not subject to the deprivation and inequality assigned to them by the area level measure. Similarly many people outside the high deprivation area may be overlooked. As such, individual level data is also necessary.
G1.9 By using individual, longitudinal data there is an opportunity to gain insights into what 'causes' inequality; what are the factors that lead to the vast differences amongst the population? Longitudinal data also permits investigation of the mechanisms that maintain inequality, the barriers which stop people from improving their status, and the most effective means of overcoming those barriers.
G1.10 Note however, that the most significant changes in inequality occur as a result of broader international or society-level macro-economic change. Thus, for example, changes in the terms of trade can have an adverse effect on the lower paid, with the decline of trade unions impacting on the status of manual workers. Technological change - particularly through the expansion of information technology in employment - further reduces the 'unskilled' sector forcing many out of work. Such transformation will be picked up only indirectly via household surveys.
G1.11 The Spending Review is explicit in its acknowledgement of the value of longitudinal data in relation to this outcome - "by improving employability, housing and communities and by giving our children the best possible start in life, we will help reduce inequalities later in life" 30. The availability, and the results of analysis, of historical longitudinal data already permit some understanding of what can be improved at an earlier stage in order to produce a desired outcome later; it can thus already inform policy specification. For example, we can track the reduction in gender inequalities in education and employment going to using the 1946, 1958 and 1970 birth cohort studies 31. However, contemporary and concurrent longitudinal data is also required to assess accurately the impact of observed changes on current employability, housing and communities on later outcomes. In relation to health inequalities, the Spending Review states a desire to "encourage everyone…to take more ownership of their health" suggesting an aspiration to change people's behaviour in relation to their health-related lifestyle. Without longitudinal data the extent to which any individual has actually done this (stopped smoking, reduced alcohol intake or changed their diet, for example) cannot be measured.
G1.12 Given the broad range across which inequalities are measured, most of the studies offer some ability to look at inequality in some form. However, there are a number of key studies which offer a particularly good resource to study multiple inequalities and the interactions between them or particular inequalities in detail.
G1.13 'Go Well Glasgow' is an example of the former. Go Well encompasses a number of separate, but related, research exercises, several of which have a longitudinal element and all of which aim to examine (particularly related to housing and neighbourhood) social and health inequalities across the population of Glasgow. Although the project is based in Glasgow, it is intended to provide findings that are relevant to national policy, drawing on, as exemplars, the particularly acute social problems that exist in Glasgow. The Go Well framework document states that "Glasgow is a particularly interesting city in which to study urban change and its impacts in this way due to the scale of deprivation and level of inequalities within the city. Glasgow experiences in extreme form many of the problems identified…as national policy priorities." 32 The Community Health and Wellbeing Study is following 6000 randomly selected individuals in 14 key areas of Glasgow over a 6-year period, with interviews conducted every two years. The study collected baseline information on health, including general health, illness, health behaviours, housing, neighbourhood, and income - the key domains across which inequalities persist - and monitoring changes in these characteristics across the cohort over time. It therefore presents a valuable resource to first identify the extent of inequalities which exist, examine the interactions between different types of inequality and track the extent to which things change, what fuels that change or what prevents it. This study is particularly well-placed, because of its multi-level ecological design, to study area effects and the impact of local community-based initiatives on individual outcomes. With a particular focus on housing, the study is also well-placed to explore how housing conditions (in which significant inequalities exist) and how improvements in housing may impact on other outcomes and inequalities in other domains (such as health).
G1.14 As its title suggests, the new Wealth and Assets survey collects particularly detailed information on financial and non-financial assets of households making it an invaluable source with which to examine inequalities of wealth in its broadest sense. Whilst the majority of studies considered in the context of this review collect data on household income, few provide much additional detail on the precise financial situation of sampled households. The content of WaAS extends to include information on unsecured debt and pensions both of which, in recent years, have been subject to intense scrutiny and in which there is a significant degree of inequality. WaAS permits detailed consideration of the relationship between different types and measures of wealth and thus a greater understanding of wealth inequalities. This detail, combined with longitudinal data, means that more precise examination can be made of changes in financial status. Theses include increases or decreases in unsecured debt, uptakes of bank accounts or investments, the characteristics of those who makes these changes, and the wider impacts of these changes on the quality of life in the longer-term.
G1.15 The principle limitation of WaAS is that it collects little information other than that which is directly related to the financial situation of the household: only some basic socio-economic information on household composition, employment, education, and housing tenure is available. As such, the study cannot be used to measure the impact of specific changes in wealth on broader outcomes, or inequalities in other domains.
G1.16 While still at an early stage of development, the Life Opportunities Survey ( LOS) aims to explore "the barriers disabled people experience" throughout their lives and in key policy domains - employment, education, and access to and receipt of services. As the study will also include non-disabled respondents, the precise inequalities experienced by disabled people can be identified and the status of these inequalities monitored over time. Furthermore, by examining the trajectories of those disabled people who achieve their goals, data from LOS could, potentially, identify the mechanisms that are most effective in overcoming the barriers faced by disabled people and contribute to more informed policy implementation.
G1.17 The Longitudinal Survey of Refugees ( LSR) is another study that has a population sub-group as its focus, and a sub-group often significantly under-represented in other research. LSR will collect a range of socio-economic information from refugees and asylum-seekers on employment and economic activity, income, housing characteristics and interaction with health, education and legal services. This data will, initially, permit an understanding of the particular inequalities experienced by this group - how their employment, income and housing characteristics, for example, compare with the rest of the population. Over time however, the data will show how their experience is sustained or altered; it will permit an understanding of what helps overcome the inequalities and, in particular, allow identification of the barriers preventing integration or the mechanisms facilitating it. The study will contain a small Scottish sample of only 200 adults, which means that Scotland-only analysis will be limited, but findings from analysis of the wider dataset are likely to be of relevance.
Inequalities summary: gaps, obstacles and challenges
G1.18 The broad nature of this outcome is such that it bears some relevance to each of the five strategic objectives and it can sensibly be discussed in relation to each of the policy domains defined in this chapter. Furthermore, research evidence indicates that all too often, inequalities in each of these domains are experienced simultaneously creating disadvantaged households and individuals with multiple and complex needs. The evaluation of measures designed to reduce inequality therefore requires multi-purpose data across these many domains. Not only that, but data is also required at different levels as often macro-level shifts impact more significantly on local or individual level inequality. Indeed, attributing (or determining) individual 'causes' of inequality is difficult because of the significance of these broader, societal level changes.
G1.19 Nevertheless, there is much to be gained from the longitudinal examination of progress against this outcome, and almost all of the datasets considered have something valuable to add. Those studies, such as Go Well Glasgow, which consider multiple inequalities at individual and community level have particular value. Those whose focus is on the population sub-groups known to suffer disproportionately in terms of unequal status and opportunity, such as those with disabilities, refugees and so on, and whose views are often under represented, particularly merit longitudinal enquiry.
H. IDENTITY
Outcome 13: We take pride in a strong, fair and inclusive national identity
Definition of key concepts
H1.1 National identity can face both inward - in terms of the views of the Scottish population - and outward- in terms of the views of international populations. With regard to the former, in a time of recent considerable in-migration, it is important to understand what 'living in Scotland' means to the Scottish population in terms of their experiences, opportunities and outcomes. It is particularly important to identify and tackle a national identity which impacts negatively on opportunities, experiences and outcomes for the general population or specific sub-groups. It is not explicit in the outcome, whether the 'national identity' being referred to means Scottish identity or otherwise, however, it is clear that the aim of the outcome is not restricted to the achievement of a situation where everyone in Scotland believes that they are 'Scottish', but to ensure that those who do live in Scotland consider it to be a good place to live, learn, work and play. It is an identity defined not in terms of birth, but in terms of residency and values. If people are more comfortable in their surroundings, more integrated into their community and happily identify with the society surrounding them then they are healthier, work harder, and are more committed to the success of that society.
H1.2 Part of the challenge of this outcome is in understanding of what it means for people to live in Scotland and, if necessary, to change their perceptions. It is also to promote a fair and inclusive society where everyone, irrespective of their social or demographic characteristics, has, and feels they have, the right to live or work here, and equally access services and opportunities. Only longitudinal data can demonstrate which people change their perceptions, and through what processes, and permit a move to a more inclusive understanding of national identity. Furthermore, only longitudinal data will demonstrate the impact of changes at a broader societal level on the achievement of this goal. For example, employment is a contentious issue for those with less inclusive attitudes, with a belief that jobs should be open to those born or already established in Scotland before being offered to recent immigrants. Thus, using longitudinal data, we may want to investigate the impact of national or individual employment levels on perceptions of Scottish identity. For example, are those people who are, or become unemployed, in a period of population influx more likely to exhibit less inclusive opinions than those who remain in employment? It is essential to analyse these processes, and to understand how situations and attitudes change over time to effectively administer policies designed for change.
H1.3 In addition, it is also important to understand why those who feel excluded by national identity do so and, using longitudinal data, appraise the interventions designed to combat this and ultimately assist in changing their perspectives. For example, research amongst recent immigrants would explore whether they have access to the same opportunities and services - housing, education, employment - as the indigenous population, alongside their feelings about their opportunities and access, and their integration in, and identification with, Scottish society. The same research can also be applied to other socially excluded sub-groups of the population.
Evaluating progress towards this outcome
H1.4 To measure progress against this outcome requires information on levels of tolerance of, and discrimination towards, individuals of different faiths, nationalities, cultures and ethnicities within society as well as the perceived feelings of integration and identity amongst individuals within such sub-groups. Much of this will be 'attitudinal' data. Such data therefore must be combined with data on access to services, including education and health, as well as other key socio-economic characteristics particularly religious affiliation and ethnicity, and outcome data related to housing, income, employment and family life. Studies such as the British and Scottish Social Attitudes surveys have long encompassed facets of national identity and related ethnic, religious and other forms of cultural integration and discrimination. Whilst their repeat cross-sectional nature is useful in tracking long-term national trends, they do not allow an understanding of changes at the individual level. Whilst there is some longitudinal data capable of exploring notions of identity and how they may change over time (in BHPS and BEPS for example), they rely on fairly limited measures, which could be considered too narrow to encompass the issues of 'inclusion' and 'fairness' covered by this outcome.
H1.5 A number of studies reviewed contain some data that is related to the concept of national identity, but none explore it in enough detail to allow distinct longitudinal analysis of national identity in its own right. Furthermore, as many of these studies are UK-wide, the questions often refer to 'British' rather than 'Scottish' identity. For example, a question in the final interview for the second British Election Panel study asked respondents to agree or disagree with the statement "people like me don't feel at home in Britain".
H1.6 Some potential is offered in the shape of UKHLS and the Longitudinal Study of Refugees ( LSR). The proposed content of UKHLS includes questions on ethnicity and national identity, and discrimination and racism as part of the 'rotating core' suggesting some repetition every few years. The detailed additional information collected as part of this study covers service use, employment, housing and myriad other social characteristics of panel members. These combined with a sample that will include representatives of the new migrant populations in Scotland means UKHLS will be useful for analysis of issues related to national identity. One possible limitation of UKHLS is that sub-groups for whom the creation of a 'fair and inclusive' national identity is of most importance - that is recent immigrant and minority ethnic groups - may not be adequately represented in the sample to allow separate analysis. The LSR avoids this limitation by focussing only on a population who will fall into one or both of these groups. With an explicit focus on identifying the processes which allow successful integration of refugees into society, and through collection of data on the study members' attitudes towards the wider UK population as well as community relations, this study could potentially be important for this outcome.
H1.7 Another study derived from the 1970 cohort study is also relevant in addressing directly the issue of identity using qualitative methods. The samples comprise 60 BCS70 respondents in Scotland and two comparable groups in the north and south of England respectively. Data from the quantitative case records will be used to contextualise the qualitative case studies.
Identity summary: gaps, obstacles and challenges
H1.8 Although national identity is an important issue for many people in Scotland, and for the Scottish Government, it has not so far featured directly in Scottish or UK-wide longitudinal surveys. Reaching a useful and agreed definition of what is meant by 'national identity' is a significant challenge, but is necessary to enable performance against this outcome to be measured over time. There is a case for methodological research to determine how the measurement requirement might be best met. In the meantime UKLHS would appear to offer potentially the best opportunity for pursuing national identity in a specifically Scottish module. It would also show how self -perceived identity changes as panel members get older.
CONCLUSION
The foregoing sections have supplied a rich set of possibilities for research programmes to accompany the implementation of the national strategy. The key longitudinal data sources for the evaluation for each outcome have been identified together with their limitations. Gaps are evident that will need to be filled by new longitudinal data. Priorities for investment in longitudinal resources may therefore need to be re-assessed. Apart from these immediate conclusions, a number of cross-cutting issues have emerged, pointing to the need for further policy appraisal and development with investment consequences. The next chapter examines these issues in some detail leading to our final recommendations.
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