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3 Current and future estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland

3.1 Emissions to 2005

The pattern of greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions in Scotland differs from the pattern found in the rest of the UK. Notable features include:

• Lower industry emissions since the closure of the Ravenscraig integrated steel works.
• Higher emissions from space heating as a result of the cooler climate, more exposed buildings and a higher proportion of buildings with traditional solid walls.
• A lower level of car ownership in urban areas and a corresponding higher use of public transport, along with a high annual mileage for vehicles in rural areas.
• A more significant carbon sink from land use change.

Figure 1 shows the observed trends in Scottish GHG emissions from 1990 to 2005. It is clear that the Scottish GHG inventory is dominated by CO ₂, with significant contributions also from CH ₄ and N ₂O. The contributions of PFCs, HFCs and SF₆ are small, though emissions of both HFCs and SF₆ have both increased in recent years. These three gases are not considered further - changes in their emissions are well within the uncertainties of emission estimates and abatement potentials for the three main GHGs. The red line in Figure 1 shows the effect of an 80% reduction in Scottish GHG emissions (relative to 1990 emission levels).

Figure 1 Net Scottish GHG Emissions 1990 to 2005 ¹¹. The red line corresponds to an 80% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels

Figure 2 shows the same data, but disaggregated by end use sector. Significant contributions are made by electricity generation, industry, residential, agriculture and transport sectors. A negative contribution is made by land use, land use change and forestry ( LULUCF) through its net absorption of carbon from the atmosphere over the years shown.

Figure 2 Scottish GHG Emissions 1990 to 2005 by sector ¹²¹³

The two figures show that Scottish GHG emissions have fallen by 10 MtCO ₂ eq. (16%) since 1990. Hence good progress has been made against the objectives of the Scottish Climate Change Programme and the Scottish contribution to UK Kyoto targets.

It is clear from Figure 2 that no sector is dominant. Achieving an 80% cut therefore requires action to be taken in most, if not all sectors, but the precise distribution of cuts will depend on a more detailed assessment of costs and effectiveness of options.

The following table describes the factors behind the changes in Scottish GHG emissions from 1990 to 2005 in more detail and sets out some of the factors that have led to increases (shown as +) or decreases (shown as -) in emissions.

Table 1 GHG trends and drivers

3.2 Scotland's Future Policy Direction

Before considering the baseline projections for emissions in Scotland to 2050, this section briefly reviews the broader policy context.

With a new Government in place, a number of broad policy initiatives have been launched in the past year. These are presented in the Government Economic Strategy, published in November 2007. This states that:

"Sustainable economic growth is the one central Purpose to which all else in government is directed and contributes."

This purpose has a direct bearing on GHG emissions, as economic growth has in the past been closely associated with growth in emissions. The strategy recognises this tension, hence one of the 5 strategic objectives ¹⁴ set out in the strategy is to deliver a Greener Scotland, with specific targets to:

• Reduce emissions by 80% by 2050 and
• Reduce emissions over the period to 2011.

The strategy notes the initiatives taken in some economies to break the link between emissions and economic growth, citing New Zealand as a leader in this area.

A number of policy developments are underway to take forward the 5 objectives, including the core purpose of economic growth.

These broader economic policy objectives are likely to create some tension with policy measures to reduce emissions. At this early stage of policy development these tensions cannot be pinpointed accurately. However, the UK Climate Change Bill, the consultation on proposals for a Scottish Climate Change Bill and this study all fall under the Greener Scotland objective and hence are linked to the overall Economic Strategy. Thus the overall success of the Strategy and achieving the 80% target are linked.

Recognising this wider context, the policy measures considered, and in particular the feasibility and public acceptability assessment, take into account the wider policy context to achieve sustainable economic growth. As a result some of the more revolutionary measures, such as restricting air travel, need to be carefully assessed, as air travel for tourism and business purposes have a strong link to economic growth.

3.3 Policy options currently in place for further reductions in GHG emissions

A number of measures to address climate change are implemented via EU or UK level initiatives, e.g. the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, or the Renewables Obligation. In some cases Scottish Government co-funds UK programmes, and these are tailored to Scotland's needs. In addition there are a range of Scottish policies for reducing GHG emissions, including:

• The Scottish Community and Householder Renewables Initiative ( SCHRI) - funding small scale renewable energy installations.
• The Central Energy Efficiency Fund ( CEEF) - improving energy efficiency in the pubic sector.
• Stricter building regulations - reducing the GHG footprint of new homes and business premises.
• Scottish Planning Policy 6 ( SPP6): Renewable Energy - setting the planning framework for large and small scale renewable energy.
• Safe and Fuel Efficient Driving - training HGV drivers in fuel efficiency.
• INCREASE- supporting local recycling initiatives to divert waste from landfill.

The impact of these and other existing policy measures needs to be recognised in the baseline emissions projections.

3.4 Projections to 2050

The primary sources of GHG emissions projections for the UK are:

• BERR's projections of CO ₂ emissions as published in the Energy White Paper ¹⁵ and elsewhere, and
• The projections of non-CO ₂GHG emissions that have been updated recently by AEA following earlier work by Entec.

The UK CO ₂ projections are not disaggregated by country and only extend to 2020, while the non-CO ₂ projections only extend to 2030. It has therefore been necessary to disaggregate the baseline projections of UK emissions to give Scottish emissions, and to extend projections to 2050 using parameters such as economic growth or population, along with AEA's knowledge and judgement over trends and specific issues in each sector. This part of the work draws on recent experience of developing projections gained from the Scottish Energy Study, the SKM/ AEA study on "Grid Issues Arising from Potential Changes to the Generation Background in Scotland" and AEA's MARKAL modelling work for BERR and Defra. These studies provide projections to 2020 or in some cases to 2030. For this study these projections have been developed and extended to 2050, giving the baseline scenario are shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 Scottish GHG Emissions 1990 to 2050 by sector

These include CO ₂ emissions from electricity generation, industry, public sector buildings, housing, transport and land use, land use change and forestry ( LULUCF), methane (CH ₄) emissions from waste and agriculture, and N ₂O emissions from agriculture. Together these sources represent about 88% of current Scottish GHG emissions. They do not include non-CO ₂ emissions from industry, electricity generation, households or transport, or emissions from the offshore industry, as it is not possible to consider every possible source within the timeframe of this sort of study. Therefore the totals do not exactly correspond to those presented in Figure 2.

The remaining 12% of Scottish GHG emissions from sources not addressed by this study are expected to fall significantly over the period due to industry trends and the effects of policies in the baseline. The main activities that are responsible for these emissions are:

Table 2: Emissions sources not addressed

While the emissions from these sources will fall over the period to 2050, they may not fall to the 80% level. Hence additional reductions below the 80% level may be required for the GHG sources that are considered in this study.

The BERRUK projections for CO ₂ incorporate a wide range of existing policy measures. Many are UK level policy measures including:

• Climate Change Levy ( CCL)
• Climate Change Agreements ( CCAs)
• EU Emissions Trading Scheme ( EU- ETS)
• Carbon Reduction Commitment ( CRC)
• Carbon Emissions Reduction Target ( CERT)
• Supplier Obligation

The impact of these measures is included in the UK projections. Hence these measures are assumed to have a similar impact in Scotland and are therefore accounted for in the baseline projection.

Some measures specific to Scotland are in place. Many of these are broadly similar to UK measures, with specific budgets or technical details to suit the situation in Scotland. Some examples are:

• Building regulations.
• The CEEF for public bodies (similar to the Carbon Trust/Salix fund but implemented in a different way).
• Loan Action Scotland, interest free loans for SMEs (similar to a Carbon Trust scheme).

The BERR projections do not provide a high level of detail on each policy measure. For example all of the Carbon Trust measures are aggregated as one impact. Hence this study was unable to adjust the baseline projection for Scotland to recognise these specific Scottish policy measures. However they would tend to add savings and hence reduce the baseline.

Total emissions from the sectors considered in this study decline through to 2025, increase over the following 10 years and then stabilise. The CO ₂ projections are largely based on BERR's UK-level projections for the Energy White Paper in 2007 ( EWP 2007 ¹⁶) and so incorporate BERR's assumptions. The results by sector show significant reductions from the electricity generation and residential sectors, and growth from transport and the land use sectors. The main reasons for these baseline trends can be summarised as follows, while further information is provided in the sector profiles ( Section 4).

Looking at the baseline emissions for each sector in turn:

Electricity generation - reduced emissions to 2025 due to increased deployment of renewables and potential closure of existing coal fired power stations, followed by a small increase as coal and nuclear stations in the baseline are assumed to be replaced by gas fired stations. This follows BERR's projections, which assume that energy prices favour new gas fired stations.

Business/industry - fairly flat projection reflecting economic growth in some sub-sectors balanced by ongoing improvements in energy intensity.

Waste management - reduction in emissions due to implementation of the EC Landfill Directive, which restricts the amount of biodegradable waste that can be sent to landfill.

Housing - reduced emissions through existing and planned policies, in particular improved Building Standards and successive obligations on suppliers to introduce energy efficiency measures.

Public sector buildings - reduced emissions through existing and planned policies, e.g. improved Building Standards.

Transport - growth in car ownership and use, tempered to some extent by improvements in vehicle efficiency.

Agriculture - flat trend based on the assumptions that there will be no major changes in livestock numbers or fertiliser use.

LULUCF - emissions follow a cyclical pattern, tied in closely with forest rotation cycles. In recent years the net effect has been significant carbon sequestration, this is expected to change to a situation where emissions and sequestration are matched i.e. no net additions or removal of GHG emissions from around 2030.

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