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Mitigating Against Climate Change in Scotland

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Appendix 8: Transport

Existing measures

Ref

Option

-

Fuel Duty Escalator

-

ACEA Voluntary Agreement to reduce fleet-weighted average new car CO 2 emissions to 140 gCO 2/km by 2008

-

Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty

-

Company car tax system

-

Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation ( RTFO)

-

Safe and Fuel Efficient Driving programme

-

Low Carbon Vehicle Innovation Platform

-

Low Carbon Vehicle Procurement Programme (from April 2008)

-

Emissions reduction policies in Scotland's National Transport Strategy (measures focused on freight

-

European Commission proposed regulatory replacement for the voluntary agreement on new car CO 2 emissions

-

Inclusion of aviation in the EUETS from 2011

Note: these measures are all included in the baseline and so their emissions savings and associated costs do not appear in the analysis for this report.

Future options

A series of tables are presented for future options:

1. Definition of option, state of deployment
2. Data for 2030
3. Data for 2050
4. Factors influencing deployment, potential, etc.

Ref

Option

Technical measure

State of deployment

T1

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

Stop-start technology for new cars

Future new policy

T2

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

Advanced petrol engine technologies

Future new policy

T3

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

Micro hybrid technology (Stop-start technology with regenerative braking)

Future new policy

T4

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

Mild hybrid technology for petrol and diesel cars

Future new policy

T5

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

Full hybrid technology for petrol and diesel cars

Future new policy

T6

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

Plug-in hybrid technology for cars and vans

Future new policy

T7

Encourage shift battery-electric technology

Battery-electric technology for cars, vans, buses & HGVs

Future new policy

T8

Encourage shift hydrogen technology

Hydrogen fuel cell technology for cars

Future new policy

T9

Eco-driving

Training all drivers to drive with fuel efficiency in mind

Extension of current (limited deployment) policy

T10

Encourage uptake of "Smarter Choices" measures

Packages of soft measures to reduce demand for private transport

Extension of current (limited deployment) policy

T11

Freight measures

Package of measures based on improved vehicle technologies, improvements in operational performance and in purchasing

Future new policy

T12

Restrict growth in aviation sector

No increases in the numbers of flights to and from Scotland's airports from 2020 onwards

Future new policy

T13

Hybrid buses

Buses equipped with hybrid-electric technology to reduce emissions

Future new policy

T14

Road pricing with emissions element

Scotland-wide road pricing scheme, with incentive to encourage uptake of low emissions vehicles

Future new policy

Ref

Option

Core data - 2030

Potential

+/-

Key assumptions

Sub-sector

£/t CO 2eq

+/-

Source / Key assumptions

T1

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

1%

+20%

/ -100%

80% of all cars fitted with stop/start technology

Passenger cars

-£190 to -£415

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement)

T2

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

2%

+50%

/-100%

100% of petrol cars fitted with direct injection technology or downsize engine with boost technology

Passenger cars

-£375 to -£586

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement)

T3

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

3%

+20%

/ -100%

80% of all cars fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

-£228 to -£340

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement)

T4

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

6%

+100%

/ -100%

50% of all cars fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

-£333 to -£409

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T5

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

8.5%

+100%

/ -100%

50% of all cars fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

£275 to £312

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T6

Encourage uptake of plug-in hybrid technology

15%

+166%

/-100%

50% of all cars and vans fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

Vans

£445 to £715

+50% / -50%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T7

Encourage shift battery-electric technology

10%

+100%

/-100%

20% of all cars and vans fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

Vans

-£35 to +£144

+50% / -50%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T8

Encourage shift hydrogen technology

0% to 3%

+100%

/-100%

10% of all cars fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

£526 to £943

+100% / -50%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T9

Eco-driving

2%

+100%

/-100%

60% of drivers using eco-driving, achieving 4.5% reduction in CO 2 emissions per vehicle

All road transport modes

£81

+50% / -50%

Extrapolation from Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change"

T10

Encourage uptake of "Smarter Choices" measures

2%

+100%

/-100%

All modes

-£22

+50% / -50%

Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change"

T11

Freight measures

6%

+20%

/ -20%

Light commercial vehicles and Large Goods Vehicles

-£130

+50% / -50%

Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change", Page 74-77

T12

Restrict growth in aviation sector

3%

+20%

/ -20%

Assumes that demand for aviation does not increase beyond 2020 levels

Aviation sector

?

?

Assumption

T13

Hybrid buses

1%

+20%

/-100%

100% of buses equipped with hybrid-electric technology from 2015 onwards

Buses

£37

+200% / -50%

MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T14

Road pricing with emissions element

7%

+100%

/-100%

Assumes that emissions-related road pricing would give an 8% CO 2 benefits (half the amount achieved in London with current Congestion Charging scheme

All road transport modes

£2,710

+100% / -50%

"Feasibility Study of Road Pricing in the UK" (DfT); "Central London Congestion Charging - Fifth Annual Report" (TfL)

Ref

Option

Core data - 2050

Potential

+/-

Key assumptions

Sub-sector

£/t CO 2eq

+/-

Source / Key assumptions

T1

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

1%

+20%

/ -100%

100% of all cars fitted with stop/start technology

Passenger cars

-£211 to -£455

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement)

T2

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

3%

+50%

/-100%

100% of petrol cars fitted with direct injection technology or downsize engine with boost technology

Passenger cars

-£506 to -£682

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement)

T3

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

3%

+20%

/-100%

100% of all cars fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

-£251 to -£357

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement)

T4

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

6%

+100% /-100%

70% of all cars fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

-£365 to -£451

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T5

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

11%

+100% /-100%

70% of all cars fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

£280 to £322

10%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T6

Encourage uptake of plug-in hybrid technology

28%

+166%

/-100%

100% of all cars and vans fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

Vans

£625 to £698

+50% / -50%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T7

Encourage shift battery-electric technology

40%

+100%

/-100%

100% of all cars, 100% of all vans, 50% of all buses and 20% of all HGVs fitted with this technology

All road transport modes

-£39 to +£159

+50% / -50%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T8

Encourage shift hydrogen technology

0% to 13%

+100%

/-100%

50% of all cars fitted with this technology

Passenger cars

£422 to £685

+100% / -50%

King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T9

Eco-driving

3%

+100%

/-100%

90% of drivers using eco-driving, achieving 4.5% reduction in CO 2 emissions per vehicle

All road transport modes

£81

+50% / -50%

Extrapolation from Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change"

T10

Encourage uptake of "Smarter Choices" measures

4%

+100%

/-100%

Assumes that by 2050, emissions benefits are 100% greater than in 2030, due to further rollout

All modes

-£22

+50% / -50%

Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change"

T11

Freight measures

7%

Assumed 20% further improvements over what was achieved in 2050

Light commercial vehicles and Large Goods Vehicles

-£130

+50% / -50%

Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change", Page 74-77

T12

Restrict growth in aviation sector

8%

No increases in the numbers of flights to and from Scotland's airports from 2020 onwards

Aviation sector

?

?

Assumption

T13

Hybrid buses

1%

+20%

/-100%

Buses equipped with hybrid-electric technology to reduce emissions

Buses

£32

+200% / -50%

MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra)

T14

Road pricing with emissions element

6%

+100%

/-100%

Scotland-wide road pricing scheme, with incentive to encourage uptake of low emissions vehicles

All road transport modes

£2,658

+100% / -50%

"Feasibility Study of Road Pricing in the UK" (DfT); "Central London Congestion Charging - Fifth Annual Report" (TfL)

Ref

Option

Influencing factors

State of technology

Significant other impact

Type

Other issues

T1

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

Mature

Regulatory

T2

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

Newly deployed / near market

Regulatory

T3

Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets

Newly deployed

Regulatory

T4

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

Newly deployed

Economic

T5

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

Newly deployed

Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-)

Economic

T6

Encourage uptake of hybrid technology

Near market

Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-)

Economic

T7

Encourage shift battery-electric technology

Near market

Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-)

Economic

T8

Encourage shift hydrogen technology

Pilot plant

Public acceptability /consumer resistance (-)

Economic

T9

Eco-driving

Mature

Public acceptability /consumer resistance (-)

Voluntary

T10

Encourage uptake of "Smarter Choices" measures

Newly deployed

Voluntary

T11

Freight measures

Newly deployed

Voluntary

T12

Restrict growth in aviation sector

N/A

Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-)

Regulatory

T13

Hybrid buses

Newly deployed

Economic

T14

Road pricing with emissions element

N/A

Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-)

Fiscal

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Page updated: Wednesday, November 19, 2008