Ref | Option |
|---|
- | Fuel Duty Escalator |
- | ACEA Voluntary Agreement to reduce fleet-weighted average new car CO 2 emissions to 140 gCO 2/km by 2008 |
- | Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty |
- | Company car tax system |
- | Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation ( RTFO) |
- | Safe and Fuel Efficient Driving programme |
- | Low Carbon Vehicle Innovation Platform |
- | Low Carbon Vehicle Procurement Programme (from April 2008) |
- | Emissions reduction policies in Scotland's National Transport Strategy (measures focused on freight |
- | European Commission proposed regulatory replacement for the voluntary agreement on new car CO 2 emissions |
- | Inclusion of aviation in the EUETS from 2011 |
Note: these measures are all included in the baseline and so their emissions savings and associated costs do not appear in the analysis for this report.
1. Definition of option, state of deployment
2. Data for 2030
3. Data for 2050
4. Factors influencing deployment, potential, etc.
Ref | Option | Technical measure | State of deployment |
|---|
T1 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | Stop-start technology for new cars | Future new policy |
T2 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | Advanced petrol engine technologies | Future new policy |
T3 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | Micro hybrid technology (Stop-start technology with regenerative braking) | Future new policy |
T4 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | Mild hybrid technology for petrol and diesel cars | Future new policy |
T5 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | Full hybrid technology for petrol and diesel cars | Future new policy |
T6 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | Plug-in hybrid technology for cars and vans | Future new policy |
T7 | Encourage shift battery-electric technology | Battery-electric technology for cars, vans, buses & HGVs | Future new policy |
T8 | Encourage shift hydrogen technology | Hydrogen fuel cell technology for cars | Future new policy |
T9 | Eco-driving | Training all drivers to drive with fuel efficiency in mind | Extension of current (limited deployment) policy |
T10 | Encourage uptake of "Smarter Choices" measures | Packages of soft measures to reduce demand for private transport | Extension of current (limited deployment) policy |
T11 | Freight measures | Package of measures based on improved vehicle technologies, improvements in operational performance and in purchasing | Future new policy |
T12 | Restrict growth in aviation sector | No increases in the numbers of flights to and from Scotland's airports from 2020 onwards | Future new policy |
T13 | Hybrid buses | Buses equipped with hybrid-electric technology to reduce emissions | Future new policy |
T14 | Road pricing with emissions element | Scotland-wide road pricing scheme, with incentive to encourage uptake of low emissions vehicles | Future new policy |
Ref | Option | Core data - 2030 |
|---|
Potential | +/- | Key assumptions | Sub-sector | £/t CO 2eq | +/- | Source / Key assumptions |
|---|
T1 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | 1% | +20% / -100% | 80% of all cars fitted with stop/start technology | Passenger cars | -£190 to -£415 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement) |
T2 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | 2% | +50% /-100% | 100% of petrol cars fitted with direct injection technology or downsize engine with boost technology | Passenger cars | -£375 to -£586 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement) |
T3 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | 3% | +20% / -100% | 80% of all cars fitted with this technology | Passenger cars | -£228 to -£340 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement) |
T4 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | 6% | +100% / -100% | 50% of all cars fitted with this technology | Passenger cars | -£333 to -£409 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T5 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | 8.5% | +100% / -100% | 50% of all cars fitted with this technology | Passenger cars | £275 to £312 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T6 | Encourage uptake of plug-in hybrid technology | 15% | +166% /-100% | 50% of all cars and vans fitted with this technology | Passenger cars Vans | £445 to £715 | +50% / -50% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T7 | Encourage shift battery-electric technology | 10% | +100% /-100% | 20% of all cars and vans fitted with this technology | Passenger cars Vans | -£35 to +£144 | +50% / -50% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T8 | Encourage shift hydrogen technology | 0% to 3% | +100% /-100% | 10% of all cars fitted with this technology | Passenger cars | £526 to £943 | +100% / -50% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T9 | Eco-driving | 2% | +100% /-100% | 60% of drivers using eco-driving, achieving 4.5% reduction in CO 2 emissions per vehicle | All road transport modes | £81 | +50% / -50% | Extrapolation from Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change" |
T10 | Encourage uptake of "Smarter Choices" measures | 2% | +100% /-100% | | All modes | -£22 | +50% / -50% | Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change" |
T11 | Freight measures | 6% | +20% / -20% | | Light commercial vehicles and Large Goods Vehicles | -£130 | +50% / -50% | Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change", Page 74-77 |
T12 | Restrict growth in aviation sector | 3% | +20% / -20% | Assumes that demand for aviation does not increase beyond 2020 levels | Aviation sector | ? | ? | Assumption |
T13 | Hybrid buses | 1% | +20% /-100% | 100% of buses equipped with hybrid-electric technology from 2015 onwards | Buses | £37 | +200% / -50% | MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T14 | Road pricing with emissions element | 7% | +100% /-100% | Assumes that emissions-related road pricing would give an 8% CO 2 benefits (half the amount achieved in London with current Congestion Charging scheme | All road transport modes | £2,710 | +100% / -50% | "Feasibility Study of Road Pricing in the UK" (DfT); "Central London Congestion Charging - Fifth Annual Report" (TfL) |
Ref | Option | Core data - 2050 |
|---|
Potential | +/- | Key assumptions | Sub-sector | £/t CO 2eq | +/- | Source / Key assumptions |
|---|
T1 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | 1% | +20% / -100% | 100% of all cars fitted with stop/start technology | Passenger cars | -£211 to -£455 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement) |
T2 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | 3% | +50% /-100% | 100% of petrol cars fitted with direct injection technology or downsize engine with boost technology | Passenger cars | -£506 to -£682 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement) |
T3 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | 3% | +20% /-100% | 100% of all cars fitted with this technology | Passenger cars | -£251 to -£357 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars (cost data and unit emissions abatement) |
T4 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | 6% | +100% /-100% | 70% of all cars fitted with this technology | Passenger cars | -£365 to -£451 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T5 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | 11% | +100% /-100% | 70% of all cars fitted with this technology | Passenger cars | £280 to £322 | 10% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T6 | Encourage uptake of plug-in hybrid technology | 28% | +166% /-100% | 100% of all cars and vans fitted with this technology | Passenger cars Vans | £625 to £698 | +50% / -50% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T7 | Encourage shift battery-electric technology | 40% | +100% /-100% | 100% of all cars, 100% of all vans, 50% of all buses and 20% of all HGVs fitted with this technology | All road transport modes | -£39 to +£159 | +50% / -50% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T8 | Encourage shift hydrogen technology | 0% to 13% | +100% /-100% | 50% of all cars fitted with this technology | Passenger cars | £422 to £685 | +100% / -50% | King Review of Low Carbon Cars; and MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T9 | Eco-driving | 3% | +100% /-100% | 90% of drivers using eco-driving, achieving 4.5% reduction in CO 2 emissions per vehicle | All road transport modes | £81 | +50% / -50% | Extrapolation from Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change" |
T10 | Encourage uptake of "Smarter Choices" measures | 4% | +100% /-100% | Assumes that by 2050, emissions benefits are 100% greater than in 2030, due to further rollout | All modes | -£22 | +50% / -50% | Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change" |
T11 | Freight measures | 7% | | Assumed 20% further improvements over what was achieved in 2050 | Light commercial vehicles and Large Goods Vehicles | -£130 | +50% / -50% | Cf IT "Transport and Climate Change", Page 74-77 |
T12 | Restrict growth in aviation sector | 8% | | No increases in the numbers of flights to and from Scotland's airports from 2020 onwards | Aviation sector | ? | ? | Assumption |
T13 | Hybrid buses | 1% | +20% /-100% | Buses equipped with hybrid-electric technology to reduce emissions | Buses | £32 | +200% / -50% | MARKAL Macro Long-run costs of mitigation targets ( AEA report for Defra) |
T14 | Road pricing with emissions element | 6% | +100% /-100% | Scotland-wide road pricing scheme, with incentive to encourage uptake of low emissions vehicles | All road transport modes | £2,658 | +100% / -50% | "Feasibility Study of Road Pricing in the UK" (DfT); "Central London Congestion Charging - Fifth Annual Report" (TfL) |
Ref | Option | Influencing factors |
|---|
State of technology | Significant other impact | Type | Other issues |
|---|
T1 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | Mature | | Regulatory | |
T2 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | Newly deployed / near market | | Regulatory | |
T3 | Tightened passenger car CO 2 targets | Newly deployed | | Regulatory | |
T4 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | Newly deployed | | Economic | |
T5 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | Newly deployed | Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-) | Economic | |
T6 | Encourage uptake of hybrid technology | Near market | Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-) | Economic | |
T7 | Encourage shift battery-electric technology | Near market | Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-) | Economic | |
T8 | Encourage shift hydrogen technology | Pilot plant | Public acceptability /consumer resistance (-) | Economic | |
T9 | Eco-driving | Mature | Public acceptability /consumer resistance (-) | Voluntary | |
T10 | Encourage uptake of "Smarter Choices" measures | Newly deployed | | Voluntary | |
T11 | Freight measures | Newly deployed | | Voluntary | |
T12 | Restrict growth in aviation sector | N/A | Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-) | Regulatory | |
T13 | Hybrid buses | Newly deployed | | Economic | |
T14 | Road pricing with emissions element | N/A | Public acceptability/consumer resistance (-) | Fiscal | |