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Pandemic Influenza: Surge Capacity and Prioritisation in Health Services

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Appendix 12: Discharge and risk of consequential medical event

Consensus disposition classification and tolerance for rate of consequential medical events - from Kelen et al. 70*

Risk of consequential medical event

Basis

Mean upper limit of tolerance for consequential medical events (interquartile range)

Minimum

Minimum to no anticipated medical events during next 72 hours

3.8% (2-5)

Low

Calculated risk of non-fatal medical event. Transfer to low acuity facility appropriate. Consider early discharge when effects of disaster exceed risks of remaining in hospital

11.7% (8-15)

Moderate

Consequential medical event quite likely without clinical intervention

Discharge to home not advisable

Transfer to facility of moderate capabilities

33.1% (25-50)

High

Patient care cannot be interrupted without virtually assured morbidity or mortality. Highly skilled care required

Transfer to major acute-care facility only

61% (45-80)

Very high

Patient cannot be moved or readily transferred

Unstable for transport

Consider ICU-capable transport only

92.3% (95-100)

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Page updated: Tuesday, October 28, 2008