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CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND: LONGITUDINAL STUDIES, YOUNG PEOPLE'S TRANSITIONS AND THE POLICY CONTEXT

2.1 In the previous chapter we referred to the changes in young people's transitions and significant developments in policy since the inception and initial design of the Scottish School Leavers Survey in the late 1970s. In this chapter we provide an overview of these changes and outline some of the main implications for the design of a longitudinal study of youth transitions. Before doing so, however, we outline the key elements of a longitudinal research design.

The value of a longitudinal research design

2.2 Longitudinal studies are concerned with the behaviour of individuals over time and offer a way to analyse change and dynamic behaviour. The essential feature of longitudinal research (or more precisely prospective longitudinal research) is that the same individuals are contacted at a number of time points. These repeated contacts enable analysis of individuals' transitions including their movement in and out of education, employment, and unemployment and capture the sequential ordering of events and influences in their lives. Another key advantage of the longitudinal approach is that it offers the possibility of untangling cause and effect, including the evaluation of policy interventions as well as the results of strategic behaviours by individuals. As such they offer a way to advance the knowledge base on which policy decisions are made.

2.3 Most surveys, however, for reasons of cost and logistics, are conducted at single points in time. These cross-sectional studies provide information on populations at a specific time point (sometimes referred to as a 'snapshot') and, as such, cannot shed much light on issues related to change. Repeated cross-sectional surveys where different people are surveyed at various time points are possible and these can be used to examine change over time but only at the cohort or aggregate level. They do not provide information on change at the individual level and do not enable an understanding of an individual's transition through different activities and statuses. Moreover, while cross-sectional surveys can collect retrospective data, a critical issue is the accuracy of recall and the extent to which respondents' interpretations of their own past behaviour and attitudes are coloured by subsequent events and outcomes. The latter is a particular concern when trying to collect data on opinion, attitudes and motivations. Cross-sectional surveys are therefore not satisfactory vehicles to measure attitude change and they do not permit analysis of cause and effect.

2.4 Unlike cross-sectional or one-off data collections, longitudinal studies are important for policy analysis not only because they document change over time, but also because they enable the influence of policies and practice to be isolated from confounding influences such as social background and context. Each longitudinal record contains information about the past social and educational background of that individual as well as their current occupational or educational status. Allowance can therefore be made for relevant aspects of background when investigating the impact of policy or practice on outcomes.

2.5 Bynner (1996, p 6) argues for the importance of longitudinal data for studying how some people become socially excluded:

"to understand the process involved in life histories we need to collect data from the same individuals across time and over an extended period of time...Cross-sectional data collected on repeated occasions enable us to monitor the effects of societal change on the prevalence of population characteristics...[but] longitudinal data are essential to measure changes in individuals within the population as...these incorporate the information essential to gain any purchase on causal processes; we need to know about sequences of life experiences and events, and which individuals are affected by environmental changes, while others remain impervious to them".

2.6 Transitions are inherently a longitudinal process and so longitudinal data are necessary to analyse and understand the transitions of individuals over time and answer questions about the impact of policy interventions on young people's outcomes.

Challenges of a longitudinal research design

2.7 While a longitudinal study offers the best approach to an examination of young people's transitions, it does pose several challenges. The potential for attrition or drop-out of participants over the course of a longitudinal study (compared with cross-sectional studies) is perhaps the greatest challenge; attrition not only reduces sample numbers but is likely to result in bias since certain respondents are more likely to drop out than others. It is therefore important that measures are put in place to minimise attrition. Cost is another issue: longitudinal studies are expensive and by their nature require a long-term commitment to funding. Equally, given their nature, there is a considerable time lag from the start of a study until the final data and results become available (although each sweep builds up the longitudinal picture as well as providing a 'snapshot' of the particular time point). The volume and complexity of the data collected over an extended time period means that attention needs to be given to data management and this has implications for costs and staffing. Staffing can be an issue since a longitudinal study requires personnel with a high level of expertise in survey and quantitative research methods and the existence of sufficient funding to maintain a reasonable level of continuity in staffing.

The changing nature of young people's transitions

2.8 Young people's transitions in Scotland have changed significantly since the beginning of the SSLS in the late 1970s. The last two decades of the 20 ^th century saw a transformation in the nature of young people's transitions in the wake of changes in the labour market, in compulsory and post-compulsory education and in higher education (Croxford et al 2006). From a position where the majority of young people left school at the end of the compulsory stage, most now continue at school. In 2006, for example, 76% of the cohort in Scotland stayed on for a fifth year at school, a level that contrasts markedly with a figure of 37% in 1980 (Scottish Office 1992, Scottish Executive 2007b). Post-compulsory education itself has become more diverse, offering a wider range of educational options in schools and in further education. In Scotland, further education has played a central role in providing an alternative post-compulsory route for young people who previously would not have continued in, or returned to, education. Higher education has moved from an elite experience to one that is undertaken by almost a half of young people in Scotland: in 2004-05 the participation rate in higher education ² was 46%; this compares with 19% in 1987-88 (Scottish Funding Council 2005, Tinklin and Raffe 1999).

2.9 Changes in the Scottish labour market have altered the nature of the 'entry' jobs available to young people and have resulted in the increased casualisation of employment for early entrants to the labour market (Elias and McKnight 1998). The concept of the youth labour market itself and an 'ordinary job' has changed with a substantial proportion of entry jobs being associated with a training programme such as Skillseekers or Modern Apprenticeships (Howieson et al 2000).

2.10 A feature of young people's transitions is the increasing polarisation between those who remain in education and gain qualifications and those who leave school as soon as they can, often with few qualifications. These poorly qualified young people run a high risk of marginalisation in the labour market and in society more generally (Chisholm, 1999; Hodgson, 1999; Jones, 2002; Howieson and Iannelli 2004). The concept of young people not in education, employment or training has gained prominence over the last two decades as a key indicator of an unsuccessful post-school transition. It is recognised that the antecedents of this are varied but include young people's earlier experiences of education and previous transitions such as the move from primary to secondary school (Scottish Executive 2006a, HM Inspectorate of Education 2006).

2.11 Overall, young people's transitions are becoming more protracted, more diverse and more complex in a context where pathways in education and in the labour market are becoming more flexible. They increasingly involve a series of 'mini-transitions' which do not always follow a linear path with some young people moving in and out of education, training, employment and unemployment. Young people move through 'intermediate' statuses such as training programmes and new types and levels of education or training, and may experience 'dual' statuses such as various combinations of learning and work. This raises questions about the most appropriate timing and age to survey young people to capture their key transitions.

2.12 Given that both the starting and end points of the transition process are increasingly indeterminate, what is now the appropriate age range for a longitudinal study? The starting point might be defined as the point at which educational pathways start to diverge or branch as young people's subsequent selections and choices may be oriented towards different types of destinations. But it is not necessarily easy to determine this in a flexible education system. Equally, the end point of a longitudinal study of transitions is not obvious as the labour market moves further from a model of stable, permanent employment. Young people's initial labour market destination is no longer an adequate indicator of their long- or even medium- term position in the labour market. Their labour-market careers must be followed for a number of years before stable 'outcomes' of different educational pathways can be observed. This applies at all levels, for example, recent research on graduates' career paths concluded that 'graduate career paths evolve slowly, and some take five years or longer to settle in to their careers - for some it involves further study, for others …. False starts or a rethink of their early career choices' (Purcell and Elias 2004, p 15.).

2.13 It is increasingly accepted that young people's progress and outcomes are shaped by personal characteristics as well as by systemic, institutional and contextual factors (Sweet 2006). It seems that high self-esteem, confidence and self awareness combined with planning and decision making skills and a good understanding of educational and work opportunities are associated with more successful transitions. These factors can be summarised in the concepts of self-efficacy and career-management skills and they also link to current notions of employability. To understand young people's pathways means that a longitudinal study requires data on these 'soft skills', on young people's goals and motivations and on their perceptions of the available educational and labour-market options. This type of data is much more reliable if collected before the relevant choices are made.

2.14 Partly because of the increasing length in the transition-to-work stage, young people's move to independent living has also been changing. Young people stay at home longer and when they move, they do so more often to live with friends or to co-habit than to marry (Bynner et al 2002). Equally, as the move from education to work is prolonged, it increasingly influences, and may be influenced by other transitions to adulthood, including family and household transitions. To understand young people's movement through education, training and employment, it is necessary to take account of the other types of transitions that they experience (Bynner et al 1997, Raffe 2003). Various 'critical incidents' may occur that act to alter the course of their lives (Gallacher et al 2000). This illustrates the dynamic nature of the process and underlines the value of a longitudinal approach to the study of young people's transitions.

2.15 While transitions are increasingly individualised, at least in the sense of offering more scope for differentiated pathways, the influences of gender, social structure and ethnicity remain strong, as do the constraints of local labour markets and opportunities. Social class inequalities in educational participation and attainment, for example, remain higher in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. The Scottish class gap is relatively favourable up to the end of compulsory education but thereafter widens significantly (Raffe et al 2006, Iannelli forthcoming). Social origin continues to influence young people's transitions after they have entered the labour market. The transition from education to work and adult life is a critical phase when inequalities may be challenged or reinforced, so that a longitudinal study needs to be able to monitor inequalities in both the transition process and in transition outcomes.

The policy context

2.16 A number of wide-ranging developments in the schools and lifelong learning policy areas contribute to the policy context for a longitudinal study of young people's transitions. Policy developments in other areas are also relevant, especially since a feature of Executive policy is to emphasise an integrated, cross departmental approach, as evidenced, for example, in its social inclusion policies that encompass a cross-cutting set of initiatives that span a number of ministerial portfolios.

2.17 The policy context might be summarised as one in which the aim is to create more flexible and individualised provision within an 'integrated landscape of learning' that will enable all young people to access a wider range of learning opportunities, to become lifelong learners, to develop their skills and, by doing so, help to raise the skills base in Scotland and contribute to economic success at an individual and societal level. The intention is not only to enable young people to achieve in terms of formal attainment, but also in respect of broader employability skills including the self management skills seen as necessary for effective planning in the future. The various policies also seek to motivate young people to become lifelong learners by making their initial educational experience enjoyable and stimulating.

2.18 These themes underpin, for example, Determined To Succeed (Scottish Executive 2002a), Ambitious Excellent Schools (Scottish Executive 2004a), a Curriculum for Excellence (Scottish Executive 2004b), More Choices, More Chances (Scottish Executive 2006a) and Lifelong Learning Strategy (Scottish Executive 2003 and 2006b).

2.19 Determined to Succeed, for example, is a key element of the Scottish Government's policy to develop a more enterprising culture in Scotland with the aim of contributing to economic growth. Determined to Succeed seeks to develop more enterprising attitudes, skills and behaviour among school children in Scotland through the provision of enterprise activities, work-based vocational learning, career education and through encouraging enterprising approaches to teaching and learning.

2.20 A Curriculum for Excellence sets out for the first time the values, purposes and principles for the curriculum for children and young people from 3 to 18 in Scotland. It defines the purposes of education as being to enable all children and young people to become: successful learners; confident individuals; responsible citizens; and effective contributors to society (Scottish Executive 2004b).

2.21 A group of young people of particular policy concern are those who are not in education, training or employment or who are in danger of falling into this status. The Social Justice Strategy aims to halve the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, employment or training and this target is also one of the six high level indicators to assess the progress of the Executive's lifelong learning strategy (Scottish Executive 2003). The Executive has recently published a wide ranging strategy to reduce the proportion of young people who are not in education, employment or training (Scottish Executive 2006a).

2.22 Among the goals of the Lifelong Learning Strategy are the improvement of the skills base and employability of individuals and the widening of access to further and higher education (Scottish Executive 2003). Easing the transition between further education and higher education is seen as having a central role to play in achieving wider participation in higher education. The Lifelong Learning strategy seeks to make all Scots lifelong learners who are 'able to move easily into and through the learning landscape' (Scottish Executive 2006b). Among the issues identified in the recent consultation document on Lifelong Learning are: the impact of funding and delivery mechanisms on individuals' participation; the influence of information, advice and guidance on individuals' choices; the role that community learning and development can play in engaging the more disenfranchised in learning; and the construction of an integrated landscape of learning where different types of learning are recognised and different paths well signposted for learners and potential learners. The Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework is a central plank of this integrated landscape. The merger of the Funding Councils to create a single body responsible for further education and higher education represents another aspect of this integration.

2.23 A Smart, Successful Scotland (Scottish Executive 2004c), the Scottish Government's strategy for the Enterprise Networks, echoes the themes above: the need to develop enterprising and entrepreneurial attitudes; to encourage a commitment to lifelong learning; and to develop Scotland's skills base, through, for example, the provision of high quality vocational training such as Modern Apprenticeships, and enhancing the skills and learning of those who are already in employment; the latter to include effective career planning support. A Smart, Successful Scotland also aims to close the opportunity gap in economic opportunities and positively promote equal opportunities.

2.24 The policies outlined above provide a basis from which to identify a range of issues that a longitudinal study should cover, for example:

• young people's experiences, attitudes and aspirations during the compulsory stage of secondary schooling and their impact on aspirations and choices at 16 and subsequent outcomes;
• monitoring participation in the growing and diverse range of learning and training pathways and how this varies across different groups of young people;
• the drivers and barriers to participation in post-compulsory education and training;
• measures of self esteem, motivation and employability;
• short, medium and long term employment outcomes and how these outcomes relate to the different education and training paths taken by young people;
• information on progress in later years of those brought into education, training and employment through policies to address social inclusion and widen access, and their longer-term outcomes.

2.25 It is important to distinguish between evaluations of specific government programmes that examine the short-term impact of a particular policy initiative and what a longitudinal study can offer in respect of policy development. A longitudinal study offers a more strategic approach that can provide a system-wide and longer-term perspective on the cumulative impact of a range of policy changes on young people's transitions. It is this bigger picture that a longitudinal study should be designed to assess.

2.26 In summary, the nature of young people's transitions and the policy environment suggest that a longitudinal study should:

• cover all stages of young people's transition process, including transitions through intermediate or dual statuses; and it should allow for 'reverse' transitions from work to education as well as vice versa;
• provide data on the processes of transition as well as the starting points and outcomes;
• provide longitudinal data that tracks individuals through all their transitions, in order to identify individual itineraries and to analyse the determinants of successful transitions;
• include data on 'soft skills' as well as formal attainment;
• include subjective attitudinal data collected before key decisions on transitions are made;
• provide data on multiple outcomes of transitions, including 'soft' outcomes as well as a variety of labour-market outcomes;
• provide data on key family and household transitions;
• include the necessary data (eg gender, social background, ethnicity/nationality) for the measurement of equity issues;
• cover the full range of young people, so that inequalities can be measured against the full cohort;
• cover the different sectors of education and training as a basis for a system-wide perspective;
• provide regular data that are comparable over time, as a basis for measuring trends in transitions and to assess the impact of policy change.

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