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CHAPTER 9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
9.1 Scotland was one of the pioneers in the area of longitudinal studies of youth transitions and the Scottish School Leavers Survey has been the model for studies in other countries, including England. Through the SSLS Scotland has an enviable resource in the time series data stretching back to the mid 1970s. But in the light of the transformation of young people's transitions within a wider context of societal change and a changing government agenda, it is timely to review the options for meeting the needs for longitudinal data on the transitions of young people in Scotland. It is important, nevertheless, to recognise and, where possible, build on this existing resource.
9.2 This options appraisal was commissioned to analyse the requirements of the Scottish Executive and also the wider user community of policy makers and practitioners, academics and researchers for longitudinal data on young people's experiences in secondary school and subsequent transitions to further/higher education, training and employment. The consultation process with the Government and external stakeholders revealed strong support for a longitudinal study, indeed, a view that, more than ever, such a study is required to follow young people's more protracted journeys through an increasingly diverse education and training system situated in a more complex economic and social world.
The case for a longitudinal study
9.3 A longitudinal study is a major long-term investment and a question that was posed to us during the options appraisal was whether some or most of the data needs on young people's transitions could be met by other approaches such as cross-sectional surveys and the use of administrative data. We have concluded that they could not. Although administrative data should be utilised (and it forms an integral part of the options we have presented), it is insufficient on its own to meet stakeholders' needs. While cross-sectional surveys would provide data in respect of certain policy questions, they would not provide the necessary data for others, in particular, for the wider policy questions such as those concerned with social inclusion and disadvantage, widening access and skill development. Moreover, it should be remembered that a longitudinal study also provides cross-sectional data that would, at least in some cases, meet the need to have data available within a shorter time frame.
9.4 The question of a longitudinal study of young people's transitions was one amongst a range of issues discussed in the fact finding part of the OECD Review of Scottish education, due to report in late 2007. During one of the OECD fact finding seminars, a few members of the OECD Review Team asked some questions about the current design of the SSLS and about the value of a survey that would provide a view of the different 'journeys' of young people as they move through the final years of compulsory school and into different destinations.
9.5 As we have noted at various points in this report, the view of the authors is that a longitudinal approach is necessary to gain such a picture of young people's 'journeys' and we think that the options we have developed, in particular Design A, would provide the necessary data.
9.6 In chapter 2 we outlined the nature of young people's transitions, the relevant policy initiatives in education and training and highlighted the key differences between longitudinal and cross-sectional approaches. In chapter 4 we reported on the responses gathered in the consultation process. Taken together, they provide the case for a longitudinal study. We do not repeat all of this here but highlight the following points from these earlier chapters:
- As youth transitions become more complicated, prolonged and differentiated, data are needed to enable understanding of these transitions.
- More contemporaneous data on young people's attitudes, motivations, aspirations and expectations are required to understand their transitions and the interaction between attitudes etc and their movement between statuses.
- A continuous picture of individuals' movement through the system ('learning journeys') is required for policy development, including participation in alternative and cross sectoral routes, late entry, drop-out and re-entry to education and training.
- The impact of reforms in compulsory schooling and the growing curricular flexibility and differentiation on young people's later experiences and outcomes need to be monitored and assessed.
- There is a need for data on young people's wider achievement and 'soft skills' and aspects such as self esteem, self efficacy and resilience.
- It is essential to be able to monitor movement and continuity among young people not in education, training or employment .
- There is a need for a study to cover all young people. This is necessary to monitor the outcomes of different groups of young people, to assess the extent of inequalities and the impact of major initiatives such as the Social Justice Strategy 'Closing the Gap'.
- Policy initiatives need to be assessed as a whole and in parallel with the influence of various socio-economic factors to establish their long term impact and their cumulative effect on different groups.
- Cross - sectional surveys do not provide information on change at the individual level or about an individual's transition process or 'journey'. They are unsuited to the measurement of attitude change and do not permit analysis of cause and effect.
- Administrative data by their very nature do not shed any light on attitudes, motivations and soft skills; the creation of a comprehensive longitudinal administrative database is a complex technical and legal challenge.
Recommendations
9.7 On the basis of the various activities undertaken as part of this options appraisal, we offer the following recommendations:
- The Scottish Executive should continue to fund a longitudinal study and we suggest that it should explore with the ESRC the possibility of some element of co-funding.
- Design A which first surveys young people when they are still in compulsory education best meets the need for longitudinal data on their transitions and is our preferred option.
- Within Design A, the number and timing of contacts within the compulsory stage would need further consideration in the light of available resources and developments in a Curriculum for Excellence and other related initiatives.
- We recommend that there should be at least four further survey sweeps after S4: at ages 16/17, 18/19 with subsequent sweeps possibly at 22/23 and 26/27. The timing of these later two sweeps would be best decided in relation to relevant policy developments nearer the time when these sweeps would be conducted.
- If the Scottish Executive decides to proceed with Design A, it should seriously consider carrying out an interim study to fill the gap in data between that collected by SSLS and the data that will be collected under Design A. The design and methodology of this interim study could follow Design B (first survey young people in the year after compulsory education using a mixed methods approach with a boosted sample).
- New cohorts should be recruited on a 4-yearly basis.
- A longitudinal study should be comprehensive in its coverage: it should aim to include different groups of young people and should cover both publicly-funded and independent schools.
- The potential of administrative data to enhance the survey should be utilised. In this regards, measures to support and take forward the work of the Managing Information Across Partners ( MIAP) project would be extremely helpful.
- To make the most of its investment in a longitudinal study, the Executive should develop a strategy to maximise its profile, disseminate the findings widely and encourage others to use the data. This should include the following elements:
- An active publicity and dissemination strategy that is an integral part of the study and includes elements such as a dedicated study website.
- Work with key stakeholders to develop a data analysis strategy identifying basic analyses and other analyses focused on specific policy and research questions, utilising the longitudinal benefits of the data.
- Consider the provision of staff (internal or external) to respond to requests for data analysis.
- Ensure that the data are publicised to potential users and that measures are in place to make it easy for them to access and analyse it in practice, for example, by requiring the provision of comprehensive documentation.
- The Executive should review the management and governance arrangements for a longitudinal study. A key consideration should be to ensure that arrangements support the active promotion and development of the study and provide continuity and commitment in its management.
- The Executive should ensure a strategic approach to the longitudinal research it commissions, for example, through developing the work of its Longitudinal Research and Analysis Network.
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