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3. INTRODUCTION TO THE PROJECT AND BACKGROUND INFORMATION
3.1 Given that bluetongue virus is circulating in England in autumn 2007, has over-wintered in mainland Northern Europe 2006/2007 and remains widespread, there is a high likelihood that the virus will enter Scotland in the near future. There is significant uncertainty about many aspects of the disease including a full understanding of how both UK livestock and midge populations will respond to BTV and the effectiveness of existing control measures for the disease. Such control measures include vector control, vaccination and movement restrictions combined with surveillance for early detection ( Defra, 2007). Despite these gaps in knowledge appropriate control strategies must be drawn up as soon as possible and their effectiveness considered in order to prepare for the expected incursion of BTV into Scotland.
The Scottish Government recently commissioned research by Advanced Pest Solutions ( APS) Ltd., IAH and the University of Aberdeen to fill the gaps in knowledge about the biology of Scottish midge populations, their distribution, abundance, life histories and vector competence for BTV. This work will be completed in 2009 and will inform response to BTV in the medium to long term. However, events elsewhere indicate that Scotland must be prepared for a BTV outbreak sooner than 2009/10. Our project team therefore included collaboration between APS Ltd. and others with specialist knowledge of bluetongue to provide the best answers available in the immediate future. The decisions taken in the short term to halt, slow down or confine the spread of BTV in Scotland require economic evidence. Since the relevant biological information is not yet available, or at best is emerging, our economic analysis is based on expert knowledge, some assumptions about how BTV will behave in Scotland all integrated through epidemiological modelling.
A multidisciplinary expert panel, including BTV and midge experts, was set up to agree a range of feasible incursion scenarios, patterns of disease spread and control strategies. Our study was primarily desk based applying quantitative methodologies, existing models (where possible), and utilising existing data already held by different members of the project team. We explored the most likely distribution of the disease given Scotland's agricultural system and unique landscape and climate. We engaged with Scottish Government officials and livestock industry analysts to help inform decision making and prioritisation of disease control options should BTV spread to Scotland. Measures to reduce the risk of incursion or the extent of any subsequent spread imply a decision that should ideally balance additional control costs against the damages to be avoided. Social cost-benefit analysis provided a consistent framework for judging the economic efficiency of control options. Its application in this case required the consideration of relevant control options and the description of the economic damages likely to arise under credible outbreak scenarios that follow from disease modelling. The relevant perspective was that of government, which is interested in all relevant welfare effects related to control and outbreak scenarios.
Objective (i): Development of feasible incursion scenarios
To develop a set of bluetongue incursion scenarios for Scotland based on the available knowledge of the disease - including vector activity, geographical and climatic factors, livestock distribution and movements, and patterns of disease spread elsewhere.
Objective (ii): Development of epidemiological scenarios
To develop epidemiological scenarios for the incursion scenarios, taking into account different disease control strategies.
Combined Objectives (iii) & (iv) Development of an economic consequences model with evaluation of control strategies
To develop an economic consequences model for identifying, measuring and valuing direct (and if possible indirect) socio-economic consequences (costs due to disease control and other consequences) of the virus spreading to Scotland. To subsequently use this model to conduct an economic evaluation of strategies available for controlling the disease for the scenarios developed under Objective (i) above.
3.2 Staff employed on the project: See page 2 above
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