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ANNEX 2 (b) Incursion scenarios: meteorological assessment
Summary of the highest risks to Scotland (medium risk)†
Scenario | Sub scenario | Risk period (Scotland) |
|---|
Northward expansion from 2007 foci | Series of foci in England | Late summer/early autumn |
Inadvertent creation of new disease foci near Scottish border | Spread across Scottish Uplands Long distance windborne spread from Northumberland coast to Fife Long distance windborne spread from Cumbria to Galloway across Solway Firth | June to August May to September May to October |
Disease centre in north eastern Northern Ireland | Over the sea | May to November (only if disease centre is established) |
Summary of other risks to Scotland
Scenario | Sub scenario | Level of risk† | Risk period (Scotland) |
|---|
Long distance transport over the sea from mainland Europe | Denmark (no outbreaks in 2008) Denmark (outbreaks in 2008 on west coast) Germany (based on outbreak locations in 2007) Germany (expansion of outbreaks to north west Germany in 2008) Netherlands (outbreaks as in 2007) France/Belgium | Negligible Very low Very low Very low Low Very low | None May to October May to October May to October May to October May to October |
Northward expansion from areas infected in East Anglia in 2007 | Single jump overland Single jump over the sea | Very low Very low | May to October June to October |
Inadvertent creation of disease foci near to Scottish border | Near Southern Uplands then northward over border Series of foci along the Northumberland coast then to Dundee area Local spread in the Carlisle area then on the wind along the Galloway coast | Low Low Low | September to October May to September May to October |
Northern Ireland | Based on 2007 | Negligible | None |
† see OIE (2004) Handbook on import risk analysis for animals and animal products. Volume I: Introduction and qualitative risk analysis. Paris, France: OIE.
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