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Assessing the Economic Impact of Different Bluetongue Virus (BTV) Incursion Scenarios in Scotland: Technical Report

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ANNEX 1 (e) 95 th percentile

Within Incursion Scenario CBA Analysis

Table 1a: Incursion a

Scenario

BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1a

C2a

C3a

C4a

C1a

C2a

C3a

C4a

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

332.81

528.84

455.15

343.62

327.03

448.94

401.82

335.50

NPV

192.05

388.08

314.39

202.86

186.27

308.18

261.06

194.74

BCR

2.36

3.76

3.23

2.44

2.32

3.19

2.85

2.38

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

332.81

456.02

398.90

343.62

327.03

405.44

367.98

335.50

NPV

192.05

315.26

258.14

202.86

186.27

264.68

227.22

194.74

BCR

2.36

3.24

2.83

2.44

2.32

2.88

2.61

2.38

Table 1b: Incursion b

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1b

C2b

C3b

C4b

C1b

C2b

C3b

C4b

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

340.87

550.38

457.17

352.40

331.68

462.56

400.86

400.86

NPV

200.30

409.80

316.59

211.83

191.10

321.98

260.28

260.28

BCR

2.42

3.92

3.25

2.51

2.36

3.29

2.85

2.85

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

340.87

483.19

401.80

352.40

331.68

424.10

368.84

340.40

NPV

200.30

342.62

261.22

211.83

191.10

283.52

228.26

199.83

BCR

2.42

3.44

2.86

2.51

2.36

3.02

2.62

2.42

Table 1c: Incursion c

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1c

C2c

C3c

C4c

C1c

C2c

C3c

C4c

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

329.91

504.94

446.40

350.97

325.92

430.28

392.11

338.98

NPV

189.33

364.36

305.82

210.39

185.34

289.70

251.54

198.40

BCR

2.35

3.59

3.18

2.50

2.32

3.06

2.79

2.41

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

329.91

445.13

394.62

350.97

325.92

397.21

363.41

338.98

NPV

189.33

304.55

254.05

210.39

185.34

256.63

222.84

198.40

BCR

2.35

3.17

2.81

2.50

2.32

2.83

2.59

2.41

Table 1d: Incursion d

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1d

C2d

C3d

C4d

C1d

C2d

C3d

C4d

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits(£m)

345.78

571.50

532.89

439.95

334.46

480.57

448.58

392.79

NPV

205.02

430.74

392.13

299.19

193.70

339.81

307.82

252.03

BCR

2.46

4.06

3.79

3.13

2.38

3.41

3.19

2.79

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

345.78

483.31

436.48

436.48

334.46

427.59

390.73

364.61

NPV

205.02

342.55

295.72

295.72

193.70

286.83

249.97

223.85

BCR

2.46

3.43

3.10

3.10

2.38

3.04

2.78

2.59

Table 1e: Incursion e

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1e

C2e

C3e

C4e

C5e

C1e

C2e

C3e

C4e

C5e

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

345.78

509.51

473.03

435.63

458.92

329.49

436.05

407.27

386.71

399.84

NPV

205.02

368.75

332.27

294.87

318.34

188.73

295.29

266.51

245.95

259.26

BCR

2.46

3.62

3.36

3.09

3.26

2.34

3.10

2.89

2.75

2.84

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

337.44

441.29

403.42

393.58

401.10

329.49

398.53

368.46

363.12

367.51

NPV

196.68

300.53

262.66

252.82

260.52

188.73

257.77

227.70

222.36

226.93

BCR

2.40

3.14

2.87

2.80

2.85

2.34

2.83

2.62

2.58

2.61

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Page updated: Wednesday, October 15, 2008