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Assessing the Economic Impact of Different Bluetongue Virus (BTV) Incursion Scenarios in Scotland: Technical Report

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ANNEX 1 (d) 5 th percentile

Within Incursion Scenario CBA Analysis -

Table 1a: Incursion a

Scenario

C1a

C2a

C3a

C4a

C1a

C2a

C3a

C4a

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

353.37

457.80

437.45

371.90

353.37

417.62

404.39

365.24

NPV

212.61

317.04

296.68

231.14

212.61

276.86

263.63

224.48

BCR

2.51

3.25

3.11

2.64

2.51

2.97

2.87

2.59

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

353.37

421.25

402.58

371.90

353.37

395.63

383.05

365.24

NPV

212.61

280.49

261.82

231.14

212.61

254.87

242.29

224.48

BCR

2.51

2.99

2.86

2.64

2.51

2.81

2.72

2.59

Table 1b: Incursion b

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1b

C2b

C3b

C4b

C1b

C2b

C3b

C4b

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

353.73

408.55

387.38

376.22

353.57

384.83

375.35

375.35

NPV

213.15

267.97

246.80

235.64

212.99

244.25

234.78

234.78

BCR

2.52

2.91

2.76

2.68

2.52

2.74

2.67

2.67

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

353.73

398.47

379.36

376.22

353.57

378.84

370.26

364.23

NPV

213.15

257.89

238.78

235.64

212.99

238.26

229.69

223.65

BCR

2.52

2.83

2.70

2.68

2.52

2.69

2.63

2.59

Table 1c: Incursion c

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1c

C2c

C3c

C4c

C1c

C2c

C3c

C4c

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

353.51

388.84

371.96

379.12

353.44

371.44

362.35

367.13

NPV

212.93

248.27

231.38

238.54

212.86

230.87

221.77

226.55

BCR

2.51

2.77

2.65

2.70

2.51

2.64

2.58

2.61

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

353.51

384.50

368.16

379.12

353.44

369.28

360.44

367.13

NPV

212.93

243.92

227.58

238.54

212.86

228.70

219.87

226.55

BCR

2.51

2.74

2.62

2.70

2.51

2.63

2.56

2.61

Table 1d: Incursion d

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1d

C2d

C3d

C4d

C1d

C2d

C3d

C4d

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits(£m)

353.92

501.86

497.41

470.46

353.68

446.10

440.38

423.30

NPV

213.16

361.10

356.65

329.70

212.92

305.34

299.62

282.54

BCR

2.51

3.57

3.53

3.34

2.51

3.17

3.13

3.01

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

353.92

447.02

433.56

433.56

353.68

412.96

401.69

395.13

NPV

213.16

306.26

292.80

292.80

212.92

272.20

260.93

254.36

BCR

2.51

3.18

3.08

3.08

2.51

2.93

2.85

2.81

Table 1e: Incursion e

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1e

C2e

C3e

C4e

C5e

C1e

C2e

C3e

C4e

C5e

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

353.92

500.21

481.33

466.10

401.60

353.52

440.23

425.96

416.99

380.66

NPV

213.16

359.45

340.57

325.34

261.03

212.76

299.47

285.20

276.23

240.08

BCR

2.51

3.55

3.42

3.31

2.86

2.51

3.13

3.03

2.96

2.71

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

353.63

444.08

425.71

424.05

385.70

353.52

408.97

394.60

393.40

371.71

NPV

212.87

303.32

284.95

283.29

245.12

212.76

268.21

253.84

252.64

231.14

BCR

2.51

3.15

3.02

3.01

2.74

2.51

2.91

2.80

2.79

2.64

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Page updated: Wednesday, October 15, 2008