Assessing the Economic Impact of Different Bluetongue Virus (BTV) Incursion Scenarios in Scotland: Supplementary technical report for an extra response scenario: 80% vaccine uptake across all Scotland

Within Incursion Scenario CBA Analysis

Table 1a: Incursion a (Midge transmission from south in April 2009)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6a	C6a
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	351.33	339.35
NPV	210.40	198.42
BCR	2.49	2.41
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	351.33	339.35
NPV	210.40	198.42
BCR	2.49	2.41

Table 1b: Incursion b (Midge transmission from south in July 2008)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6b	C6b
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.74	140.74
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	352.44	340.43
NPV	211.70	199.69
BCR	2.50	2.42
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.74	140.74
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	352.44	340.43
NPV	211.70	199.69
BCR	2.50	2.42

Table 1c: Incursion c (Midge transmission from south in September 2008)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6c	C6c
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.74	140.74
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	351.36	339.37
NPV	210.61	198.62
BCR	2.50	2.41
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.74	140.74
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	351.36	339.37
NPV	210.61	198.62
BCR	2.50	2.41

Table 1d: Incursion d (Animal import April 2009)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6d	C6d
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	441.14	393.98
NPV	300.21	253.06
BCR	3.13	2.80
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	394.50	365.81
NPV	253.58	224.88
BCR	2.80	2.60

Table 1e: Incursion e (Animal import September 2008)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6e	C6e
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	435.54	386.61
NPV	294.62	245.69
BCR	3.09	2.74
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	393.49	363.02
NPV	252.56	222.10
BCR	2.79	2.58

The Scottish Government