Assessing the Economic Impact of Different Bluetongue Virus (BTV) Incursion Scenarios in Scotland: Supplementary technical report for an extra response scenario: 80% vaccine uptake across all Scotland

Within Incursion Scenario CBA Analysis -

Table 1a: Incursion a (Midge transmission from south in April 2009)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6a	C6a
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	350.26	338.27
NPV	209.33	197.34
BCR	2.49	2.40
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	350.26	338.27
NPV	209.33	197.34
BCR	2.49	2.40

Table 1b: Incursion b (Midge transmission from south in July 2008)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6b	C6b
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.74	140.74
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	343.58	331.60
NPV	202.84	190.85
BCR	2.44	2.36
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.74	140.74
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	343.58	331.60
NPV	202.84	190.85
BCR	2.44	2.36

Table 1c: Incursion c (Midge transmission from south in September 2008)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6c	C6c
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.74	140.74
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	345.95	333.96
NPV	205.20	193.22
BCR	2.46	2.37
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.74	140.74
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	345.95	333.96
NPV	205.20	193.22
BCR	2.46	2.37

Table 1d: Incursion d (Animal import April 2009)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6d	C6d
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	439.25	392.09
NPV	298.32	251.17
BCR	3.12	2.78
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	392.61	363.92
NPV	251.68	222.99
BCR	2.79	2.58

Table 1e: Incursion e (Animal import September 2008)

Scenario	BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5	BTV dies out gradually after year 2
Scenario	C6e	C6e
No license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	434.32	385.20
NPV	293.39	244.27
BCR	3.08	2.73
With license for move-to-slaughter
Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)	140.93	140.93
Sum of discounted benefits (£m)	392.26	361.61
NPV	251.34	220.68
BCR	2.78	2.57

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