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8. Pigs

8.1 Pig Trends

From the June Census 2007 returns it was estimated that there were 465,570 pigs in Scotland, including 46,290 breeding pigs and 408,340 pigs for slaughter (see Table 12). It should be noted that due to the pig breeding cycle there are between 200,000 and 250,000 pigs for slaughter that are not accounted for in the June Census returns (i.e. they are born, reared and slaughtered between the annual census dates). This means that the 46,000 breeding pigs actually produced about 650,000 prime pigs for slaughter in 2006/2007 rather than the 408,000 that may be interpreted from the June Census returns without recognition of the pig breeding cycle.

Table 12 Scottish pig numbers for selected years 1997 - 2007

Source: Final results of the 2007 June Agricultural Census
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/915/0053707.xls

There has been a dramatic decline in the Scottish pig sector since 1998, with total pig numbers falling by 29% between 1997 and 2007. Changes in the breeding herd over the last decade can be seen in Figure 11 and Figure 12 which show the cumulative change in breeding and non-breeding herds since 1997.

Figure 11 Cumulative Changes in Scottish Breeding Pig Herd since 1997

Source: Adapted from: Final results of the 2007 June Agricultural Census

1998 and 1999 saw widespread depression in the UK pig sector, which meant considerable downsizing of the industry as some producers left the industry and some cut back on production. This lead to an 18% reduction in the Scottish pig herd (total pigs and breeding herd) between 1998 and 1999. The dramatic reduction in gilts in pig between 1998 and 1999 was due to this downturn, with gilts being slaughtered for meat because of the slump in prices (exacerbating the price problem by increasing supplies). However despite some respite in 2000, and the movement restrictions resulting from FMD in 2001, the industry has continued to shrink at an average rate of 4.3% per annum since 2002 with the breeding herd declining by an average of 5.9% per annum over the same period. It should be noted that the increase shown in the amount of heavy pigs for slaughter was a result of an initiative by one of the major retailers.

Figure 12 Cumulative Changes in Non-Breeding Pig numbers since 1997

Source: Adapted from: Final results of the 2007 June Agricultural Census

8.2 Distribution of Pigs

In order to show the geographical distribution of pigs NUTSIV and parish level data from the June 2007 census was obtained from Scottish Government Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate. The geospatial distribution of pigs was mapped to reveal the areas where pigs are located in Scotland and any disease outbreak or movement restrictions in pigs would have highest impact. All figures used are from the June Agricultural Census 2007 and the key points can be described as:

• The maps showing the proportion of units containing pigs highlights that there are only a few pig producers in Scotland. Only 4% of holdings in both Helensburgh and Lomond and the North East Moray have pigs (compared to 69% of Shetland holdings having sheep). Although the distribution of units with pigs would appear from this map to be dominated by the Scottish Borders, West Lothian, the North East and Argyllshire there are significant differences between parishes within these NUTSIV regions. As such the NUTSIV maps masks the true nature of the pig industry as they take account of units that contain only one or two pigs on small holdings, crofts and farms and do not distinguish between the intensive pig farmers and those that simply have the odd pig ¹¹.
• A quarter of all units with breeding sows (307 in Scotland) and 28% of units with gilts in pig (171 in Scotland) are located in Aberdeenshire. In comparison, Dumfries and Galloway has 29 units with sows and the Borders 19. This highlights the importance of Aberdeenshire to the pig breeding industry but does not fully reflect its importance since it does not represent the intensity of pig production in the North East compared to other regions.
• A better reflection of the pig industry is given from the pig density map (per km ²) where the intensive pig units in Aberdeenshire, North East Moray and the Lothians start to become visible. In order to highlight the full reliance of the pig industry on the North East of Scotland the proportion of the national herd (and sub-categories) was calculated at NUTSIV and parish level as shown in the maps.
• It is evident that Aberdeenshire dominates the pig industry with 236 units (3.3% of Aberdeenshire holdings) having pigs, which is a quarter of all units containing pigs in Scotland. This represents the majority of Scotland's specialist pig producers.
• Table 13, and the maps produced, reveal the extent of the reliance on Aberdeenshire and North East Moray (and parishes therein) for Scotland's pig production. About two thirds of all Scotland's pigs (including breeding herd) are located in these two regions, with Aberdeenshire containing about 55-57% of the national herd. Interestingly there are even higher proportions of heavier pigs for slaughter in Aberdeenshire than in other categories, representing specialist finishers who may be contracted to certain multiple retailers to produce heavier pigs.
• Few parish level maps have been produced here as when parishes with less than 5 units are excluded in the various categories there are very few parishes left to map. This again highlights how small the Scottish pig sector is, being reliant on a few hundred intensive units, particularly those located in Aberdeenshire.

Table 13 Proportion of Scottish Pigs located in North East Scotland

Source: Adapted from Scottish Government REAS, 2008

8.3 Pig Movements

The following section summarises the movements of all pigs in Scotland from the data extracted from SAMS. Whilst the figures include movements to and from England and Wales it excludes any Northern Ireland movements or any other imports or exports. In order to complete this task all monthly pig movements for the period July 2006 to June 2007, excluding those that ended up at an abattoir, were amalgamated for all parishes. Parish level movements were assigned a destination and origin category following the methodology used by EPIC in the source datasets. Thus every pig movement in Scotland (excluding movements within a parish) was categorised as having an origin, or destination in:

• Mainland Scotland
• Shetland
• Orkney
• Western Isles
• Inner Hebrides (excluding Skye and Raasay)
• GB Cross-border

Once assigned an origin and destination all monthly pig movements were extracted to show how pigs are moving in Scotland and where they have come from. The categorised "live" movement routes included:

AbtoF = Abattoir to Farm

FarmtoFarm = Farm to Farm

FtoLK = Farm to Landless keepers

FtoMt = Farm to Market

LKtoF = Landless keepers to Farm

LKtoLK = Landless keepers to Landless keepers

LKtoMt = Landless keepers to Market

MttoF = Market to Farm

MttoLK = Market to Landless keepers

MttoMt = Market to Market

Showmove = Showground Moves

Tables providing a full breakdown of "live" pig movements for each region are given in Appendix 3b: Pig Movements. For the purpose of this analysis the total inter-parish movements to and from Scottish parishes is summarised here, with consideration also given to the cross-border movements to highlight the potential impacts of any future livestock movement restrictions being implemented.

Table 14 shows that between July 2006 and June 2007 there were 708,662 "live" (i.e. those not ending in slaughter during the month) pig movements onto Scottish parishes with over 98% ending up on the mainland. There were just over 16,000 (2%) movements onto the Inner Hebrides ¹² with only a handful going to the other Scottish islands. The key "live" movements include breeding stock but are dominated by the movement of young pigs from breeding units to finishers. Table 14 also highlights the significance of direct farm to farm movements, which account for 96.3% of all "live" movements onto Scottish parishes, with only 2.4% of all movements onto parishes going through a market (likely to be a collection point) at any stage. This reveals the significant difference between the sheep and cattle industries and the pig industry, with the latter having much fewer movement routes, less reliance on markets and a near total reliance on direct farm to farm "live" movements.

A similar pattern is true of " live" movements off Scottish parishes with 99% of the total 829,843 "live" off-movements originating on the mainland. The key movements also include breeding stock, but again are dominated by the movement of young pigs from breeding units to finishers. 94.65% of movements are directly from farm to farm with 3.83% moving through markets (probably collection points) at some stage.

Table 14 Scottish destinations of "live" pig movements from all sources

Source: EPIC extraction of SAMS 2008

Table 15 Scottish origins of "live" pig movements to all destinations

Source: EPIC extraction of SAMS 2008

Table 16 shows that the Scottish pig herd is practically closed, with only 2,287 "live" movements from England and Wales into Scotland between July 2006 and June 2007.

Table 16 Destinations pig movements from the rest of GB to Scotland

Source: EPIC extraction of SAMS 2008

In contrast, Scottish pig producers are intrinsically linked to England and Wales with regards to "live" off-movements with 123,468 movements from Scotland. This equates to 14.7% of all Scottish "live" off parish movements. Again direct farm to farm movements dominate (83.4%) although a higher proportion (12%) of cross border movements are through markets (probably collection points). This clearly has implications for the pig industry (finishing) should any future cross-border movement restrictions of pigs be implemented.

Table 17 Origins of Scottish pig movements to rest of GB

Source: EPIC extraction of SAMS 2008

8.4 Net Pig Movements off Parishes

In an attempt to highlight the dynamic nature of the Scottish pig industry the following maps show the net outward movement of pigs off of Scottish parishes. Using the SAMS data the net monthly movements of pigs out of each parish have been shown. This includes all movements off the parish, such as to other farms, market, abattoir, live export, etc. but only included live movements onto the parish (i.e. all movements which ended in an abattoir within the parish were removed from the on parish totals). No movements within a parish were included in the analysis except when there was a movement to an abattoir located in the parish. The difference (out minus in) gives the net monthly out movement of pigs per parish.

Although many parishes containing units with monthly pig movements have had to be excluded from the following maps because of disclosure requirements, the maps reiterate the sheer importance of the north east to Scotland's pig industry. As the intensive pig industry is geared for all year production (constant supply) there is no discernible pattern to monthly movements as pigs move from breeders to finishers and from finishers to slaughter. In order to show the finishers, movements to slaughter could be disaggregated, as could farm to farm movements which would similarly show movements onto finishers or off of breeding units (assuming they are in differing parishes) but as so few parishes can be mapped then this exercise has not been undertaken.

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