Scottish Government

7. Sheep

7.1 Sheep Trends

From the June Census 2007 results it was estimated that there were 7,490,700 sheep in Scotland including 2,916,680 breeding ewes and 3,673,790 lambs (see Table 7).

Table 7 Scottish sheep numbers selected years 1997 - 2007

Source: Final results of the 2007 June Agricultural Censushttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/915/0053707.xls

Figure 10 highlights the long term trends in sheep numbers, showing the cumulative percentage changes since 1997. The steady erosion in the number of breeding ewes and lambs since its 1998 peak can be observed. There was a 24.5% fall in the number of breeding ewes and 23.8% fall in lamb numbers between 1998 and 2007. As mentioned above, there was a significant fall in numbers during 2001 ( FMD) with ewe numbers falling by 437,500 (11.8%) and lamb numbers by 569,120 (12.8%) in a single year. There was no real recovery from these losses and there was an average reduction in breeding ewe numbers of 1% per annum between 2002 and 2005. Since 2005 there has been acceleration in the annual reduction in breeding ewe numbers to 3.6% per annum.

Figure 10 Cumulative change in Scottish sheep numbers 1997-2007

Source: Adapted from: Final results of the 2007 June Agricultural Census

In order to show the geographical distribution of sheep and sheep farms parish level data, including NUTSIV level aggregation, from the June 2007 census was obtained from Scottish Government Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate. Using ArcView 8.3 the geospatial distribution of sheep and sheep farms was mapped to highlight areas where sheep farming is important and thus any disease outbreak or movement restrictions in sheep will have highest impact. The following maps detail at both parish level and NUTSIV level the proportion of units that have sheep, the number of sheep per square kilometre, average number of sheep per unit that have sheep (giving an indication of average flock sizes) and the average number of lambs per unit on holdings with lambs. The key points raised form these geospatial mappings are:

• Shetland has the highest proportion of units with sheep (68%) followed by Argyll, and Bute (47%). Argyll and the Islands ( LEC), the Western Isles, Caithness and Sutherland and the Scottish Borders all have around 40% of units with sheep. The central belt and North East regions have the lowest proportions of sheep producers. When examining the incidence of sheep on holdings at parish level it is clear that even within these regions there is wide variance in the persistence of sheep production, with some parishes having very high proportions of holdings with sheep (>70%).
• The maps show that the highest sheep densities (per km ²) occur in the Scottish Borders, Shetland, South Ayrshire and the Western Isles. Perhaps, unsurprisingly (because of geophysical constraints) areas in Lochaber and Ross and Cromarty and Inverness and Nairn contain the lowest sheep densities in Scotland. Once again the parish level maps show considerable differences in sheep stocking densities within regions. For example, in the Scottish Borders there many of the coastal parishes that have very low sheep densities, because the arable farming dominates compared to some areas around Jedburgh which have some of Scotland's most sheep dense parishes.
• On average the largest sheep flocks in Scotland are in the Scottish Borders (1,378 per holding), Helensburgh and Lomond and in Clackmananashire, with the lowest flock sizes found in the Western Isles (80 per holding) which is symptomatic of crofting. The maps allow a generalisation to be made that there is a North - South divide, with larger flocks found on the better quality land (and better climate) in the South and smaller flocks in the North. The parish level maps again reiterate the variance within regions and allow the true pattern of flock sizes to be observed with the larger average flocks being found in 2 bands across Scotland (stretching from the west to east coast in the South of Scotland and from the Lomonds to the Cairngorms in the central Highlands).
• In order to try and show the significant differences in management practices and performance between the regions the average number of lambs per breeding ewe (an approximation of lambing percentage) is also shown. The key pattern that this highlights is that the North West areas of Scotland have the lowest number of lambs per ewe (synonymous with extensive hill sheep productions) whilst the number of lambs per ewe increases the further east and south you travel (as intensive lowland sheep systems and breeds become more dominant).

7.2 Sheep Movements

The following section summarises the movements of all sheep in Scotland between July 2006 and June 2007 from the data extracted from SAMS. Whilst the figures include movements to and from England and Wales it excludes any Northern Ireland movements or any other imports or exports. In order to complete this task all monthly sheep movements for the period July 2006 to June 2007, excluding those that ended up at an abattoir, were amalgamated for all parishes. Parish level movements were assigned a destination and origin category following the methodology used by EPIC in the source datasets. Thus every sheep movement in Scotland (excluding live movements within a parish and slaughter movements) was categorised as having an origin, or destination in:

• Mainland Scotland
• Shetland
• Orkney
• Western Isles
• Inner Hebrides (excluding Skye and Raasay)
• GB Cross-border

Once assigned an origin and destination all monthly sheep movements were extracted to show how sheep are moving in Scotland and where they have come from. The categorised "live" movement routes included:

AbtoF = Abattoir to Farm

AbtoLK = Abattoir to Landless keepers

AbtoMt = Abattoir to Market

AbtoMttoF = Abattoir to Market to Farm

AbtoMttoMt = Abattoir to Market to Market

FarmtoFarm = Farm to Farm

FtoLK = Farm to Landless keepers

FtoMt = Farm to Market

FtoMttoF = Farm to Market to Farm

FtoMttoMt = Farm to Market to Market

LKtoF = Landless keepers to Farm

LKtoMt = Landless keepers to Market

MttoF = Market to Farm

MttoLK = Market to Landless keepers

MttoMt = Market to Market

MttoMttoF = Market to Market to Farm

MttoMttoMt = Market to Market to Market

Showmove = Showground Moves

AbtoMttoLK = Abattoir to Market to Landless keepers

LKtoMttoF = Landless keepers to Market to Farm

LKtoMttoMt = Landless keepers to Market to Market

MttoMttoLK = Market to Market to Landless keepers

LKtoLK = Landless keepers to Landless keepers

FtoMttoLK = Farm to Market to Landless keepers

LKtoMttoLK = Landless keepers to Market to Landless keepers

For the purpose of this analysis the total inter-parish movements to and from Scottish parishes is summarised here, with consideration also given to the cross-border movements to highlight the potential impacts of any future livestock movement restrictions being implemented.

Table 8 shows that between July 2006 and June 2007 there were 2,387,885 "live" (i.e. those not ending in slaughter during the month) sheep movements onto Scottish parishes with over 97% ending up on the mainland ⁷. There were just over 13,000 movements that ended up in the Inner Hebrides ⁸, about 25,000 ending up in Orkney, 26,500 in Shetland and just over 4,000 ending up in the Western Isles (for a breakdown of the movement origin for each region please refer to Appendix 3a: Sheep Movements). Table 8 also highlights the importance of farm to farm movements, which accounted for 52% of all "live" movements onto Scottish parishes. A further 38% of all movements were from farm to farm via a market. However there were regional differences between the movements reported here with a stronger reliance on movements onto Orkney and Shetland parishes through markets, with the opposite in the Western Isles where the direct farm to farm movements has a stronger influence.

Table 8 Scottish destinations of "live" sheep movements from all sources

Source: EPIC extraction of SAMS 2008

Table 9 shows the breakdown of the 3,300,757 live movements off of Scottish parishes between July 2006 and June 2007 ⁹. 92% of these movements originated on the mainland with 3% from Shetland, 1.7% from the Inner Hebrides, 1.7% from Orkney and 1.2% from the Western Isles. As with movements onto parishes farm to farm movements are the most important method of sheep moving off parishes, accounting for 51.5% of all movements, with farm to farm via a market accounting for 40% of movements. Once more there are strong regional differences with much greater reliance on the use of markets for "live" movements off the parishes in the Inner Hebrides, Shetland and Orkney.

Table 10 shows that between July 2006 and June 2007 of the 123,710 "live" movements of sheep from England and Wales to Scotland they practically all ended up on the mainland. About 90% of these movements are directly made from farm to farm with 7% coming via a market and 2% through a landless keeper (trader).

Table 9 Scottish origins of "live" sheep movements to all destinations¹⁰

Source: EPIC extraction of SAMS 2008

Table 10 Destinations sheep movements from the rest of GB to Scotland

Source: EPIC extraction of SAMS 2008

Table 11 highlights the importance of cross border movements when it comes to moving sheep off Scottish Parishes, with 1,036,704 "live" sheep moved from Scotland to England and Wales between July 2006 and June 2007. This reveals the importance of England and Wales to the store lamb and cast ewe trade in Scotland. Whilst overall farm to farm movements dominate (55% of all movements) markets are extremely important for movements from the Scottish islands and dominate the movements from these regions to England and Wales. This is a simple reflection of the store lamb and cast ewe trade's historic reliance on markets in an attempt to guarantee the best price for their stock.

Table 11 Origins of Scottish sheep movements to rest of GB

Source: EPIC extraction of SAMS 2008

7.3 Net Sheep Movements off Parishes

In an attempt to highlight the dynamic nature of the Scottish sheep industry the following maps show the net outward movement of sheep at parish level for the 12 months between July 2006 and June 2007. At the outset of the project it had been anticipated being able to amalgamate movements data ( SAMS) with the June Agricultural Census data to highlight absolute numbers of sheep within a parish for each month within the year. Unfortunately this task did not prove feasible because of compatibility issues between the databases used. However using the SAMS data it has been able to show the net monthly movements out of each parish. This included all movements off the parish, such as to other farms, market, abattoir, live export, etc. but only included live movements onto the parish (i.e. all movements which ended in an abattoir within the parish were removed from the "on" parish totals). No within parish movements were included in the analysis except when there was a movement to an abattoir located in the parish. The difference (out minus in) gave us the net monthly out movement of sheep per parish.

What the series of maps highlight is that the sheep industry is extremely dynamic, with very large autumnal movements of sheep. Some key points that these maps highlight are:

• Early sales of prime lambs, cast ewes, store lambs, breeding ewes and gimmers, particularly from Caithness and Sutherland in August.
• September sales of breeding ewes, gimmers, store lambs and prime lambs across most of the North West and South of Scotland with movement into areas on the East and South coasts to finish store lambs. Very large numbers of lambs and ewes being moved around Scotland.
• Store and prime lamb sales continue into October and the pattern of movements from the North and North-West to the East and South continues with very large numbers of sheep on the move.
• In November sales still occurring and hoggs and ewes being transferred from hill areas to lowland areas for off-wintering. Finished lambs being sold.
• In December and January most key movements are from low ground areas as store lambs are finished and some store and prime lambs come forward from hill areas.
• This continues into February when the lamb trade is drying up. Ewes and hoggs start returning to hill areas from low ground wintering and this continues into March.
• March to May sees relative calmness in terms of sheep movements as much of Scotland is engaged in lambing or post-lambing activities.

7.4 Net Sheep Movements off Parishes to Farms

In an attempt to highlight the importance of sales of store lambs, breeding ewes and gimmers cast ewes in the different regions of Scotland the following maps were produced showing the net outward movement of sheep from parishes onto farms. For these maps the sheep had to originate or have as a final destination another farm (e.g. farm to farm, farm to market to farm, etc). Whilst these maps pick up movements of hoggs and ewes being off wintered as well as replacement breeding ewes and gimmers plus store lamb and cast ewe sales it reiterates the point made about "live" sheep trade in the North, the North West and the Southern Uplands.

The monthly trends shown in the following maps follow similar patterns to the total net monthly out movements. Once again the significant early out-movement of "live sheep ending up on farms" from Caithness and Sutherland is apparent with the rest of the North, West and Southern Uplands following in September and October. It is also clear than many of the sheep are being transferred to farms in Eastern and Southern areas and since off movements to slaughter are not shown here this trend remains in place for most of the year until there is net on-movement (not including births) in many hill areas in March and April as hoggs and off-wintered sheep return.

7.5 Live Cross-border Sheep Movements from Scotland

In order to show the importance of cross-border movements of sheep from Scotland to England and Wales (store trade, cast ewes and breeding stock) the following maps highlight monthly movements from Scottish parishes that end up (within the month) on cross-border farms (through various routes). The maps reveal the importance of "live" movements to England and Wales for farms in Lanarkshire, Dumfries and Galloway and in particular the Scottish Borders. Whilst farmers in other regions are somewhat reliant on these 1 million "live" cross-border movements throughout the year (in particular in the Autumn) this trade is very important for farms in the Scottish Borders and as such any future restrictions on live cross border trade would have significant impact on this region.