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4. Conclusions and future research
This report described general patterns in spatial distribution and seasonality of movement of sheep, cattle and pigs farmed in Scotland. Spatially, sheep, cattle and pig populations are heterogeneously distributed. In certain areas, the high densities overlap, such as relatively high densities of cattle and sheep in the south part of the country, or relatively high densities of sheep, cattle and pigs in the North-East of mainland Scotland. Movements of sheep into and out of Scotland and between the Scottish islands and mainland Scotland exhibit prominent seasonality, with the major annual peak in late summer and autumn. In some regions of Scotland, a secondary spring peak in live sheep movement can be observed. The seasonal pattern of sheep movement for slaughter is different from that in live animal trade in some parts of Scotland. Similar to the latter patterns are seen for the other livestock species. Generally, the volume of sheep movement off Scottish holdings is much higher than the on-movement, which probably reflects the practice of home-bred animal replacement. Each of the four Scottish island archipelagos has a distinct livestock species composition and a distinct livestock movement pattern. The volume of sheep movement off the islands is generally much higher than the on-movement. However, the interactions between the livestock local densities, species compositions and the movement patterns were not addressed in this report and would require further in-depth investigation. The evidence collected also provides a template for further work toward quantifying the risks of livestock infectious disease introduction into and transmission within Scottish livestock populations through animal movements. Topics pending investigation include seasonal variation in infectious disease transmission potential within Scottish livestock populations and the risk of introduction, connectivity among single- and mixed-species livestock holdings in Scotland, detailed demographic profiles of the highly-connected livestock holdings in different regions of Scotland, contribution of livestock dealers to the risks of infectious disease transmission, role of exposure during stays at markets and shows and efficiency of the market-day control measures, risks associated with multiple pick-ups of animals for live trade and for slaughter and with animal stays at the collection centres and lairages. Risks associated with animal gatherings for trade and slaughter could be investigated from both animal health and food safety stand point.
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