« Previous | Contents | Next »
Listen
1. Introduction
This report describes seasonal patterns of livestock movements in Scotland from 2003 to 2007, and livestock spatial distributions in Scotland as available from June 2007 Agriculture Census of Scotland. This report was prepared as a part of the follow-up review of the Scottish response to the FMD 2007 outbreak in England. The report provides a consistent representation of seasonal variations in livestock movements onto and off the four Scottish island archipelagos and the rest of Scotland, and cross-border between Scotland and England and Wales. The year of 2007 was included to demonstrate the effects of the GB-wide livestock movement ban following the FMD 2007 outbreak in England.
The three major livestock species farmed in Scotland - sheep, cattle and pigs - were analysed. Cattle were divided into dairy breeds, beef breeds, and dual and unknown purpose breeds. Pig and beef cattle movements were analysed without sub-division into those within versus those between production pyramids because information allowing such a differentiation was not available. For the purpose of this analysis, Scotland was regionalised into the four island archipelagos of Shetland Isles, Orkney Isles, Western Isles and islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute. The rest of Scotland was defined as the mainland. Movements onto and off Skye were counted within the mainland. Seasonality of livestock movements between the mainland and Scottish islands, and for each island archipelago was investigated. In addition, cross-border movements between Scotland and England and Wales were analysed separately. Movements between Scotland and Northern Ireland and the other livestock imports from and exports to countries outside GB were not the focus of this analysis. Livestock movement types were defined as those from a farm direct to a farm, from a farm to a farm via a market, from a farm to an abattoir, a move to a showground, etc. Numbers of sheep, dairy cattle, beef cattle, and pigs moved monthly under different movement types onto and off each island archipelago and the mainland of Scotland and cross-border during 2003-2007 were graphed.
Data on spatial distributions of the three major livestock species in Scotland were derived from June 2007 Agriculture Census of Scotland and mapped as the live animal densities calculated at a parish level.
1.1 List of tables
Table 1. Complete list of livestock movement types onto and off Scottish holdings and abattoirs reported for sheep, cattle or pigs in 2003-2007
Table 2. Total sheep, pigs and cattle (all breeds) populations and dairy herd in Scotland in 2003-2007
Table 3. Numbers of sheep and sheep batches moved onto Scottish livestock holdings and abattoirs in 2003-2007
Table 4. Numbers of sheep and sheep batches moved off Scottish livestock holdings in 2003-2077
Table 5. Numbers of dairy cattle and dairy cattle batches moved onto Scottish livestock holdings and abattoirs in 2003-2007
Table 6. Numbers of dairy cattle and dairy cattle batches moved off Scottish livestock holdings in 2003-2007
Table 7. Numbers of beef cattle and beef cattle batches moved onto Scottish livestock holdings and abattoirs in 2003-2007
Table 8. Numbers of beef cattle and beef cattle batches moved off Scottish livestock holdings in 2003-2007
Table 9. Numbers of pigs and pig batches moved onto Scottish livestock holdings and abattoirs in 2003-2007
Table 10. Numbers of pigs and pig batches moved off Scottish livestock holdings in 2003-2007
Table 11. Numbers of pigs moved onto Shetland Isles in 2003-2007
Table 12. Numbers of pigs moved off Shetland Isles in 2003-2007
Table 13. Numbers of pigs moved onto Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Table 14. Numbers of pigs moved off Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Table 15. Numbers of pigs moved onto Western Isles in 2003-2007
1.2 List of maps
Map 1. Sheep density in 2007 by parish
Map 2. Total cattle density in 2007 by parish
Map 3. Dairy cattle density in 2007 by parish
Map 4. Beef cattle density in 2007 by parish
Map 5. Pig density in 2007 by parish
1.3 Description and list of charts
1.3.1 Description of charts
Livestock movement was analysed from the standpoint of regionalisation of Scotland into the four island archipelagos and mainland. For each of the three livestock species and each of the four island archipelagos, six charts for the number of animals moved were produced:
1) Numbers of animals moved monthly into the region in 2006 by movement type
2) Numbers of animals moved monthly not to slaughter into the region in 2003-2007
3) Numbers of animals moved monthly to slaughter into the region in 2003-2007
4) Numbers of animals moved monthly off the region in 2006 by movement type
5) Numbers of animals moved monthly not to slaughter off the region in 2003-2007
6) Numbers of animals moved monthly to slaughter off the region in 2003-2007
Charts similar to the 1)-6) above were produced for each species for the numbers of animals moved monthly cross-border in 2006 by movement type, and as monthly summaries for 2003-2007. For sheep only, in addition to the year 2006, the cross-border movements were plotted by movement type for the years 2004 and 2005. Additionally, for each species the numbers of animals moved monthly from Scottish islands to the mainland and from the mainland to the islands to slaughter and not to slaughter in 2006 were graphed. Data tables were added to all the charts. When the total numbers of animals moved into or off a region within the investigated time frame were too few, a chart was replaced with a table or text.
1.3.2 List of charts
Chart 1. Numbers of sheep moved monthly cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2004 by movement type
Chart 2. Numbers of sheep moved monthly cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2005 by movement type
Chart 3. Numbers of sheep moved monthly cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2006 by movement type
Chart 4. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 5. Numbers of sheep moved monthly to slaughter cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 6. Numbers of sheep moved monthly cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2004 by movement type
Chart 7. Numbers of sheep moved monthly cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2005 by movement type
Chart 8. Numbers of sheep moved monthly cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2006 by movement type
Chart 9. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 10. Numbers of sheep moved monthly to slaughter cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 11. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter from Scottish islands to mainland Scotland in 2006
Chart 12. Numbers of sheep moved monthly to slaughter from Scottish islands to mainland Scotland in 2006
Chart 13. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter from mainland Scotland to Scottish islands in 2006
Chart 14. Numbers of sheep moved monthly onto Shetland Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 15. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter onto Shetland Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 16. Numbers of sheep moved monthly off Shetland Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 17. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter off Shetland Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 18. Numbers of sheep moved monthly to slaughter off Shetland Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 19. Numbers of sheep moved monthly onto Orkney Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 20. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter onto Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 21. Numbers of sheep moved monthly off Orkney Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 22. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter off Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 23. Numbers of sheep moved monthly to slaughter off Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 24. Numbers of sheep moved monthly onto Western Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 25. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter onto Western Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 26. Numbers of sheep moved monthly off Western Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 27. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter off Western Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 28. Numbers of sheep moved monthly to slaughter off Western Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 29. Numbers of sheep moved monthly onto islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2006 by movement type
Chart 30. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter onto islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2006 by movement type
Chart 31. Numbers of sheep moved monthly off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2006 by movement type
Chart 32. Numbers of sheep moved monthly not to slaughter off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 33. Numbers of sheep moved monthly to slaughter off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 34. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2006 by movement type
Chart 35. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly not to slaughter cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 36. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly to slaughter cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 37. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2006 by movement type
Chart 38. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly not to slaughter cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 39. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly to slaughter cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 40. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly not to slaughter from Scottish islands to mainland Scotland in 2006
Chart 41. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly to slaughter from Scottish islands to mainland Scotland in 2006
Chart 42. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly not to slaughter from mainland Scotland to Scottish islands in 2006
Chart 43. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly off Shetland Isles in 2003-2007 by movement type
Chart 44. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly onto Orkney Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 45. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly not to slaughter onto Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 46. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly off Orkney Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 47. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly not to slaughter off Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 48. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly to slaughter off Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 49. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly off Western Isles in 2003-2007 by movement type
Chart 50. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly onto islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2006 by movement type
Chart 51. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly not to slaughter onto islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 52. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2006 by movement type
Chart 53. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly not to slaughter off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 54. Numbers of dairy cattle moved monthly to slaughter off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 55. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2006 by movement type
Chart 56. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 57. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly to slaughter cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 58. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2006 by movement type
Chart 59. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 60. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly to slaughter cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 61. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter from Scottish islands to mainland Scotland in 2006
Chart 62. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly to slaughter from Scottish islands to mainland Scotland in 2006
Chart 63. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter from mainland Scotland to Scottish islands in 2006
Chart 64. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter onto Shetland Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 65. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly off Shetland Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 66. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter off Shetland Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 67. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly to slaughter off Shetland Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 68. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly onto Orkney Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 69. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter onto Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 70. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly to slaughter onto Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 71. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly off Orkney Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 72. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter off Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 73. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly to slaughter off Orkney Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 74. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter onto Western Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 75. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly off Western Isles in 2006 by movement type
Chart 76. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter off Western Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 77. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly to slaughter off Western Isles in 2003-2007
Chart 78. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly onto islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2006 by movement type
Chart 79. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter onto islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 80. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2006 by movement type
Chart 81. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly not to slaughter off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 82. Numbers of beef cattle moved monthly to slaughter off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 83. Numbers of pigs moved monthly cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2006 by movement type
Chart 84. Numbers of pigs moved monthly not to slaughter cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 85. Numbers of pigs moved monthly to slaughter cross-border into mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 86. Numbers of pigs moved monthly cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2006 by movement type
Chart 87. Numbers of pigs moved monthly not to slaughter cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 88. Numbers of pigs moved monthly to slaughter cross-border off mainland Scotland in 2003-2007
Chart 89. Numbers of pigs moved monthly not to slaughter from islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute to mainland Scotland in 2006
Chart 90. Numbers of pigs moved monthly to slaughter from islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute to mainland Scotland in 2006
Chart 91. Numbers of pigs moved monthly onto islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2006 by movement type
Chart 92. Numbers of pigs moved monthly not to slaughter onto islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 93. Numbers of pigs moved monthly off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2006 by movement type
Chart 94. Numbers of pigs moved monthly not to slaughter off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
Chart 95. Numbers of pigs moved monthly to slaughter off islands under the jurisdiction of Argyll and Bute in 2003-2007
1.4 Quality statement
GB livestock movement databases constitute a valuable dataset for epidemiological investigations and other purposes. Scottish Animal Movement System ( SAMS), operated by Scottish Government ( SG), collects the records of sheep, pig, goat and farm deer batch movements in Scotland. The Cattle Tracing System ( CTS), operated by British Cattle Movement Service, collects the records of individual cattle movements in GB. However, limitations resulted from the comprehensiveness and quality of movement reporting and the complexity of the data entry and processing have been widely acknowledged. Concerning the reporting comprehensiveness, it has been estimated that about 1% of cattle moves that occurred in 2002-2003 were not recorded in CTS, and that certain cattle movement types are more under-reported than the others, for example, birth of male dairy calves (from National Audit Report: Identifying and Tracking Livestock in England, November 2003, as cited in Roberts, 2005). A higher proportion of complete OFF-ON cattle movement histories reported by animal keepers, rather than inferred by BCMS or RADAR, was observed for beef cattle when compared to dairy animals (Green and Kao, 2007). The reporting compliance varies among cattle keepers. In particular for cattle moves, almost 100% reporting efficiency was observed for market-moves; a little more than 90% for show-moves; and a lower proportion of complete movement records for landless animal keepers versus animal holdings with a known location (Green and Kao, 2007). Associations between the reporting efficiency and stocking density on the holding and the holding's connectivity with other cattle premises were also noted (Green and Kao, 2007). For the SAMS database, the extent and nature of under-reported sheep and pig movements are largely unknown. However, in our previous work we observed that hiring of single tups can be non-reported (Savill et al., 2007). Due to electronic submission procedures, it is reasonable to assume that movements of SAMS species through Scottish livestock markets are well reported.
To assess the comprehensiveness of livestock movement reporting to SAMS, we compared the total numbers of sheep holdings recorded to be moving animals in SAMS annually with the similar estimates made for the FMD 2001 outbreak in GB (Paul Bessell, unpublished data), acknowledging the declining trend in total numbers of livestock farms in Scotland. We observed a good agreement between the estimates of the total numbers of sheep holdings (15,300-15,800 holdings in SAMS annually after markets, showgrounds and movements to abattoirs were excluded). Work comparing the totals of sheep and pigs slaughtered in Scotland derived from SAMS and other sources is on-going. In 2006 there were total 598,816 pigs recorded in SAMS going to Scottish abattoirs either from Scottish holdings or cross-border. According to data collected by the Agriculture Commodities ( AC) branch of the Scottish Government Rural Directorate, there were 685,325 pigs slaughtered in Scotland in that year. Similarly, in 2007 there were 635,555 pigs recorded going to Scottish abattoirs in SAMS and 745,216 reported as slaughtered to the AC branch. For sheep, total 1,417,119 animals were recorded in SAMS going to Scottish abattoirs in 2006 from either Scottish holdings or cross-border. Than there were 1,515,173 sheep reported to the AC branch to be slaughtered in Scotland in that year. Similarly, in 2007 there were 1,510,087 sheep recorded going to Scottish abattoirs in SAMS and 1,497,539 reported to the AC branch to be slaughtered in Scotland.
In this analysis, show-moves were defined as moves to and from registered Scottish showgrounds for sheep and pigs, and the holdings classified as showgrounds for cattle in the CTS database. It was observed that both parts of a show-move are normally reported to SAMS and CTS, i.e., farm-showground and showground-farm. Therefore, only the farm-showground moves were counted for the analysis. However, at least some sheep seasonal shows are held on farms and change their locations from year to year. These moves were counted in the farm-moves which introduced an unknown degree of bias.
Livestock movements by a landless keeper were geo-referenced based on the keeper's CPHID. At present, the actual locations of the origin and destination of animals moved by landless keepers are not always reported to SAMS. As mentioned, a higher proportion of incomplete records in CTS for cattle moved by landless keepers versus by agricultural holdings has been reported (Green and Kao, 2007). Similarly, movements by a known animal dealer were geo-referenced based on the location where the dealer is registered, rather than the actual locations of the animals. The degree of bias introduced by this is unknown. It has been reported as far back as the 1960s that livestock dealers were moving Scottish store stock over long distances, potentially over the entire British Isles (Carlyle, 1975). There is a need for an up-date investigation into the roles of landless keepers and livestock dealers in the total sheep movement and connectivity among sheep holdings in Scotland.
Identification of livestock dealers other than markets, registered showgrounds, abattoirs, registered landless keepers, and registered dealers and collection centres (for example, seasonal showgrounds and dealers registered as farms) has to rely on identifying agricultural holdings with either unusually high connectivity with other holdings, or exceptionally high volume or frequency of animal movements. This problem has been previously reported for CTS (Green and Kao, 2007). Among the Scottish sheep-housing holdings in 2003-2007, a number of holdings registered as farms (based on CPHIDs) demonstrated unusually high degree of connectivity with other premises. As mentioned, Green and Kao (2007) noted that a cattle holding's connectivity degree was associated with variability in completeness of the movements reported to CTS. At present, we are not aware of a data source which would allow testing if sheep or pig holdings' connectivity and completeness of their reporting of animal movements to SAMS are correlated. Neither are we aware of an information source which would allow identification of all livestock dealers, and all animal holders who both farm livestock and operate as animal dealers in Scotland. The Sheep and Goats Identification Inspection Risk Analysis programme, undertaking by SG to insure compliance with European Commission regulations, collects information about ovine and caprine animals on Scottish holdings from a variety of sources. Among the other, this programme investigates changes in the holdings activity. However, the Risk Analysis is not expected to investigate all potential animal dealers in the livestock movement databases, nor are its results available to researchers due to confidential nature of the data.
Concerning the complexity of the GB livestock movement databases processing and the extent of anomalous records, researchers and RADAR have used a number of approaches and procedures to derive and summarise information from CTS as it relates to the dynamics and networking of the GB cattle population. Each processing procedure resulted in a different proportion of the total CTS records being analysed (Wint et al., 2004; Mitchell et al, 2005; Gilbert et al., 2005; Robinson and Christley, 2006; Green and Kao, 2007; Paiba et al., 2007; RADAR, 2007; Robinson and Christley, 2007). For sheep, similar work has been started with SAMS (Kiss et al., 2006). It has been generally concluded that though precise numbers can not be derived in many cases, CTS data allow estimation of the general trends in the GB cattle demographics. In this report, processing of CTS and SAMS records and geo-referencing of the cattle slaughter movements are described in Section 2.2. In short, a cattle batch movement table was constructed using information on all cattle moved in GB during 2003-2007 for which a logical life history could be derived from the CTS records. As a result, approximately 90% of the cattle movement records in CTS in 2003-2007 were included. This processing capture efficiency is sufficiently close to that reported by other studies (Mitchell et al., 2005; Roberts, 2005; Green and Kao, 2007; Robinson and Christley, 2007). From those reported to SAMS, virtually all movement records were eligible for analysis. The few excluded SAMS entries are discussed in Sections 3.3 and 3.7. Therefore, the results provided in this report should be interpreted as representing only general trends in livestock seasonal movements and geographical distribution in Scotland, rather than exact numbers of animals moved for any particular purpose.
« Previous | Contents | Next »