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1. Introduction and background
1.1 The Scottish Government Office of Chief Researcher has funded a series of questions in the 2004-2007 Scottish Social Attitudes surveys ( SSA) on attitudes to government. This report uses this data to consider two key questions:
1.2 The report focuses particularly on questions where there have been significant shifts in public attitudes between 2006 and 2007, including:
- trust in government
- perceptions of system efficacy - including the extent to which government is seen to listen to people's views before taking decisions and whether people think devolution is giving ordinary people more say in how Scotland is run, and
- beliefs about the impact of devolution on Scotland's voice in the UK.
1.3 In addition, the report presents data from new questions included in the 2007 survey exploring confidence in government statistics.
Why measure attitudes to government?
1.4 The current interest in understanding public attitudes to government is linked with widespread concern about public engagement with, and confidence in, political institutions and processes in Scotland, the UK and elsewhere. Putnam's research on declining trust in America, which has parallels in many other established democracies, suggests that:
'By almost every measure, Americans' direct engagement in politics and government has fallen steadily over the last generation, despite the fact that average levels of education - the best predictor of political participation - have risen sharply throughout this period.' (1995)
1.5 Perhaps the most obvious manifestation of declining public engagement with the political system is falling voter turn-out, apparent across many established democracies since the 1990s (see, for example, Wattenberg, 1998). However, accompanying concerns about falling voter turn out is a widespread belief that public confidence in the political system more generally is in decline. In particular, survey evidence suggests that trust in government and political efficacy (that is, the belief that political systems are responsive to the needs and wishes of citizens) have both fallen in recent years across many established democracies (e.g. see Newton, 2006, Bromley and Curtice, 2002).
1.6 In the Scottish context, the desire to improve public trust, political efficacy and attitudes to government in general was a key factor informing the development of procedures for the new devolved institutions in 1999 (see Dewar, 1998). Many of the procedures adopted in Scotland, including the parliamentary petitions process and the extensive use of consultation by the Government, were specifically designed to encourage broader public engagement with decision-making (Scottish Office, 1999). The extent to which devolved government in Scotland has been successful in avoiding or overcoming negative perceptions is thus of particular interest to both politicians and students of devolution.
1.7 Concern about trust in government in general has been mirrored in recent years by concern about public trust in official statistics. In their report on the current state and future development of official statistics in the UK, the Statistics Commission cite evidence from the Eurobarometer survey which put the UK last of all the 27 EU member states in terms of public trust in official statistics. The Commission argue that trust in official statistics is integral to their value, since 'If they are not trusted by users, use of the statistics will be limited or tentative and their value - in terms of their influence on decisions - substantially diminished' (2008, p36). Such concerns about trust informed the UK Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, which created the independent UK Statistics Authority, 2 as well as activities in Scotland including 're-branding' statistical releases to state that they are produced by Scotland's Chief Statistician rather than the Scottish Government.
Government in Scotland in 2007
1.8 In May 2007, the Scottish National Party became the party with the most seats in the Scottish Parliament and formed a minority government in Edinburgh. This was a historic event in Scottish politics for various reasons: it was the first change in governing party since the establishment of the new Scottish Parliament in 1999; it was the first time since devolution that two different parties held the reigns of power in Edinburgh and in London; it was the first time that a nationalist party had taken power in Scotland; and it was the first time since 1959 that the Labour party had failed to take the largest share of the vote in a national election in Scotland.
1.9 Fieldwork for the 2007 Scottish Social Attitudes survey took place between late May and early November 2007. The 2007 findings discussed in this report thus represent the views of the Scottish public on government in Scotland in the early months of the SNP administration and are likely to be of particular interest given these substantial political changes. However, in terms of interpreting the data it is important to bear in mind that, given the fieldwork dates, public attitudes are more likely to be an expression of aspirations for the new government at this point, since insufficient time had elapsed for many of their policies to have had a substantial impact. Moreover, it is also important to note that previous surveys have demonstrated an 'election bounce' in attitudes to government which is not usually maintained in subsequent years. For example, Bromley and Curtice report that the proportion of people who said they trusted government to put the needs of the nation above party interests increased from 22% in 1996 to 33% following the 1997 UK General Election, when Labour took power after 18 years of Conservative rule. However, it had fallen back to 16% by 2000 (Bromley and Curtice, 2002). Thus a key question with respect to the shifts in public attitudes discussed in this report is whether they will be maintained in future years.
The data
1.10 This report is based on data from the Scottish Social Attitudes survey ( SSA). SSA was established in 1999 in the wake of devolution by the Scottish Centre for Social Research and has run annually ever since. It provides robust data on changing social and political attitudes to inform both public policy and academic study. Around 1,500 face-to-face interviews are conducted annually (1,508 in 2007) with a representative probability sample of the Scottish population. Interviews are conducted in respondents' homes, using computer assisted personal interviewing technology. Around 9 in 10 respondents also complete a paper self-completion questionnaire. The survey has achieved a response of between 55% and 65% in each year since 1999 (in 2007, the response was between 55% and 58% 3.). Further technical details about the survey are included in Annex B.
1.11 While the analysis in this report focuses particularly on 2007 data, extensive use is made of earlier years of SSA. It also builds on the findings presented in previous SSA reports on attitudes to government (particularly Bromley and Given, 2006, Curtice, 2007, Given and Ormston, 2007a and b, and Ormston and Sharp, 2007a and b).
Structure of the report
1.12 This report is divided into three main sections. The first presents topline findings on trends in attitudes to government from 1999 to 2007. As discussed, it focuses particularly on those questions in the Scottish Government 'Core module' where there have been substantial shifts between 2006 and 2007. However, the report also briefly summarises data on areas where either there has been little consistent change since 2006 or where the change forms part of a more gradual trend. This includes, for example, attitudes to who is responsible for public services and beliefs about who has most influence over how Scotland is run. Both these topics were covered in detail in previous SSA Core module reports (Ormston and Sharp, 2007a and Given and Ormston, 2007b).
1.13 The second section focuses in more detail on whose views have changed - that is, whether changes in public attitudes to government are evident across the board, or whether the views of some groups in Scotland have changed more than those of others.
1.14 Finally, the report looks at the specific issue of confidence in government statistics. It looks at the reasons people give for being sceptical about government statistics and explores who is more and less likely to express confidence.
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