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IV. Adapting to Climate Change
19. The impact of climate change depends jointly upon the nature of the change itself and reactions to it. Most analysis suggests that - given adoption of appropriate farming practices, new technologies and policies - agriculture in higher latitude countries such as Scotland can adapt to climate change and benefit from new biological and market opportunities. In many cases, farm-level adaptation will arise autonomously as individual farmers continue to make within-year and longer-term decisions with respect to, for example, timing of field operations, choice of cultivars and enterprises, and financial, marketing and risk management arrangements. However, adaptation will also be influenced by other factors such as CAP reform, global production and trade, and technological change - many of which present more immediate pressures than climate change.
20. The following Tables 1-3 summarise possible adaptation responses at the farm-level for both the short and longer-term. The categories are drawn from relevant literature but also feedback from participants at the Peebles seminar. Particular farm-level examples mentioned by practitioners at that event include adopting crop cultivars and livestock breeds with resilience to heat and water stress - including those developed using GM technologies - plus new enterprises such as maize for fodder, or root crops and soft fruit as well as production systems of different intensities and configurations based on sustainability principles.
Table 1
Possible adaptation responses to agricultural climate change influences:
Autonomous, within-season (farm-level) |
|---|
Timing of ploughing/sowing/harvesting crops |
Timing of turning-out/gathering in livestock |
Timing and volume of fertiliser/manure/chemical/irrigation applications |
Duration and intensity of livestock grazing |
Timing and number of silage/hay cuts |
Volume of bought-in livestock feed |
Timing of product marketing |
Use of financial risk management techniques |
Table 2
Possible adaptation responses to agricultural climate change influences :
Autonomous, longer-term (farm-level) |
|---|
Choice of crop cultivar |
Choice of livestock breed |
Investment in irrigation equipment |
Investment in water storage facilities |
Investment in drainage systems |
Investment in livestock housing |
Location of existing enterprises across farm |
Mix of enterprises |
Type of land-use system |
Short Rotation Coppice ( SRC) and Short Rotation Forestry ( SRF) for Energy |
Woodland management for water quality, flood alleviation (downstream), habitat connectivity, ammonia capture, and reduction in fertiliser requirements |
Business structure and use of contracting/co-operation/supply-chain integration |
Diversification of on-farm activities |
Diversification of off-farm investments and employment |
21. Achieving farm-level adaptation may need various forms of on-going public support, as summarised in the following Table 3.
Table 3
Possible adaptation responses to agricultural climate change influences:
Planned, on - going but longer term (institutional level) |
|---|
Information and advisory support for farm-level adaptation measures |
Support for weather/climate and pest/disease awareness and monitoring |
Research and Development into new crop cultivars and livestock breeds |
Co-benefits/systems perspective of agricultural resources to support non-farm adaptation |
22. This may require some adaptation in the way that policies are designed and implemented across different branches of government. In addition, beyond its own interests, agriculture and land use will also have a role to play in helping wider society to adapt to climate change. For example, some farmland will offer opportunities to respond to flood and drought risks through woodland and wetland management for water control (including pursuit of Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition, and the Water Framework Directive's Good Ecological Condition). Equally, appropriate land management to enhance habitat connectivity may alleviate climate change pressure on biodiversity. This will require improved co-ordination across different areas of current land use policy - which again implies some institutional adaptation.
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