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III. Climate Change in Scotland
17. Whilst the existence of climate change is widely accepted, there is still some uncertainty in the pace, pattern and magnitude of this change. This is reflected in the range of official scenarios used for future projections, with "low emission" scenarios generating less dramatic change than "high emission" scenarios. Nevertheless, it is expected that, on average over the course of this century, annual temperatures will rise whilst precipitation will increase in winter but decrease in summer. In addition, the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as storms or droughts may increase, possibly sooner than changes to average conditions.
18. As a result, most areas in Scotland are likely to experience a longer agricultural growing season. Improved crop and grass growth will lead to new enterprises becoming viable as their biological limit extends northwards. Conversely, the viability of some existing enterprises will reduce due to, for example, increased soil moisture deficits or heat stress. Equally, some existing and new weeds, pests and diseases will become more common in warmer and wetter conditions. Within this, there will be regional variation across Scotland - as with current conditions from north to south and west to east.
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