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II. Context
5. In a Forward Strategy for Scottish Agriculture: Next Steps, published in March 2006, it was recognised that there was mounting evidence about the prospect of significant climate change. Noting that the agriculture industry could make a contribution towards mitigating climate change, and that also there were potential business opportunities, it recommended that a stakeholder group should be established to evaluate and monitor agriculture's response to climate change, through mitigation and adaptation.
6. In the 18 months since the ACCSG started its work, the development of global and national scientific research and policy on climate change has been rapid.
7. On 12 December 2007, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon stated that ` The time for equivocation is over. The science is clear. Climate change is happening. The impact is real. The time to act is now.`
8. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) tells us that the impact of climate change - the extinction of species, damage in our cities and high death tolls from severe weather events and a dramatic reduction in the production of food in parts of the world - will be difficult to mitigate, but not impossible.
9. The Stern Review published in October 2006 considered the economics of climate change. The Review states that if the world fails to stabilise emissions in a relatively short space of time, it could lead to problems on a scale similar to those associated with the Great Wars and the economic depression of the first half of the twentieth century. A general message is that early action will cost the World`s economies less in the long run than putting off such action. It suggested that developed economies should reasonably sacrifice just over 1% of current GDP to mitigation activities now, to avoid higher GDP losses in the future. As a rough approximation, this currently equates to around £900 million per year in Scotland.
10. The UK Climate Impacts Programme ( UKCIP) has formulated scenarios of possible future climate change, dependent on predicted future global greenhouse gas emissions.
11. On 29 January 2008 the Scottish Government launched a consultation on its proposed Scottish Climate Change Bill which sets out a target to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050. It points out that the debate has clearly shifted in recent years from whether climate change is happening to what is causing it and what we need to do about it. It suggests that climate change presents major challenges for Scotland`s land using industries, but that a well planned and coordinated adaptation response will minimise the negative impacts and highlight potential opportunities. The consultation focuses on the long-term framework that is required for monitoring and reporting on progress. The Spending Review also committed the Government to reducing emissions in the period to 2011 in line with the pathway towards the longer term target; and preparing a programme of actions across all portfolios to deliver both the 2011 and 2050 targets.
12. The Scottish Climate Change Bill has been brought forward to create mandatory climate change targets to:-
- Drive decisions in government and business;
- Create and enable new means of reducing emissions and adapting to climate change;
- Play our part in global action on climate change; and
- Provide a strong example to other countries showing what can be done.
The intention is to present a strategic overview of policies that will contribute to the 2050 target at the time the Bill is introduced into Parliament in autumn 2008.
13. Work is currently underway to introduce a system to force down emissions from government spend over time, in line with the 80% target. The carbon assessment of policies and projects is a prerequisite for compliance with such mechanisms and the Scottish Government has committed to having in place a carbon assessment tool by 2009-10, providing necessary incentives to seek out lower carbon means of delivery across all Government. However a decision has still to be taken on whether the 80% target will apply to CO 2 emissions alone or to the basket of greenhouse gases ( GHG) covered by the Kyoto Protocol.
14. The Scottish Government is well placed to influence many of the policy areas central to a strong mitigation and adaptation response in Scotland, and is currently developing a Scottish adaptation strategy to identify priority adaptation action required in Scotland and to clarify roles and responsibilities in achieving this action.
15. The Discussion Paper, the Future of Food in Scotland, launched by the Scottish Government in January 2008, set out a vision for food in Scotland where a greener Scotland would result from reducing the environmental impact of food and drink. On-going discussion about "food miles" and promotion of local food will be part of the overall debate.
16. In March 2008, a consultation on Forestry Commission Scotland`s Draft Climate Change Action Plan 2008-2010 was launched. www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/infd-7bqlg8
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