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Modelling findings
191. The Scottish Government has carried out some initial modelling considering:
- The supply of social rented lets (taking account of letting patterns; the impact of new build as currently planned; planned demolitions; and the impact of Right to Buy and discounting transfer lets);
- Demand from homeless households (taking account of the proportion of households assessed as being in priority need who currently receive a let at the end of the process); and
- The level of social lets, minus transfers, which would therefore be required to meet demand from homeless households without increasing the provision of temporary accommodation.
192. A number of these variables are unpredictable and therefore assumptions have been made for the purposes of this modelling exercise at present. These relate to the levels of new build and loss of stock to right to buy; homelessness assessment levels; the rate at which applicants lose contact with the service or achieve another housing outcome outwith the homelessness legislation; and level at which RSL lets are used to rehoused homeless people. These assumptions are for the purpose of establishing a baseline position, not because they are seen as statements of what will actually happen in the future.
193. The primary value of the model is to explore a range of possible projected scenarios rather than to provide a definitive forecast of future events and interpretation of the findings should take this into account. Bearing this in mind, initial findings suggest that a continuation of current trends would lead to a situation whereby a quarter of local authorities would find meeting the 2012 target very challenging.
194. The modelling demonstrates that capacity to meet the target is strongly linked to the level of homelessness presentations and assessments. The initial findings highlighted the dramatic effect that preventing 5% of current homelessness would have on the number of lets required to meet the target. This underlines the importance of activity to prevent homelessness where possible, in terms of capacity to meet 2012 alongside improving outcomes for the households involved.
195. The modelling also strongly indicates the importance of maximising lets from RSLs across all local authorities. Where there is a sufficient private rented sector the modelling also indicates that this can make a contribution to achieving the target.
196. Overall, this modelling indicates that some areas face very significant challenges in achieving the 2012 target and also demonstrates the value of additional affordable housing supply in these areas in the years leading up to 2012. This information could be used to inform housing investment in this timescale.
197. There would be great value in refining the modelling already carried out to take account of emerging information regarding the assumptions currently made. The Scottish Government intends to take this forward in discussion with local authorities.
198. Local outcome agreements and progress reports set out the range of activity which local authorities and their partners are undertaking to reach the 2012 target. As well as responding effectively to existing homelessness it is essential that central and local government and their partners work together to respond to the significant challenges they face in moving forward to 2012.
199. Key to this is maximising the availability of affordable housing for homeless people and others in housing need. The Scottish Government has clearly signalled that an increase in supply is required and there are a number of options for local authorities to pursue, including building their own houses if they have the capacity to borrow prudentially. There is also a need to ensure that the maximum contribution towards tackling homelessness is being realised from the RSL and private rented sectors, and that current barriers to rehousing homeless people in these sectors are identified and addressed if possible.
200. Local authorities also have the option to apply for 'pressured area status' in order to protect stock from future right to buy sales. The modelling demonstrates that, where homelessness levels remain constant and there is little contribution from the private rented sector, limiting right to buy sales could have a small but positive impact on capacity to achieve the 2012 target in those areas where sales are currently relatively high.
201. The modelling also reiterates that prevention of homelessness is extremely important in terms of achieving the 2012 target as well as for social and financial reasons. There is a need for prevention activity to be embedded across local authority departments and within other public agencies and for a greater focus on preventing homelessness wherever possible.
Conclusions There is variety across Scottish local authorities in terms of current progress towards the 2012 target and future of capacity to meet the target. The adequate supply of affordable housing in the right places is central to meeting the target. Central and local government and their partners must work together to maximise the availability of such housing. This should include action to ensure that the RSL and private rented sectors fulfil their potential to prevent and address homelessness and that current barriers to rehousing homeless people in these sectors are addressed if possible. Activity to prevent homelessness should be embedded across local and central government and their partners and can have a significant impact on capacity to meet the 2012 target. Preventative activity should be seen as a primary, rather than a secondary, factor in assessing capacity to meet 2012. Modelling work undertaken by the Scottish Government can inform future housing investment and should be refined to take account of newly emerging evidence in order to track progress to 2012 and inform local responses. This modelling would suggest that several authorities face very significant challenges in terms of providing enough social lets to meet the demands which homeless households will represent in 2012 if current trends continue. These difficulties would be further exacerbated should levels of homelessness rise in these areas. Modelling indicates that a number of areas will have sufficient social lets available to meet demand if RSLs and the private rented sector make an appropriate contribution to rehousing homeless people. However these areas may well face difficulties in matching available stock to demand; or in providing adequate support to homeless households. The actions suggested in the report of the ALACHO/Scottish Government/ COSLA 2012 Homelessness Support Project should be pursued by the Scottish Government, ALACHO, COSLA and other bodies as appropriate. Further engagement with communities should be undertaken to help promote better understanding of the circumstances of homeless households and help dispel prejudice where it occurs. |
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