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Appendix 1 Environmental Baseline

Problems / issue / opportunity

Current National Situation

Designated Areas ( SSSI, SAC, SPA, Ramsar)

In Scotland in 2007 designations covered the following areas of land:

Site Type

Area (thousand hectares)

SSSI

1,037

SAC

963

SPA

628

Ramsar

313

(Source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

SSSI is the main nature conservation designation in the UK. Under the 1981 Wildlife and Countryside Act (as amended by the Nature Conservation Act (Scotland) 2004) sites are identified to protect their flora, fauna, geological or physiographical features.

Status of UKBAP Species

The UK Biodiversity Action Plan (updated in 2007) identified 1,149 species in the UK that require conservation and greater protection. The summary of status of UKBAP species in Scotland shown below predates this update.

Status of UKBAP Species in Scotland: 2005

No of species

Increasing

11

Stable

56

Declining (slowing)

18

Fluctuating (probably declining)

3

Declining (continuing / accelerating)

11

No clear trend

17

Lost (pre UKBAP publication)

3

Unknown

90

(Source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

Status of UKBAP Habitats

The UK Biodiversity Action Plan (updated in 2007) identified 65 habitats in the UK that require conservation and greater protection. The summary of status of UKBAP species in Scotland shown below predates this update.

Status of UKBAP Habitats in Scotland: 2005

No of habitats

Increasing

5

Stable

8

Declining (slowing)

12

Fluctuating (probably declining)

1

Declining (continuing / accelerating)

0

No clear trend

3

Lost (pre UKBAP publication)

0

Unknown

11

(Source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

Habitat change

The term 'semi'-natural' is used to describe vegetation communities that, albeit altered by human activities, sustain Scotland's native plants and animals. Semi-natural habitats which are particularly distinctive in Scotland are rough grassland, heather moorland, blanket mire, lowland mire, broadleaved woodland, mixed woodland, lochs, bracken and scrub.

Plant Diversity

Plant species diversity is one measure of botanical quality that can provide an indication of changes in habitat quality.

Population and Households in Scotland

People and households are large consumers of energy and water, a demand that can put great strains upon the environment. The number of households rose steadily by 12% between 1991 and 2006 reflecting fewer people per household.

These trends will lead to increased demand for housing, not all of which can be accommodated on previously developed land, leading to increased development pressure on undeveloped land and floodplains.

Population Density

The land area of Scotland is 78,000 km2. 2006 population density figures range from 8 person per sq km in Highland region to 3,309 persons per sq km in Glasgow City.

Deprivation

Estimated Assets within inland floodplains

No of properties considered at risk of flooding

No. of properties

Properties within 1/200 fluvial zone

73,000

Properties within 1/200 coastal zone

26,000

Total

99,000

(Source: Impact of Flooding in Scotland. In-house GIS analysis using the SEPA Indicative Flood Map 2007)

Problems / issue / opportunity

Current National Situation

Comparators and Trends

Life expectancy

Life expectancy in Scotland is lower than the UK as a whole. Areas in Glasgow currently have the lowest life expectancy in the UK.

Life expectancy in Scotland and the UK

Scotland

UK

1991-93

2003-05

1991-93

2003-05

Male

71.47

74.24

73.37

76.61

Female

77.17

79.23

78.86

80.92

Source: Office of National Statistics

Coronary heart disease

Coronary Heart Disease ( CHD) is one of the leading causes of death in Scotland. Scotland has one of the highest death rates from CHD in the western world. This has been attributed to high rates of smoking, poor diet and deprivation. The premature death rate for men living in Scotland is almost 50% higher than in the South West of England and around 80% higher for women. (British Heart Foundation 2003)

Deaths from CHD are highest in Scotland and the North of England, lowest in the South of England and intermediate in Wales and Northern Ireland.


Time trend in age standardised coronary heart disease mortality under 75 years of age actual and target figures for Scotland

Physical Activity

Time trends in overall participation in physical activity among men, and the proportion meeting recommendations, by age

Recreation

In 1992, 52% of the adult Scottish population took part in some form of sport or physical recreation at least once a month. Amongst young people, the proportion was considerably higher, with 96% of school aged children participating and 62% of the 16 - 24 age group. Over the last 20 years, overall participation rates have increased significantly, particularly by woman and girls. Demographic changes over the next decade will however lead to a changing pattern of demand.
( NPPG11)

Soil Organic Matter

Most of the cultivated land in Scotland has moderate or high levels (5-10%) of organic matter. Some evidence that levels of organic matter in Scottish soils is declining. Reliable recent data not available.
(Source: Scotland's Soil Resource: Current State and Threats)
Scotland contains 48% of the carbon stocks in soils in the UK down to a depth of 100 cm (Source: Bradley, R.I., Milne, R., Bell J., Lilly, A., Jordan C. and Higgins, A. (2005) A soil carbon and land use database for the United Kingdom. Soil Use and Management, 21, 4, 363-369)

Historical nature of data means it is difficult to develop an up to date picture. Data collection is ongoing.

Derelict/Urban Vacant Land

Study identified 3,908 derelict/urban vacant sites with total area of 10,386 Ha (103.86 sq km).
(Source: Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey 2006)

Contaminated Land

21 sites (132 Ha) were identified as contaminated as defined within Part II of Environmental Protection Act 1990
(Source: Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey 2006)

Broadly speaking the area of contaminated land in Scotland is decreasing. However, data collection is difficult due to a lack of precision in defining 'contaminated'.

Problems / issue / opportunity

Current National Situation

Comparators and Trends

River Water Quality

Year on year reduction in class C and D water across Scotland reported by SEPA. Requirements of Water Framework Directive require waters to achieve "good ecological status"
Note: Future classification of rivers, lochs and coastal waters will make use of the new WFD classification system. This will be carried out during the development of the first RBMP.

River water quality in Scotland: 1999-2006

Length (km)

Classification

1999

2000

2004

2005

2006

Poor

1,078

854

717

724

699

Seriously polluted

91

73

51

52

35

Unclassified

-

12,816

3,807

2,126

2,076

Total length of network

25,382

25,455

25,434

25,429

25,429

(Source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

Compliance with the EC Bathing Water Directive

Compliance with the EC Bathing Water Directive: 1988-2006

1988

1990

1995

2000

2004

2005

2006

Mandatory standard compliance (%)

52

52

83

84

93

95

100

Guideline standard (%)

9

26

22

41

55

57

56

Failure to comply (%)

48

48

17

16

7

5

0

No. of identified bathing waters

23

23

23

58

58

58

61

(Source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

Effluent Compliance with Discharge Consents

Discharge consents authorised by SEPA under the Controlled Activities Regulations contain conditions on both the quality and quantity of effluent permitted. The overall compliance rate rose from 73% in 1996-97 (under the Control of Pollution Act) to 85% in 2005.

Effluent Compliance with Discharge Consents: 1996/97 - 2005

Rainfall and Runoff

Annual Catchment Rainfall and Runoff data are available for 10 representative sites across the UK, 3 in Scotland, for the period 1961 - 1997. There are an additional five observation boreholes. (Source: Hydrological Trends, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology)

While regional patterns of hydrological impacts are difficult to determine, there is a noticeable increase in rainfall totals for Scotland in comparison to deficiencies in regions of England.

Annual Rainfall charts

River Levels

Data is held for 90 river gauging stations. The river level data can be compared with a relative base level for each site (the level exceeded 95% of the time). (Source: SEPA River Level Data)

Data held in the National River Flow Archive for sites throughout UK (Source: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology)

SUDS

Scottish SUDS Database provides details of SUDS installations at sites across Scotland (Source: SNIFFER: SUDS in Scotland - the Scottish SUDS database)

UK database of SUDS sites held at http://www.suds-sites.net/. (Unavailable at 05/09/07)

Diffuse Pollution

Significant diffuse source pollution issues in the Scotland river basin district


Key sector

Rivers

Lochs

Transitional

Coastal

Groundwater

Agriculture

4,025 km
(313)

143 km2
(27)

177 km2
(10)

973 km2
(16)

16,946 km2
(129)

Forestry

652 km
(53)

170 km2
(21)

-

10 km2
(1)

-

Urban Development

1,044 km
(88)

1 km2
(2)

77 km2
(4)

98 km2
(2)

-

Sea and coastal water transport

-

-

129 km2
(7)

1,031 km2
(17)

-

(Source: SEPA Significant water management issues in the Scotland river basin district)
Significant diffuse source pollution issues in the Scottish part of the Solway Tweed river basin district


Key sector

Rivers

Lochs

Transitional

Coastal

Groundwater

Agriculture

529 km
(29)

1 km2
(2)

322 km2
(3)

177 km2
(2)

3,012 km2
(24)

Forestry

368 km
(34)

15 km2
(7)

-

-

-

Urban Development

19 km
(2)

-

-

42 km2
(1)

-

Sea and coastal water transport

-

-

-

42 km2
(1)

-

Electricity, gas and water supply (acidification)

364 km
(34)

8 km2
(6)

-

-

-

Sewage disposal activities

-

1 km2
(1)

-

-

-

(Source: SEPA An interim overview of the significant water management issues in the Solway Tweed river)

Point Source Pollution

Significant point source pollution issues in the Scotland river basin district


Key sector

Rivers

Lochs

Transitional

Coastal

Groundwater

Collection and treatment of sewage

3,015 km
(230

88 km2
(15)

369 km2
(14)

2,417 km2
(34)

-

Aquaculture

145 km
(15)

134 km2
(23)

-

37 km2
(3)

-

Manufacturing

324 km
(32)

14 km2
(1)

190 km2
(8)

1,279 km2
(14)

2,460 km2
(7)

Refuse disposal

147 km
(16)

-

123 km2
(3)

230 km2
(2)

4,510 km2
(14)

Mining and quarrying

363 km
(36)

-

-

-

6,428 km2
(14)

(Source: SEPA Significant water management issues in the Scotland river basin district)
Significant point source pollution issues in the Scottish part of the Solway Tweed river basin district


Key sector

Rivers

Lochs

Transitional

Coastal

Groundwater

Sewage disposal activities

317 km
(17)

8 km2
(2)

325 km2
(5)

177 km2
(2)

-

Aquaculture

-

7 km2
(1)

-

-

-

Manufacturing

78 km
(2)

-

306 km2
(1)

42 km2
(1)

-

Electricity generation

-

-

306 km2
(1)

-

-

(Source: SEPA An interim overview of the significant water management issues in the Solway Tweed river)

Abstraction and flow regulation

Significant water resource issues in the Scotland river basin district


Key sector

Rivers

Lochs

Transitional

Coastal

Groundwater

Electricity generation

1,451 km
(130)

279 km2
(45)

48 km2
(2)**

-

-

Water supply

1,112 km
(89)

192 km2
(42)

-

-

-

Agricultural irrigation

833 km
(116)*

2 km2
(1)

-

-

2,068 km2
(17)

* Data from new licenses provide more up-to-date information than Water Framework Directive characterisation data.
** This is cooling water abstraction at coastal power stations which affects transitional waters.
(Source: SEPA Significant water management issues in the Scotland river basin district)
Significant water resource issues in the Scottish part of the Solway Tweed river basin district


Key sector

Rivers

Lochs

Transitional

Coastal

Groundwater

Electricity generation

37 km
(3)

11 km2
(3)

-

-

-

(Source: SEPA An interim overview of the significant water management issues in the Solway Tweed river)

Morphology

Significant morphology issues in the Scotland river basin district


Key sector

Rivers

Lochs

Transitional

Coastal

Groundwater

Historical engineering

2,182 km
(185)

49 km2
(17)

123 km2
(7)

404 km2
(5)

-

Urban development

644 km
(60)

-

0.2 km2
(1)

-

-

Agriculture

1,851 km
(162)

1 km2
(1)

-

-

-

Electricity generation

904 km
(68)

298 km2
(53)

-

-

-

Land claim

-

-

204 km2
(12)

229 km2
(5)

-

(Source: SEPA Significant water management issues in the Scotland river basin district)
Significant morphology issues in the Scottish part of the Solway Tweed river basin district


Key sector

Rivers

Lochs

Transitional

Coastal

Groundwater

Agriculture and forestry

317 km
(23)

-

-

-

-

Forestry

324 km
(29)

1 km2
(1)

-

-

-

Flood defence

63 km
(3)

-

307 km2
(1)

-

-

Historical engineering activity

116 km
(8)

4 km2
(2)

-

-

-

(Source: SEPA An interim overview of the significant water management issues in the Solway Tweed river)

Problems / issue / opportunity

Current National Situation

Comparators and Trends

PM10 Concentration

PM10 concentrations are measured at six automatic sites in Scotland: Edinburgh Centre (from 1992-2004)(4), Edinburgh St. Leonards (from 2005), Glasgow Centre (from 1996), Glasgow Kerbside (from 1997), Aberdeen (from 1999) and Grangemouth (from 2001). Stage 1: the AQS annual mean objective of 40µg/m3 has been met at all measured sites since 1992. The daily objective of 50µg/m3, not to be exceeded more than 35 times per year has been achieved at all sites except Glasgow Kerbside since 1992. Glasgow Kerbsite met the daily objective in 2004 and 2005, but exceeded it in 1997 - 1999, 2001, and 2003.
Stage 2: the AQS annual mean objective of 18µg/m3 was met by the Edinburgh St. Leonards, Grangemouth and Inverness sites in 2005. The daily objective of 50µg/m3, not to be exceeded more than 7 times per year, was achieved at all sites except Glasgow Kerbside in 2005.
(Source: Scottish Environment Statistics Online)

PM10 concentrations falling in UK over period 1970 - 2005

Sulphur Dioxide

There are currently four automatic monitoring stations in Scotland measuring sulphur dioxide concentrations. In 2006 all four sites passed the AQS objectives. Between 1994 and 2003 the Edinburgh site has shown a decline in winter mean sulphur dioxide concentrations from 26µg/m3 to 10µg/m3. The Aberdeen and Glasgow sites have shown a downward trend in the winter mean concentrations between 2002 and 2004, although all four sites increased slightly in 2005. (Source: Scottish Environment Statistics Online)

Sulphur Dioxide charts

Nitrogen Dioxide

Hourly average concentrations of nitrogen oxides are currently monitored at sites in Aberdeen, Dumfries, Edinburgh, Grangemouth, Inverness and 3 sites in Glasgow as part of the Automatic Urban Monitoring Network. The Glasgow City Chambers and Glasgow Kerbsite sites have recorded annual mean nitrogen dioxide concentrations exceeding the AQS objective of 40µg/m3 since they began recording in 1987 and 1998 respectively. Similarly, the Edinburgh Centre site only recorded concentrations exceeding the AQS objective while it was operating (between 1992 and 2003)(4). However, 2005 figures for the hourly concentrations of nitrogen dioxide for all sites were within the AQS objectives. (Source: Scottish Environmental Statistics Online)

Nitrogen Dioxide charts

Problems / issue / opportunity

Current National Situation

Comparators and Trends

Annual Precipitation

Global warming is expected to have an effect on all weather patterns and changes in the amount of rainfall are predicted. The UK Climate Impacts Programme climate scenarios indicate that rainfall patterns in Scotland will change to wetter winters and drier summers.

Annual Precipitation Scotland 1914-2006

1910s

1920s

1930s

1940s

1950s

Ave. annual precipitation (mm)

1,338

1,449

1,375

1,402

1,397

% of 1961-1990 baseline

100.2

104.6

99.2

101.2

100.9

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

Ave. annual precipitation (mm)

1,323

1,315

1,462

1,524

1,525

% of 1961-1990 baseline

95.5

94.9

105.6

110.0

110.1

(Source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

Annual precipitation chart

Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The net emissions of a basket of six greenhouse gases in Scotland fell by 16.7% between 1990 and 2004.

GHG Emissions in Scotland 1990-2004


'Basket' of GHGs
Mt carbon equivalent

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

13.6

13.2

13.6

12.4

12.4

11.7

Methane (CH4)

2.2

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.4

1.4

Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

Hydrofluorocarbons ( HFCs)

0.00

0.04

0.14

0.18

0.19

0.20

Pefluorocarbons ( PFCs)

0.03

0.02

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.02

Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6)

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

Net Scottish Emissions

17.6

16.9

17.0

15.5

15.5

14.7

Net UK Emissions

212.2

194.7

128.8

179.1

180.5

180.5

(Source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

GHG emissions per capita

GHG emissions per capita England, Scotland, UK

England

Scotland

UK

1995 Emission

Mt C equiv

168.4

17.5

209.9

1995 Percentage

%

80.2

8.3

100

Per capita

t C equiv

3.32

3.42

3.46

2004 Emission

Mt C equiv

139.8

14.6

178.9

2004 Percentage

%

78.1

8.2

100

Per capita

t C equiv

2.75

2.85

2.95

Change 1995/2004

%

-17

-16.5

-14.7

(source: Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland:1990 - 2004. Netcen 2006) per capita emissions calculated by total / population and do not account for e.g. export of electricity

Annual mean temperature

There are wide-ranging implications for Scotland due to climate change including flood risk, water resources, agriculture, tourism and health.

Annual mean temperature in Scotland 1914-2000

1910s

1920s

1930s

1940s

1950s

Difference from 1961-1990 baseline ( 0C)

-0.32

-0.07

0.26

0.24

0.1

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

Difference from 1961-1990 baseline ( 0C)

-0.08

0.05

0.07

0.41

0.87

(source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

Problems / issue / opportunity

Current National Situation

Comparators and Trends

Extent of floodplain

Relative extents of floodplains within mainland Scotland (km2)

Mainland Scotland land area

78,791

Prime agricultural land

6,259

Inland floodplain

2,950

Coastal land below 5m OD

966

Less area of combined inland/coastal flood risk

231

Combined inland floodplain and coastal areas

3,685

(Source: Foresight future flooding Scotland. Office of Science and Technology)
* does not take account of existing flood defences

Material assets at risk of flooding

Assets within inland floodplains and coastal areas

No. of residential properties within inland floodplain

71,402

No. of residential properties in coastal areas below 5m OD

86,793

No. of commercial properties within inland floodplain

5,789

No. of commercial properties in coastal areas below 5m OD

7,037

Total

171,021

(Source: Foresight future flooding Scotland. Office of Science and Technology)
* does not take account of existing flood defences
These figures have been updated to some extent in the Scottish Government's report Impact of Flooding in Scotland - In-house GIS Analysis using the SEPA Indicative Flood Map 2007.
No of properties considered at risk of flooding

No. of properties

Properties within 1/200 fluvial zone

73,000

Properties within 1/200 coastal zone

26,000

Total

99,000

Predicted inland flood risk in Scotland: residential and non-residential units

(Average Annual Damages - £ million)

SoP

2003

2020s

2050s

2080s

None

185.3

235.3

311.2

398.4

5

179.9

228.4

302.2

386.7

10

134.1

170.4

225.4

288.4

25

69.1

87.8

116.1

148.6

50

31.5

40

52.9

67.7

100

8.1

10.2

13.5

17.3

200

3.7

4.6

6.1

7.8

SoP - standard of protection (return period in years)
Proportion of floodplain inundated: 5-yr (0.2), 10-yr (0.35), 25-yr (0.85),100 (0.93), 200 (1.00)
(Source: Foresight future flooding Scotland. Office of Science and Technology)

Levels of protection afforded by existing Flood Prevention Schemes

Properties currently protected by a flood prevention scheme is 4,850 although of these 1,570 are protected to a level less than 1 in 100.
(Source: Scottish Flood Defense Asset Database - Final Report. 2007)

The number of properties protected by flood prevention schemes in Scotland has followed a trend of gradual increase until the mid to late 1990's at which point several schemes have significantly increased the total number of properties protected.

Growth of road transport

Road transport in Scotland is forecast to grow by 27% by 2021 (Source: Scottish Executive - Meeting the Needs)

Growth of road transport chart

Waste and Recycling

Million tonnes

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

Biodegradable Municipal Waste

1.9

1.89

1.79

1.72

1.54

Total waste to landfill

11.14

8.22

7.88

7.81

7.32

(Source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

Waste and Recycling

Accessibility of public Transport

In 1999/2000, over half of all households (54%) were said to be up to 3 minutes walk away from the nearest bus stop, and just under a third of households (31%) were 4-6 minutes walk away from a bus stop.
(Scottish Executive: Statistical Bulletin Transport Series 2001)

Problems / issue / opportunity

Current National Situation

Comparators and Trends

No of Conservation Areas

628 conservation areas in Scotland (Historic Scotland Website)

No of Scheduled Monuments

Approximately 8000 scheduled monuments in Scotland

( HEACS: Report and recommendations on whether there is a need to review heritage protection legislation in
Scotland 2006)

No data on trends, but Increasing as more become scheduled

No of listed buildings

47,750 listed buildings in Scotland. 8 per cent Category A, 56 per cent in Category B and the remainder in Category C(S).
(Communication from Historic Scotland, 2007)

Currently about 500,000 individual buildings are listed in England. 2% Grade I, about 4% Grade II*, and 94% Grade II (94%)
(Council for British Archaeology: Archaeology and buildings in England)

No of designated landscapes

386 Designated Landscapes
(Historic Scotland: An Inventory of Gardens and Designed Landscapes in Scotland, 2007)

No of World Heritage sites

4 World Heritage sites in Scotland as of 2007:

  1. St Kilda
  2. Edinburgh Old and New Towns
  3. New Lanark
  4. The Heart of Neolithic Orkney

1 Proposed World Heritage site in Scotland as of 2007:

  1. Antonine Wall

(Historic Scotland Website)

Problems / issue / opportunity

Current National Situation

Comparators and Trends

Agricultural Land Use

Agricultural Land Use Scotland: 1982-2006

Thousand hectares

1982

1990

1995

2000

2005

2006

Rough grazing

4,533

4,286

4,159

3,983

3,941

4,036

Grass

1,104

1,130

1,159

1,187

1,235

1,244

Crop, fallow and set-aside

641

644

643

652

614

600

Woodland and other

114

153

213

262

319

330

Total land

6,392

6,213

6,174

6,083

6,108

6,210

Set-aside land

-

-

81

78

69

68

(Source: Key Scottish Environmental Statistics 2007)

Agricultural Land Use chart

Agricultural Land Use UK: 1998-2005

Thousand hectares

1998

2003

2004

2005

Rough grazing

5,848

5,565

5,563

5,590

Grass

6,665

6,884

6,886

6,904

Crop & Bare fallow

5,005

4,507

4,622

4,583

Woodland and Forest

2,758

2,807

2,816

2,825

Other Agric

285

276

356

289

Set-aside land

313

681

560

559

(Source: DEFRA Environmental Statistics)

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Page updated: Wednesday, February 13, 2008