Business as usual | Electricity: Continued use of fossil fuels for a significant share of electricity supply. Need to replace existing fossil power stations to: a) Replace old assets b) Meet rising demand Gas: Continued use of gas as the main heating fuel. Oil: Continued use, blending with biofuels. Energy consumption will continue to rise although technological advances may mitigate this to a certain extent. Increased consumption will drive supply and increase emissions. Existing fossil fuel fired power stations will need to be replaced with time. Energy consumption increases until price rises prompt efficiency measures. Car use increases until fuel price rises limit mobility. Potential shortage of supply if energy generating stations and infrastructure not upgraded / replaced. Cheapest options (including coal firing) rather than best environmental solutions will prevail. Impacts on reliability of systems of adaptation is not considered. | Electricity: Coal is mainly imported, with Scottish production mainly open cast - not in short supply at global level. Gas: North Sea gas supplies are high relative to Scottish demand, but are modest relative to UK demand. Oil: N Sea oil supplies are high relative to Scottish demand, but are modest relative to UK demand. Fossil fuel consumption will continue to increase. Shortage of fuel supplies. Fossil fuels will become more scarce and expensive. We will continue to be dependent on volatile nations for our fuel needs. Increase in prices Goods will become more expensive as fossil fuels become more costly to extract. Prices passed onto customer / Increased inflation. | Electricity: CO2 emissions continue from power generation and gas use. SO2 and NOx will reduce under Business As Usual to meet the Large Combustion Plant Directive targets. Gas: Emissions from extraction and use for heating continue. Oil: Emissions from extraction and use for transport continue. If existing technologies are retained, unit emissions could improve though these may be offset by increased production. Emissions from petrochemical refineries will continue to compromise local air quality. "Conventional" energy supply sources retained, emissions and waste only reduce slowly if at all Wastes will continue to be produced in large volumes (e.g. ash). Emissions from fossil fuel burning will continue. | Electricity: Minimal changes: - Land for new/replacement fossil power stations.
- Continued/increased open cast coal.
Gas: No identified impact. Oil: Continued exploration, move to Atlantic Ocean sites. Similar use of space. Climate change will eventually impact on physical space and drive land use change. Habitats could be lost and material assets could be compromised. Land use changes occur due to wider effects of climate change. Most are detrimental due to the accelerated rate of change associated with changes to temperature, precipitation etc. |
Emission Reduction Measures Policy/ Behavioural | Electricity: Need planning and investment systems in place, Renewables Obligation, credits for Carbon Capture & Storage etc. Gas and oil: Need to find alternative fuels/ markets. (e.g. switch to biofuels, electric vehicles) New business plan for sector. Feed-in systems and tariffs required for renewable sources where surplus energy produced at domestic or community levels can feed into the national grid system. Renewable producer subsidies to encourage development in the sector. Statutory agreement of sectoral contributions to overall targets is required to focus action. The cost of carbon should be realistically integrated into energy costs and thereby incentivise use of renewables. Strengthening the Renewables Obligation would further drive the sector. Funding of research and development for new energy streams would speed up implementation. Strengthening Pollution Prevention and Control ( PPC) regulations to place stricter requirements on energy efficiency. Energy consumption reduces greatly by reducing demand and more efficient energy use. Required behavioural changes have implications for the organisation and operation of society, business. Community solutions to energy, emissions and other consequent issues are prevalent. Energy efficiency measures will become more common place. Improved use of most efficient vehicles and transport methods. | Electricity: Statutory sectoral contributions to emissions reductions imply a general reduction in raw material use. Materials should be sourced using procurement systems that place high value on carbon emission reductions and carbon accounting. There may be a need for development of new procurement systems, with robust means of assessment in terms of comparative carbon impacts. Legislation could be introduced to place an imperative on energy producers to assess the GHG impact of their procurement systems and suppliers. New procurement systems could be subject to Life Cycle Assessment ( LCA)/ Strategic Environmental Assessment ( SEA). Microgeneration systems should be subject to LCA, with focus on carbon payback period Greater awareness leads to more efficient use of raw materials meaning fewer emissions through reduced waste, transport etc. More sustainable resources investigated with substitution of less sustainable options Increase recycled materials use in development of new infrastructure and fitting of energy efficiency products. Need to improve understanding of long term impacts of consumption. | Electricity: The existing PPC regime can be utilised to prevent avoidable pollution, and protect the air, water and soil environments. Waste management legislation should seek to avoid generation of unnecessary waste streams or to divert the stream appropriately. This could be particularly important for biomass energy generation which has the potential to generate large quantities of biodegradable waste. Carbon reduction implies waste reduction, and reduction of embodied energy within waste streams. Improved emissions performance through reduced per capita consumption. Waste from replacement of old goods/cars etc. | Electricity: Increased land use for wind farms, increased land use for biomass. Use of geological storage for CO2, pipelines for CO2 Gas, Oil: Some redundant rigs, hazardous waste disposal. The planning system should steer the development of renewable capacity. There is potential for the planning regime to fast-track large scale renewables projects. Locational guidance is already available for renewable developments though more detailed guidance is needed for biomass, particularly in light of the potential air quality issue. Natural/historical heritage legislation should prevent deterioration from development. The need to minimise emissions from transport leads to new models for urban and rural development of all kinds. Similar use of space. |
Emissions Reduction Measures Technical/ Financial | Electricity: Increase all forms of renewable energy for power generation. Use of CCS if fossil fuel to continue. Legacy nuclear power, CCS or renewable sources such as tidal energy for base load generation. Gas: Re use of redundant gas routes - e.g. for heat mains Encourage gas collection from chemical plant over flaring where possible. Improve supply and distribution efficiency to minimise waste Use of renewable heat and power (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, bioenergy) Combined heat and power Upgrades to grid system to facilitate input from large scale renewables Waste streams should be utilised where possible for power generation Energy cost per unit increases. Energy demand decreases greatly Greatly increased use of renewable energy sources and technologies Energy demand "designed out" of society Improved energy generation systems and technologies for transport including diversification from coal and gas firing. | Electricity: Reduction in Scottish coal extraction. Gas: Interconnection of gas networks may mean that N Sea production continues to supply other markets. Oil: Fuel switching from coal to gas Materials should be sourced using procurement systems which place high value in carbon emission reductions. There may be a need for development of new procurement systems, with novel means of assessing them in terms of their comparative carbon impacts. Life cycle assessment of alternatives should be carried out to establish the efficacy of new technologies for delivering carbon emission savings. Significant financial investments required for the development of a low carbon economy. Low carbon homes and buildings require changes to building practice, greater use of pre-fabricated components New industries develop associated with resource / carbon efficiency. Some specific semi-conductor materials for photovoltaic technology may increase in price if material supply limited. Increased use of biofuels and pressures on production methods and ecosystems may be significant. Improved efficiency in energy production and increased use of wind and hydro power. Consumption of materials required for new infrastructure will add burden. | Electricity: Major reduction in all emissions from reduction in fossil fuel burn. Gas: Reduction in emissions from production & transport (pipeline compressors) Oil: Early adoption of carbon capture and storage The existing PPC regime (or a stricter version of it) should be utilised to prevent avoidable pollution, and protect the air, water and soil environments. Carbon capture plants could require an amendment to the regime depending on their environmental impact. Waste management legislation should seek to avoid generation of unnecessary waste streams or to divert the stream appropriately. There is potential for generation of significant waste which must be dealt with appropriately. Pollution associated with conventional energy generation decreases greatly. Local emissions issues from use of biomass require careful attention. Waste from de-commissioning, impacts on water management for new power fuels and systems. | Electricity The planning system should steer the development of renewable capacity. There is potential for the planning regime to fast-track large scale projects. Locational guidance is already available for renewable developments. Natural/historical heritage legislation is probably sufficiently robust to prevent deterioration from development. Energy generation largely from low energy density sources, therefore land take and land use potentially increased (e.g. wind farms, growth of indigenous biomass for energy supply) and/or decreased (more decentralised power production, therefore grid infrastructure less significant) Challenges for land area for energy crops. |
Anticipated Environmental Effects (of emission reduction measures) on SEA Topics | Biodiversity, flora and fauna: There may be an indirect impact on biodiversity depending on the source of renewable energy (e.g. wind farms, biomass). Impacts are generally localised, permanent and negative, though limited in severity. Air: Biomass burning for energy can produce negative local air quality impacts, which can adversely affect human health. Other renewables technologies should have neutral impact on air quality. Low carbon transport reduces local air quality problems greatly. Possibility of increased transport air emissions. Waste streams could be diverted to energy production, reducing material use, although these can have direct impacts on air quality resulting from biomass transport. There should be improved air quality through energy efficiency or mode switching to more efficient energy production methods. Water: In general, waste streams and other emissions should be reduced, including those to water. Soil: Potential for contamination of soil to be reduced. Potential for some loss of soil/ soil erosion/ structural damage as a result of wind farm developments. Main impacts on soils through renewables physical infrastructure development. Human health/Population: Potential for human health impacts from local generation projects that involve combustion. Material assets/Landscape/Historic environment: Potential impacts as renewables development usually involve creating physical infrastructure with associated direct impacts on biodiversity, soils, and landscape and material assets. This applies equally to development of energy crops (monocultures, etc.). Landscape potentially affected by new energy generation developments and changes to existing energy generation and transmission developments. Reduction in fossil fuel consumption, though material intensive infrastructure development will be necessary for adequate renewables development. |