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04 CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT AND BACKGROUND

4.1 The following section offers some basic information on the broad issues related to climate change to help give the context for your response. If you would like further information, contact details are provided in Section 10. Each section in the consultation paper will provide further information on the specific topics covered and questions asked. A partial Regulatory Impact Assessment and draft Environmental Report provide additional information and are available from the climate change pages of the Scottish Government's website: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/climatechangebill. You are encouraged to read these documents to help inform your response.

The science of climate change: how it occurs

4.2 Climate change is not a simple scientific issue. The mechanisms which operate in the Earth's atmosphere are complex. This section offers a basic explanation of some of the fundamental facts.

4.3 Radiation from the sun is necessary to sustain all life on Earth. A proportion of this radiation passes through the atmosphere and warms the atmosphere and surface of the Earth. The short wavelength (visible) radiation that penetrates the atmosphere is absorbed by the surface which is heated. The energy is then re-irradiated at longer wavelengths as infra-red radiation. The out-going infra-red radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and re-irradiated in all directions, some back towards the surface. The result is to trap part of thermal energy re-irradiated by Earth's surface in the lower atmosphere which heats up. The higher the concentration of a greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the greater the proportion of longer-wave radiation that is trapped and so the greater the warming. This process naturally keeps the Earth's surface warmer than would be the case otherwise - an average surface temperature of +15°C as opposed to an average of -18°C without it. However, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions enhance this effect to create warming greater than that which would occur naturally.

4.4 The main greenhouse gases are water vapour and carbon dioxide (CO ₂). Other important greenhouse gases include methane (CH ₄), nitrous oxide (N ₂O), chlorofluorocarbons ( CFCs); and certain fluorine-containing gases ( HFCs, PFCs; SF ₆). Excluding water vapour, the concentration of these gases in the atmosphere has been increasing since the beginning of the industrial era. This increase is largely due to human activities. As an example, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased from a range of 275 to 285 parts per million (ppm) in the pre-industrial age (AD1000-1750) to 375ppm in 2005 and the rate at which this concentration is increasing is accelerating. Both carbon dioxide and methane are well above their normal range for at least the last 650,000 years. ⁶

The concept of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO ₂e)

4.5 Different greenhouse gases, whether naturally occurring or related to human activities, have differing chemical properties and make different contributions to climate change. A scientific methodology has been developed to enable quantitative comparisons between the different gases.

4.6 This approach captures both the ability of the gas to absorb radiation and its residence time in the atmosphere and enables us to determine the global warming potential ( GWP) of each gas. The calculations to establish the GWP of a gas are based on its affect on the atmosphere over a 100 year period. A 100 year period was chosen as the basis for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to reflect the long time scale for addressing climate change. Carbon dioxide has a GWP of 1 and can be used as a benchmark against which the global warming effect of other greenhouse gases can be measured.

Table 1

4.7 This measure of other greenhouse gases is usually expressed in the form 'carbon dioxide equivalent' (CO ₂e). For example, 1 tonne of methane (CH ₄) emitted into the atmosphere has 21 times the warming impact over 100 years compared to 1 tonne of carbon dioxide; or 1 tonne CH ₄ = 21 tonnes CO ₂e.

Global impacts of climate change

4.8 Climate change is already occurring and the consensus of scientific opinion is that it is being driven by the emissions resulting from human activities. Average global temperatures are 0.76°C higher than the second half of the last century and the rate of warming is increasing. Eleven of the 12 warmest years since 1850 occurred between 1995 and 2006. ⁷ Global average sea levels are rising, with the rate of rising accelerating, and glacier sizes and snow cover have reduced on average in both hemispheres.

Figure 1

Met Office, Hadley Centre

4.9 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988. The IPCC assesses a wide range of information collected from existing literature to produce a credible basis for climate change science which policy makers across the world can rely on to be independent, wide-ranging and robust. It provides a wealth of information on the causes of climate change, how climate change is affecting the world and how it will affect the world over the years to come.

4.10 The IPCC has drawn on a large number of simulations and direct observations to cover a range of possible futures. It is likely that average global temperature will continue to increase by about 0.2°C per decade for the next two decades, assuming most likely emissions trends.

4.11 The wide range of possible temperature increases make it difficult to estimate the future impact on the global environment and on people. However, the IPCC has presented the likely result of various temperature increases.

Figure 2

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate

4.12 This information demonstrates that as the average global temperature increases, the threat of more severe climate change consequences increases. This information also demonstrates that the effect will not be felt uniformly across the world but will begin to affect (indeed is already affecting) many regions in the developing world least capable of dealing with the effects of climate change.

4.13 Climate change is a real global threat. The independent Stern Review, which was published in 2006, is the most comprehensive review ever carried out on the economics of climate change. ⁸ Stern states that if the world fails to stabilise emissions in a relatively short space of time, it 'could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the Great Wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century'.

4.14 The most recent review of research presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that world greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced to between 50 and 85% below year 2000 levels in order to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and most likely limit warming to between 2.0 and 2.4ûC. ⁹

Table 2

This is an extract. For the complete table, please see IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

4.15 It should be noted that, in updating the scientific evidence of the causes of climate change, that the baseline the IPCC's conclusions differs from the 1990 baseline for carbon dioxide emissions used in the Kyoto Protocol. However, for the time being, the Kyoto Protocol remains the basis for international action on reducing emissions.

4.16 Further information is also available from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Contact details are provided in Section 10. The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change has published information on the science of the Earth's climate in a variety of formats on its website: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/.

Likely impacts of climate change in Scotland

4.17 Met Office data published in the Key Scottish Environment Statistics 2007 ¹⁰ shows that average annual temperatures in Scotland over the first years of this century were 0.8°C warmer than in the 1960s. Further information on climate trends in Scotland is available from the Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research. ¹¹

4.18 The UK Climate Impacts Programme ( UKCIP) has formulated scenarios to look at possible future climate change, dependent on predicted future global greenhouse gas emissions. This research provides Scotland with the best available information on predicted changes in Scottish climate over the next century and indicates possible:

• increases in the annual average temperature;
• increases in 24-hour maximum temperatures;
• increases in the length of the growing season; and
• wetter winters.

4.19UKCIP is funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on behalf of the UK Government, Scottish Government, Welsh Assembly Government and Northern Ireland Executive. In addition to research, UKCIP provides tools and datasets to support organisations and the public in understanding and adapting to the unavoidable changes in climate.

4.20 Revised versions of UK climate change scenarios will be available in October 2008. Further information can be obtained from the UK Climate Impacts Programme. Contact details are provided in Section 10.

Adapting to the impacts of climate change

4.21 Climate scenarios predict that over the next century Scotland is likely to see changes in seasonal rainfall patterns, with wetter winters and autumns, and warmer temperatures throughout the year. While many climate changes will impact on Scotland, an increase in the number of extreme rainfall or storm events is expected to have the most significant implications. The destructive potential of such events has already been demonstrated by the 2002 Glasgow floods and 2005 Western Isles storm, with severe consequences for individuals, the natural environment, major infrastructure and the economy.

4.22 Climate change presents major challenges for Scotland's land-using industries. The role of the town and country planning system in mitigation and adapting to climate change is already addressed in Scottish Planning Policies including those on flooding, renewable energy and housing. It will also be addressed in the second National Planning Framework. Agriculture and forestry will need to adapt to safeguard sustainability, adjust land management practices to changing climate and intensifying weather extremes, and prepare to exploit any opportunities presented by climate change. Impacts of climate change felt in other regions of the world may hold social and economic implications for Scotland through changes in trade and consumption patterns.

4.23 A well planned and coordinated adaptation response will minimise the negative impacts and highlight potential opportunities of a changing climate. While a comprehensive response will require adaptation to be integrated at all levels of government, the Scottish Government is uniquely placed to influence many of the policy areas central to a strong adaptation response in Scotland. Through government and government agencies' use of procurement and investment decisions as well as the provision of guidance and regulation we will direct adaptation in areas such as planning, health, flood risk management, transport, forestry, building standards, agriculture and nature conservation. The Scottish Government is currently developing a Scottish adaptation strategy to identify priority adaptation action required in Scotland and to clarify roles and responsibilities in achieving this action. Initial consultation on the Scottish Adaptation Strategy will be conducted in Spring 2008.

4.24 The Scottish Government, along with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, funds the Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership. The Partnership was established to increase the resilience of Scottish organisations and infrastructure to meet the challenges and opportunities presented by the impacts of climate change. The Partnership's website - www.sccip.org.uk - was recently launched and offers free access to high quality data on climate trends and their impacts in Scotland. Contact details are provide in Section 10.

4.25 The UK Climate Change Bill contains several provisions regarding adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the UK. Clauses would require the Secretary of State to lay before Parliament regular reports assessing the risks to the UK of the current and predicted impacts of climate change as well as setting out the UK Government's programme for action on adaptation. The Secretary of State is also to be given a power to direct relevant authorities performing public functions to similarly prepare reports assessing the risks associated with the impacts of climate change on the exercise of their functions, setting out their proposals for addressing those risks and outlining their progress. The Secretary of State's powers in relation to the programme of action and the power to direct relevant authorities performing public functions will relate to England and reserved matters only. Wales is taking similar powers through the UK Climate Change Bill, as is Northern Ireland in relation to a programme of action.

4.26 The Scottish Government recognises the need for countries to work together to address the global issues created by climate change. It is actively cooperating with the UK Government and other devolved administrations, however as the Scottish Government is able to address such matters within devolved competence, we do not require the UK Climate Change Bill to establish such legislative requirements to take effect in Scotland. Measures to address adaptation in Scotland will be primarily addressed through the Scottish Adaptation Strategy and any legislative requirements could be included in the Scottish Climate Change Bill.

Emissions trends in Scotland

4.27 Scotland's emissions are reported in the Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. ¹² In measuring Scotland's emissions of greenhouse gases, a net figure is used which takes into account the amount of CO ₂e which is taken out of the atmosphere by land use and forestry. Scotland's net emissions of CO ₂e greenhouse gases in 2005 were over 54 million tonnes. This is approximately 0.2% of world CO ₂ emissions and 0.15% of all greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities. The Scottish Government recognises that this is virtually insignificant as a proportion of world emissions - if Scotland were to eliminate all of its emissions, the effect on global climate change would be negligible. However, Scotland only has around 0.08% of the world's population - so we produce a much greater than average amount of emissions in proportion to our population. In addition to emissions which come from Scotland, consumption in Scotland has the effect of causing emissions to be released in other countries which produce products for the people of Scotland. Given the long-lived nature of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere it is also important to take account of past emissions. Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been rising since the beginning of the industrial age in the 18th century. Industrialised countries such as Scotland have contributed the vast majority of greenhouse gases caused by man currently in the atmosphere.

4.28 CO ₂ accounts for roughly 80% of Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions. The chart below shows net emissions of both carbon dioxide and all greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2005 in Scotland, as recorded in the Greenhouse Gas Inventories.

Figure 3

(1) Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur

4.29 Emissions trends show that there has been a decrease in total emissions between 1990 and 2005. Greenhouse gas emissions have been falling at a faster rate than CO ₂ alone. Between 1990 and 2005, CO ₂ fell by 12.5%, predominantly due to economic restructuring and afforestation, and non-CO ₂ gases fell by 25.3%, predominantly from a decrease in CH ₄ (methane) emissions from landfill and N ₂O (nitrous oxide) emissions from fertilisers, as well as a decrease in deep mine emissions. The overall reduction of all greenhouse gases in that period was 15.4%.

4.30 Though the general trend is that greenhouse gas emissions have been falling, total emissions levels have fluctuated year on year, with the largest annual percentage increase being 4.5% between 1999 and 2000 and the largest annual decrease 5.7% between 1998 and 1999. These annual fluctuations are largely due to changes in emissions from energy generation, which are influenced by factors outwith the control of Scottish Ministers such as changes in the relative price of fossil fuels and weather conditions.

4.31 The chart below shows the sectors in the Greenhouse Gas Inventories for Scotland which produce the emissions and how these vary between 1990 and 2005. The energy supply sector is the dominant source of greenhouse gas emissions: it represented 37% of all greenhouse gas emissions in 2005 but 39% on average over the period covered by the Greenhouse Gas Inventories (1990 to 2005).

Figure 4

Future emissions trends

4.32 We cannot be sure what future greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland will be; the forecasting of greenhouse gas emissions is an extremely complex task, with projections being made within an ever-changing policy, regulatory and economic landscape. Projections depend on a number of assumptions, including:

• Fossil fuel prices
• Fuel mix (whether gas or coal is favoured)
• Population growth
• Economic growth
• Success of programmes and policies designed to reduce emissions

4.33 There are a number of existing studies which have modelled future CO ₂¹³ and non-CO ₂¹⁴ greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland but none of these presents an up to date picture of future greenhouse gas emission trends in Scotland. The Scottish Energy Study, ¹⁵ considered, among other things, how Scotland's energy use could change in the medium term to 2020, using projections of demand and supply informed by different scenarios that will influence energy use in the future. The final volume of the Study - Volume 5 - covering energy projections, is currently being further updated and we expect to publish findings in the first half of 2008.

4.34 Updated UK emission projections produced for the UK Government's Energy White Paper ¹⁶ show that baseline UK greenhouse gas emissions are likely to fall in the short term (i.e. to 2010) but rise thereafter, see chart below.

4.35 As well as economic and social factors, future emissions trends will depend on the impact of new measures introduced to abate emissions. Given a range of measures identified in the Energy White Paper, two scenarios of high and low impact of these measures are also shown on the chart.

Figure 5

Source: Updated Energy and Carbon Emissions, Energy White Paper, 2007

4.36 This analysis shows that though progress has been made in reducing emissions, the road ahead is particularly challenging. Emissions post-2010 are unlikely to fall further without additional measures and might instead increase.

4.37 Using the UK figures is useful to illustrate possible future trends but these trends may not accurately reflect future Scottish emissions. There are factors that influence emissions projections which may have a different effect in Scotland than for the UK as a whole, these include:

• Differing rates of economic and population growth.
• Land use change and forestry.
• Electricity generation - Scotland currently has a much higher proportion of nuclear and renewable generation but this is offset to some extent by significant electricity exports to England and Northern Ireland (i.e. Scotland produces more electricity than it consumes so emissions are higher).
• Transport demand - the distances each vehicle travels have grown faster in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, leading to a faster growth rate of emissions from transport.

The economics of climate change

4.38 Tackling climate change and reducing our greenhouse gas emissions is a difficult task and will require wholesale changes in technology and to our lifestyles. Even though it will cost money to change our society to a low-carbon economy, there will be new business opportunities and savings from energy efficiencies. It is therefore appropriate that we assess the benefits and drawbacks of mitigating climate change in the world and in Scotland.

4.39 The UK has taken a leading role in studying the economics of climate change. The UK Government commissioned Sir Nicholas Stern to produce his review of the economics of climate change. The report assessed:

• The global economic impacts of moving to a low-carbon global economy, focusing on the medium to long-term perspective, and drawing implications for the timescales for action, and the choice of policies and institutions.
• The potential of different approaches for adaptation to changes in the climate.
• Specific lessons for the UK, in the context of its existing climate change goals.

4.40 The review looked primarily at the global economy and reached a clear conclusion: the benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting. The review found that if the world does nothing to mitigate climate change, the impacts could cost the world the equivalent of 5% of global GDP each year. Furthermore, it also found that if a wider range of risks and impacts are included, for example increased risk of disease and the possibility of irreversible environmental impacts, not taking action could cost the world the equivalent of 20% of global GDP each year or even more. ¹⁷

4.41 On the other hand, the Stern Review estimated that the long-run costs of action to stabilise global concentrations of CO ₂e at 550 parts per million (ppm) are expected to be around 1% of global GDP by 2050, within a range of +/- 3%. Analysis accompanying the UK Energy White Paper indicates that the long-term costs of achieving a 60% CO ₂ target in the UK are around 0.7% of GDP by 2050; ranging between 0.3% of GDP by 2050 depending on the future price of fossil fuels and 1.5% of GDP if low carbon technologies are not available. Further analysis undertaken for the Impact Assessment of the UK Climate Change Bill has examined the potential impact of an 80% CO ₂ target. This analysis estimates the costs to be between 1.1% and 2.6% of GDP in 2050. This is within the range calculated by the Stern Review and these figures give a clear message: taking early action to reduce emissions may have some costs but these are far outweighed by the costs that climate change will cause if no action is taken.

4.42 The Stern Review identifies four main ways of tackling emissions reductions:

• Reduce demand for emission-intensive goods.
• Improve energy efficiency.
• Switch to lower-carbon technologies for power, heat and transport.
• Reduce non-fossil fuel emissions, particularly in land use and agriculture.

The mixture of abatement opportunities are likely to vary across countries and sectors over time, for example, some technologies will not become commercially viable until several decades from now.

4.43 There is a role for government in establishing a policy framework which is conducive to reducing emissions. The Stern Review identifies three areas of market failure where government can act to provide the right incentives for businesses and individuals to act. These are:

• Set a price for carbon. The damage costs imposed on the world by greenhouse gas emissions are an 'externality' that needs to be reflected in the prices of goods.
• Technology policy. Uncertainty and knowledge spill-overs mean that carbon pricing alone will not be enough to induce low carbon technology at the pace and scale needed.
• Removing other barriers to behaviour change. Imperfections such as information asymmetry and capital constraints mean that abatement will not be fully implemented if relying on carbon pricing alone.

4.44 The economic case for action is clear. The Scottish Government believes that taking early action will have additional benefits to the Scottish economy. Enshrining targets in legislation should increase certainty for firms investing in Scotland when coupled with the implementation of credible policies which clearly demonstrate capacity to deliver these objectives. This clear signal could help Scottish firms to gain an early advantage, potentially becoming European and global market leaders. Our natural resources in renewable energy are also immense, some of the best in the world, and our position in Europe means that we can take advantage of this economically while also playing our part in the global fight against climate change.

International context

4.45 Cutting Scottish emissions will only help to avoid the most dangerous aspects of climate change if other countries with high levels of emissions are prepared to take action. If not, drastic cuts in emissions in Scotland (or the UK) will have an insignificant impact on climate change. The Scottish Government therefore supports the UK Government making climate change a strategic priority in discussions with international partners.

4.46 The international community has already begun a coordinated response to the challenge. The current international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is the Kyoto Protocol in which a number of industrialised countries aim to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases by, on average, 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. An international agreement is needed to set commitments beyond 2012 and negotiations have begun.

4.47 The Scottish Government was represented, as part of the UK delegation, at the third meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in Bali in December 2007. The conference achieved an historic breakthrough in agreeing a roadmap to achieve a global deal by the end of 2009. The roadmap recognises that deep cuts in global emissions are needed. The conference agreed to address the four 'building blocks' of mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing. Agreements were also reached on addressing deforestation, work to accelerate investment in technology, and a fund to support adaptation in developing countries.

4.48 The EU has committed to reducing its collective greenhouse gas emissions by 8% in order to contribute to the Kyoto Protocol target of 5.2% overall. The UK share of the EU collective target was 12.5%. The key plank for achieving the EU target is the EU Emissions Trading Scheme ( EUETS) which began in January 2005 and is the largest emissions trading scheme in the world (see textbox on page 42 for further details). The scheme is mandatory for large emitters, covers almost 50% of Scottish CO ₂ emissions and is designed to ensure that emissions reductions are made where they are most cost-effective.

4.49 Further developments have been taking place at a European level. At the Spring European Council on 8 and 9 March 2007, EU Heads of Government agreed an ambitious unilateral binding target to reduce Europe's greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) and to increase this commitment to a 30% reduction if an international agreement is reached.

4.50 The Scottish Government monitors international and EU developments and works with the UK Government to agree a UK position on relevant international climate change issues. The Scottish Government plays an active role in the States and Regions' climate change initiative that brings together smaller countries, regions and states with a view to playing their part in combating dangerous climate change. ¹⁸

UK context

4.51 The UK Government published its consultation on a draft Climate Change Bill in March 2007, with a headline target of reducing the UK's carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050. The Bill, which was introduced into the UK Parliament in November 2007, includes setting targets in statute and setting a limit on the total amount that can be emitted by the UK over a five-year period (carbon budgeting). It also seeks to establish an independent committee to advise on the level of those carbon budgets, create enabling powers and reporting requirements. ¹⁹ Following the Scottish Parliament's agreement in December 2007 to a Legislative Consent Motion, many of the provisions of the UK Bill, on enactment, will extend to Scotland.

4.52 Given the global challenge of climate change, it is right that the Scottish Government should work in partnership with the rest of the UK to show international leadership. The UK Bill provides a framework for shared action and has been drafted in terms which recognise the role of the Scottish Government as a partner in the pursuit of the UK emissions reduction target. It does not specify the measures to be used in Scotland to achieve the targets. The Scottish Climate Change Bill will offer an opportunity to put in place a statutory framework, additional to the UK one, for a distinctive Scottish target and to introduce any relevant devolved policy measures which require primary legislation. Actions taken under devolved Scottish powers to meet the Scottish target will help towards meeting the UK target as well. Similarly, there are areas such as energy generation for which power has not been devolved but where UK Government climate change action could help Scotland meet the Scottish target.

4.53 As part of the UK Energy White Paper published in May 2007, a proposal for a UK-wide Carbon Reduction Commitment ( CRC) was announced. It will target emissions from energy use by most large commercial and public sector organisations (including supermarkets, hotel chains, government departments and large local authorities). The scheme is likely to be introduced in 2010. A second joint consultation was launched in June 2007 by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs ( DEFRA), the Scottish Government and the other devolved administrations on a range of options for achieving the required emissions savings (the consultation closed on 9 October 2007). Two Scottish stakeholder seminars were held (in January and August 2007) to discuss options and scheme implementation. Scottish Ministers will decide how the scheme will be implemented in Scotland following analysis of the consultation responses.

Scottish context

4.54 Changing Our Ways, Scotland's Climate Change Programme, ²⁰ set out Scotland's response to the urgent social, economic and environmental challenge of climate change. It quantified for the first time Scotland's equitable contribution to UK climate change commitments in carbon terms, setting a Scottish share and target. The first annual report on progress was published in March 2007. ²¹ A new programme will be required to deliver the more ambitious target set out in this consultation.

4.55 The proposed Bill will sit above Scotland's Climate Change Programme and will set the high level statutory framework for climate change policies in Scotland. The Government Economic Strategy ²² has emissions reduction as one of its targets, providing a key yardstick by which our commitment to sustainable economic growth will be judged. In addition to specific spending proposals linked to emission reduction measures, the Scottish Government's Budget Spending Review ²³ makes a strategic commitment to introduce a system of cross-compliance, making it clear that all public spending decisions must take account of, and contribute to, the action needed to meet our emissions targets. Some of the measures included in the Spending Review which are expected to lead to a reduction in emissions in Scotland include:

• Funding initiatives by farmers and other stakeholders in the rural community to reduce climate change emissions from land management practices and to manage our rural environment more effectively, through the £1.6 billion Rural Development Programme.
• Launching the first-ever Saltire Prize with a £2 million annual fund to recognise innovation and a £10 million horizon prize - with the first challenge in 2008 focusing on renewable energy.
• Tripling the funding for community renewables and microgeneration to reach £13.5 million a year by 2010-11.
• Addressing the environmental impacts of transport through a package of funded measures that promote more sustainable travel.
• Ensuring that the Forestry Commission is able to invest £15 million a year in new woodlands in a move towards increasing forest cover to 25%.

4.56 The Scottish Government has also just set a new, demanding renewables target: 50% of electricity generated in Scotland by 2020 (as a proportion of whole demand - i.e. Scottish consumption including transmission and distribution losses and own use by generators) should come from renewable sources, with an interim target of 31% by 2011.

4.57 The way we use agricultural, afforested and other undeveloped land has a major impact on net greenhouse gas emissions. Scotland has huge amounts of carbon locked up in, peatlands, organo-mineral soils, and vegetation, including forests. Maintaining the overall level of these carbon stocks is an important priority, particularly as climate change itself might make them more vulnerable to oxidation, thereby adding to emissions. Land use changes like deforestation and conversion of grassland to arable all result in CO ₂ emissions. Livestock and use of fertilisers are sources of methane and nitrous oxides. On the other hand, woodland creation and conversion of arable to grassland create carbon sinks, with CO ₂ being locked up in biomass and soils. Given Scotland's significant land resource, emissions reduction from, and carbon sequestration through, land use will remain a key part of our climate change strategy.

4.58 The historic built environment can also contribute to emissions reduction and the reduction of environmental impact through informed and sustainable management of historic and traditional buildings. In general, refurbishment of an existing structure uses less material, and produces lower greenhouse gas emissions, than creating a structure from scratch. Preliminary work carried out by the Building Research Establishment on life cycle analysis of historic buildings using eco-points of materials (including greenhouse gas emissions, life cycles, toxicity of materials, etc.) has shown that a building constructed of new materials will have used a larger quantity of CO ₂ relative to an equivalent building made from traditional materials.

4.59 The Scottish Government has also committed to introducing a Flooding Bill to allow a modernised and sustainable approach to flood risk management with streamlined decision making. It will introduce new measures to reform the current legislation, the Flood Prevention (Scotland) Act 1961, transpose the EC Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks and make provision for a portfolio of responses for managing flood risk.

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