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7. CONCLUSIONS
This concluding section provides comments on the approach undertaken, a summary of the drivers and knowledge gaps and key messages from the review process.
7.1 Methodology
The approach of holding a number of face to face meetings with senior decision makers, workshops with a range of participants and an open web site has resulted in a wide and diverse range of views and has identified a number of knowledge gaps. However, as indicated in section 4, it was apparent that drivers of change are more readily identified and described than are the associated gaps in knowledge and research needs. In particular those interviewed who were not part of the research community were not necessarily appraised of current research and outcomes, and consequently not able to readily describe gaps that research could usefully address. As a consequence many of the knowledge gaps outlined in this report are of a generic nature.
The approach was more heavily weighted to traditional participants in the Scottish Government research programme and hence the response more skewed to areas of agriculture and environment, and less on marine, energy, transport and community level approaches. None-the-less many issues relating to these areas were identified. It is suggested that this perception-based approach would be usefully supplemented by a more evidence-based approach.
In view of the objective of the approach to identify the areas where research, or science in the broadest sense can make a contribution to policy development these areas are briefly summarised below.
7.2 Knowledge gaps to be addressed through science
A substantial number of knowledge gaps were identified relating to increased understanding of the impacts of longer term drivers such as demographic, socio-economic and global change (including climate), as well as trends in governance and participation, public behaviour and technology. Much of this work requires that due weight is given to social and economic considerations in the achievement of sustainability. The opportunities lie in understanding the linkages between all these drivers and the many receptors of change. Specifically there is a need for greater modelling in terms of the implications of such changes on urban and rural communities with a particular need to consider global issues such as migration patterns, impact of climate change on food demand, production and supply.
The challenges of land use received considerable attention - in terms of the multiple demands that will be made in future as a result of diversification of agricultural practice, change in societal demands and expectations, land reform, recognition of the value of biodiversity and the move towards an ecosystem-functioning approach to land management. Knowledge gaps relate to determining optimal management of the land (particularly in a changing climate), the valuing of ecosystem services and greater understanding of the relevance of geographical scale in terms of land management.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the issue of food production and security featured not only as a key area of interest (and one of uncertainty), but one with a substantial number of knowledge gaps, and also one in which Scotland has considerable expertise and international reputation on which to build. The priorities for new research were not limited to any particular aspect - with food safety/disease monitoring and control, food security and implications of changes in subsidies and trading patterns, as well as consumer behaviour and sustainability of food production all highlighted.
Knowledge gaps associated with marine resource relate to understanding of fish stocks and the associated communities, stock depletion and recovery (affected by climate change) and future alternatives. In addition there is a need for research to support a risk assessment approach and tools to assist in marine-spatial planning decisions. Knowledge gaps around freshwater resource were much more limited, and focused on flood management measures, water conversation and charging mechanisms.
The health and wellbeing of Scotland's society was an issue of concern - in particular developing a better understand of diet and nutrition, modelling of future trends, as well environmental justice, greenspace and the links between the natural environment and health. Knowledge gaps identified will require the integration of different government actors.
Linked to this, Sustainable Communities received relatively few mentions, and again key issues were around terminology and the understanding of "communities", and behavioural change. Community cohesion and understanding the composition and purpose of rural communities were other areas needing research.
Transport issues centred on demand management and climate change issues, with knowledge gaps relating to behavioural change and improved modal development and planning.
Energy supply and demand issues relate to economic and regulatory drivers, and the renewables debate. Knowledge gaps relate to developing the appropriate energy mix and balance and scale of supply, and influencing changes in patterns of usage. Other aspects of waste and resources management received relatively little attention except at workshops.
7.3 Additional key messages
Several key messages were embedded in the outcomes from the review process. These are covered briefly below
Many of the drivers of change and associated knowledge gaps are linked, and research programmes should take account of this interconnectedness. In particular the key drivers of change defined in Topics 1- 5 (Demographic, social, economic, governance and participation, public attitude & behaviour, technology & innovation, and global change (including climate and environmental) are closely associated with the other 9 topic areas. These connections would be best explored through a systems approach i.e. involving macro and micro levels, the functioning of the system, feedback mechanisms and what happened if one part of a system is depressed or another enhanced This approach requires a shift from analytical thinking to contextual thinking. Indeed Scotland could be considered as a national ecosystem - with the need to address the social, economic and environmental aspects of the system,
A key response, from face to face and workshops, was the benefit of developing mechanisms for better integration of research into policy and better integration across policy areas. The systems approach to developing research programmes could be usefully designed to take account of this. There is also an opportunity to understand the business and social enterprise context and for research to make connections here.
A clear message was that Scotland's environment, agriculture and marine resources cannot be studied in isolation from changing patterns of societal demands and expectations or Scotland's economic welfare. All must be seen as part of the whole. The issues related to economic growth, social development and environment protection have often been researched on parallel tracks. This neither meets the objective of sustainable development or policy integration , There is a need to consider Economic and Social Development together with the Environment. There are advantages in understanding the role of the natural environment in the economy as well as understanding links between environment, vibrant communities and entrepreneurship, particularly for rural areas,
Finally, it is important to note the need for research programmes to be fuelled by and to increase innovation. This involves dialogue, networking and collaboration in shaping and developing the research. In addition, barriers to innovation such as planning and licensing issues should be considered at an early stage to ensure that desired outcomes can be achieved.
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