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4. POLICY-RELEVANT DRIVERS, TRENDS & CHALLENGES AND ASSOCIATED KNOWLEDGE GAPS / RESEARCH NEEDS
This section summarises the main findings from across the interviews, the website consultation, the two workshops and comments made by SSAP. Section 4.1 provides a summary overview of the policy drivers, trends and challenges, followed by a more detailed overview of the main knowledge gaps and potential research needs. The findings are considered within the wider context (Section 4.2). It should be noted that although considerable information on policy drivers was provided, the information on current knowledge and knowledge gaps/research needs was less clear or readily articulated. Some interpretation of findings by SNIFFER has therefore been required.
4.1 Overview of drivers and knowledge gaps
Topic 1- Demographic, social and economic change
Policy drivers and challenges
The broad area of demographic, social and economic change was widely recognised as an important area for future work for both natural and social sciences in the near and extended long-term. Discussions and contributions indicated that there are key areas where Scotland does not possess, yet requires significant advances in, knowledge as future policy is developed. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Demographics
- Ageing population; migration patterns: issues around ethnicity.
2. Economy and the environment
- International trade, global markets
- Green politics, corporate social responsibility
- Environmental management
- Rural development and diversification
3. Social equity and justice
- Inequalities in Scotland; rural and urban.
Knowledge gaps
Gaps in knowledge were identified around the changing patterns of population movement, their impacts and economic implications. There is a need for better understanding of the increasingly complex relationship between the economy and the environment, and in particular what Scotland's international role will be, and how Scotland will draw on its natural resources to sustain this.
1. Demographics
Demographic Models | Adapting economic modelling, using latest demographic models and statistics, and the development of predictive models to consider future service requirements especially in rural and coastal areas. |
Impact of Migration | Understanding the social implications of migration patterns, and how these will impact upon core environmental services (water, waste, housing, health, education and the trading environment). |
Urban / rural challenges | Using social modelling to understand the challenges of urban/rural division and expectations. For example demands made of rural landscape for amenity/leisure versus food production and also the impacts of changes in communication, working patterns, leisure and social support which may affect urban/rural divide. |
2. Economy and environment
Predicting the economy | Research to help predict the shape and size of the rural economy over the next 5-10 years in terms of sectors, regions, populations and economies. |
Review of indicators | A re-evaluation of current indicators of socio-economic and cultural well-being and how these can be used to generate policy-relevant data. |
Methods of valuing the environment | Review of the socio-economic value of ecosystems in terms of what they deliver for Scotland and what could be lost from the environment by economic development. Linked to this is the need to find better ways of valuing public goods rather than willingness to pay. Development of a hierarchy or framework to assign multiple values (economic, intrinsic) to various land uses. |
Understanding impact of global and future demands and policies | Identifying the long term impacts of global issues on Scotland's economy including new growth opportunities for example the benefits of changing maritime trade patterns. Development of models/predictions of the likely impacts of rising global demand for food products (and global climate change) on Scottish and local food markets. Understanding the implications (including social) of current and developing EU and international policies and the power of lobby groups - across all policy areas. |
Encouraging economic development through resource use | Understanding of social sciences that can help the rural economy grow including how to encourage enterprising solutions in terms of multiple use of Scotland's resource, how to attract inward investment and encourage upskilling of the population for a technically more developed society. How to encourage communities to work together for the purpose of business development. How to encourage social responsibility at farm level. |
Investment in land and marine industry | Research to improve technical efficiency of land-based and marine industries for economic, environmental and social gains including understanding the interaction between environment and rural to produce new economic wealth. |
Sustainability | Research to help embed sustainability into public decision-making - understanding the barriers and uptake by policy. |
3. Social equity and justice
Ethical concerns | Understanding growth in ethical concerns in relation to many consumer activities. |
Justice | Investigation of links between social justice and environmental justice. |
Topic 2 - Governance and participation
Policy drivers and challenges
Participation and engagement are seen as key components of good governance. A range of issues was identified around international governance and the political decision making process in Scotland. These included mechanisms of stakeholder engagement and for science to inform policy. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. International regulation and protocols
- European legislation, CAP, WTO and trade liberalisation. National Action Plan on FAnGR, Convention on Biological Diversity, emerging UNFAO policy
- International commitments to adaptation to climate change and their integration into domestic policy
2. Integrated decision-making processes
- The potential impact of Scottish independence
- Integration and long term planning to fully protect the environment and plan for disasters; integration of climate change into all policies
3. Participation
- Community empowerment policies, community ownership
- Role of private versus public sector in public sector provision; understanding what the public wants.
Knowledge gaps
A number of fundamental knowledge gaps were identified relating to the changing balance between policy influences from local / national to international level, together with a clear desire to find ways to integrate areas of policy-making.
1. Policy development and engagement
How to influence policy | Increased understanding of how policies can be influenced (and the barriers to doing so). Understanding of the time delay between policy generation and action. Mechanisms to integrate different sectors into decision-making. Understanding how policy can engage with end user needs and include independent regulatory impact assessment. |
Use of levers and systems thinking | Research into the use of levers and incentives to encourage systems thinking across policy areas. How to embed sustainability into public decision making. |
Impact of policy on environment | Research to explore the impact of national and international policies and to inform future ones to ensure sustainability of rural communities and environments. |
2. Governance
Governance structures | Understanding how to engage with the changing governance structures within the UK and Europe. |
Independence | Understanding what independence would mean for Scotland. |
3. Local and stakeholder participation
Engagement mechanisms | Research into public engagement mechanisms to encourage local participation in policy decisions / resource allocation including better integration of interests to address societal concerns. |
Conflict | Understanding how to equate and resolve conflicts between divergent concerns. |
Topic 3 - Public attitudes and behaviour
Policy drivers and challenges
Although there were few mentions of public attitudes in terms of drivers reference was made to the need to change public behaviour for example in relation to healthy eating, energy conservation, local energy generation and transport options. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Public engagement and awareness
- Public engagement in and support for science and research
- Informed public debate over difficult issues and increasingly empowered communities
2. Influencing behavioural change
- Changing public values and behaviours
- Educating the population to take individual and collective action
- Use of incentives rather than legislation
3. Public perception and consumer influence
- Consumer influence on global problems.
Knowledge gaps
The essential gap here is in providing the scientific basis to help inform decisions between a range of possible choices which are not readily comparable. Such choices involve ethical considerations as well as economic judgement, and a balance between short-term and longer-term consequences. It was suggested that a systems perspective may be helpful.
1. Public response to GM technology
Consumer response | Research to address likely consumer / food supply chain responses to use of new genetic technologies / nanotechnology - predicting what will be considered acceptable and under what circumstances. |
2. Public engagement in horizon scanning
Futures | Research activities to engage the public in future choices and actions for Scotland. |
3. Influencing behavioural change
How to change behaviour | Understanding how to change public values and behaviours e.g. in relation to resource use (waste, energy, water, transport). Educating the population (in its entirety) to take individual and collective action to combat climate change. Understanding the role of incentives compared to legislation. |
4. Public perception and consumer influence
Public attitudes | Understanding societal expectations and how consumers can influence global problems. |
Topic 4 - Technology and innovation
Policy drivers and challenges
Participants noted that technological change has taken place at enormous speed over the past 30 years, and future developments are certain to have a major impact on the nature and the management of the environment, and the rural and marine spheres of activity. Information in the literature identifies biotechnology and nanotechnology as opportunities for Scotland. Technology developments offer challenges and opportunities for Scotland across a wide range of activities - including healthcare, food production, energy production, construction, waste management and communications. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Agriculture and food production
- Technological change in relation to increased food production, disease control, food engineering, functional foods and ecosystem services.
2. New technologies/technology uptake
- Renewable energy, Biotechnology, nanoparticles, GM, communications technology, cleaner transport.
3. International competition
- The role of emerging knowledge economies such as India and China.
Knowledge gaps
The range of knowledge gaps identified was very broad. The importance of linking policy to a more rigorous evidence base on emerging science and technology was considered important. The interfaces between technology, society and the environment were also noted as crucial to the acceptability and adoption of new technologies.
1. Uptake and incentivisation
Incentivising technology uptake | Developing greater insights into the human response to new technology and what drives technology uptake (particularly in the private sector) including methods to encourage entrepreneurial enterprise and to incentivise industry to make changes, invest in and take-up new technology. |
Rural communities | Understanding how to include rural communities in the innovation system. |
Exploiting Scotland's expertise | Mapping expertise in Scotland and defining opportunities. Understanding mechanisms that enable technology transfer from Scottish based research organisations to industry and that ensure that Scotland best exploits and protects its emerging IPR. |
2. Investment in new technology development
New technology | Extended research into new technology for pharmaceuticals, transport, water purification. Better utilisation of genome mapping. Development of novel molecular technologies to gain a better understanding of biodiversity and meet biodiversity targets. Development of new vaccines and alternatives to chemical intervention in animal disease treatment. |
3. Comparative impact analysis of new technologies
Impacts on economyDeveloping understanding of the impact of new technologies on society - how technology will change Scotland over the next 10 years and how we might regulate and understand public acceptance. Undertaking strategic environmental impacts of new technology before it is in wide spread use. Research to examine and compare renewable energy technologies in terms of economy. | |
Topic 5 - Global change (climate and environmental)
Overview of policy drivers and challenges
'Global Environmental Change' includes climate change which was raised as a key challenge during the review, alongside other environmental drivers such as pollution, changes in ozone levels or changes in land use. Although considerable mention was made of mitigation, a greater emphasis was on adaptation and on developing a better mechanistic understanding of the impacts of a changing climate. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Impacts on ecosystems, land use and food production
- The effect of climate change on food production (including marine), sustainable communities, and land use generally
- Carbon sequestration and organic soils in Scotland
2. Societal and government response (adaptation and mitigation)
- Integration of climate change across all policy areas
- How society at all levels will respond
3. Energy technologies
- Climate change acting as a catalyst for technological change and a commercial opportunity to take green technology to the rest of the world.
Knowledge gaps
The knowledge gaps can be broadly divided into (i) predictions, monitoring/impact assessment; (ii) adaptation and (iii) mitigation. The relevance of considering the issue at different scales was raised - temporal, local, regional and national, as well as international. For this topic in particular it is important to ensure strong future links with the international climate change research agenda. A strong message was that action to mitigate and adapt to climate change is both crucial and urgent. There was a concern that a sense of urgency becomes lost in calls for 'further research' and that research priorities could be more clearly linked to overcoming barriers to change.
1. Prediction, monitoring and impact assessment
Scenario planning | Scenario-planning for Scotland to build up the predictive capacity and to do this in a language appropriate to end users. There is a need to move from model-based to evidence-based approach involving monitoring to develop an understanding of how natural ecosystems are responding to climate change. |
Environmental footprint | Developing a means of assessing our environmental footprint. |
Impacts on food production | Understanding impacts on food production (globally and locally) including genetic diversity, vulnerability of crops to pests and diseases, pollination. Linked to this is the ability to anticipate which diseases will become economically important before they become fundamentally damaging, and to have solutions available. |
Impacts on infrastructure | Understanding impacts of changing climate on infrastructure e.g. housing, roads, flooding and communities. Understanding the implications of large scale population movements as a consequence of climate change, including impacts on health, housing, and food security for Scotland. |
2. Adaptation
Microscale response | Developing an understanding of micro-scale responses - how will a household or business adapt to climate change in different locations and under different likely futures? |
Food security | Developing science-based methods for selective breeding, livestock feeding and grazing management that are compatible with climate change and food security issues. |
Risk | Tools to give greater appreciation of risk versus investment in relation to adaptation. |
Habitat conservation | Information is required for management strategies, e.g. understanding the implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation and how to choose which habitats to conserve. |
3. Mitigation
Tools | Developing tools to understand good carbon offsetting and the investment prospects for carbon sequestration. |
Behavioural change | Social research to inform how to engender behaviour change in relation to energy use. |
Targets | The development of a framework for adopting targets e.g. responses by local authorities. |
Topic 6 - Multifunctional use of land
Policy drivers and challenges
The issue of multifunctional use of land recognises the major shifts resulting from changing climate, economic factors, new technology and social trends, and the resulting pressures and opportunities for how Scotland's land is used. Consideration was given to the interaction between conflicting (or synergistic) demands on land as a resource rather than single issue topics ( e.g. the soil resource). The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Multiple demands on Scotland's land
- Population growth, demographic change, change in agricultural practice and competition for land for energy, housing, amenity and leisure etc.
- Pressures in terms of food security, tension between those trying to make a living in the rural areas and those visiting or living and commuting.
- Recognition of soil as a commodity.
2 Ecosystem service based approach
- Recognising components of the natural environment consumed or enjoyed to yield human well-being. Paying for environmental stewardship.
3. Land reform
Knowledge gaps
Many of the knowledge gaps involve socio-economic considerations, and raise the issue of scale, both spatial and temporal. This category also links with governance and climate change issues. The complexity of interactions and consequences suggests the need for a more integrated, systems-based approach. The use of scenario planning to consider future land management options under different governance and regional planning options is a clear requirement.
1. Rural land use / development and planning
Optimal management approaches / governance | Developing means of understanding how we manage, protect and enhance (land) resources for the optimal and sustainable wellbeing of society, allowing development in the rural economy without sacrificing one or more sectors in the process, taking account of social, economic and environmental evidence. This will also require consideration of governance including the sub-regional level and assessment of the role of policy, analysis and planning to determine optimal governance mechanisms for multifunctional land use and economic viability. Investigating levers of change e.g. the use of subsidies. What future for crofting - should it be based upon food and agriculture or a quality environment such as footpaths and semi-natural environments? |
2. Ecosystem functioning
Valuing ecosystem services | Greater understanding of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning and, in turn, a better understanding of the provision of goods and services (and the pressures upon these). What price are we willing to pay for landscape conservation? |
(Climate) change | Understanding systems dynamics related to ecosystems and in particular the influence of factors such as climate change in order to use this knowledge to manage change. What role does soil play in carbon storage? |
3. Understanding spatial and temporal scale
Scale of land management | Understanding to inform decisions concerning the scale at which land should be managed - smaller scale (homogenous environment) versus larger scale (heterogeneous environment) versus community level and how to manage the resource flows. |
Framework to assign values to land usage | A need for techniques to measure the effectiveness of land management options and introduce alternatives that link strategies relating to incentives to the effects and benefits achieved (including environmental stewardship). Research is needed to assign multiple values (economic and intrinsic) to various land uses. |
Temporal scale | Understanding related to how to balance long term potential impacts with short term gains. |
Resilience | (Assessing) the carrying capacity and resilience of land under different uses and over different time periods. |
Topic 7 - Food production and security
Policy drivers and challenges
Perhaps not surprisingly, given the nature of the audience and the historic focus of the SEERAD research programme, the issue of agriculture and food production was raised with the greatest sense of urgency and concern. Emphasis was placed upon food production, followed by issues of food safety and disease and markets/consumer interests. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Food production (land and marine based)
- Implications of global changes / climate change / demographics on supply and demand
- Scotland's vulnerability to food supply in terms of interruptions to the supply chain
- Disease surveillance as part of an overall animal health and welfare strategy
- Tensions between land use for food production and non-food crops. Food security as a major issue with competing demands ( e.g. biofuels) on agricultural land, requiring innovative strategies to balance demands with a finite resource
2. Subsidies and trade
- CAP - mid-term review and what happens to farmers after 2013
3. Consumer behaviour
- Changing societal expectations - e.g. ethics and animal welfare, vegetarianism, organic foods and local production
- Impact of climate change on major food products and preparedness to pay for local versus global / organic
- Genome mapping linked to market demands.
Knowledge gaps
The knowledge gaps were detailed and wide-ranging, with a particular need to respond to the influences of climate change and consumer preferences. Clearly there is a large body of research underway relating to many of these areas, with considerable expertise within Scotland and its national institutes. Many of the needs identified below build on existing and planned research rather than being novel.
1. Subsidies and trade
Value | Assessing agriculture's contribution to Scotland's GDP and whether the amount spent on agriculture is justified. |
2. Food production
Disease control | How to control disease without drugs / chemicals. Understanding epidemiology of disease and the use of preventative health regimes. Research into the use of genomics to replace an ageing vaccinology approach. Improving the efficiency of livestock production through understanding immunology and using this knowledge for disease prevention and control through vaccination, moving away from chemotherapeutics. Increased understanding of exotic diseases of livestock and crops and potential zoonoses, and implications of climate change. |
Predicting demand | The development of better models / predictions to address the likely impacts of rising global demand for livestock products, climate change etc. on markets at Scottish / UK / European levels. |
Increasing supply | Providing scientific evidence base that allows us to scale up production of high quality food - developing new genotypes (crops, animals) to meet new challenges. |
Markets | Identification and development of new markets for existing and new crops. |
Impacts of climate change | Understanding the impact of climate change on major food products - what can we continue to grow in Scotland. Understanding risks of changing disease and pest geography. |
3. Quality issues
Functional foods | Understanding the functional basis of prepared convenient foods being of good nutritional value. |
Nutritional quality | Understanding how to enhance nutritional qualities of crops and how to improve processing potential for convenience and new markets. |
4. Sustainability
Sustainability of food production | Increased knowledge on how food can be produced sustainably (particularly in relation to disease control) and increased understanding of the environmental impacts of agriculture. |
Organic foods | Understanding opportunities for and implications of organic food production in terms of varieties of crops, higher disease resistance, reduced fertiliser needs. |
Reducing environmental impact | Understanding how to integrate food production and environmental services - reducing environmental (and carbon) impact of farming whilst maintaining quality and economic returns, developing market orientated ecosystems that yield environmental, social and cultural gains. |
5. Consumer behaviour
Future demands | Understanding consumer (and food industry) future demands and behaviours including willingness to pay for local versus global. |
Consumption patterns | Understanding and influencing consumption patterns to align production and consumption to dietary benefit, including better labelling. |
Topic 8 - Biodiversity and habitats
Policy drivers and challenges
The relationship between biodiversity and the economic use of the landscape was raised an important concern, as was the need for biodiversity to be incorporated into all policy making. More than any other area, the developing skills gap was mentioned relating to biodiversity, taxonomy and ecology. This was also an area for which increased education and innovation is to be encouraged, with more opportunity made of marine national parks and improved promotion of Scotland's biodiversity. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Economic value of biodiversity
- Placing an economic value on the natural environment particularly in view of economic challenges from food and bio-fuel production and the need to develop more innovative approaches to balance production and conservation.
2. Species versus ecosystem
- Promoting a biodiverse ecosystem rather than protecting individual species.
3. Climate change
- Implications of climate change on biodiversity.
Knowledge gaps
Particular enthusiasm was expressed for more research at an ecosystems level to understand the impact of wider changes on biodiversity. This parallels the interest in developing a systems-based understanding of multifunctional land use, and the two are clearly related.
1. Ecosystem functioning
Understanding of functioning | Understanding of the functioning of eco-systems at a catchment level. Adaptability of ecosystems to a changing climate, agricultural practices ( e.g. reduced livestock, recycling of wastes to land), future of 'Less Favoured Areas". Understanding how to manage for biodiversity conservation alongside the delivery of other goods and ecosystem services such as food production, water quality, renewable energy and carbon storage and capture. |
Economic value of biodiversity | Measuring the economic value of biodiversity (including urban biodiversity). |
Resilience | Understanding the resilience of ecosystems and understanding/ predicting the impact of introduction of new/invasive species. |
Health implications | Understanding the links between health and biodiversity - plant, animal and human. |
2. Marine issues
Marine biodiversity | Understanding marine biodiversity e.g. loss of sand eels which in turn is leading to substantial losses of Scottish seabirds. |
3. Measurement definition and monitoring
Advanced monitoring | The development of more advanced monitoring methods and in particular non- invasive methods and the use of indicators. |
4. Skill and expertise development
Skills gap | Finding ways to address the gap in expertise in biodiversity. There is a need for more microbiologists and more mycologists. Greater education and innovation relating to biodiversity - encouraging more marine national parks and the improved promotion of Scotland's biodiversity. |
Topic 9 - Marine resource
Policy drivers and challenges
Although the number of participants referring to the marine environment was small it was clear that considerable future drivers/challenges relate to marine policy and fisheries in a wider (holistic/sustainable development) context. Discussion focused on the international management of fisheries, future-proofing the fishing industry, protecting against collapse of marine systems and developing opportunities for aquaculture. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Fisheries policy development
- The sustainability of fish stocks and the need to agree fishing policy with EU, related to marine species recovery. Taking a holistic approach to marine - and aquaculture - fisheries particularly as new industrial opportunities arise.
2. Integration of marine policy
- The need for a wider sustainable development agenda rather than environmental agenda.
- Multiple use of marine environment for wind, wave, power and carbon sequestration which may require new approaches such as marine spatial planning, marine strategies directive, and maritime policies.
- Conflicting demands in terms of energy generation, recreation and fisheries but also the importance of the coast in contributing to sustainable communities and the economy.
3. Climate change
- Implications on fish stocks and distribution.
Knowledge gaps
1. Fish stocks and community interests
Sustainability of stocks and communities | Understanding the sustainability of fishing and livelihoods (including aquaculture) - in terms of fish stocks ties but also the communities which depend on the industry and how the traditional fishing industry can adapt. |
Recovery | Understanding collapse and recovery of stocks and identifying and testing out opportunities for fishing of alternative species. |
Ecosystems approach | Understanding and introducing an ecosystems approach to fish stocks and managing the marine environment. |
2. Climate change implications
Impacts of climate change | Understanding the effects of climate change on marine ecology and the food chain and coastal communities. The use of predictive models to consider fish populations and ecosystem response. |
Identifying cause of change | Using an ecosystems approach to determine how many problems are caused by over-fishing or pollution as opposed to climate change more generally. |
3. Conservation and spatial planning
Implications of legislation | Understanding the implications of marine conservation areas and the Marine Bill - including social science issues related to marine use and declining fishing communities. |
Risk assessment | The use of a risk assessment approach in marine-spatial planning - to facilitate more flexible decision-making. |
Property rights | Understanding of marine property rights and how to manage them, taking account of the interest of coastal communities. |
4. Future economic and environmental impacts
Economic opportunities | Developing an understanding of new economic opportunities for the marine environment - e.g. using marine environment for bioenergy or new materials, as well as understanding which aquaculture species will be successful. |
Impact of marine industry | Developing means of determining economic and environmental impact of the marine industry including the impact of oil and gas exploitation on marine ecosystems and the effect of shift towards wave and energy production. |
5. Maritime transport
Trends | Understanding the likely future trends in maritime transport and their economic and environmental implications for Scotland. |
Topic 10 - Freshwater resource
Policy drivers and challenges
Interestingly freshwater had relatively few mentions, with general responses covering water quality, water supply and flooding. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Water quality provision
- Supply of clean water and related issues such as prevention of water pollution by agricultural practice, flooding.
2. Flooding issues and infrastructure development
- Supporting the infrastructure e.g. resilience in terms of flooding and implications of low flow conditions on discharge and extraction.
- Uptake of sustainable flood management techniques.
3. Climate change
- Impacts in terms of increased flooding, severe weather events, sea levels rise, passive water treatment.
Knowledge gaps
Most of the suggestions indicated the need to understand better the links to consumer behaviour, farming practices, regulation, the wider ecosystem and of course climate change.
1. Flooding issues
Flood management | Exploring the need for a stronger relationship between flooding and adaptive measures, in order to handle risk more effectively. Understanding the role of the ecosystem in flood management, and flood defences and planning. |
2. Conservation, regulation and climate change
Water charging / conservation | Evaluating how much people would be willing to pay for their water. Understanding how to motivate people to value and conserve water. Understanding the role of regulation in achieving change, alternative mechanisms (a national grid for water, role of the market) and how to improve efficiency through water engineering. |
Climate change | Impact of climate change on freshwater - both drought and flooding. |
Pollution | Finding ways to influence land owners on how to mitigate pollution of water. |
3. Water supply
Availability | Analysing geographical differences in water availability both across Scotland and the UK - could Scotland become an exporter of water? Understanding urban pressures on rural water sources. |
Topic 11 - Health and wellbeing
Policy drivers and challenges
Although the health sector was less well represented in the list of stakeholders there was some standard discussion on drivers and knowledge gaps raised. The major challenges identified relate to diet, alcoholism and societal attitudes, and the heavy pressure that these place on the health services. Some limited consideration was given to the environment and psychological wellbeing. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Food and diet
- A very broad range of issues around finding ways of influencing people to improve their dietary intake.
2. Greenspace
- Issues around how people interact with the environment and effects on wellbeing and health.
3. Diseases
- The challenges brought by new and emerging food and environmentally borne diseases.
Knowledge gaps
Respondents concentrated primarily on the need to understand better the relationship between diet, human behaviour and health, with less attention to the health benefits of access to green space and the countryside.
1. Diet and nutrition
Beneficial foods | Increased basic mechanistic understanding of nutritional value of foods and what food is beneficial for health. Increased understanding of how different components of food can influence food uptake e.g. protein, plant phytochemicals. |
Food preferences | Increased understanding of why people are not eating fruit and vegetables. |
Obesity | Understanding how to deal with obesity and the outcomes of interventions to curb obesity. |
Implications of food on health | Understanding how and when nutrition impacts on fertility and pregnancy and in particular for vulnerable sections of our society. The potential for personal medicine and functional foods to improve the health of the Scottish population. |
2. Modelling future trends
Predicting impact of diet | Models to understand the influence of diet and the environment on children's health for future years. The development of models to take a holistic approach to human health (including costings) where holistic is taken to mean the whole body in the whole environment. Better appreciation of the linkage between socio-economic circumstances and ill health. |
3. Food quality and safety
Promoting healthier food | Understanding of factors which impact on the affordability and accessibility of food - how to promote better and healthier choices. Information about how the food chain impacts on sustainability and health. |
4. Environment and health
Psycho-social benefits | Understanding the relationship between the physical environment and human health - Psycho-social health benefits of greenspace (urban and rural). |
Topic 12 - Sustainable communities
Policy drivers and challenges
This is a broad topic which attracted an uneven level of responses across the different sources. It should also be noted that some of the drivers/challenges and knowledge gaps included under "demographic" (particularly concerning migration), and "social/economic", also relate directly to "sustainable communities". The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Community interests
- Rural-urban interface and tension and changes (including socio-economic) in terms of the nature of future rural community.
- Greenspace and the role of the community, social interaction, physical activity.
- Community ownership of land. Crofting.
2. Justice and wellbeing
- Environmental justice, the need for affordable housing.
- Regeneration including environment and health focus and the need to develop communities on brown field sites.
3. Waste management
- Cultural and behavioural shift required to move towards a zero waste society.
Knowledge gaps
A number of important areas for investigation were identified, recognising the dynamic social and economic forces at work in communities, considering their capacity for development and survival, and the need to identify effective policy and support mechanisms. There is uncertainty in terms of sustainable communities in Scotland (relative to the UK as a whole) and a need for more research in terms of demographic trends and reform to the planning system. A separate set of knowledge gaps relates to improving waste and resource management, including water.
1. Understanding communities
Rural communities | Profiling of rural communities to understand better their capacity for rural development. How to assess social capital. Understanding the uniqueness of crofting and its public benefit. Understanding rural community development bodies and their value. Research into profitable farms and social responsibility - whether farmers who run their business well are more likely to invest in the environment / local community. Understanding the role of rural areas in bringing in investment and people, and the link between vibrant communities and entrepreneurship in rural areas. Effect of land reform on community development, investment and land use, using evidence on the ground to inform future land reform policies. |
Marginalised / stressed communities | Understanding the composition and tensions within communities What are the systems and support mechanisms to sustain communities? Understanding shifting communities, people and services Understanding the contribution we can make to public health and how to engage with certain [marginalized] communities. We need to understand better what people want from concepts such as "urban-greening". |
2. Behavioural change
Incentives / encouragement | Understanding the role of policy and incentives to change behaviour, encourage local business, transport subsidies, healthcare provision. Rural social cohesion issues, how to encourage a community to help itself. |
3. Communities and Waste/Resource Management
Water resources | Understanding how the water industry, in partnership with others, can address the challenge of water management in the sustainable community context. Public perception of water/resource use, and how to use waste as an energy resource. |
Recycling / energy from waste | Understanding technological advances to improve recycling levels and develop markets for example incineration and the generation of energy from waste. Understanding how to move beyond the levels of recycling achieved through voluntary actions and how legislation could help. Understanding how to develop and promote new technology to improve resource reuse and waste segregation. |
Holistic approach | Opportunities to address waste holistically, considering climate change issues and developing analytical frameworks for sustainable consumption. |
Topic 13 - Transport and accessibility
Policy drivers and challenges
The focus was on the need for a behavioural change in transport demand, integrated transport and reduced dependency on car usage. Although not a key area for this Scottish Government research programme there were some specific areas of relevant research. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Demand management
- Reducing the need and desire for travel, particularly in commuting.
- More local production to get freight off roads.
2. Climate change
- The trade-off between transport for economic development and the mitigation of climate change.
- Resistance to change / more sustainable forms of travel.
3. Modal issues
- Integrated transport.
- Develop use of waterways.
Knowledge gaps
Participants felt the main gaps were in understanding what the best transport options were, and in finding ways of changing behaviours in favour of those options. As with several other categories, the need for a systems perspective was mentioned.
1. Policy development and behavioural impacts
Behavioural change | Understanding the impacts of policies on changing behaviour - how to encourage more active transport (walking and cycling and hence promote health benefits) and how to reduce disincentives. |
Working patterns | Developing understanding of future working patterns and trends and how this has implications on transport and behaviour. |
Cost implications | Predicting the social impact of transport including what happens when fuel becomes costly, impact of change in transport on communities. |
2. Integrated modal development and planning
Integrated planning | Understanding how to adopt an integrated participative planning process - with better access to public transport. |
Managing existing systems | How to better manage existing transport systems - e.g. location of new rail stations, integrated transport links and more integrated planning with other services such as housing. |
Design | How to plan and design living places with transport in mind. |
Systems thinking | How to develop a systems approach to compare alternative transport modes. |
3. Impact on carbon emissions
Resource use | Understanding how to reduce the resource footprint of transport systems e.g. more use of local produce, and how to protect key wildlife sites in face of infrastructure development. |
Lifecycle assessment | Provision of information on LCA on vehicle production and full carbon cost. |
Community development | Understanding how to achieve accessibility whilst reducing carbon emissions, taking account of accessibility and community coherence. Understanding how to adopt an integrated participative planning process - with better access to public transport, and how to better manage existing transport systems - e.g. location of new rail stations, integrated transport links and more integrated planning with other services such as housing. |
Topic 14 - Energy supply and demand
Policy drivers and challenges
Much more attention was given to alternative sources of production than to the drive for increased energy efficiency, with emphasis on energy potential and the security of supply, taking account of independence issues. The main policy drivers and challenges were:
1. Drivers and development of renewable provision
- Sustainable energy supply / energy security related to higher oil prices, diversification of sources including the biofuel debate.
- The drive towards a renewable-energy-based society (for power, transport, homes and business).
- Uncertainties in terms of Scotland achieving its future renewables targets.
- Future role of nuclear power
2. Supply issues and economics
- The ability of the grid system to supply energy to remote communities. Ability to produce locally rather than transport/import.
- Energy for a growing population, particularly once peak oil has been reached.
- Economic and social implications of North Sea oil futures.
- Economic problem in terms of trade for energy, depending on whether Scotland is part of the UK economy or independent
3. Regulation and policy development for climate change
- Extent of regulation to mitigate the effects of climate change.
- Implementation of energy policy that is politically acceptable and environmentally/economically sensible.
Knowledge gaps
As with healthy food and transport, an important gap was in understanding the effectiveness of different market interventions on changing behaviours. Finding ways of reducing consumption emerged as a knowledge gap, although not raised as a driver. Understanding more about local / micro generation options was another significant topic, as were public attitudes to local schemes. A systems approach would usefully address the complexity of the issues and interactions.
1. Renewables / energy balance
Renewables | Understanding incentives for new markets, full costings and take-up of renewables (marine, biofuels) and the long term economic and environmental implications of any incentives. |
Impacts | Understanding the implications of green energy - for example what percentage of the countryside needs to be given over to wind farms and how does this compare to energy that could be derived from marine energy sources. |
Local versus national | Understanding the potential of locally produced energy versus the national grid and addressing barriers to changing attitudes to micro/community generation and local opposition to new energy generation schemes more generally. |
Sustainability | Understanding what is the most efficient and sustainable local energy system. |
2. Energy demand / efficiency
Resource use | Addressing barriers to changing attitudes on reducing energy usage and the use of technological change to reduce energy consumption - how to shift to a lower carbon/low waste society. Understanding how to promote building and planning to increase energy efficiency from more efficient houses, public buildings and transport options, and understanding the role of subsidies and incentives e.g. subsidising energy conservation. |
3. Nuclear waste
Nuclear Waste | Addressing how Scotland will deal with its nuclear waste. |
4.2 Drawing together the drivers and knowledge gaps
The information above and summarised in Table 1 below describes drivers and knowledge gaps within the confines of 14 topic areas. However, in reality many of these issues are inter-related and were presented as such by the participants. In particular the key drivers of change defined in Topics 1- 5 (Demographic, social, economic, governance and participation, public attitude & behaviour, technology & innovation, and global change (including climate and environmental) are closely associated with the other 9 topic areas.
As noted in a number of the topics, the need for systems thinking has been promoted, particularly at workshops but also by a number of interviewees from policy and research backgrounds, - see section 7.3
Table 1 - Summary of key drivers and knowledge gaps identified by participants
TOPIC | DRIVERS / CHALLENGES | KNOWLEDGE GAPS IDENTIFIED BY PARTICIPANTS |
|---|
Demographic social and economic change | Demographics Economy and the environment Social equity and justice | Use of demographic models Impacts of migration Understanding urban/rural challenges Predicting the economy Suitability and effective use of indicators Methods of valuing the environment Understanding impact of global demands and policies How to encourage economic development through resource use Effective investment in land and marine industry How to embed sustainability into public decision making Understanding the growth in ethical concerns Links between social and environmental justice |
Governance and participation | International regulation and protocols Integrated decision making processes Participation | How to influence policy Use of levers and systems thinking Impact of policy on the environment How to engage with changing governance structures Impact of Independence Engagement mechanisms to encourage local participation How to resolve conflict between divergent interests |
Public attitudes and behaviour | Public engagement and awareness Influencing behavioural change Public perception and consumer influence | Likely consumer response to new technology Research to engage the public in future policy choices How to change behaviours Understanding societal expectations and their influence |
Technology and innovation | Agriculture and food production New technologies/technology uptake International competition | How to incentivise technology uptake How to include rural communities in the innovation system How to exploit Scotland's expertise Researching new technology for environmental purposes Impacts of new technology on society and the economy |
Global change - climate & environment | Impacts on ecosystems, land use and food production Societal and government responses Energy technologies | Use of scenario planning to build predictive capacity Evidence-based understanding of responses to climate change Developing a means to assess environmental footprint Impacts on food production Impacts on infrastructure Microscale responses - households and businesses Agricultural responses to climate change and food security Tools to assess risk vs. investment for adaptation Implications for habitat conservation Development of tools for mitigation Understanding behavioural change re. energy use A framework for targets for mitigation |
Multi-functional use of land | Multiple demands on Scotland's land Ecosystem service based approach Land reform | Optimal management approaches/governance Valuing ecosystem services Understanding systems dynamics to manage change Appropriate scale of land management Framework to assign values to land usage Understanding temporal scale of benefits and impacts Resilience of land under different uses |
Food production and security | Food production Subsidies and trade Consumer behaviour | Assessment of value of agriculture New and better mechanisms for disease control Predictions of demand for agricultural products Evidence for increasing supply Identification of new markets Impacts of climate change on major food products Understanding functional basis of foods How to enhance nutritional quality How to produce food sustainably Organic foods - opportunities and implications How to integrate food production & environmental services Future demands including willingness to pay for local How to influence more beneficial consumption patterns |
Biodiversity and habitats | Economic value of biodiversity Species versus ecosystem Climate change | Understanding ecosystems functioning Economic value of biodiversity Resilience of ecosystems and impact of change Links between health and biodiversity Marine biodiversity More advanced monitoring methods How to address the gap in skills and expertise in biodiversity |
Marine resource | Fisheries policy development Integration of marine policy Climate change | Sustainability of stocks and communities Recovery of stocks and opportunities for alternatives Ecosystems approach to fish stocks and marine environment Impacts of climate change on marine environment Understanding causes of change Implications of legislation Risk assessment in marine-spatial planning Marine property rights Understanding new economic opportunities Economic & environmental impacts of marine industries Trends in maritime transport and their implications |
Freshwater resource | Water quality provision Flooding issues and infrastructure development Climate change | Adaptive measures for flood management Understanding attitudes on water charging/conservation Climate change impact through drought & flooding How to influence landowners to mitigate pollution of water Analysing patterns of availability and export opportunities |
Health and wellbeing | Food and diet Greenspace Diseases | Mechanistic understanding of health benefits of food Understanding why people don't make healthy choices How to deal with obesity Implications of food choices on health Predicting impact of diet & use of holistic models How to promote healthier food choices Psycho-social benefits of the physical environment |
Sustainable communities | Community interests Justice and wellbeing Waste management | Rural communities and their capacity for development Understanding change and tensions within communities Role of incentives/encouragement to change behaviour How to manage water resources in sustainable communities Home to promote recycling and energy from waste Developing holistic approach to sustainable consumption |
Transport and accessibility | Demand management Climate Change Modal issues | How policies can change behaviour Influence of changing working patterns Predicting social impact e.g. when fuel costs increase How to adopt an integrated participative planning process Better management of existing systems How to design living places with transport in mind Systems approach to compare alternative modes How to reduce the resource footprint of transport systems How life cycle assessment applies to vehicle production How to achieve accessibility whilst reducing emissions |
Energy supply and demand | Drivers and development of renewable provision Supply issues and economics Regulation and policy development for climate change | Understanding incentives for markets in renewables Understanding impacts of green energy e.g. land vs. marine Understanding potential of local energy versus national grid Understanding mechanisms for changing energy use Working out how Scotland will deal with its nuclear waste |
4.3 Findings within the wider context
This section considers the work of various other initiatives and inquiries covering similar or related ground to this scoping review. It considers the similarities and differences between the findings, where these are available. These comparisons are highlighted [shaded text].
Current initiatives
ERFF (Environmental Research Funders Forum)
The findings at this stage can be compared with those emerging from the UK-wide Environmental Research Funders Forum ( ERFF) Uncertainties project from which 11 priorities emerged (Box 1).
Box 1: Priorities from the ERFF project |
- Cities and the environment;
- Economic growth within environmental limits;
- Costs and benefits of renewable energy;
- Food production;
- Sustainability of the water supply;
- Changing behaviours;
- Changing ecosystems;
- Reducing uncertainty around climate change;
- Transport and mobility;
- Consequences of population movement; and
- Deploying technology.
|
Perhaps not surprisingly many of the priorities in terms of future drivers identified in this review for Scotland match closely with UK level uncertainties. However, the ERFF uncertainties give more attention to cities and the environment; costs and benefits of renewable energy; deploying technology; and transport and mobility. In both approaches, issues relating to economic growth within environmental limits, and large scale/long term population movement have been given less emphasis than may have been foreseen.
One strong message from the Scotland review is the need for greater direction and integration (across government, and between government, private sector and research communities). In contrast, the issue of partnership working was placed in the secondary list for ERFF.
Sustainable Development Commission in Scotland
The recent (2007) document entitled "Sustainable Development Commission in Scotland - a review of progress by the Scottish Executive" has a focus on steps that the new government is encouraged to make to move further toward a sustainable Scotland. Some key areas of relevance to this review are as follows:
Economy
- "Focus on Scottish economy is pivotal to the delivery of sustainable development in Scotland - that is not an end in itself but development of economic development policy has been only partly integrated with wide objectives."
- "The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 is a significant environmental challenge facing Scotland's economy."
Consistent with these statements, the engagement process indicated that much needs to be done to link the natural environment research programmes to economic and social interests - rather than working in isolation. This confirms the importance of a joined-up more sustainable approach to evidence-based policy making across related areas and a systems approach.
Society
"Focus on Scottish society - well-being of people and the sustainability of the communities in which they live - is at the heart of the sustainable development agenda. The challenges for government are on:
- inequalities in health and poor diet;
- a joined up approach that addresses social inclusion, food supply and agricultural policy; energy implications of food production and distribution;
- joined up approach to regeneration, planning greenspace provision and community participation;
- community planning;
- building sustainable communities - social justice benefits of better public transport"
Many of these issues were referred to in this review.
Environment
"The future challenges are:
- addressing greenhouse gas emissions,
- energy efficiency and demand reduction
- emissions from transport
- energy performance of buildings
- waste production"
Limited knowledge gaps emerged in these areas during the engagement discussions, although they were all referred to.
Environment Agency Horizon Scanning Team
This approach (referred to in Section 3) involves the continual filtering of the vast amount of online information about science and technology, classifying what is relevant according to environmental regulation themes and storing it in a horizon scanning interactive database ( HSDB-i). This information is then analysed to draw out future issues and opportunities for the environment. The process discovers issues through the weight of evidence rather than through conjecture. This contributes a unique perspective to the suite of 'futures' techniques currently used across UK Government. The information is analysed intelligently - for example visual connections between data can be made using software to enable issues to be seen that are not immediately obvious. Other programmes analyse the text and generate topics that help the team to communicate issues and opportunities (such as weekly Science Scan, Specialist Scans and Future Looks). The important aspect to note here is the robust provision of evidence relating to future technology.
This review did not identify similar mechanisms in place in Scotland to allow policy makers (or researchers) to tap into such a systematic futures-based approach.
Future initiatives to consider
Several relevant areas of work, and administrative changes, are underway which should be taken into account during the main consultation - these are listed below:
- The change of administration and restructuring of departments;
- Policy developments such as Climate Change Bill; 2 Soils Directive; 3 Flooding legislation, 4 Marine Bill and the need for Marine Spatial planning; 5
- The uncertainty over the new Scottish Government strategies in relation to Science & Innovation, Sustainable Development etc;
- Scottish Funding Council - Rural Policies for the Future initiative ("The Council has identified rural policy as an area in which it wishes to understand Scotland's current and potential future research capabilities in terms of SABRIS and universities etc.");
- Scottish Government Inquiry into the Future of Crofting, chaired by Mark Shucksmith; 6 and
- RSE inquiry into Scotland's Hill and Island Areas which is particularly relevant given its remit (identifying drivers of change, and the impact and policy implications of these changes, in Hill and Island Areas). 7
These concurrent reviews, inquiries and policy developments confirm that the scoping review covers an area of current public interest, high on the policy agenda.
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