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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Background
This review examines the areas where science in its broadest sense can make a contribution to policy development relevant to Scotland in order to help shape the next Scottish Government Rural, Environment and Marine research strategy. It recognises the connections between these and other areas of policy, reflected in the increasing emphasis on sustainable development, and therefore anticipates that the future strategy is likely to require a joined up approach across all Scottish Government policy areas.
Objectives
The project is an initial screening / scoping approach to identify and analyse the priority areas which will form part of an initial 'framework'. This framework will be published in early 2008 and subsequently the detailed content and future delivery mechanisms will be consulted on during a follow-on stage after the completion of this project.
The review seeks to identify, from the perspective of a range of stakeholders in these policy areas including government, researchers and civic society:
- policy relevant drivers, trends and challenges over the next 30 years;
- knowledge gaps and potential research needs relevant to these drivers;
- perceptions of scientific expertise in Scotland; and
- their responses to some indicative future research themes developed by the Scottish Government at the start of the review.
Methodology
A total of 101 participants took part in the review. This included 44 face to face interviews with senior decision makers; two workshops with a range of stakeholders including researchers; and a dedicated website open for general input. In addition comments on interim findings were sought from the Strategic Science Advisory Panel ( SSAP) which advises the Scottish Government on the strategic development of the research programme including horizon scanning. Supplementary activity was undertaken by liaising with the Environmental Research Funders Forum ( ERFF) regarding a similar study looking at future uncertainties at a UK level. The value of the Horizon Scanning interactive database managed by the Environment Agency was reviewed. In addition a literature review (provided as a separate document) was undertaken (Horizon Scanning for Scotland's Future) using over 100 publicly available documents and in particular literature identified by participants during the interview and website process.
Main Findings
A substantial number of knowledge gaps were identified relating to increased understanding of the impacts of longer term drivers such as demographic, socio-economic and global change (including climate), as well as trends in governance and participation, public behaviour and technology. Much of this work requires that due weight is given to social and economic considerations in the achievement of sustainability. The opportunities lie in understanding the linkages between all these drivers and the many receptors of change. Specifically there is a need for greater modelling in terms of the implications of such changes on urban and rural communities with a particular need to consider global issues such as migration patterns, impact of climate change on food demand, production and supply. The drivers and associated knowledge gaps identified during the scoping discussions were related to (in no particular order):
- Changes in land use
- Biodiversity
- Food production and security
- Marine resources
- Freshwater resources
- Health and wellbeing
- Sustainable communities
- Transport
- Energy
- Waste and resources management
A full listing of the drivers and knowledge gaps identified buy participants is given in the table at the end of this summary.
Broad message
Cutting across these topics was the overall message that many of the drivers and receptors of change are linked, whereas research responses are often narrowly defined. This inter-connectedness should be reflected through research programmes which bring together social, economic, environmental and resource perspectives. Systems-based and inter-disciplinary approaches would produce knowledge relevant to more sustainable policy-making.
The wider context
The findings accord to a large extent with those of the literature review (provided separately) which recognises the policy significance of climate and demographic change as well as change in food production/agricultural subsides. However, the review also identified changes in coastal and marine sectors and energy as key issues. The findings also resonate with the ERFF Uncertainties study, although the latter places more emphasis on transport and renewable energy. The priorities in the Recent Sustainable Development Commission Scotland report 1 on Scotland's performance considers future environmental challenges such as greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency and demand reduction; emissions from transport; energy performance of buildings and waste production - again these are less significant in the findings of this review.
Perceptions of Scotland's scientific expertise
The engagement process identified the perceptions that Scotland is well served by research and innovation relating to food and agriculture, and is developing skills in biotechnology and the renewable energy sector. Skills gaps are emerging in more traditional areas of taxonomy, as well as environmental design expertise. Opportunities exist for centres of excellence (perhaps virtual) and for a mechanism that drives integration and innovation among researchers, the business sector and policy community. A mechanism by which the policy community can readily identify Scotland's existing expertise and knowledge was identified as a priority.
Response to themes
Feedback was sought on the four themes initially suggested by the Scottish Government as a framework, namely " local responses to global change"; " sustainable communities"; " sustainable environments"; and " support for nationally important rural, environmental and marine capability and resource". The responses indicated the need for clear definitions of 'sustainable'; the importance of ensuring the promotion of Scotland's economy; and the need for strong delivery mechanisms with clear strategic leadership in place. It would also be appropriate to involve the public, communities and end users in the process of shaping work activities rather than seeing them solely as recipients of knowledge. Additional comments covered the need for science to drive competitiveness and innovation rather than responding largely to legislation and regulation.
Summary of key drivers and knowledge gaps identified by participants
TOPIC | DRIVERS / CHALLENGES | KNOWLEDGE GAPS IDENTIFIED BY PARTICIPANTS |
|---|
Demographic social and economic change | Demographics Economy and the environment Social equity and justice | Use of demographic models Impacts of migration Understanding urban/rural challenges Predicting the economy Suitability and effective use of indicators Methods of valuing the environment Understanding impact of global demands and policies How to encourage economic development through resource use Effective investment in land and marine industry How to embed sustainability into public decision making Understanding the growth in ethical concerns Links between social and environmental justice |
Governance and participation | International regulation and protocols Integrated decision making processes Participation | How to influence policy Use of levers and systems thinking Impact of policy on the environment How to engage with changing governance structures Impact of Independence Engagement mechanisms to encourage local participation How to resolve conflict between divergent interests |
Public attitudes and behaviour | Public engagement and awareness Influencing behavioural change Public perception and consumer influence | Likely consumer response to new technology Research to engage the public in future policy choices How to change behaviours Understanding societal expectations and their influence |
Technology and innovation | Agriculture and food production New technologies/technology uptake International competition | How to incentivise technology uptake How to include rural communities in the innovation system How to exploit Scotland's expertise Researching new technology for environmental purposes Impacts of new technology on society and the economy |
Global change - climate & environment | Impacts on ecosystems, land use and food production Societal and government responses Energy technologies | Use of scenario planning to build predictive capacity Evidence-based understanding of responses to climate change Developing a means to assess environmental footprint Impacts on food production Impacts on infrastructure Microscale responses - households and businesses Agricultural responses to climate change and food security Tools to assess risk vs. investment for adaptation Implications for habitat conservation Development of tools for mitigation Understanding behavioural change re. energy use A framework for targets for mitigation |
Multi-functional use of land | Multiple demands on Scotland's land Ecosystem service based approach Land reform | Optimal management approaches/governance Valuing ecosystem services Understanding systems dynamics to manage change Appropriate scale of land management Framework to assign values to land usage Understanding temporal scale of benefits and impacts Resilience of land under different uses |
Food production and security | Food production Subsidies and trade Consumer behaviour | Assessment of value of agriculture New and better mechanisms for disease control Predictions of demand for agricultural products Evidence for increasing supply Identification of new markets Impacts of climate change on major food products Understanding functional basis of foods How to enhance nutritional quality How to produce food sustainably Organic foods - opportunities and implications How to integrate food production & environmental services Future demands including willingness to pay for local How to influence more beneficial consumption patterns |
Biodiversity and habitats | Economic value of biodiversity Species versus ecosystem Climate change | Understanding ecosystems functioning Economic value of biodiversity Resilience of ecosystems and impact of change Links between health and biodiversity Marine biodiversity More advanced monitoring methods How to address the gap in skills and expertise in biodiversity |
Marine resource | Fisheries policy development Integration of marine policy Climate change | Sustainability of stocks and communities Recovery of stocks and opportunities for alternatives Ecosystems approach to fish stocks and marine environment Impacts of climate change on marine environment Understanding causes of change Implications of legislation Risk assessment in marine-spatial planning Marine property rights Understanding new economic opportunities Economic & environmental impacts of marine industries Trends in maritime transport and their implications |
Freshwater resource | Water quality provision Flooding issues and infrastructure development Climate change | Adaptive measures for flood management Understanding attitudes on water charging/conservation Climate change impact through drought & flooding How to influence landowners to mitigate pollution of water Analysing patterns of availability and export opportunities |
Health and wellbeing | Food and diet Greenspace Diseases | Mechanistic understanding of health benefits of food Understanding why people don't make healthy choices How to deal with obesity Implications of food choices on health Predicting impact of diet & use of holistic models How to promote healthier food choices Psycho-social benefits of the physical environment |
Sustainable communities | Community interests Justice and wellbeing Waste management | Rural communities and their capacity for development Understanding change and tensions within communities Role of incentives/encouragement to change behaviour How to manage water resources in sustainable communities How to promote recycling and energy from waste Developing holistic approach to sustainable consumption |
Transport and accessibility | Demand management Climate Change Modal issues | How policies can change behaviour Influence of changing working patterns Predicting social impact e.g. when fuel costs increase How to adopt an integrated participative planning process Better management of existing systems How to design living places with transport in mind Systems approach to compare alternative modes How to reduce the resource footprint of transport systems How life cycle assessment applies to vehicle production How to achieve accessibility whilst reducing emissions |
Energy supply and demand | Drivers and development of renewable provision Supply issues and economics Regulation and policy development for climate change | Understanding incentives for markets in renewables Understanding impacts of green energy e.g. land vs. marine Understanding potential of local energy versus national grid Understanding mechanisms for changing energy use Working out how Scotland will deal with its nuclear waste |
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