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Appendix B - Review of baseline environmental characteristics
Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna
Of the UKBAP priority habitats and priority species found in Scotland, by 2005 around 33% of habitats and 32% of species were stable or are improving, whilst 30% of habitats and 14% of species were in decline. 7 The condition of the remainder is unknown, unclear or fluctuating. SNH undertakes monitoring of the condition of Scotland's designated sites. Recently released figures 8 show that 71% of the sites monitored were found to be in favourable or 'unfavourable recovering' condition. Further restoration and enhancement will therefore be required to meet the stated targets of achieving favourable condition in 80% of sites by 2008 and 95% by 2010.
SEPA notes that climate change is already having an impact on biodiversity, and that other processes including urbanisation, land use change and the spread of non-native species will make it difficult to reach stated biodiversity targets. 9 The broader Countryside Survey 2003, which monitored change in broad groups of habitats between 1990 and 1998, showed that there was a substantial decrease in semi natural habitats in Scotland in this period (-88,000 hectares).
There are some potential tensions, as well as positive links, between planning for housing and biodiversity. While national planning policy for housing may lead to the release of more land for development, thereby potentially affecting habitats or species, some good practice on integrating biodiversity with housing developments has emerged in recent years. This includes initiatives that link biodiversity awareness-raising with provision of sheltered housing, and 'eco-housing' developments that include wildlife gardens. At a more strategic level, West Lothian Council undertook a biodiversity assessment of the housing sites that were proposed for inclusion in its local plan. 10
Population and human health
Population and health are relatively closely linked with national planning policy relating to housing. The population of Scotland in 2005 was 5.095 million. Although there was a steady decline in the national population during the 1980s, small increases were recorded until the mid-1990s. It is predicted that the population will rise to 5.119 million by 2024, at a growth rate of around 1% (compared to 10% for the UK as a whole). 11 The number of households in Scotland has risen more substantially in recent years, partly as a result of a decrease in household size.
Scotland's health record is poor, with the population having the highest rate of coronary heart disease in Europe. Poor health is particularly concentrated in households with lower incomes. Although levels of physical activity and consequently health in Scotland have been improving, 44% of men and 33% of women currently meet the recommended levels of physical activity, suggesting a need for further changes to lifestyles to overcome health problems in the long term. Asthma and wheezing problems also persist and are more prevalent in deprived households. 12
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation ( SIMD) 2006 13 shows spatial patterns of social exclusion, defined by a combination of factors including income, employment, health, education and skills, access to services, housing and crime. There are geographic concentrations of deprivation in Scotland, largely within the central belt and urban areas, with the City of Glasgow having 34% of the most deprived areas in Scotland, 9% in North Lanarkshire, 7% in Edinburgh and 6% in South Lanarkshire. Deprivation is also a significant rural issue as a result of specific determining factors. For example, areas such as the Western Isles and parts of Highland have particular problems arising from poor access to services. Comparison of the figures from the 2004 and 2006 SIMDs show a slight reduction in urban deprivation, alongside a slight increase in rural deprivation.
The Scottish Housing Market Review 14, published by The Scottish Government in June 2007, provides a comprehensive summary of the housing market in Scotland, including an analysis of the recent rapid growth in house prices. The Review begins by presenting data on recent market trends and affordability, showing that house prices in Scotland have risen well above their historical trend in recent years without generating an obvious supply-side response.
The Review analyses the key components of demand and supply, focussing on the role of changes in the credit market and the responsiveness of the house building industry to higher prices. It notes that overall the Lothians and Highland Council areas have been the least affordable in Scotland, but notes that this will have arisen for different reasons - in short patterns of affordability tend to be specific to the area in which they are occurring. Finally, the Review provides indicative estimates of the impact of increasing the supply of housing on medium to long term affordability.
The Review assesses land supply in response to demand. It notes that land supply may be limited for a number of reasons, including the requirements of the planning system alongside political opposition, attitudes of house builders and land owners, increasing complexity in developing brownfield sites as a result of environmental constraints. It notes recent population growth, partly as a result of net in-migration to Scotland, and the anticipated growth in household formation. It emphasises the need to not only increase the overall level of housing in Scotland, but to recognise the need for different types of housing in different locations.
Soil
Soil erosion is a continuing problem in Scotland and could be exacerbated by climate change. 15 There are concerns about reductions of organic soil matter, particularly through loss and drainage of peat, and soil sealing by the creation of impermeable surfaces, which can result in increased flood risk and depletion of ground water. Levels of industrial and chemical soil pollution and contaminated land have generally declined in Scotland, as a result of reclamation and decontamination and regulation of activities. Targeted regeneration in areas with the greatest levels of derelict and vacant land (Glasgow and North Lanarkshire) have accelerated this process further. 16
Linking with air pollution issues, acidification and nutrient enrichment continue to affect both soil and water resources (see below). SEPA reports that acidification is particularly problematic in upland areas (including the small areas of the Cairngorms, Galloway and the western and central Highlands), but that key pollutants, particularly sulphur dioxide, are now in decline. 17 However, biological recovery from acidification is slow and could be hindered to some extent by climate change as a result of the long timescales required. 18 Nutrient enrichment as a result of agricultural activity is also a continuing, but declining, problem for soil and water bodies in Scotland. 19
Water
Statistics compiled by Scottish Water 20 show that there has been a growth in un-metered demand for water, and that 48% of daily demand for water is lost in leakage from the system. Continuing growth in demand, combined with climate change, could put significant additional pressure on Scottish water supplies in the future. Water quality is also an important measure of environmental health and it is generally accepted that in Scotland this has been improving over the last two decades, and is good overall. More specifically, the length of poor or seriously polluted rivers in Scotland reduced by 34% between 1999 and 2005. 21 While this is encouraging, SEPA continues to work towards specific targets such as levels of compliance for licences issued under the Control of Pollution Act 1974, and diffuse pollution remains a problem. Further key issues include acidification and eutrophication as discussed in relation to soil above.
SEPA's recent reports on Significant Water Management Issues ( SWMI) for the Scotland and Solway Tweed River Basin Districts provide an up to date analysis of water quality issues under the requirements of the Water Framework Directive 22,23. For the Scotland RBD, it is currently predicted that almost one third of water bodies will not reach the required 'good ecological status' by 2015. It maps the sources of pressure in relation to water bodies at risk and shows the effects of urban development in generating diffuse source pollution that impacts on water bodies in and around most of Scotland's most urban areas, primarily in the Central Belt but also extending southwards into Ayrshire. Climate change adds a further dimension to the challenge of improving water quality, with potentially substantial reductions in ground water flows in the east of the country and increased water temperatures putting further pressure on their ecological status and increasing their susceptibility to pollution.
Flooding is a key aspect of the water environment that has particular relevance to planning for housing. Recent research 24 explored the social impacts of flooding in Scotland, and showed that there is variation in the nature and scale of effects from flooding events experienced by those living in different tenures of housing. These findings relate to the environmental justice agenda - for example, due to particularly high levels of stress and health impacts on lower income households, and lower levels of insurance associated with public sector housing. The report noted that many survey respondents felt that local authorities were contributing to future flooding problems by granting consent for developments in high risk areas.
SEPA has produced flood maps 25 which show an estimate of the areas of Scotland with a 0.5% (1:200) or greater probability of being flooded in any given year. This shows areas at risk of flooding by rivers and the sea and will help decision makers to understand flood risk when considering new development. The flood map is based on modelling to best present the data at a Scotland-wide level and is intended as an indicative tool which will be reviewed as and when further detailed local study data becomes available.
Climatic Factors
The long-term increase in temperatures in the UK and Scotland have accelerated over the past three years, showing that 'there is now evidence that human activities are having a discernable impact on the global climate'. 26 The UKCIP02 27 climate change scenarios predict that by the 2080's temperatures will rise by up to 3.5 o in the summer and 2.5 o in the winter, and that there will also be changes in precipitation, snowfall (up to a 90% reduction), seasonality, cloud cover, humidity, wind speeds, soil moisture, extreme weather (especially rainfall events) and seasons, and sea levels as a result of climate change. Spatial patterns of climate change within Scotland are predicted to vary. For example, summer rainfall is expected to reduce by 10% in most of the country except the northwest, and much more substantial increases in spring and autumn rainfall in the southwest and northeast of the country are envisaged.
Further evidence of Scottish climate change has been provided in research by SNIFFER. 28 This includes data showing a 25% reduction in frost days since 1961, a shorter snow season and a lengthened growing season. Many of these trends appear to be most significant in northern and western regions of Scotland.
Climate change could have many different impacts on wider aspects of the environment, including water resources and flooding, biodiversity, some of Scotland's key economic sectors (including tourism and agriculture), population, health and wellbeing. The SEPA State of the Environment 2006 29 report notes that climate change will accelerate if left unchecked, with major consequences. It also states that there is a real danger that CO2 levels and the use of fossil fuels could reach irreversible levels if action is not taken in relation to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
The Scottish Climate Change Programme 30 sets out the way in which Scotland intends to continue to contribute to the climate change agenda, through both demand and supply driven measures for mitigation, and increasingly in terms of adaptation. The programme notes that the residential sector is the largest energy consumer in Scotland and that this, along with transport, is one of the two sectors that has continued to experience energy consumption growth years. Energy efficiency initiatives have started to target housing, and this is a key area where the programme is seeking to influence individual behaviour. Household renewable energy generation is also being promoted, and there is a drive to improve the overall energy performance of homes, through building regulations.
Air
Air pollution can have repercussions for many aspects of quality of life, including human health and biodiversity. Targets set by the UK Air Quality Strategy have generally been met, including in relation to PM10, NO2 and SO2. However, there continue to be problems with reducing CO2 emissions (as noted in relation to climatic factors, energy and transport sectors). Record levels of ozone depletion were recorded over Scotland in 2005, with a 5% decline in stratospheric ozone recorded over the last 20 years. Ground level ozone levels are a growing problem and ozone has impacts on human health, irritating the airways of the lungs and increasing the symptoms of those suffering from asthma and lung diseases, and also affects plants. Annual mean trends for ground level ozone 31 indicate that on average the concentrations of ozone in rural areas appear to be showing a gradually increasing trend, perhaps related to the recent warm summers.
In Scotland key sources of air pollution include the energy sector, and transport. Whilst, many pollutants have decreased as a result of shift to unleaded fuel and the installation of catalytic converters in vehicles since 1990 ( e.g. 75% decrease in CO2 as a result of the latter, between 1990 and 2004), SEPA contend that the increase in vehicle use will offset any further gains achieved through reductions in emissions. Overall, although air quality in Scotland is improving, further measures will be required to avoid secondary impacts from air pollution on health, ecosystems and water quality 32.
Air pollutant concentrations vary across Scotland due to climate and geography 33. In general the north west is remote from this problem, but the more densely populated Forth and Clyde lowlands have the highest concentrations of poor air quality. Air Quality Management Areas ( AQMA) have been declared in Aberdeen City, East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh, Falkirk, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, Dundee and Perth and Kinross. A large proportion of these were designated in 2005/2006 partly reflecting better monitoring and tighter standards. There is significant variation in the extent of these areas from individual roads to the whole local authority area, as in Dundee.
Material Assets
Energy
Electricity generated from coal in Scotland declined between 2000 and 2004 (33% to 26%), but there was a slight increase in gas and oil output (22% to 26%) during the same period. Renewable sources accounted for 11.5% of electricity generated in Scotland in 2004; hydropower was the largest contributor at 8.9%. The Government's target of generating 18% of electricity from renewable sources by 2010 has already been met. Further work will be required to meet the target of generating 40% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020. In the meantime, the energy sector remains a key source of CO2 generated in Scotland, with emissions having increased by 8% since 1990, despite a decrease in combined greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland between 1990 and 2003, and an 8% decrease in CO2 generated overall. 34 Fuel poverty 35 is also a significant problem, with an estimated 286,000 homes falling into this category in 2002. It is estimated that this is likely to now be substantially higher (c.600,000) as a result of more recent energy price increases. 36
Energy consumption of the housing sector is already noted as a key issue to be addressed within the existing version of SPP3. The Energy Efficiency and Microrenewables Strategy (Consultative Draft, 2007) states that the energy efficiency of Scottish housing has improved considerably in recent years, but that more work is nevertheless required. It notes that the Sustainable Housing Design Guide provides advice to housing associations on reducing the carbon footprint of new and renewed housing stock.
Transport
Transport is the second largest generator of CO2 emissions in Scotland, with the emissions from road transport having grown from 9.28 million tonnes in 1990 to 9.97 million tonnes in 2005. This accounts for 29% of total energy consumption in Scotland, 99% of which is from non-renewable fuels. It is predicted that emissions from this source will rise further in the coming years, and that energy use by the air transport sector will rise substantially. Scottish Indicators of Sustainable Development confirm this, showing that other measures of transport sustainability emphasise the need for further action to reduce overall travel distance and achieve a greater shift away from use of the car for travelling to work. 37
Vacant and Derelict Land
The Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey 38 indicates that there was a total of 10,386 hectares of derelict and urban vacant land in Scotland in 2006. This reflects a substantial decline over the preceding decade, from more that 15,000 hectares in 1993, largely as a result of redevelopment, but also partly due to naturalisation of some areas. Much of the country's derelict and vacant land is concentrated in North Lanarkshire, Glasgow, Renfrewshire and Highland (with these areas together accounting for 44% of the total). Around one-fifth of the land has been derelict or urban vacant for more than 25 years.
Waste Management
SEPA monitors waste management, including the amount of waste which is sent to landfill. It also records the proportion of this that is Biodegradable Municipal Waste ( BMW), which contributes to air, soil and water pollution if sent to landfill, and is therefore a priority for reduction / recycling targets. The amount of BMW in Scotland has declined in recent years (estimated at 1.6 million tonnes in 2005), but further work will be required if targets set under the EU Landfill Directive are to be met (1.32 million tonnes by 2010, 0.88 million tonnes by 2013, and 0.62 million tonnes by 2020). Furthermore, the National Waste Plan aimed to ensure that 25% of municipal waste was recycled or composted by 2006, with available figures showing that this stood at 22.8% in 2005. 39.
SEPA monitoring 40 records that across all waste types during 2005/6, an estimated 22.22 million tonnes of controlled waste arose in Scotland, against 19 million tonnes in 2004/5. The breakdown of tonnages by waste type is: Household - 2.89 million tonnes; Commercial and industrial - 8.41 million tonnes; Construction and demolition - 10.60 million tonnes; Agriculture - 320,000 tonnes; Mines and quarries - no data available for 2005/2006. Each household in Scotland produced an average of 1,197 kg of waste in 2005/2006. This is an increase of 26 kg over the previous year and represents a growth rate of about 2%. The disposal of this waste breaks down as; Landfill 865kg, Recycled 207kg, Composted 98kg, Incinerated 27kg. Recycling targets in the National Waste Plan have been exceeded, with the 25% target comparing to an almost 27% achievement rate and the absolute volume of waste recycled by local authorities rising by 32%.
Notwithstanding the encouraging progress that has been made to date in relation to BMW, land use planning has a key role to play in facilitating development that is required to meet the particular challenges for sustainable waste management that are expected over the coming 3-5 years. A positive response should be provided that complements wider policies and projects within the Scottish waste management sector.
Cultural Heritage, including architectural and archaeological heritage
Scotland has four World Heritage Sites, 47,326 listed buildings and 628 conservation areas; 386 sites are identified in the 2007 Inventory of Gardens and Designed Landscapes. The actual extent of archaeological remains in Scotland is unknown, with 7882 Scheduled Monuments representing only a small proportion of the 129,000 sites and monuments for which there are records, and the many more unrecorded sites and unknown resources throughout the country. 41 The condition of protected and unprotected sites varies, with some 14.7% of Scheduled Monuments being recorded as being in unsatisfactory condition or having extensive significant problems, and 8.5% being at high or immediate risk of future deterioration, with a further 25.4% being at risk of deterioration within the next 5 years. 1036 listed buildings are currently recorded by the Scottish Civic Trust as being 'at risk'. Of 50,049 planning applications in 2005-2006, 7% also involved listed building or conservation area consent. Over the past few years at least 90% of these applications have been approved, and it is not currently known how many conditions relating to archaeological protection have been put in place alongside consents. 42
The historic environment can be threatened by inappropriate development (guided by short term aims), and economic decline, loss of viable use, population change and neglect. Land use change, including forestry activity, renewable energy, biomass projects and agriculture ( e.g. plough erosion) can also have significant repercussions for the historic environment. 43 In addition, natural features and processes can influence the robustness of Scotland's historic environment - for example coastal erosion, or burrowing animals, and these may be further exacerbated by climate change as it progresses. These issues are of relevance to both designated and non-designated sites. 44
Landscape
The European Landscape Convention states that landscapes across Europe are being transformed as a result of a number of factors, including settlement expansion, transport and infrastructure and the economy. 45
Collectively, the series of landscape character assessments prepared by SNH provides a useful snapshot of the characteristics of Scotland's landscapes, and this is translated to a strategic level in SNH's Natural Heritage Futures Statements. As part of this, SNH prepared a national assessment of Scotland's landscapes that sets out nationally significant resources, pressures and opportunities. 46 The report notes that landscapes are constantly evolving, but that forces for change vary between gradual natural processes and human activity that results in more pronounced and often negative change. Key challenges include land use change, incremental change arising from development and changes in perceptions.
The different qualities of regional landscapes are set out, and it is emphasised that some areas are much more vulnerable to specific types of change than others (for example, transitional landscapes, strategic transport corridors and so on). The Settlements Prospectus 47 within the Natural Heritage Futures series notes that although settlements cover only 3% of Scotland's land, they accommodate most of the population, with up to 90% of the land within them being used for housing. The prospectus outlines different influences on settlement character, from medieval town centres, through Victorian and Georgian suburbs to post war high rise flats and new towns. It states that 'nationally homogenous stand-alone housing' currently prevails as a key development-borne influence, and notes that land immediately surrounding our settlements tends to be 'ecologically impoverished'. High density housing developments, settlement consolidation and amalgamation, the growth of smaller rural and suburban settlements (particularly within commuter areas) and more housing in the countryside are all identified as key trends that influence landscape and biological quality.
Planning Advice Note ( PAN) 44 48 provides advice on fitting new housing development into the landscape. Paragraph 8 of the PAN notes that housing can have a major impact on environmental quality, and that new developments should reflect longstanding Scottish traditions of urban design and urban form that link closely with landscape character and capacity. However, the PAN also encourages improving design, stating that 'many new housing developments have been planned and carried out without evident regard to existing urban form and the local landscape, or to their wider visual impact particularly when seen from road and rail approaches'.
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