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DRIVERS OF CHANGE
77. To ensure that Scotland is equipped to respond effectively to the economic and social challenges of the next 25 years, it is necessary to consider what these challenges are likely to be and what can be done about them. This section identifies some of the key drivers of change and the issues which need to be addressed, while recognising the uncertainties inherent in any predictions about the future and the importance of retaining the flexibility to deal with the unexpected.
ECONOMIC STRATEGY
78. The primary purpose of the Scottish Government is to increase sustainable economic growth. The Government Economic Strategy ( GES) published in November 2007 makes clear that financial and other resources will be aligned to ensure that policy development and spending programmes are sharply focused on the delivery of that purpose and on achieving the challenging targets the Government is setting. To provide a clear focus for delivery, the Government has set the following strategic objectives:
Wealthier and Fairer: enable businesses and people to increase their wealth and more people to share fairly in that wealth;
Greener: improve the natural and built environment and the sustainable use and enjoyment of it;
Safer and Stronger: help local communities to flourish, becoming stronger, safer places to live, offering improved opportunities and a better quality of life;
Smarter: expand opportunities to succeed from nurture through to life-long learning, ensuring higher and more widely shared achievements; and
Healthier: help people to sustain and improve their health, especially in disadvantaged communities, ensuring better, local and faster access to health care.
This Framework will take forward the spatial aspects of the Government Economic Strategy, to ensure that each part of the country is able to play to its strengths in building a Scotland that is wealthier and fairer, smarter and greener, healthier, safer and stronger. Infrastructure development and place will be key priorities.
THE IMPORTANCE OF PLACE
79. The first National Planning Framework highlighted the importance of place to a modern knowledge economy. Businesses choose to locate where they can recruit well-educated, talented people and venture capital flows to places which have the sort of physical and social infrastructure which supports innovation. This dictates the ways in which places compete. Well-qualified, creative people are attracted to cities and regions which offer a variety of economic opportunities, a stimulating environment, amenities for a wide range of lifestyles and good connections to other high quality places. Successful places have strong, positive identities. They are cosmopolitan, well-connected and diverse, offering opportunities for a wide range of creative interaction. The environmental quality, built heritage and cultural life of Scotland's cities and towns are therefore strong economic assets and planning policies must place emphasis on promoting their quality and connectivity.
80. A positive sense of place is just as important in rural areas. As the rural economy changes, a high quality environment and a strong cultural identity will be key assets in promoting sustainable growth, economic diversification and community development. Key attributes of a competitive rural region include a diverse employment base and high activity rates; good physical and digital connectivity; high quality higher and further education provision; good public and private services; and strong, outward-looking communities with confidence in the future.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
81. Promoting sustainable development was one of the key objectives of the first National Planning Framework and there is a statutory requirement that subsequent Frameworks should contribute to sustainable development. The Government will publish further planning guidance on sustainable development in 2008. A report on the work currently underway to determine Scotland's global environmental footprint will also be published in 2008.
82. One of the principal challenges is climate change; reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to it and adapting to the changes in our environment which are already becoming apparent. Even with Scotland's ambitious targets for reducing emissions, some degree of climate change is unavoidable as past and present emissions will impact over the next 30 to 40 years. It is important that the planning of key infrastructure developments takes account of these impacts as well as potential emissions in order to ensure their sustainability.
83. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change recommends that a greenhouse gas threshold of 550ppm should not be breached and that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases should be reduced over time. Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions fell by more than 15% (from 17.6 to 14.9 MtC (million tonnes of carbon equivalent)) between 1990 and 2005. The main sources of emissions are energy supply, transport and business. Energy supply emissions have fallen by 10% since 1990. Business emissions have fallen by 22% over the same period, but transport emissions have risen by 11%. The spatial pattern of CO 2 emissions shows a marked correlation with the pattern of urban settlement (see Map 6).
84. The fossil fuels which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions are a finite resource. Some analysts predict that world oil production will peak before 2020. A growing imbalance between supply and demand for oil and gas products has profound implications for the future of transport and the global economy. Increasingly intense competition for available resources could drive up fuel prices substantially, heralding the end of the era of cheap travel and the patterns of development and business activity it has supported. These factors together with economic security considerations point to a strategy of reducing dependency on fossil fuels over time.
85. Substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will be necessary to minimise the impacts of climate change. Taking no action would have significant adverse effects on the environment and the lifestyles we enjoy at present. If global action is taken now, the worst of these effects may be avoided. The changes required to minimise climate change and mitigate its impacts may well affect our lifestyles, but they need not have negative effects on our overall quality of life. Indeed, they may bring substantial benefits in areas such as health and environmental quality.
86. The UK and Scottish Governments are taking an international lead by introducing ambitious statutory emission reduction targets through, respectively, the UK Climate Change Bill - with which the Scottish Government is fully engaged - and the Scottish Climate Change Bill. A key proposal in the UK Bill is the establishment of a Climate Change Committee. This expert body will advise on the optimum trajectory to 2050, the level of carbon budgets and on how much effort should be made by each part of the economy as well as reporting on progress.
87. Research indicates that temperatures in Scotland have risen more quickly over the last four decades than at any other time since records began. Parts of the country have also become much wetter. Since 1961, average rainfall has increased by almost 60% in the winter months in the north and west. Future climate scenarios produced by the UK Climate Impacts Programme suggest that wetter winters and warmer average temperatures are likely to continue. Scotland is also likely to experience increased minimum temperatures, less snow, a rise in sea level and a loss of species and habitats. Sea level could rise by as much as 60 cm by 2080 and impacts would be exacerbated by an increase in the frequency of storms and stronger tidal surges. There could be an increased risk of the disruption of port and ferry services, which could adversely affect remote and island communities, tourism, movement of cargo and international trade. Archaeological sites may be threatened by increased risk of flooding, rising water tables, higher sea levels and coastal erosion. On the other hand, the climate may become more favourable for tourism, forestry and certain types of agriculture. The Scottish Government will assess the challenges and opportunities of a changing climate and identify priority adaptation action required through its Adaptation Strategy, to be issued in 2008.
88. Climate change also poses challenges for the water environment and water infrastructure. The volumes of water available for hydro-power generation may increase, especially in the west. However, in the east there is an increased likelihood that summer droughts will lead to reduced water volumes but higher abstraction demands, particularly for agricultural irrigation. Competition for water is therefore likely to increase. There are also implications for water quality. Higher intensity rainfall will increase sewer overflow rates, leading to an increase in the discharge of sewage; and the lower summer river flows in the south and east will reduce the dilution of discharges, resulting in increased sewage treatment costs.
89. Sustainability is not just about reducing greenhouse gas emissions and creating better environments for people. It is also about conserving natural resources, including wildlife and habitats. As a result of climate change, areas which currently support particular species of plants and animals may become less suitable for them in the future. It may therefore be necessary to plan for the migration of species in response to climate change. Managed coastal retreat in response to rising sea levels may offer opportunities to create new wetland habitats.
PEOPLE AND HOUSEHOLDS
90. Recent years have seen a reversal of the trend of declining population in Scotland, primarily as a result of increased in-migration from Eastern Europe following enlargement of the European Union. The latest population statistics also indicate that for the first time since the 'baby boom' of the 1960's there has been a rise in fertility rates. Latest national projections published by the General Register Office of Scotland ( GROS) indicate that the population will rise to 5.37 million by 2031, before falling again to below 5 million in 2076.
91. As in many other European countries, the population is ageing markedly. The changing population profile has implications for the provision of a range of public facilities such as hospitals, schools and colleges. The number of people over 75 is projected to increase by 81% over the period 2006 to 2031. Planning must ensure that the implications of our changing demographic profile are fully reflected in the provisions for housing and community facilities. It can be anticipated that over the next 25 years there will be a growing number of older people who are no longer able to drive. This reinforces the need to ensure that essential facilities and services can be accessed locally, without the need to travel substantial distances.
92. The modest increase in the fertility rate (0.05%) is insufficient to counter the trend towards an ageing population, but it does highlight the need to ensure that social provision does not focus exclusively on the needs of older people. We also need to provide adequately for children and young people.
93. Sub-national population projections to 2024 - which will be updated in January 2008 to take account of the latest national population projections - indicate continuing growth in Eastern and Central Scotland and falls in population in Aberdeen and Dundee, parts of West Central Scotland and some of the remoter rural areas (See Map 7). The largest increases are forecast for West Lothian (+21%), Scottish Borders (+15%), East Lothian (+13%), and Edinburgh (+10%). Significant decreases are forecast for Aberdeen (-18%), Eilean Siar (-15%), Dundee (-14%), Inverclyde (-14%), East Dunbartonshire (-11%) and the Shetland Islands (-11%). The projected fall in Aberdeen can partly be attributed to outward migration across a tight city boundary. The population of Aberdeenshire is projected to increase by 5% over the same period.
94. The fortunes of many parts of the Highlands and Islands have turned round dramatically in recent years, with many areas experiencing a growth in population for the first time in generations. Substantial growth is taking place in Inverness and the Inner Moray Firth, but population is also increasing in Skye and Wester Ross, Orkney, Argyll, Moray and Lochaber.
95. In-migration of people of working age has reversed population decline in the short-term and is making a valuable contribution to Scotland's economy. Greater freedom of movement as a result of EU enlargement has created opportunities to attract and retain people with the skills and abilities needed to develop key sectors of the economy. Higher sustainable economic growth will help to retain and attract more people of working age.
96. While there is a risk that an ageing population could lead to lower activity rates, a less entrepreneurial society and skill shortages, more people are now able to lead an active life after the traditional career span. This offers scope for measures which make it easier for people to continue to participate in the economy beyond retirement age. There is also significant potential for improving on the relatively low activity rates in parts of West Central Scotland. The growing number of affluent and mobile pensioners will have implications for our transport systems.
97. The number of households is continuing to increase and that has implications for housing and infrastructure. There are also potential implications for energy demand and associated carbon emissions which will have to be taken into account. The average household size is projected to drop from 2.22 people in 2004 to just under 2 by 2024. Over the same period, the number of households is projected to increase by 13% to 2.5 million, an average of 14,800 additional households per year. These projections - based on 2004 population projections - will be updated in spring 2008 to take account of the latest, higher 2008 based population projections and are likely to indicate a higher rate of household growth over the period. The number of households headed by someone aged 85 or over is expected to double between 2004 and 2024.
98. In the 2004 projections almost all local authority areas show projected increases in the number of households over the period to 2024 (See Map 8). West Lothian is expected to see the largest increase (+34%). Edinburgh, the Scottish Borders, East Lothian and Fife all have projected increases of between 21 and 23%. Significant decreases in the number of households are forecast for Aberdeen (-6%) and Dundee (-5%).
99. These trends have important implications for development in the period to 2030. Increases in the number of households will translate into a requirement for additional houses, not all of which can be accommodated on previously developed land. Household projections do not identify the number of households that are prevented from forming through the absence of opportunity to do so. They are therefore likely to underestimate the number of households that could form over a given period. Moreover, population and household projections are based on extrapolation of past trends and should be regarded as indicative rather than as intimations of a predestined future. It is particularly important to note that the Government's aspirations for Scotland - reflected in targets for greater economic and population growth - imply higher overall household growth than current projections indicate. Planning for housing should reflect the need to accommodate this. The recoveries evident in areas as diverse as Glasgow and Skye point to the scope for turning round areas which have experienced substantial decline.
100. The planning system will need to ensure that the supply of land for new housing development in an area is adequate to meet the housing needs of that area in full and that the land is made available in good time, that new residential development is of a high standard and sustainable, and that there is adequate provision of physical and social infrastructure - affordable housing, high quality schools and services. It will also be important to ensure that the right houses are built in the right places, taking account of changing household composition.
REGENERATION
101. Realising the potential of people and places is at the heart of the Scottish Government's approach to regeneration. Successful regeneration demands a combination of economic development, housing and environmental investment, improved public services, improved workforce skills, support for community involvement, a commitment to environmental quality and good design; and respect for local identity and the historic features which contribute to it. Scotland has seen a substantial range of regeneration initiatives, many of which have been successful, but major challenges remain.
102. Although deprivation exists to some degree in all parts of Scotland, there are significant concentrations in the Central Belt and urban areas, with 34% of the most deprived areas in Glasgow, 9% in North Lanarkshire, 7% in Edinburgh and 6% in South Lanarkshire. There is significant deprivation in the former coalfield areas. Eilean Siar and parts of the Highlands and the South of Scotland have particular problems arising from poor access to services.
103. The Clyde Corridor, encompassing the major regeneration initiatives in the Clyde Gateway and along the Clyde Waterfront, is recognised as the national strategic regeneration priority. Given Glasgow's high share of concentrated deprivation, Clyde Corridor projects have the potential to impact positively on Scotland's overall levels of poverty and deprivation and make a substantial contribution to regional economic growth.
104. The Government is currently supporting 5 urban regeneration companies ( URCs) - Clydebank Rebuilt, Irvine Bay in North Ayrshire, Riverside Inverclyde, Craigmillar in Edinburgh and Raploch in Stirling. It is also working with Glasgow and South Lanarkshire Councils and their partners to establish a sixth URC to drive forward and deliver the regeneration of the Clyde Gateway (see Map 9). Each URC will operate for between 10-20 years. Between 2004 to 2008 the Government provided £66m to support the start-up of the companies and finance early strategic acquisitions.
105. The success of the Scottish Land Fund and its successor the Growing Community Assets fund, the Highlands and Islands Community Energy Company and the growing importance of social enterprise, illustrate the potential for stimulating regeneration activity on the back of community ownership and involvement. The move towards new powers for reformed community councils, including the power to direct a proportion of existing local spending in their area to meet local priorities, will help communities to regenerate themselves; while the Government's new strategic fund for targeted action to tackle poverty and deprivation will help to transform the prospects of deprived communities across the country. The Government intends to consult on extending to the whole of the country the services which HIE provides to facilitate community land purchase.
SCOTLAND IN THE WORLD
106. Raising Scotland's international profile is important to the realisation of the Scottish Government's five strategic objectives, in particular the wealthier and fairer objective, and the Government Economic Strategy. The Scottish Government will publish a new International Strategic Framework early in 2008, and for this to be effective we need to ensure that we have in place a spatial framework which is conducive to attracting high quality inward investment.
Europe
107. The Government is committed to an enhanced relationship with the European Union ( EU). This Framework is informed by the European Spatial Development Perspective ( ESDP), the EU territorial cohesion agenda and developing European practice in spatial planning, particularly in the Celtic, Nordic and Baltic countries.
108. Analysis of relative accessibility by the European Spatial Planning Observation Network ( ESPON) identifies the Central Belt of the Lowlands as the most accessible part of Scotland (see Map 10). Most of rural Scotland is classed as peripheral or very peripheral. Caithness and Sutherland and Shetland, Orkney and the Outer Hebrides are classed as extremely peripheral. With Europe's economic centre of gravity moving eastwards as a result of enlargement, maintaining and enhancing connectivity with the rest of Europe will be critical to Scotland's economic success.
109. The new European Structural Funds regime which came into effect in January 2007 reflects the EU's revised regional development priorities following enlargement. Scotland's position has improved relative to the EU average GDP as a result of enlargement. Consequently, the amount of structural funding coming to Scotland has reduced substantially. It is therefore now even more important to ensure that the use of structural funds is closely aligned to domestic spending priorities.
110. Under the new programme, funding streams have been established to support 3 objectives:
1. Convergence;
2. Competitiveness and Employment; and
3. Territorial Co-operation.
The Highlands and Islands will benefit from Convergence funding under a provision for regions with a per capita GDP greater than 75% of the EU-25 average but less than 75% of the EU-15 average. Competitiveness and Employment funding will be spent in the Lowland and Upland parts of Scotland. Some Objective 2 funding will be targeted on a spatial basis, depending on the priority within individual programmes (see Map 11).
111. Under the Territorial Co-operation Objective, support is being provided for cross-border, transnational and inter-regional co-operation. Scotland is covered by four of the seven European regions established by the European Commission as a framework for transnational co-operation and was a very active participant in the previous programmes. The whole of the country lies within the North-West Europe Region and parts fall within the North Sea and Atlantic Regions. Parts of the north and west also lie within the Northern Periphery co-operation zone (see Map 12). While the geographical boundaries of these areas have not changed greatly under the new framework, changes in the EU definition of state borders to include maritime borders has resulted in much of the western part of Scotland becoming eligible for funding to support cross-border co-operation with the Republic of Ireland. The Northern Periphery Programme has been extended to eastern Moray and Dumfries and Galloway (and to parts of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland). The focus on issues facing peripheral, sparsely populated areas remains.
112. The Scotland Rural Development Programme 2007-13 sets out Scottish Ministers' goals for sustainable rural development and the types of support that will be available from EU funds and other sources to help achieve these goals over the next 5 years. The programme will deliver a range of integrated schemes, including Rural Development Contracts.
United Kingdom
113. The Scottish Government will work with the UK Government, the Welsh Assembly Government, the Northern Ireland Executive and the English regions on spatial planning matters of common interest.
114. The first National Planning Framework identified the strategic route between Aberdeen and Newcastle as a key corridor and referred to opportunities to develop knowledge economy links based on the expertise associated with the energy and offshore industries and the universities of Aberdeen, Dundee, St. Andrews, Edinburgh and Newcastle. The Regional Spatial Strategy for the North East of England recognises the economic influence of the Edinburgh City Region on the North East of England and includes a commitment to improving accessibility and efficiency of movement along the East Coast corridor. The Scottish Government is holding discussions with public agencies and local authorities in the North East of England with a view to developing a strategic agenda for the East Coast Corridor.
TRANSPORT AND LAND USE
115. Scotland will have to address significant development pressures over the next 25 years, particularly on the east side of the country, where the population is growing and the number of households is increasing most rapidly. Investment in transport will be needed to enhance essential infrastructure, support urban expansion, improve access to facilities and services, facilitate sustainable economic growth, and strengthen international gateways for passengers and freight. There is a need to tackle congestion and improve public transport links between and within our cities. Improved connectivity can help unlock the potential of priority areas for regeneration such as the Clyde Corridor and Ayrshire, enabling more people to become economically active. Improvements in transport infrastructure are needed to support economic activity and improve access to facilities and services in our rural areas. It will be important to ensure that key locational decisions and the investments in transport infrastructure necessary to support them help to move us towards a more sustainable, low carbon economy.
116. Transport (excluding aviation) accounts for over 20% of Scottish greenhouse gas emissions and is the fastest growing contributor to emissions. Road transport is by far the biggest source of emissions from the transport sector. Heavy reliance on the private car and the trend towards greater mobility are contributing to climate change, growing congestion and the erosion of environmental quality. However, there is a strong public consensus in favour of action to reduce congestion and the environmental impacts of car use.
117. An important driver for transport policy in the immediate and long-term is the need to reduce emissions significantly. This will involve measures to improve accessibility to education, employment and services and to encourage a shift to more sustainable modes of transport. For people, this means a shift from car-based travel to walking, cycling and public transport. For goods, it means a shift from road to rail and water. The relationship between transport and land use is central to this agenda.
118. The promotion of compact settlements, mixed use development, functional walking and cycling networks and efficient public transport systems can play an important part in reducing the need for car-based commuting. However, as commuting levels are the outcome of individual decisions on household location relative to workplace, the impact of fuel prices on the cost of commuting is likely to be the most powerful determinant of change.
119. While the expansion of direct air links has dramatically improved Scotland's international connectivity in recent years, air travel is making a growing contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. A key issue over the next 25 years will be how to maintain and enhance this connectivity, with all the economic and other benefits that brings, while tackling the challenge of climate change.
120. Air passenger numbers are forecast to rise by 150% between 2004 and 2030 and Scotland's airports are planning for expansion to accommodate the additional passengers and planes. In the medium to long term, increases in the price of fuel could reduce the popularity of short-haul flights, particularly within Britain. This does not mean that people will want to travel less. The demand for holiday flights and long-haul flights to America, Australia and Asia is likely to continue as the economy grows, but flights for short and weekend breaks might become less popular. Faster cross-Border rail links would make the train more competitive with the plane for journeys to London and other cities in the UK, potentially helping to reduce emissions from short-haul flights. While the recent opening of the Eurostar terminal at St. Pancras offers opportunities for easier rail journeys between Scotland and the Continent, for the majority of overseas trips flying is likely to remain the only practical option.
121. While the trunk road network will remain the predominant means of moving freight for the foreseeable future, there is scope for moving a higher proportion by rail and water. The capacity of the rail network will need to be expanded to accommodate increasing freight and passenger traffic. New technologies can play a role by facilitating more intensive use of existing lines. Ports providing international freight and passenger links will need to be supported by an effective road and rail infrastructure. A growing proportion of freight is containerised and the number of containers handled by Scottish ports is increasing steadily. Container handing capacity will need to be expanded to accommodate the projected growth in this traffic over the next 25 years.
122. Waste, biomass and timber movements are of increasing significance. The closure of landfill sites can result in waste having to be moved further. Timber harvesting is set to increase to 2020 as our commercial forests mature. There will be a further peak in 2040 when the next crop reaches maturity. In many areas, access to plantations will need to be improved if the full economic benefit of this resource is to be realised. It is estimated that up to 25% of the commercial forest stock of the Highlands cannot be harvested economically because of access constraints. Increased levels of harvesting and the fact that biomass energy plants generally require to source fuel from beyond the immediate vicinity mean that movements of timber and other forest products will grow significantly. With appropriate improvements to infrastructure, more of this material could be transported by rail or water.
ENERGY PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION AND USE
123. Tackling climate change and reducing dependence on finite fossil fuels are two of the major global challenges of our time. More than two thirds of the world's CO 2 emissions are the product of current patterns of energy production and consumption. Growing demand in the rapidly expanding Asian economies is raising concerns about the implications for energy prices and long-term security of supply. Addressing these challenges will demand profound changes in the ways we produce, distribute and use energy over the next 25 years.
124. The European Union has responded by committing to 20% of energy use from renewable sources by 2020. The Scottish Government supports this objective and has in place its own, higher target for electricity generated from renewable sources. It also wants to see the development of technologies which derive clean energy from fossil fuels; the harnessing of renewable sources of heat; decentralised energy production, including local heat and power schemes and micro-generation; and continued improvements in energy efficiency.
Renewable Energy
125. The harnessing of renewable sources such as wind, waves, tides, water and the sun is effecting a radical change in Scotland's energy economy, and the location of these resources means that rural areas are well placed to contribute to and benefit from the development of that economy. As wave, tidal, biomass, hydrogen and deep water offshore wind technologies continue to develop, these sources will become more competitive and commercially attractive, allowing them to make large contributions to Scotland's energy mix over the next 25 years. Hydro-power and onshore wind are the renewable technologies likely to make the largest contributions initially. Biomass could be making a significant contribution by 2010 and marine technologies have the potential to make a major contribution in the longer term.
126. Scotland has one of the best environments not just in Europe but in the world for wave and tidal generation and, while the technology is not yet market-ready, the opportunities are enormous. Energy must be seen as a key economic resource. As the potential output of Scotland's renewable energy resources is several times greater than current Scottish consumption, the potential for export is substantial - and Scotland can also export energy technology.
127. Scotland now has a target of deriving 50% of electricity demand from renewable sources by 2020. Currently, Scotland has the built and consented capacity to generate 3.7GW of electricity from renewable sources (2.3GW from wind farms: 1.3GW from existing hydro schemes; and 0.1GW from new hydro developments). The 2020 target is equivalent to some 8GW and windfarm projects already under consideration could make a substantial contribution to meeting it. The Government's strategic environmental assessment of marine generation indicates that as much as 2.5 GW of marine generation may be possible within known environmental constraints. The Forum for Renewable Energy Development in Scotland ( FREDS) has estimated that some 0.44GW of electricity could be generated from biomass. Scotland's maturing forests have the potential to produce substantial quantities of wood-fuel.
128. The aim is to develop this extensive renewable energy potential while safeguarding the environment and communities. The Government is committed to developing and sustaining our energy industries, establishing Scotland as a leading location for the development of renewable energy technology and an energy exporter over the long term. It is encouraging a mix of renewable energy technologies, with growing contributions from offshore wind, wave, and tidal energy, and greater use of biomass. The potential of some of these technologies has a strong spatial dimension. For, example, the north and west coasts offer opportunities for harnessing the energy of tidal streams at locations which are well sheltered from ocean swells and prevailing winds, while the east coast presents opportunities for offshore wind. Information on environmental sensitivities will be important in selecting appropriate locations for development. The Scottish Government is therefore committed to following up its Strategic Environmental Assessment for marine energy with more detailed work.
129. There is probably very limited scope for new large hydro-electric projects in Scotland given their environmental impacts, but there is likely to be significant potential for more small scale schemes. A sub-group of FREDS will report on this shortly.
130. Given the variability of wind as a source of power, baseload generating capacity and pump storage will continue to have a role to play in maintaining the stability of electricity supply. A Government study is examining how much variable generating capacity can be accommodated by the existing grid. For the future, hydrogen fuel cell technology offers significant potential as a means of storing power from renewable sources, and could be used to smooth out variability.
131. The Fife Energy Park at Methil demonstrates the potential for adapting coastal facilities created to support the oil and gas industry to new uses related to the development of renewable energy. There may also be opportunities to site new renewable energy facilities where they can take advantage of the transmission capacity released by the closure of existing power stations.
132. Small-scale, community-based renewable energy projects can make a valuable contribution locally. They can play a vital role in supporting the sustainable development of remote rural and island communities in particular. Cumulatively, they can make a significant contribution to meeting Scotland's energy needs. Their local environmental effects will need careful management by the planning system.
Fossil Fuels
133. Clean coal technologies offer a long-term future for coal-based electricity generation and Scottish companies are world leaders in the field. The Scottish Government regards carbon sequestration as a potentially cost-effective method of reducing CO 2 emissions from thermal power stations. The regulatory regime will give signals which prompt proposals to create new thermal capacity as plans are made to retire existing plant. The Government considers that new plant should be sited at existing thermal generation locations where it can make use of existing supporting infrastructure.
134. The methane held in coal beds deep beneath Central Scotland is estimated to be equivalent to at least 10% of Scotland's gas demand for the next 25 years. Most of these coal beds are well located in relation to existing gas pipelines and, given their proximity to our main coal-fired power stations, there is potential for combining the extraction process with carbon capture. Planning authorities in Central Scotland should consider the potential for onshore gas extraction when preparing their development plans. As the pipe network required to facilitate gas extraction would extend across local authority boundaries, authorities may need to work together to develop a consistent planning policy framework.
135. The development of Atlantic oil and gas reserves may create requirements for further storage, treatment and support services on the Shetland Islands, the Outer Hebrides and the West Coast.
Heat
136. As a country with a cool temperate climate, about 50% of Scotland's energy demand is for heat. The main energy source for heating is currently gas, but there is considerable potential to get more heat from renewable sources such as the sun, biomass, waste and ground and air heat pumps, and to make use of the heat from electricity generation, industrial processes and anaerobic digestion. Many of these sources of heat can be harnessed at a domestic or community level, but some require larger scale operations. A sub-group of FREDS will report on renewable heat by the end of 2007.
WASTE MANAGEMENT
137. The Government believes we must aspire to a zero waste Scotland. It considers that to achieve zero waste we need to put a strong emphasis on waste prevention, reduce the amount of waste landfilled as far as is reasonably practicable, achieve high levels of recycling and composting and seek to ensure that any energy from waste plants that are built have high levels of efficiency through, for example, combined heat and power.
138. The EU Landfill Directive requires the amount of biodegradable municipal waste going to landfill to be reduced by 2020 to 35% of that produced in 1995. Landfill Tax will be set at a rate of £48 per tonne for active wastes by 2010. Additional facilities for the treatment of municipal, commercial and industrial wastes, other than by landfill, are therefore urgently needed. As the methane produced by landfill sites is a powerful greenhouse gas, reducing the scale of landfill helps combat climate change. The construction and operation of waste treatment facilities can also offer new economic opportunities.
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
139. Modern communications technologies are often seen as offering opportunities to reduce the need to travel, and therefore reduce CO 2 emissions. They have certainly made working from home a real option for some workers. The use of internet streaming and video-conferencing can reduce the need to make journeys for business purposes. Internet purchases can substitute for some shopping trips. However, some research on home working indicates that it may encourage less frequent but longer distance commuting or generate trips which would not otherwise have been made. Other evidence suggests that its main effect may be to allow greater flexibility over the timing of journeys rather than necessarily reducing their total number. People also value the social contact which work provides and there is a strong preference for a physical presence and face-to-face interaction for many business transactions. In addition, the growth in internet sales has led to the expansion of vehicle-based home-delivery services. The number of small vans on our roads rose almost 3 times faster than car and lorry traffic between 1995 and 2005, and they now account for about an eighth of all road traffic. There is currently no information on the impact of home working on overall energy consumption and carbon emissions, taking account of home heating and power. Whether the overall impact of new communications technologies on travel demand will be positive or negative is also far from clear. Any policy interventions must focus on applications which bring demonstrable benefits.
140. Increasing the use of carbon neutral and low or no-emission fuels can make a significant contribution to reducing the environmental impacts of moving people and goods. While there is considerable scope for expanding the production of biofuels, there are concerns about potential effects on biodiversity, food production, sustainable rural development and landscape character. Hydrogen fuel cell technology, although still at the early stages of development, offers Scotland many opportunities, most notably through its ability to capture and store energy from renewable sources.
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