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Target B:

Reduce the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, training or employment by 2008

SUMMARY EVALUATION

A4.55 The available data suggest that from a 2003 baseline there has a small increase in the proportion of young people who are NEET. However, there are wide confidence limits on the data, which mean that analysis of the actual trends is not possible. The actual proportion of young people who were NEET in 2005 is likely to lie between 12.7% and 15.4%.

A4.56 The data suggest that progress has varied by gender. Overall young men are slightly less likely to be NEET than in 2003, and young women are slightly more likely to be NEET than in 2003.

A4.57 Progress has varied by age. Young people aged 18 and 19 were more likely to be NEET in 2005 than in 2003. Young people aged 17 are less likely to be NEET, although the proportion of 17 year olds who are NEET rose between 2004 and 2005. There has been little overall change in the proportion of 16 year olds who are NEET.

A4.58 Since 2003 a higher proportion of the population of DDA disabled young people have become NEET, while the proportion of young people who are NEET and not DDA disabled has remained relatively constant. Overall, a much higher proportion of disabled young people are NEET than non-disabled young people.

A4.59 No data were available from LFS/ APS to undertake analysis of the proportions of young people NEET at a local area level, or the proportions of young people who are NEET disaggregated by ethnicity or faith.

WORK PROGRAMME AND POLICY CONTEXT

A4.60 Target B was announced in December 2004. The NEET strategy, More Choices, More Chances has been in place since June 2006. The NEET strategy is not a single policy but a strategic direction from the Executive that seeks to bring together the actions required to meet the CtOG Target. It also identifies NEET 'hotspot' areas where the proportions of young people NEET are higher than in other local areas. These are Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire, North Ayrshire, East Ayrshire, Clackmannanshire, Inverclyde and Dundee. Each of these local partnerships in these areas will receive £400,000 over two years i.e. in 2006/07 and 2007/08; other local partnerships in Scotland will receive £75,000 for two years.

A4.61 There is a range of other supporting activity. These include the recently launched Employability Framework, Workforce Plus, the National Priorities for Education, Better Behaviour: Better Learning, the Additional Support for Learning Act, Determined to Succeed, School/College collaboration, and Widening Participation in FE⁶. Other approaches, such as the Working For Families Fund and UK Welfare to Work programmes, aim to help those young people already NEET.

EVIDENCE

Aggregate Trends

A4.62 Up to 2003, the NEET figures were calculated using a combination of the four quarterly Labour Force Survey ( LFS) datasets for each year. From 2003 the LFS sample was enhanced to improve the reliability of estimates. These data suggest that from a 2003 baseline there has a small increase in the proportion of young people who are NEET, but that since 1998 there has been an overall decrease (Figure A4.7). Overall, there appears to have been little significant change over the last seven years.

A4.63 It is however important to note that these data have high confidence limits (shown above and below trend data below) and that actual proportion of young people NEET is therefore likely to lie between the upper and lower limits of 15.4% and 12.7% respectively.

Figure A4.7: Proportions of young people NEET by year

Notes: These data are based on a sample, which means that exact proportions will lie within the confidence intervals for the measure. In 2004 and 2005 the Scottish and UK figures are taken from the Annual Population Survey. The APS and ASLFS include boosts to the main LFS. This means there is a discontinuity in the series.

Source: Labour Force Survey

A4.64 The Scottish School Leaver Destination Survey also suggests that the proportion of school leavers who are NEET decreased between 2004/2005 (Figure A4.8). However, this decrease was only to levels similar to those in 1996/1997. Data were not available for school year 2005/06 to include in this interim CtOG analysis

Figure A4.8: Proportions of young people from publicly funded schools leaving school unemployed and not seeking education or training

Notes: Data on independent schools have not been included as numbers are too low to be meaningful. Upon the advice of the Scottish Executive analysis includes young people for whom destinations are unknown.

Source: Scottish School Leavers Destinations Survey

A4.65 DWP benefits data also provide a source of information on the numbers of young people NEET in Scotland. Between 2003 and 2005 there has been a slight fall in the numbers of young people claiming benefits in Scotland. In total in November 2003 16100 young people were claiming some form of welfare benefit, which had fallen to 15250 in November 2005. However, on their own these data are an imprecise measurement of the numbers of young people who are NEET, as many young people in this position may not be claiming benefit.

Trends Among Equalities Groups

Age

A4.66 Progress has varied by age. Young people aged 18 and 19 were more likely to be NEET in 2005 than in 2003 (Figure A4.9). Young people aged 17 are less likely to be NEET, although the proportion has of 17 year olds who are NEET rose between 2004 and 2005. There has been little overall change in the proportion of 16 year olds who are NEET.

A4.67 It is however important to note that these data have high confidence limits and that actual proportion of young people NEET is therefore likely to lie between the upper and lower limits, as shown on Figure A4.7.

Figure A4.9: Proportions of young people NEET by age and year 2003 - 2005

Notes: These data are based on a sample, which means that exact proportions will lie within the confidence intervals for the measure. In 2004 and 2005 the Scottish and UK figures are taken from the Annual Population Survey. The APS and ASLFS include boosts to the main LFS. This means there is a discontinuity in the series.

Source: Labour Force Survey.

Disability

A4.68 Young people who are DDA or work limiting disabled are much more likely to be NEET than young people who are not (Figure A4.10). The available data suggest that in recent years the proportions of DDA or work limiting disabled young people who are NEET has been increasing.It is however important to note that these data have high confidence limits and that actual proportion of young people NEET is therefore likely to lie between the upper and lower limits, as shown on Figure A4.7.

Figure A4.10: Proportions of young people NEET by whether or not they are DDA or work limiting disabled, 2003 - 2005

Notes: These data are based on a sample, which means that exact proportions will lie within the confidence intervals for the measure. The proportions of young people who are DDA disabled only, or work limiting disabled only, have not been included as they were below publication level. Data disaggregated by gender have not been included as they are only at reliable levels for 2005.

Source: Labour Force Survey.

A4.69 Benefits data suggest that in 2005 there may have been slightly fewer young disabled people who were NEET than in 2003 (Figure A4.11). In 2005 there were proportionally fewer young people on Incapacity Benefit than in 2004, however this was only a slightly lower proportion than in 2003. Similarly in 2005 a slightly higher proportion of young benefit claimants were receiving JSA than IB.

Figure A4.11: Proportions of young benefit claimants aged 16-19 in Scotland claiming particular benefits

Source: DWP benefits data

Ethnicity

A4.70 There are no available data that can be analysed by ethnicity, as sample sizes are below reliable levels. The NEET Strategy recommends that the data gap around the ethnic profile of the NEET group is Scotland is addressed. The NEET Target Owner believes, based on research on the NEET profile in England, that young people from ethnic minority groups may have a higher chance of being NEET than the general population, but is not aware of any evidence from Scotland on NEET incidence by ethnicity.

Faith Groups

A4.71 The only available data that can be analysed by faith document the proportion of young people identifying as Christian and no religion. Sample sizes for other faith groups are below reliable levels. Analysis has not been undertaken due to the limitations of the data. The NEET Target Owner has no view on whether likelihood of being NEET is influenced by faith, and is not aware of any evidence on the topic. However the Scottish Executive looking at ways to identify whether or not young people are NEET because of reasons of faith.

Gender

A4.72 Since 2003 the proportion of young men who are NEET has slightly decreased, and the proportion of young women who are NEET has slightly increased (Figure A4.12). When data from 1996 are considered this trend becomes more pronounced, with the fall in the proportion of young men who are NEET becomes more evident, and the lack of change in the proportion of young women who are NEET also clearer.

Figure A4.12: Proportions of young people NEET by year and gender 1996-2005

Notes: These data are based on a sample, which means that exact proportions will lie within the confidence intervals for the measure. In 2004 and 2005 the Scottish and UK figures are taken from the Annual Population Survey. The APS and ASLFS include boosts to the main LFS. This means there is a discontinuity in the series.

Source: Labour Force Survey.

Age and Gender

A4.73 In 2003 a higher proportion of 18-year-old young men were NEET than 18-year-old young women (Figure A4.13). However, since then the proportions of young 18 year old men and women have remained similar.

Figure A4.13: Proportions of 18 year olds NEET by year

Notes: These data are based on a sample, which means that exact proportions will lie within the confidence intervals for the measure. In 2004 and 2005 the Scottish and UK figures are taken from the Annual Population Survey. The APS and ASLFS include boosts to the main LFS. This means there is a discontinuity in the series. Data are available by age and gender for young people aged 18 and 19. Data for 16 and 17 year olds are below reliable levels.

Source: Labour Force Survey.

A4.74 A higher proportion of 19-year-old women were NEET than young 19-year-old men (Figure A4.14). However, during 2004 and 2005 the proportions of young 19-year-old men and women who are NEET have remained similar.

Figure A4.14: Proportions of 19 year olds NEET by year

Notes: Data are available by age and gender for young people aged 18 and 19. Data for 16 and 17 year olds are below reliable levels.

Source: LFS

A4.75 Scottish School Leavers Survey data show that a lower proportion of school leavers were NEET in 2004/05 (Figure A4.15). They also show that more young men leave school to NEET status than young women, but that between 2003/04 and 2004/05 the reduction in incidence of NEET was greater for young men than for young women. Data for 2005/06 are not yet available.

Figure A4.15: Proportions of school leavers NEET by year and gender

Notes: Data on independent schools have not been included as numbers are too low to be meaningful. Upon the advice of the Scottish Executive analysis includes young people for whom destinations are unknown.

Source: Scottish School Leavers Destinations Survey

A4.76 There are no available data that can be analysed by sexual orientation. The NEET Target Owner does not have a view on whether NEET status is impacted by sexuality, and is not aware of any evidence on the topic.

Local level change

A4.77 Using DWP benefits data at a local authority level there is clearly variation in the numbers of young people who are NEET (Table A4.41). As discussed above there has been a slight overall decrease in the numbers of young people aged 18-19 claiming benefits in Scotland. However, at a local level change has been move varied, with numbers increasing in some areas, and decreasing in others.

Table A4.41: Total numbers of young people aged 18-19 claiming benefits in Scottish local authorities Nov 2003-2005

Source: DWP benefits data

A4.78 Table A4.42 shows what proportion of the overall Scottish population of young people claiming benefits are resident in each local authority area. In 2005 in areas including Aberdeen, Argyll and Bute, Stirling and North Lanarkshire there a proportionally fewer young people were claiming benefits than in 2003. However, the proportion of Scotland's young benefit claimants residents in other areas were therefore inevitably higher. Areas where there have been increases since 2003 include West Dunbartonshire, West Lothian and the Scottish Borders.

Table A4.42: Proportions of the population of young people aged 18-19 claiming benefits resident in each Scottish local authority

Source: DWP benefits data

A4.79 There has also been local level variation in the types of benefits that young people are claiming, with the proportions on JSA rising in some areas, while other areas show rises in the proportions of young people claiming IB. These data are provided in full in the data annex to this analysis.

A4.80 There are no Equalities Group data that can be considered at a local level.

DATA ISSUES

A4.81 Target B will have been achieved if ' Labour Force Survey ( LFS) data for 2008, compared with LFS data for 2003 shows the percentage of young people who are NEET has reduced'. However, there is acknowledgment of the possibility that 'any changes in the NEET group may not be captured using the LFS as the measure is not sensitive enough to reflect small changes'. This is due to 'a degree of uncertainty around the estimates', which are based on a sample of the population. True values will lie between the confidence intervals for the measures. The limitations of the LFS also mean that survey data are not available for several of the Equalities Groups (see below).

A4.82 Destinations of Leavers from Scottish Schools data are available from 1996/97 and have been disaggregated by gender from 2002/03. Data for 2005/06 have now been published but were not available in time for inclusion in this analysis. These data only allow for annual comparisons based on young people's activities during a single month, meaning that they cannot be used to track change over time. However, the Executive is confident that given the 100% coverage of the dataset there is 'reasonable security that movements over time would reflect real changes' ⁷. At a local level, the best available measure is the number of young people claiming out of work benefits. Both sets of data are being used to monitor ongoing progress towards the Targets.

A4.83 The measure devised for the NEET Strategy involves a detailed analysis and will provide a more accurate understanding of the proportions of young people NEET in Scotland. However, time series data for this measure are not yet available, so at present change cannot be analysed. There is also a difficulty in assessing progress against Target B, as complete LFS data are only available for 2003-2005 and Destinations of Leavers from Scottish Schools data are only available up until 2004/05. Only benefits data are only available until November 2005. At present, the impact of the Closing the Opportunity Gap upon the proportions of young people in Scotland who are NEET is therefore hard to discern.

A4.84 The calculations used to determine geographical targeting in the NEET strategy are much broader than the LFS. They include measures for school attendance rates, exclusion rates and survey data from the Scottish School Leavers' Destinations survey ⁸. Towards the end of CtOG it would be feasible to undertake analysis of change at a local area level based upon this measure.

A4.85 The NEET Strategy proposes the development of a national administrative database of young people who are NEET, which would greatly improve the data available on this group of young people. The strategy also includes the recommendation that in the interim data from the Scottish School Leavers Destination Survey and DWP benefits data are used to measure change at a local level.

A4.86 Local level Targets will be developed for each of the identified NEET hotspot areas. These will draw upon Destinations of Leavers from Scottish Schools data and DWP benefits data. At present the Targets are not developed, but as CtOG progresses will provide local level indicators of change.

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