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Target A:

Reduce the number of workless people dependent on DWP benefits in Glasgow, North & South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire & Inverclyde, Dundee, and West Dunbartonshire by 2007 and by 2010

SUMMARY EVALUATION

A4.04 There have been significant reductions in the numbers of people claiming workless benefits in the CtOG Target areas. These areas all demonstrate strong progress, although there is some variation between them. However, these reductions are not yet extensive enough to enable the overall CtOG Target to be met.

A4.05 The number of women claiming workless benefits is reducing at a slower rate than the numbers of workless men, although there are more men claiming workless benefits. Reductions are greatest for people aged 34 and under, with reductions for those in the 45-49 age band extremely limited.

A4.06 There is a predicted decrease in the numbers of disabled people claiming workless benefits, but this is a more limited decrease than for the population claiming workless benefits overall. Among disabled people the decreases are predicted to be bigger amongst men than women. By 2010 for people aged 45-49 there may be slight increase in the proportion of people claiming disability benefits. No data are available by ethnicity, faith or sexuality.

INTERPRETATION OF TARGET A

A4.07 In monitoring this Target, the Scottish Executive has counted an individual as "workless and dependent on DWP benefits" if they are in receipt of "unemployment related benefits", Incapacity Benefit or Income Support. To identify the number of individuals in receipt of the relevant benefits, data from the DWP's Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study ( WPLS) has been used, except in the case of the Glasgow area, for which Jobcentre Plus Benefit Caseload Database has been used.

A4.08 However, the research team believes that to properly reflect the number of people who are workless and dependent on DWP benefits, the definition should include all people of working age who are not in paid employment and are in receipt of DWP benefits, including, in particular, SDA claimants, and male claimants aged 60-64 receiving Pension Credit only ⁵. Moreover, the size of this population should be measured using WPLS data, not JCP data, as only the former meets National Statistics standards (the Statistics Commission recommends that data meeting these standards should be used whenever possible). This evaluation has therefore been carried out using this revised definition, in the belief that this interim evaluation report provides a suitable opportunity to revise definitions according to best practice.

A4.09 Nevertheless, the research team recognises the need for the Scottish Executive to be able to compare progress towards Target A using these revised definitions with progress towards Target A according to the old definition, both for Glasgow individually (with its different baseline and data source), and for all the CtOG areas combined. Therefore, a comparison of the figures is thus included below in the section entitled 'Projection Comparisons'.

WORK PROGRAMME AND POLICY CONTEXT

A4.10 Target A was announced in July 2004. The Target will have been met if by 2010, compared with the baseline data on 31 August 2004, the combined agreed targets for each of the areas identified has been achieved. This Target will be monitored using data on working age workless benefits, in particular Incapacity Benefit, Jobseeker's Allowance and Income Support.

A4.11 Various supporting strategies and initiatives are in place to enable achievement of the Target. In 2004/5, £104m was made available to the most deprived communities through the Community Regeneration Fund ( CRF). This supports the Regeneration Outcome Agreements ( ROAs) developed by Community Planning Partnerships ( CPPs). The funding was for a wide range of initiatives that included setting targets for getting people into work.

A4.12 In Summer 2006, the Executive launched Workforce Plus, Scotland's Employability Framework. The framework identifies agreed targets for reducing the number of people dependent on work-related benefits in the CtOG priority areas. It also provides additional funding of £11 million up to 2007-08 for Target employability areas to implement local action plans. These will be taken forward by local employment partnerships made up of key agencies including NHS Boards, Local Enterprise Companies and local authorities.

A4.13 The wide range of other strategic work to support the Target includes the Jobcentre Plus run New Deal and Pathways to Work programmes, European Social Fund ( ESF) supported programmes; and Working for Families, providing affordable and accessible childcare in six of the seven CtOG Target areas. Prior to its demise, it also included One Plus, the lone parent mentoring service in the Glasgow area.

EVIDENCE

Trends in Workless Caseloads Using Aggregate Measures since 1996

A4.14 Figure A4.1 illustrates the trend in workless caseloads since 1999 - a linear trend downward of approximately 1,855 fewer workless claims per quarter. This trend, were it to continue, would yield a reduction in workless caseloads of 19,539 from August 2004 to March 2007 and a reduction of 41,821 from August 2004 to March 2010.

Figure A4.1: Projected reduction in workless caseloads (based on 1999-2006 data)

Source: DWP benefits data

Trends in Workless Caseloads Using Aggregate Measures Disaggregate by Local Authority since 1996

A4.15 Table A4.1 provides a breakdown of these projected caseload reduction for Dundee City, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire.

Table A4.1: Projected reductions in caseloads for workless benefits by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Trends for Individual Benefits Disaggregated by Local Authority since 1996

A4.16 Table A4.2 to Table A4.5 illustrate a further breakdown of projected reductions in caseloads for JSA, IB, Lone Parents and Other IS recipients in Dundee City, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire.

Table A4.2: Projected reductions in JSA caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.3: Projected reductions in IB caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.4: Projected reductions in Lone Parent caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.5: Projected reductions in Other IS caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Trends in Workless Caseloads Using Disaggregated Measures of Individual Benefits Since 1996

A4.17 On the basis of the projections in Tables A4.2 through A4.5, a shortfall of 10,461 from the March 2007 target for workless benefit claims is predicted. There is also a predicted shortfall of 24,179 from the 2010 target.

A4.18 However, workless benefit caseloads have fallen more rapidly in recent years, and projections based on data from 2003 to 2006 yield greater predicted falls in workless benefit claims. Figure A4.2 illustrates the trend in workless caseloads since 2003 and shows a more pronounced linear trend downward of approximately 2,486 fewer workless claims per quarter.

Figure A4.2: Projected reduction in workless caseloads (based on 2003-2006 data)

Source: DWP benefits data

A4.19 This trend, were it to continue, would yield a reduction in workless caseloads of 25,570 by March 2007 (4,430 short of the Target) and a reduction of 55,463 by March 2010 (10,537 short of the Target).

Trends in Workless Caseloads Using Disaggregated Measures Individual Benefits Disaggregated by Local Authority since 1996

A4.20 Table A4.6 illustrates a breakdown of these projected reductions in caseloads for Dundee City, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire.

Table A4.6: Projected reductions in caseloads for workless benefits by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from February 2003 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Trends in Individual Benefits Disaggregated by Local Authority

A4.21 Tables A4.7 through A4.10 illustrate a further breakdown of projected reductions in caseloads for JSA, IB, Lone Parents and Other IS recipients in Dundee City, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire.

Table A4.7: Projected reductions in JSA caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from February 2003 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.8: Projected reductions in IB caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from February 2003 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.9: Projected reductions in Lone Parent caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from February 2003 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.10: Projected reductions in Other IS caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from February 2003 to May 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.22 Different local authorities are predicted to have different levels of reduction in caseload toward 2010. Based on the data from August 1999, Dundee City is predicted to have a drop of 6.82% to March 2007 and a drop of 14.56% to March 2010. The predicted percentage drops to March 2007 and March 2010 for the other Local Authorities are: Glasgow City (8.84% and 18.86% respectively), Inverclyde (5.16% and 10.4% respectively), North Lanarkshire (9.16% and 19.73% respectively), Renfrewshire (8.59% and 18.61% respectively), South Lanarkshire (8.77% and 18.46% respectively), West Dunbartonshire (6.6% and 15.4% respectively).

A4.23 Predicted falls to 2007 and 2010 are larger when they are based on the data from February 2003. In the case of Dundee City the predicted drop increases to 6.86% and 14.67% respectively. For the other local authorities the predicted falls are: Glasgow City (10.54% and 22.73% respectively), Inverclyde (12.88% and 28.13% respectively), North Lanarkshire (12.03% and 26.2% respectively), Renfrewshire (13.65% and 30.07% respectively), South Lanarkshire (11.98% and 25.62% respectively), West Dunbartonshire (8.88% and 20.29% respectively).

Trends Disaggregated by Gender I: based on 1999-2006 Data

Aggregate Trends

A4.24 As with the general trend, caseloads for workless men and women on benefits show an overall downward trend since August 1999, and a more pronounced downward trend since February 2003 (Figure A4.3). For both men and women there is a linear trend downward, with approximately 1,095 fewer male claimants per quarter and approximately 761 fewer female claimants per quarter. While there are fewer workless women on benefits than workless men, but the downward trend for workless women has not been as steep as for workless men.

Figure A4.3: Projected reductions in workless men and women by March 2007 and March 2010 (based on 1999-2006 data)

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Trends Disaggregated by Local Authority

A4.25 On the basis of the trends since 1999, analysis suggests an expected reduction in workless men claiming benefits of 11,068 from August 2004 to March 2007 and a reduction of 24,227 from August 2004 to March 2010. The greatest predicted reduction is in Glasgow City (Table A4.11).

Table A4.11: Projected reductions in workless men by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due to the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.26 A slightly smaller reduction is predicted for women (Table A4.12). On the basis of this trend, a reduction can be expected in workless caseloads of 8,468 from August 2004 to March 2007 and a reduction of 17,604 from August 2004 to March 2010 (Table A4.12). Again, the greatest predicted reduction is in Glasgow City.

Table A4.12: Projected reductions in workless women by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due to the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Trends Disaggregated by Gender II: based on 2003-2006 Data

Aggregate Trends

A4.27 Figure A4.4 illustrates the trend in workless men and women on benefits since 2003.

Figure A4.4: Projected reductions in workless men and women by March 2007 and March 2010 (based on 2003-2006 data)

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.28 For both men and women there is a linear trend downward, with approximately 1,517 fewer male claimants per quarter and approximately 969 fewer female claimants per quarter (Figure A4.4). On the basis of the trend since 2003, there is an expected reduction in male benefit claimants of 15,012 from August 2004 to March 2007 and a reduction of 33,259 from August 2004 to March 2010 (Table A4.13). This is greater than predicted reductions based upon trends since 1996.

Trends Disaggregated by Local Authority

Table A4.13: Projected reductions in workless men by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from February 2003 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due to the application of disclosure control.

Source:DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.29 On the basis of the trend since 2003 there is an expected reduction in women claiming workless benefits of 10,552 from August 2004 to March 2007 and a reduction of 22,201 from August 2004 to March 2010 (Table A4.14). Again, while the predicted reduction is greater than that calculated using trend data from 1996, it is not as steep as the predicted reduction for workless men.

Table A4.14: Projected reductions in workless women by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from February 2003 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due to the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Trends By Benefit Type Disaggregated by Gender

A4.30 Table A4.15 shows the projected reductions in workless benefit claims for men and women.

Table A4.15: Projected reductions in workless benefit caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for men and women do not add up to the Scotland total in the table. This is due to the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.16: Projected reductions in JSA claims by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for men and women do not add up to the Scotland total in the table. This is due to the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.17: Projected reductions in IB claims by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for men and women do not add up to the Scotland total in the table. This is due to the application of disclosure control

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.18: Projected reductions in Lone Parent claims by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for men and women do not add up to the Scotland total in the table. This is due to the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.19: Projected reductions in Other IS claims by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for men and women do not add up to the Scotland total in the table. This is due to the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.31 DWP's Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study provides caseload data for the working age population, disaggregated into the following age bands; under 18 (or 16-17 in the case of JSA data), 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-49, 50-54,55-59 and 60-64. These data have been used to consider projected reductions for workless people of different ages. As with the general trend, benefit caseloads for workless people of different ages show an overall downward trend since August 1999, and a more pronounced downward trend since February 2003.

Trends Disaggregated by Age

A4.32 Figure A4.5 illustrates the trends in caseload numbers for workless people of different ages - based on data since 1999. The downward trend in workless benefit claims is more pronounced in certain age groups than in others. The downward trend for the '25-34' age group is most pronounced, with those in the '35-44' age band also exhibiting a noticeable downward trend compared to the other age groups. The '45-49' age band exhibits barely noticeable downward trend over the period August 1999 to May 2006.

Figure A4.5: Projected reductions in worklessness for people of different ages (based on 1999 - 2006 data)

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.33 Table A4.20 shows estimated average quarterly reductions in caseloads for different age bands, based on projections from the 1999 to 2006 data. The table shows the change in the caseload over the period as both a number and a percentage, along with the estimated average quarterly change, based on the linear trend.

Table A4.20: Reduction in caseloads for different age bands - based on projections from 1999 to 2006

Note: The combined totals for the various age bands may not add up the totals shown in Table A4.1 or Table A4.15. This is due to rounding to the nearest ten and the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.34 It is clear from this analysis that the most notable fall in the numbers on workless benefits has been for those in the '25-34' age band, where numbers were down 20,650 in the period from August 1999 to May 2006. Although the percentage change for the 'under 18' age band is also high, the reduction is only of 1,130 from a very small base. The '45-49'age band has seen the smallest fall in the numbers on workless benefits over the period, only 460 from a starting point of 25,790. The main reason for this is that the numbers on workless benefits in the '45-49' age band actually rose steadily until February 2003, topping out at 26,770 before starting to fall. Averaged out over the period and based on the linear trend, this equates to just one less person per quarter on workless benefits.

A4.35 Tables A4.21 to A4.28 illustrate predicted reductions in worklessness among the various age-bands.

Table A4.21: Projected reductions in workless people under 18 years old by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.22: Projected reductions in workless people 18-24 years old by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.23: Projected reductions in workless people 24-34 years old by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.24: Projected reductions in workless people 35-44 years old by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.25: Projected reductions in workless people 45-49 years old by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.26: Projected reductions in workless people 50-54 years old by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.27: Projected reductions in workless people 55-59 years old by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.28: Projected reductions in workless people 60-64 years old by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.36 Figure A4.6 illustrates the trends in caseload numbers for workless people of different ages - based on data since 2003.

Figure A4.6: Projected reductions in worklessness for people of different ages (based on 2003 - 2006 data)

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.37 Figure A4.6 illustrates - and as was seen earlier in Figure A4.5 - the downward trend in workless benefit claims is more pronounced in certain age groups than in others. Table A4.29 shows estimated average quarterly reductions in caseloads for different age bands, based on projections from the 2003 to 2006 data. The table shows the change in the caseload over the period as both a number and a percentage, along with the estimated average quarterly change, based on the linear trend.

Table A4.29: Estimated average quarterly reduction in caseloads for different age bands - based on projections from 2003 to 2006

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study

A4.38 It is clear from that the '25-34' age band has seen the most notable fall in the numbers on workless benefits, down 10,430 in the period from May 2003 to May 2006. (Once again the percentage change for the 'Under 18' age band is high, but from a very small base). As with the August 1999 to May 2006 data, the '45-49' age band is projected to yield the smallest fall in the numbers on workless benefits over the period February 2003 to May 2006, only 1,440 from a high point of 26,770. While better than the trend for August 1999 to May 2006, the fall in numbers on workless benefits in the '45-49' age band is still the lowest of all the age bands at -5.4% or on average 111 fewer people per quarter.

A4.39 Tables A4.30 to A4.34 illustrate a further breakdown of these figures into JSA claims, IB claims, Lone Parent claims and Other IS claims.

A4.40 It is interesting to note that in the case of the '45-49' year old age band the trend overall is downward, but that this is due to projected reductions in JSA and IS claims. For IB and Lone parent claims the projected trend is upward, with an additional 105 IB claims by March 2007, and an additional 578 IB claims by March 2010. Claims for Lone Parent benefit are also projected to be higher in 2007 and 2010 by 96 and 247 respectively.

Table A4.30: Projected reductions in workless benefit caseloads by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for age bands may not add up to the total shown. This is due to the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.31: Projected reductions in JSA claims by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for age bands may not add up to the total shown. This is due to rounding to the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.32: Projected reductions in IB claims by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for age bands may not add up to the total shown. This is due to rounding to the nearest ten and the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.33: Projected reductions in Lone Parent claims by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for age bands may not add up to the total shown. This is due to rounding to the nearest ten and the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.34: Projected reductions in Other IS claims by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined totals for age bands may not add up to the total shown. This is due to rounding to the nearest ten and the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.41 Tables A4.35 and A4.36 disaggregate the data for women and men. There is a predicted decrease in the numbers of people claiming IB, but this is a much smaller projected decrease than for those claiming workless benefits as a whole. Predicted decreases are greater for men than for women.

Table A4.35: Projected reductions in IB claims among men by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due to rounding to the nearest ten and the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.36: Projected reductions in IB claims among women by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from August 1999 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due to rounding to the nearest ten and the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.42 Projected IB claims for various age bands are shown from in the data annex. In general, projections are still downward though, although some bands show projected increases, especially in the March 2010 projections.

A4.43 2003 to 2006 data show similar, if more pronounced, downward trends to those seen in the 1999 to 2006 data. For both men and women, trends are downward (Table A4.37 and A4.38). For those in different age bands they are mostly downward, although as with the earlier data in some areas the projected trend is still upward.

Table A4.37: Projected reductions in IB claims by men by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from February 2003 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due to rounding to the nearest ten and the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

Table A4.38: Projected reductions in IB claims by women by March 2007 and March 2010 - based on linear trends from February 2003 to May 2006

Note: The combined local authority totals do not add up to the seven authority/Scotland total in the table. This is due to rounding to the nearest ten and the application of disclosure control.

Source: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study.

A4.44 Data for ethnicity was requested but was not available, and so this has had to be excluded from the analysis. The Workforce Plus working group has found that there are specific differences in work patterns amongst ethnic minorities and they found some marked differences and that would be generally true. They also discovered the patterns of occupation and worklessness varies very considerably by ethnicity. The Target Owner thinks that it is likely that in Glasgow there will be an action plan for producing outcome data by ethnicity.

A4.45 No data are available by sexuality. The Target Owner is not aware of any evidence on whether employment status is impacted by sexuality. No data are available by faith. The Target Owner is not aware of any evidence on whether employment status is impacted by faith.

PROJECTION COMPARISONS

A4.46 As discussed above, this evaluation of Target A:

• defines as "workless people dependent on DWP benefits" some individuals who are not counted as such by previous Scottish Executive analysis of Target A
• uses only WPLS data (and no JCP data) to estimate the size of this group of people in the relevant areas.

A4.47 As a result, the projections of progress towards Target A by 2007 and 2010 presented above differ from projections recently calculated by the Scottish Executive, as shown in the Tables below (Table A4.39 and Table A4.40).

Table A4.39: Comparison of projected reductions in caseloads for workless benefits by March 2007 and March 2010 - all CtOG areas

Table A4.40: Comparison of projected reductions in caseloads for workless benefits by March 2007 and March 2010 - Glasgow

A4.48 The tables show that both for Glasgow individually (Table A4.40), and for the CtOG areas combined (Table A4.39), the projected reduction in caseload is greater when using the Scottish Executive's original data sources and definitions than when using the research team's recommended revised data sources and definitions. The differences appear to be almost entirely due to a difference between WPLS figures and JCP figures of approximately 16,000 in the caseload for Glasgow; this higher starting figure results in a steeper projected decline in numbers (see the section on data issues below), exacerbated in the Glasgow case by the earlier baseline previously used.

A4.49 While the revised definitions and data sources used in this report suggest a smaller decline in the number of workless people dependent on DWP benefits than previous measures, it must also be recognised that they suggest a smaller overall population of workless people dependent on DWP benefits in the CtOG areas.

DATA ISSUES

A4.50 All data used for the above evaluation of Target A is sourced from the Department for Work and Pensions' Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study. Individuals have been defined as "workless and dependent on DWP benefits" if they are of working age, are not in paid employment and are in receipt of DWP benefits. This population has been estimated by counting the number of people of working age (including men aged 60-64) who fall into one of more of the following DWP categories:

• Job Seeker (claimant on Jobseekers Allowance)
• Incapacity Benefits (claimant on Incapacity Benefit or Severe Disablement Allowance)
• Lone Parent (claimant on Income Support with child under 16 and no partner)
• Other Income Related Benefit (claimant on Income Support or Pension Credit)

A4.51 There may be circumstances in which an individual who is workless and dependent on DWP benefits is not counted in any of these groups, for instance, if they are not claiming all the benefits for which they are entitled. The number of such people is likely to be very small, but it is for this reason (and also because the WPLS is subject to cleaning and matching procedures) that the figure is referred to as an estimate.

A4.52 There is a large difference between the Glasgow JCP figures previously used to estimate the workless population by the Scottish Executive, and the Glasgow WPLS figures. This could be due to a number of factors, but the most likely are that: the JCP Glasgow area may have different geographical boundaries to the DWP Glasgow area; people in receipt of more than one benefit may be counted twice in the JCP database, as there is no standard screening procedure to remove double claimants from the database, as there is with the WPLS. Based on past experiences, the research team is not surprised to find such a large discrepancy between the two data sets. Given the significantly higher levels of quality control used for the WPLS, and the acknowledgement by National Statistics that it is the more reliable data set, the research team feels that the WPLS figures must be considered the more reliable.

A4.53 There are extensive data available for analysis of progress towards Target A. Quarterly DWP benefits data enable analysis of progress towards the Target. In comparison to some other Targets the quality of data available is high. In this analysis trend data since 1996, and since 2003 are presented separately.

A4.54 For ethnicity, faith and sexuality equalities data are limited. Local level monitoring could improve data availability.

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