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Target G:

By 2007 ensure that at least 50% of all "looked after" young people leaving care have entered education, employment or training

SUMMARY EVALUATION

A4.188 The data indicate that overall there has been no significant progress in relation to this Target from the 2004 baseline. It is difficult to assess variations in relation to equalities groups due to the small numbers of these within the population of young people who have ceased to be looked after; however, it appears that young people with a disability are less likely than others to be in employment, education or training. This, of course, reflects a broader pattern in society generally.

A4.189 The proportion of children who are looked after in Scotland has been rising steadily since 2000 and in 2006 was the highest since 1982 (Figure A4.34).

Figure A4.34: Percentage of children and young people in Scotland who are 'looked after', 1971 - 2006

Source: Scottish Executive Looked After Children 2005-06/ Statistics Publication Note

A4.190 Of the young people who were reported to be entitled to aftercare support who were still in touch with the local authority as at 31 ^st March 2006, the economic activity of 23 per cent was unknown. Approximately 37 per cent of young people receiving aftercare in 2006 whose economic activity was known were in education, training or employment. Of those with a known economic activity, 15 per cent were in education; 22 per cent were in employment or training; 5 per cent were not in education, training or employment due to illness or disability; 7 per cent were looking after their family, and 51 per cent were not in education, employment or training (Table A4.47).

Table A4.47: Percentage of care leavers in employment, education or training, 2003 - 2006

Sources: Scottish Executive CtOG Target G website: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/Social-Inclusion/17415/CtOG-targets/ctog-target-g ; Scottish Executive (2006). Looked After Children 2005-06; Scottish Executive (2004). Children's Social Work Statistics 2003-04http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/10/20121/45472 ; Scottish Executive (2003) Children's Social Work Statistics 2002-03http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2003/10/18459/28599

WORK PROGRAMME AND POLICY CONTEXT

A4.191 Target G was announced in December 2004. It relates to those young people who have ceased to be looked after at school leaving age or older, from residential accommodation, foster care, or a supervision order at home. Young people can choose to leave care from age 16, although they are encouraged to remain in care until 18. They are entitled to receive aftercare support until their 19 ^th birthday, and between the ages 19-21 local social services can choose to provide support if the young person requests it.

A4.192 Evidence shows that young people leaving care are more likely to have poorer educational, health, employment and housing outcomes than other young people ²⁶. CtOG Target G will be met if, by 31 ^st March 2007, over 50 per cent of all looked after young people leaving care, whose economic activity is known, have entered education, employment or training.

A4.193 The key legislation underpinning this Target is the Children (Scotland) Act 1995. The Scottish Executive's Partnership Agreement includes a commitment (number 179) to 'continue to improve and develop the services provided for those leaving care to ensure that services, including mentoring and befriending, continue to be available beyond the age of 16.' New regulations and guidance on Supporting Young People Leaving Care Came into force on 1 ^st April 2004 with the intention of reducing the number of care leavers who do not have formal support ²⁷. Under these regulations, local authorities have the duty to provide comprehensive throughcare and aftercare services for care leavers, including providing them with a full assessment of their needs and ensuring that they can access support services. The Scottish Executive provided an additional £10 million over three years to support local authorities to prepare for and implement these regulations. Core funding for the Scottish Throughcare and Aftercare Forum ( STAAF) has been provided up to March 2010 to provide information and disseminate good practice in this area.

A4.194 This Target is related to all measures in pursuit of CtOG Objective 2: to improve the confidence and skills of the most disadvantaged children and young people - in order to provide them with the greatest chance of avoiding poverty when they leave school and will promote equality and inclusion. In particular, it is closely related to CtOG Target B - reduce the proportion of 16-19 year olds not in education, training and employment by 2008 - and the related ' NEET' strategy for young people: More Choices, More Chances. In addition, the Target relates to CtOG Target F - increase the average tariff score of the lowest attaining 20 per cent of S4 pupils by 5% by 2008 - and associated actions.

EVIDENCE

Age

A4.195 Target G and associated policy is directed at 16-21 year olds. There is no evidence that different age groups within this are differently affected in relation to the Target (Figure A4.35) ²⁸.

Figure A4.35: Economic status of young people receiving aftercare services, by age, 2006

Source: Scottish Executive Looked After Children 2005-06. Statistics Publication Note.

Notes: East Renfrewshire, Scottish Borders, Midlothian and Aberdeenshire did not provide information in time for inclusion. 2004-05 figures for these authorities have been incorporated into this table, but do not include young people aged 19-21. Data supplied by Aberdeen City and Edinburgh may be incomplete. Data supplied by North Ayrshire and Eilean Siar include young people who left care in 2005-06 only. All figures in this table should therefore be understood as estimates that are likely to be lower than the true figure, and caution should be used when using the figures.

Disability

A4.196 Of young people who are reported to be entitled to aftercare support and with a disability in 2006, 22 per cent were in employment, education or training compared to 41 per cent of comparable young people with no disability (Table A4.48). There is no data available to explore trends over time for this group.

Table A4.48: Economic status of young people receiving aftercare services, by disability, 2006

Source Scottish Executive Looked After Children 2005-06. Statistics Publication Note.

Notes: East Renfrewshire, Scottish Borders, Midlothian and Aberdeenshire did not provide information in time for inclusion. 2004-05 figures for these authorities have been incorporated into this Table, but do not include young people aged 19-21. Data supplied by Aberdeen City and Edinburgh may be incomplete. Data supplied by North Ayrshire and Eilean Siar include young people who left care in 2005-06 only. All figures in this Table should therefore be understood as estimates that are likely to be lower than the true figure, and caution should be used when using the figures.

Ethnicity

A4.197 There is no evidence to indicate whether different minority ethnic groups have different outcomes in relation to the Target . This is largely due to very small numbers of young people from minority ethnic communities receiving aftercare support.

A4.198 Research conducted in England has concluded that white young people fared worst in terms of placement instability, early departure from care, poor educational outcomes, homelessness, and risk-taking behaviour. Young people from asylum-seeking households demonstrated considerable resilience and determination, and were reported to be doing particularly well in education ²⁹. However, the different demographic profile in Scotland makes direct comparisons with these findings problematic.

Faith / Religious Belief

A4.199 The CLAS return does not collect information on faith or religious belief; therefore no analysis of these issues is possible.

Gender

A4.200 A higher number and proportion of males than females are receiving aftercare services (Table A4.49): boys and men made up 49 per cent of all looked after young people in 2006, girls and young women 43 per cent (the gender of 8 per cent was unknown). There is limited evidence on the differential economic and educational outcomes for males and females leaving care.

Table A4.49: Young people receiving aftercare services by gender and economic activity, 2006

Source: Scottish Executive (2006) Looked After Children 2005-06. Statistics Publication Note. Table 1.21

Notes: East Renfrewshire, Scottish Borders, Midlothian and Aberdeenshire did not provide information in time for inclusion. 2004-05 figures for these authorities have been incorporated into this Table, but do not include young people aged 19-21. Data supplied by Aberdeen City and Edinburgh may be incomplete. Data supplied by North Ayrshire and Eilean Siar include young people who left care in 2005-06 only. All figures in this Table should therefore be understood as estimates that are likely to be lower than the true figure, and caution should be used when using the figures

A4.201 There is evidence from research in England of a high rate of pregnancies among female care leavers: one study suggested that almost half of young women become mothers within 18 to 24 months of leaving care, and clearly this has a significant impact on their ability to pursue employment and education opportunities ³⁰. There is no directly comparable evidence for Scotland.

Sexual orientation

A4.202 The CLAS return does not collect information on sexuality; therefore no analysis of this factor is possible.

Trends at local area level

A4.203 Data is available on the number of young people eligible for aftercare support and the proportions of these in employment, education and training for different local authorities. These data show that the percentage of young people (for whom the economic status is known) who have left care and are in employment, education or training ranged from 90 per cent in the City of Edinburgh to 22 per cent in East Dunbartonshire and West Lothian in 2006. However, the small numbers for some authorities and incomplete returns suggest that caution is required in interpreting this data.

DATA ISSUES

A4.204 Information on this Target is gathered through the annual Children Looked After Survey. This data was collected for the first time in 2003. Figures for each financial year are published the following Autumn.

A4.205 Local authorities should know the education, employment and training status of those leaving care over school age up to 19 years of age, including the number of moves they make, and any periods of homelessness. In addition, authorities should track and keep in touch with young people leaving care up to age 21 for whom they continue to provide a service. However, this is difficult to achieve in practice, and data on young people who have left care is incomplete. Data is not available for those young people who ended their relationships with their social workers after leaving care: 15 per cent of young people reported to be entitled to aftercare were not in touch with the local authority on 31 ^st March 2006. ³¹ This is an improvement from 2005, when social work departments were no longer in touch with 25 per cent of care leavers eligible for aftercare support, and 2004 when the figure was 23 per cent ³².

A4.206 As neither local social services nor the Scottish Executive know what happens to those care leavers who do not stay in touch with their social workers or key worker, Target G applies only to those care leavers whose economic status is known, which was approximately 60% of all care leavers at March 2006 (Figure A4.36).

Figure A4.36: Number of care leavers - known and unknown economic activity, 2003 - 2006

Sources: Scottish Executive CtOG Target G website: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/Social-Inclusion/17415/CtOG-targets/ctog-target-g ; Scottish Executive Looked After Children 2005-06. Statistics Publication Note, Table 1.20

A4.207 It is possible that a proportion of those care leavers who are not in touch with social workers are in employment, education or training, but it is impossible to estimate the extent to which this is the case. It is possible that none of the care leavers who are not in touch with social workers are in employment, education or training and that the estimated percentage of young people in employment, education and training is vastly overestimated. It is also possible that the exact opposite it true and that young people in gainful employment feel no need to keep in touch with the local authority.

A4.208 Data returns from local authorities to the CLAS are incomplete; for example, four local authorities did not provide any data in 2006, and a further four provided incomplete data. Consequently, all CLAS figures regarding aftercare should be used with caution ³³. In addition, the total number of young people in and leaving care in Scotland in the course of a year is relatively small, which means that sub-group analyses are either limited or not possible.

A4.209 Some changes to CLAS and other data sources are already underway to enhance analysis and possible comparisons. For example, from 2007 the educational attainment of looked after children will be conducted by linking social work looked after children data with data provided by the Scottish Qualifications Authority, so that more appropriate and direct comparisons may be made between the attainment of looked after and other young people. This is currently carried out by data collected direct from schools, but there are a few issues with gathering accurate information with regards the looked after status from schools. Also, the feasibility of carrying out additional analysis of the educational qualifications achieved by looked after children to see if these young people achieve qualifications a little later in life, rather than at the end of compulsory education is to be considered.

A4.210 The Scottish Executive sought to develop an improved system of local authority monitoring of looked after young people by piloting the collection of individualised statistics for each child and young person in care. However, difficulties were experienced during this pilot with the number and quality of returns from local authorities. The Scottish Executive is currently working with Local Authorities and IT providers to make individualised data collections possible in the future.

A4.211 While this remains a CtOG Target, an effective means of measuring the relevant issues and variations in outcomes for different groups (as far as small population sizes allow) is required, irrespective of the known difficulties encountered in collecting reliable data from local authorities through CLAS. Improving the quality, comprehensiveness and robustness of CLAS data should be the first priority before considering new or additional data sources.

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