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Target F:
Increase the average tariff score of the lowest attaining 20 per cent of S4 pupils by 5% by 2008
SUMMARY EVALUATION
A4.162 The average tariff score of the lowest attaining 20 per cent of pupils in 2002/03 was 53, compared to a national average tariff of 168. The most recent average tariff score of the lowest attaining 20 per cent is 51, compared to a national average of 170 (based on 2004/05 data). The available data therefore suggests that there has been a slight fall in the average tariff score for the lowest 20 per cent of S4 pupils, although there are certain limitations with this data. Overall, there has been no positive trend in this measure in recent years. Indeed, because attainment among S4 pupils generally increased up to 2004/05, the difference in educational attainment between the lowest attaining 20 per cent and all S4 pupils has widened in recent year. These data pre-date CtOG.
WORK PROGRAMME AND POLICY CONTEXT
A4.163 Target F was announced in December 2004. For this Target to met, the national average tariff score for the lowest performing 20 per cent of S4 pupils must increase by 5 per cent from the baseline of 30 th September 2004, which refers to pupil results for 2002/03; i.e. the average of the lowest quintile must increase from 53 to 56 points by 2008.
A4.164 The Target is included in the National Priorities in Education20 planning and reporting framework. In addition, the Ambitious, Excellent Schools21 and Curriculum for Excellence22 programmes introduced a range of reforms, including a review of the curriculum to increase flexibility and developing personalised learning, improved support for pupils through the Education (Additional Support for Learning) (Scotland) Act 2004, and requiring joint working between education and children's services agencies through Integrated Children's Services Planning (see CtOG Target E). The Scottish School (Parental Involvement) Act, 2006 introduced measure to strengthen parents' opportunities to become involved in their child's education and school.
A4.165 As secondary education is a universal service, there are no particular or separate measures to deal with any distinctive circumstances or additional needs of minority or equality groups, nor those in deprived areas per se. To the extent that pupils from such backgrounds require particular attention or support, they are provided for by the measures in the Additional Support for Learning Act and other policies aimed at increasing attainment among lower performing pupils
A4.166 A number of other CtOG Targets and related activities complement and contribute to Target F. These include:
- Target B - Reduce the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, training or employment by 2008
- Target E - By 2008 ensure that children and young people who need it have an integrated package of appropriate health, care and education support
- Target G - By 2007 ensure that at least 50% of all 'looked after' young people leaving care have entered education, employment or training
- Target J - promote community regeneration of the most deprived neighbourhoods, through improvements in employability, education, health, access to local services, and quality of the local environment.
EVIDENCE
A4.167 The availability of data on trends in the relative educational attainment of S4 pupils from different equalities groups and minority populations varies. It is known that boys, pupils with additional educational needs, certain minority ethnic groups, and those receiving free school meals are all below the national average. However, for other groups there is no data available to indicate whether they are significantly more likely to be among the lowest attaining 20 per cent, nor whether this likelihood has changed since this Target was set.
Figure A4.28: Average tariff scores of S4 pupils, 1998/99-2004/05
Source: SQA and School Census data
Note: excludes pupils in special schools.
Disability
A4.168 There is no separate data on pupils in the lowest attaining 20 per cent with a disability. Under the Additional Support for Learning Act, all Education Authorities are required to identify, meet and keep under review the additional support needs of all pupils, including those who are disabled, so that they receive the particular support they require. Therefore, disabled children are included among pupils with additional support needs and a corresponding Individualised Educational Plan ( IEP) or Record of Needs (RoN). A RoN is provided for a child who has 'pronounced, specific or complex special educational needs which require continuing review', while IEPs are written plans setting targets that a pupil with special educational needs is expected to achieve 23.
A4.169 Only a small proportion of pupils with IEP / RON are represented in the lowest attaining 20 per cent, and this has not changed considerably in recent years (Figure A4.29). In 2002/03, 9 per cent of pupils with a RoN / IEP were in the lowest quintile; in 2003/04 the figure was 12 per cent, and in 2004/05 also 12 per cent. However, according to analysis conducted by the Scottish Executive, the proportion of pupils with an IEP or RoN in the lower attaining group is four to five times higher than in the cohort as a whole. This includes 'looked after' children; a higher proportion of whom are among the lowest attaining 20 per cent at S4. Research also indicates that there is a link between deprivation and some types of special educational needs 24.
Figure A4.29: Composition of lowest 20 per cent of pupils by RoN / IEP, 2002/03 - 2004/05
Source:SQA and School Census data
Ethnicity
A4.170 In 2005, 95 per cent of pupils in primary and secondary schools across Scotland were white. Consequently, analyses of S4 attainment by different ethnic minority groups is limited by the small numbers of several minority populations. It is difficult to draw firm conclusions about the differential educational outcomes of minority groups, and there is no data which allows analysis of the ethnic composition of the lowest attaining S4 quintile.
A4.171 However, information on average S4 tariff scores for different minority ethnic groups is available. Figures for 2004/05 show that Asian Chinese, Mixed and Asian Indian pupils have a higher average S4 tariff than White UK pupils (Figure A4.30). Asian Pakistani pupils have the same average as White pupils; and Asian Other, Asian Bangladeshi, Black African, Black Caribbean, Black Other, and 'All Other Categories (which includes Gypsy and Traveller pupils) all have lower averages than White UK pupils. Asylum seeker pupils and those from Refugee households have significantly lower average tariffs (131 and 118 respectively).
A4.172 No discernable pattern inequality over time can be identified for small minority ethnic groups as their attainment figures vary greatly year on year due to a lack of comparable data, the small numbers of pupils, and a focus on attainment only at S4. There is no evidence in Scotland of patterns in differential educational attainment similar to those identified in England and Wales by the Department for Education and Skills ( DfES) and Ofsted.
Figure A4.30: Average tariff score of S4 pupils, by ethnicity, 2004/05
Source: Scottish Executive Statistics Publication Notice, Education Series(2006) SQA Attainment and School Leaver Qualifications in Scotland: 2004/05.
Note: 'All Other Categories' includes: Occupational Traveller, Gypsy/Traveller, Other Traveller and 'Other' Categories. The number of pupils refers to the total number of S4 pupils from the last three years, average tariff score refers to the average score of all of these pupils. Averages calculated from small numbers may be misleading.
Faith/Religious Belief
A4.173 S4 attainment data cannot be broken down by the faith of individual pupils. However, it is possible to compare pupils attending denominational (Roman Catholic) and non-denominational schools. It should be noted that pupils attending denominational schools in Scotland are not necessarily Catholic, e.g. a number of Muslim parents send their child to denominational schools, and some pupils in Catholic schools are of no professed faith. The data shows no significant difference in attainment levels between such schools.
Gender
A4.174 There is a higher proportion of boys in the lowest attaining 20 per cent group than in the population as a whole, and this is a long-standing pattern (Figure A4.31). Both the Scottish School Leavers' Survey on Gender and Low Achievement (2000), and Scottish Executive Interchange 70 report Gender and Pupil Performance (2001) identified persistent gender differentials in low attainment, with the latter study noting that girls have been outperforming boys in school examinations in Scotland since 1981. This difference should be seen in the context of increasing overall attainment among both boys and girls in recent years.
Figure A4.31: Composition of lowest 20 per cent of pupils by Gender, 2002/03 - 2004/05
Source:SQA and School Census data
Sexual orientation
A4.175 There is no quantitative data available on difference in pupil performance in relation to sexuality, and the Scottish Executive believes that data collection in this area through existing sources would be practically and ethically problematic. However, the Scottish Executive has funded research and analysis undertaken by LGBT Youth: Guidance on Dealing with Homophobic Incidents (2006) which explores how homophobia in school relates to educational attainment.
A4.176 Representatives of lesbian, gay bisexual and transgender ( LGBT) organisations in Scotland interviewed for this evaluation believed that LGBT young people are over-represented among socially excluded groups. In particular, these interviewees suggested that LGBT young people may leave school earlier to escape a homophobic environment, and consequently acquire fewer qualifications than they would otherwise have gained. Currently there is no independent verification of this view.
Trends at local area level
A4.177 The Scottish School Leavers' Survey On Gender and Low Achievement (2000) concluded that social background and area characteristics remained the strongest predictors of low educational attainment. In fact, the average S4 tariff score has been used as an indicator of education deprivation in the most recent Scottish Indices of Multiple Deprivation. In 2003/4, 17 per cent of all mainstream school pupils lived in one of the 15 per cent most deprived areas in Scotland ( MD15%); however, over 34 per cent of pupils attending special schools lived in these MD15%.
A4.178 Average tariff scores at S4 are considerably and consistently lower in the 15 per cent most deprived areas than in the rest of Scotland; for example, in 2002/03, the average tariff score in the MD15% was 122 compared to 168 across Scotland as a whole. In 2003/04, the corresponding figures were MD15% - 122; rest of Scotland - 170. This difference in attainment between the 15% most deprived areas and the whole of Scotland is equivalent to two Standard Grades at award 3. There is no evidence that this difference in attainment has altered over time.
A4.179 In addition to having a lower average, a high proportion of the lowest achieving quintile of S4 pupils come from deprived areas: about one third of these pupils live within the 15 per cent most deprived areas (Figure A4.32). While there are more pupils living in these areas generally, nevertheless, it is also the case that a higher proportion of the lowest attaining pupils live in the most deprived areas. For example, there is approximately twice the expected proportion of low performing pupils in the 5% most deprived areas of Scotland.
Figure A4.32: Lowest performing pupils atSQAlevel by deprivation, 2002/03 (%)
Source: Social Focus On Deprived Areas, 2005. Chart 5.13
Note: Data are shown for pupils with known data zones only.
A4.180 8,594 S4 pupils were registered for free school meals in 2005; 14 per cent of all S4 pupils. Pupils from the 15 per cent most deprived areas in Scotland are more likely to be registered for free school meals than those from other areas: 45 per cent of pupils in the MD15%, receive free school meals compared to 11 per cent in the rest of Scotland (Figure A4.33). Although a minority within the lowest attaining S4 group, pupils registered to take free meals are twice as likely to be in this quintile than those who do not receive free school meals. There has been no significant change in this pattern in recent years.
Figure A4.33: Composition of the lowest 20 per cent of S4 pupils by eligibility for free school meals, 2002/03 - 2004/05
Source: SQA and School Census data
DATA ISSUES
A4.181 There are two intrinsic problems with the Target as an effective measure of the opportunity gap. Firstly, as the Target sets a measure of improvement from a baseline within the lowest 20 per cent of S4 pupils, it would in principle be possible to achieve it while the gap between them and the rest of S4 pupil population increased. Indeed, this is likely to happen if the attainment level of the highest performing 80 per cent of pupils increases above the rate of any future increase in the average attainment of the lowest performing 20 per cent.
A4.182 Secondly, as it is based on the average tariff score of the lowest 20 per cent, it would also be possible to accomplish this Target if the higher attaining pupils within this quintile increased their scores (thereby raising the average) while the lowest section of the quintile fell relative further behind.
A4.183 There are well established sources of information about the attainment of secondary school pupils in Scotland. The two main data sources used to assess attainment and progress towards this Target are Scottish Qualifications Agency ( SQA) information on attainment in National Courses, and data from the School Census. The SQA allocates a score to all of its National Courses using a Unified Points Score scale. Tariff scores are calculated by allocating points to each level of qualification and award pupils have gained 25. For example, Standard Grades are converted into points, ranging from 38 for a Standard Grade one, to 11 for a Standard Grade five, and 3 for a Standard Grade seven.
A4.184 There are two important factors to note about the data. First, the calculation of the average tariff score of the lowest attaining 20 per cent is made in April/May of each year, based upon the achievements of pupils beginning S4 in the September of two years previously (following completion of the examinations appeals process). The latest available data was published in April 2006 (referring to September 2004), and evaluation of the Target in 2008 will be based on attainment of pupils in S4 in the 2006/07 academic year. Second, the current tariff score scale does not recognise achievements in individual National Qualifications units that are not part of full courses, and it does not take account of other award bearing courses and the wider achievements of pupils ( e.g. Duke of Edinburgh awards). Consequently, while tariff scores may be a useful proxy for identifying the characteristics of lower attaining pupils, they neither recognise nor measure the achievement of some pupils with additional support needs and alternative learning accomplishments.
A4.185 The tariff score of the lowest attaining 20 per cent of pupils has been built into the national School Improvement Framework. As a result, Local Education Authorities have set their own local targets towards this aim; however, data on these are not centrally collated.
A4.186 This Target is relatively well catered for in terms of data availability. Future Scottish Executive Education Department statistical publications should include further disaggregated analyses of the composition of the lowest attaining 20 per cent of S4 pupils in relation to those equality and disadvantaged groups of interest to the CtOG strategy, such as those living in the most deprived areas, and looked after children.
A4.187 Consideration is currently being given within the Scottish Executive to measures to include in the future tariff score calculations forms of educational achievement not currently counted. Proposals to track S4 pupils to S5 and beyond to assess subsequent developments in education and eventual outcomes are also being considered by the Scottish Executive. It is recognized that some pupils in the lowest quintile at S4 may achieve more positive educational and employment outcomes than would appear from the snapshot offered by tariff scores in a single year.
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