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CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSIONS
INTRODUCTION
6.01 The CtOG strategy operates at three levels: three general Aims, six intermediate Objectives and ten specific Targets. Analysis of the progress made and impact of the strategy must distinguish between these different levels, and any summary evaluation of the CtOG programme as a whole must be qualified by recognising the variation that exists between them. Progress is more apparent for some Targets than others, and assessment of progress towards several Objectives, Aims and Targets is inhibited by the limitations of the available data. Nevertheless, allowing for these points, the following discussion summarises the impact of CtOG at different levels, and some further measures required for future analyses.
AIMS
6.02 Overall levels of poverty in Scotland are falling. However, these reductions are not experienced evenly across all equality groups and cannot, at this point in time, be attributed to CtOG.
6.03 Subsequent evaluations will be better placed to ascertain the extent to which CtOG has effected or otherwise altered the pace of change in the reduction of poverty rates.
OBJECTIVES
6.04 Evidence of progress towards CtOG Objectives is limited. The scope of the six Objectives means that a wide range of up to date evidence is required to undertake a full assessment of progress. At this stage, adequate information is only available to make a complete assessment of progress for Objective 5. Limited data are available for Objective 1, and baseline data are for Objectives 2, and 6. However this interim evaluation has made progress in baselining potential sources for future reporting to consider.
6.05 Objective 1 aims to increase chances of sustained employment for those facing greatest disadvantage, as a means of enabling people to permanently move out of poverty. The lack of data available has meant that this interim evaluation has only been able to consider rates of movement into employment by workless people. It has not been possible to assess whether these jobs are sustained, nor whether they enable people to move permanently out of poverty. The availability of data will improve in the future. The data that are currently available show that rates of employment have not improved over the CtOG programme, suggesting that progress in other aspects of the Objective may also be limited.
6.06 Objective 2 sets a target of improving both the confidence and the skills of the most disadvantaged children and young people, in order to limit their chances of entering poverty when they leave school. While the Scottish Health Survey contains measures of children and young people's confidence, no data have been collected since the start of CtOG, so that only baseline standards can be provided to inform future analysis. Skills can be measured through the proxy of qualifications, however qualifications data are only available for young people, not for younger children. While there are comprehensive data for this cohort, this pre-dates CtOG, meaning that although comprehensive analysis of the recent trends is possible, no conclusions can be drawn on the impact of CtOG's in this area.
6.07 It is too early to undertake analysis to assess progress towards Objective 3. However baseline data are available through the Scottish Household Survey. SHS data for 2005 shows that low income households are less likely to have savings compared to higher income households, although two fifths nevertheless possess some savings. There is little difference within low income groups in the propensity to save. The profile of sums saved is similar across different 'bands' of low income households, and low income households are only marginally more likely than higher income households to have savings of less than £5000. The key issue seems to be in enabling people to save in the first place, rather than encouraging low income savers to accumulate more savings. SHS data shows that low income households are less likely than higher income households to borrow money, marginally more likely to turn to friends and family to do so, and less likely to use a bank overdraft facility. There is no evidence of extensive use of high credit sources, such as money lenders or cheque cashing facilities.
6.08 CtOG Objective 4 is characterised by its broad scope: it is intended to regenerate the most disadvantaged neighbourhood so that residents may enjoy improved job opportunities and a higher quality of life. This Objective overlaps significantly with Target J, and there is limited evidence currently available at the appropriate geographic scale to assess progress. Data from the 2004 and 2006 Scottish Indices of Deprivation indicate that the most deprived 15% of data zones show signs of improvement in several domains (employment, education, health, access to services and income). However, there is no evidence that the gap in relative conditions between the most deprived areas and other neighbourhoods has narrowed. There is also insufficient data on local environmental quality to assess progress: the Scottish Executive's proposal to include a new Physical Environment domain in the SIMD 2006 was not implemented due to conceptual and methodological difficulties 55. Scottish Household Survey data on perceptions of neighbourhood quality show that while most people are generally satisfied with their areas, residents in the most deprived neighbourhoods consistently report lower levels of satisfaction than others 56.
6.09 Analysis undertaken to assess progress towards Objective 5 shows clear improvement in health outcomes for people living in deprived communities. On seven indicators chosen for this interim evaluation, including rates of adult smoking, teenage pregnancy rates and suicide rates among young people, incidence in the 20% Most Deprived areas has fallen since 2003. In addition, improvement in the period 2003-2005 has been higher than in the period 1995-2003. The secondary goal of the Objective is for health improvement to lead to improved quality of life and employability prospects. There is evidence that rates of Incapacity Benefit ( IB) / Severe Disablement Allowance ( SDA) claims are falling in the Most Deprived areas, although this trend pre-dates CtOG. These data suggest that fewer people in the Most Deprived area are being prevented from working due to illness or disability. Change in quality of life measures cannot be assessed at this stage, due to data availability. In any case it should not be expected that there would be significant changes in these measures at this stage in the implementation of CtOG.
6.10 The programme to improve access to high quality services for people facing disadvantage in line with CtOG Objective 6 did not commence until 2005, and there are no plans to evaluate this work until 2007. It is therefore too early to evaluate progress towards this Objective.
6.11 In summary, the baseline analysis undertaken for CtOG Objectives makes it clear that in many areas poverty continues to have a detrimental impact upon people's lives. Rates of entry into formal jobs for workless people in Scotland do not rise above 20% for any group, and are generally stationary at average rates of between 11%-15%. Children and young people from deprived areas are more likely than their counterparts from more affluent communities to have poor psychosocial health, and children from deprived areas, receiving Free School Meals, with a RoN/IEP or resident in the looked after system achieve far fewer qualifications then young people in general. The health of people in deprived areas is improving - although it remains poor relative to that of Scottish people in general; and remote areas of rural Scotland have a disproportionate share of those areas that have the worse access to public services.
6.12 The baseline analysis also highlights differential progress for disadvantaged and equalities groups - and demonstrates further the extent of the data gaps. Young people from some ethnic minority groups achieve poorer outcomes than those from the general population; young women from deprived areas are more likely to experience poor psychosocial health than young men. Reductions in suicide rates are higher for young women in deprived areas than for young men, and cancer mortality rates are also improving faster for women than for men. Disabled people in rural areas face more difficulties accessing public transport than the general population.
6.13 Across the Objectives no data are available that can be disaggregated by sexuality or faith, and analysis by ethnicity and disability is also limited. Information from interviews with representatives of these equalities groups suggests that progress is varied, with perceived improvements in some areas ( e.g. initiatives to improve educational provision for vulnerable school pupils), but little progress apparent in others ( e.g. access to financial services for minority ethnic communities).
TARGETS
6.14 Analysis of progress towards the achievement of the CtOG Targets demonstrates that in some cases significant progress has been made towards achieving the Target's stated goals. For example, in some areas of high worklessness the numbers of people dependent upon DWP benefits in areas have fallen; under 75 coronary heart disease mortality in the most deprived areas is decreasing at a higher rate than it was before CtOG; and 1,043 people have been offered supported employment opportunities within NHS Scotland. The aim of increasing the availability of appropriate financial services and money advice has been met through the funding for 100 DAS approved money advisers.
6.15 While progress towards a number of the Targets has been good, the available data suggests that the requirements of others have not been wholly met. For example, trend data suggests that Target D will be met by 2008, and Target K has already been achieved. In the case of Target A, benefit reduction trends are on track to result in 55,463 fewer people claiming workless benefits by 2010. While this would be a significant achievement, it is nevertheless 10,537 people short of the Target. For Target C, more placements have been provided than were envisaged, but the transition rate to jobs was 56%. Again, while clearly having an impact, this achievement has not met the 70% goal specified by the Target.
6.16 In addition, there are a number of CtOG Targets for which suitable data does not exist to reliably assess progress. For example, a wide range of agencies are involved in local delivery of Target E, and while it is clear that new processes are being established to implement this Target, the impact of these developments upon the availability of appropriate support for children in young people cannot yet be discerned. For this Target, neither overall nor relative progress can be assessed, and it is not clear that an assessment will be possible at the end of the programme. In other cases, appropriate data will become available but are not yet published. For example, for Target F there are no data currently available that have been collected since the start of CtOG, although future data availability is promising. This is also the case for Target H, where the local specification of priorities has made the process of Target monitoring a more protracted process than in other cases.
6.17 There is no evidence of progress towards either Target B or Target G (the two Targets relating to outcomes for young people); indeed trend data suggest that the situation may be getting worse. Although data are limited, the available information suggests that there has been a slight increase in the proportion of young people who are not in education, employment or training, and a slight decrease in the proportion of looked after young people leaving care to enter education, employment or training between 2005 and 2006.
6.18 Progress towards achieving Targets varies significantly by equalities groups, although in some areas there are insufficient adequate data with which to make an assessment. It is clear in relation to several Targets that equalities groups are more likely to be disadvantaged compared to the general population and there is little evidence so far indicating that CtOG has succeeded in overcoming these unequal conditions.
6.19 The overall downward trend for Target A is less pronounced for adults aged 45 and over - with a barely noticeable downward trend from 1999-2006. Trends also vary by type of claim: slightly more disabled people are now claiming Incapacity Benefit; and more Lone Parents (predominantly women) are in receipt of workless benefits than at the start of the CtOG programme. This is also the case for Target B, where data suggests that since 2003 a higher proportion of DDA disabled young people have become NEET, while the proportion of young people who are NEET and not DDA disabled has remained relatively constant.
6.20 In some cases outcomes are better for young women than for young men. For example, for Target C, 61% of training course participants were female (although this reflects that the majority of NHS positions, particularly support roles, are held by women). For Target B, slightly fewer young women are NEET than young men. However, where outcomes are better, trend data can be worse, and in some cases, rates of improvement are poorer for women than men ( e.g. Target A).
6.21 As referred to above, data availability is a key problem when monitoring Target outcomes by equalities group. While data can generally be disaggregated by gender and age, information availability on disability is highly varied, and limited sample boosts mean that often there are no adequate ethnicity data. In the case of faith and sexuality, there are no available data for any of the Targets. In the case of Target E, H and K, it is not yet clear if any equalities data will be available.
6.22 Overall, the analysis of Target shows that there have been real improvements in specific areas of life in Scotland since the start of CtOG. Targets A, D and K, for which positive progress can be demonstrated, have enabled the provision of focussed work programmes that are clearly linked to the overall Target aims. In these cases it seems likely that improvements have occurred at least in part as a result of the CtOG programme. More people in Scotland are working, fewer people are suffering from monitored serious illnesses and more people have access to financial advice.
6.23 In other areas, particularly outcomes for young people, there has been no evidence of improvement, or change cannot yet be discerned. The proportion of young people in Scotland who are NEET remains an area of particular concern.
CONCLUSIONS
6.24 The overall approach of the CtOG strategy in integrating the programme into Scottish Executive Departmental targets has proven to be a valuable means for sustaining an Executive-wide approach to addressing social inclusion. This approach has also encouraged the collation and analysis of shared data within the Executive that will assist future analysis and policy development.
6.25 Across the CtOG programme, the overall Aims and secondary goals of Objectives are challenging. In most cases it is too early to assess whether either the primary or secondary goals of the Objectives have been met. The health of people living in the most deprived areas has shown clear improvement since the start of the CtOG programme. However this is the only Objective for which data are available to make any clear assessment of progress.
6.26 Based upon findings from the baseline analysis, there has been uneven progress for different groups across the CtOG programme. There is a case for continuing to look in detail at outcome rates for particular groups - and possibly to set new Targets for the most disadvantaged groups.
6.27 The varied rates of change across the programme, and lack of progress in some Targets and Objectives highlights the need to sustain regular evaluation of progress and make appropriate adjustments of policy. Without such appraisal, examples of policy areas which have not yet delivered as hoped may be overlooked. This requires continued improvements in the quality of data and policy monitoring systems. Some Scottish Executive Target Owners demonstrate good practice in monitoring progress in their policy areas; other Target Owners could learn from this, under the guidance of the Social Inclusion Division and with assistance from analysts.
6.28 In addition to improving internal monitoring data and procedures, assessing progress for the CtOG strategy as a whole would be aided by benchmarking developments against UK social inclusion data and related policy initiatives. For example, comparing CtOG Objectives and Target data against DWPOpportunity For All57 reports or the evidence compiled in annual Monitoring Poverty and Social Exclusion reports 58 ( MPSE) for the UK and Scotland would provide a broader picture of the impact of Scottish policy measures.
6.29 The existing CtOG baseline data demonstrates the scale of the challenge facing the Scottish Executive if the overarching CtOG Aims are to be met. Meeting all of the Targets and Objectives is dependent upon some factors which are outwith the remit of the Scottish Executive. Employment policy and benefit rates are determined by Westminster, and while policy decisions in the areas of education, health, financial exclusion and public service provision in rural areas are devolved, the Executive's power over public expenditure in these areas is limited.
6.30 Poverty will be reduced in Scotland if the financial circumstances of households whose incomes are currently below the average improve, and if households are able to sustain these higher incomes. Meeting this goal will be contingent upon people being able to access and sustain appropriately paid employment, and upon benefit levels remaining sufficiently high to ensure that those who cannot work are not living in poverty. The Scottish Executive has no jurisdiction over either the National Minimum Wage (at both full and development rates) nor welfare benefit levels for those not in formal employment. The Executive's policy influence is therefore limited to providing people in Scotland with the health, skills and opportunities to enter and sustain formal work. It is not yet clear if this will be enough to prevent and significantly reduce poverty in Scotland, but the potential power of the available interventions should not be underestimated.
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