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CHAPTER FIVE: EVALUATING CLOSING THE OPPORTUNITY GAP TARGETS

INTRODUCTION

5.01 This Chapter summarises findings from the evaluation of progress towards achieving each of the ten CtOG Targets. The Chapter discusses in turn general issues in relation to data availability and measurement, the overall situation in terms of progress towards achieving Targets, and particular issues regarding impact across different equalities and other population sub-groups.

5.02 An overview of progress for each CtOG Target is provided in Table 5.1. For each Target this summarises overall progress, whether key sub-populations and Equalities groups share the same direction of travel as the target population as a whole, and an assessment of the extent to which existing data enables interim evaluation of progress toward achieving the Target.

5.03 The full data and analysis underpinning this Chapter is provided in Annex 4. In addition, some evidence on progress towards Targets is included in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 and Annex 4 should be read together for a full understanding of the analysis of Target outcomes. Annex 4 presents data in a standard format for each Target, similar to that used for the analysis of CtOG Objectives in Chapter 4; i.e.:

• Summary evaluation: an overview of the extent to which progress has been made in achieving the Target
• Policy context: a brief review of the role of the Target in relation to CtOG and wider Scottish Executive policy
• Evidence: detailed presentation and interpretation of data
• Data issues: a description and critical appraisal of the evidence base to inform subsequent Target evaluations

DATA AND MEASUREMENT: OVERVIEW

5.04 Evaluating CtOG Targets is assisted both by their detailed specification and the established collection of monitoring and evaluation data undertaken by the Scottish Executive CtOG Target Owners and Departments. However, although conclusions on the direction of travel and relative pace of change can be drawn from the available evidence, care is required in interpreting this data. In particular, the extent to which any discernible trends can be attributed to CtOG itself is open to question at this interim stage of implementation.

5.05 In addition, there are a number of CtOG Targets for which suitable data does not exist to reliably assess progress. For example, a wide range of agencies are involved in the local delivery of Target E, and while it is evident that new processes are being established to implement this Target, the impact of these cannot currently be discerned. Consequently, neither an overall nor relative assessment of impact is currently possible for this Target.

5.06 In the case of other Targets, appropriate data will become available in time, but are not yet published. For example, there are no data for Target F, although future data availability is promising. This is also the case for Target H, where local specification of priorities has made the process of Target monitoring a protracted process.

5.07 Data availability is also a key issue in monitoring outcomes for different equalities groups. While data can generally be disaggregated by gender and age, the availability of information on disability varies, and limited boosts to sample sizes usually mean that there are no adequate ethnicity data. Data on faith and sexuality are not available for any of the Targets. In the case of Targets E, H and K it is not yet clear whether any equalities data will be available in the future.

5.08 Estimations of the quality of data for each Target are summarised in the final column of Table 5.1. This is based on an overall assessment of the extent to which available data facilitates the interim evaluation of progress toward achieving each Target in terms of relevance; availability throughout the necessary period ( i.e. continuously from the launch of CtOG); scope and coverage ( i.e. national, available at small area level, may be disaggregated by relevant population sub-groups and equalities groups).

TARGET ANALYSIS: OVERVIEW

5.09 Analysis of progress towards the achievement of the CtOG Targets demonstrates that in some cases significant progress has been made towards achieving the Target's stated goals. For example:

• Target K has been achieved in part: the availability of appropriate money advice has been met through funding 100 DAS approved money advisers
• Target D will be met by 2008: under-75 coronary heart disease mortality in the most deprived areas is now decreasing at a higher rate than it was before CtOG
• Target A demonstrates some progress: in certain areas of high worklessness the number of people dependent upon DWP benefits has fallen
• Target C has been partially successful: 1,043 people have been offered supported employment opportunities within NHS Scotland

5.10 However, although progress towards a number of Targets is evident, the available data suggests that the full requirements of these and others have not been met at this stage. For example:

• Target A: benefit reduction trends are on track to result in 55,463 fewer people claiming workless benefits by 2010; however this is 10,537 short of the Target
• Target C: more placements have been provided than were envisaged, but the transition rate to jobs for these was 56%, rather than the Target goal of 70%

5.11 Overall, this Target analysis establishes that there have been real improvements since the start of CtOG in particular areas. More people in Scotland are working, fewer people are suffering from monitored serious illnesses, and more people have access to financial advice. Targets A, C, D and K, for which positive progress can be demonstrated, have enabled the provision of focussed work programmes that are clearly linked to the overall Target aims. In these cases it seems likely that improvements have occurred at least in part as a result of the CtOG programme.

5.12 In other areas, particularly outcomes for young people, there has either been no evidence of improvement, or change cannot yet be discerned. Notwithstanding limitations with data available to evaluate Target B there is no evidence of progress towards either Target B nor Target G (the two Targets relating to outcomes for young people). Indeed trend data suggest that the situation may be worsening: the available information suggests that there has been a slight increase in the proportion of young people who are not in education, employment or training ( NEET), and a slight decrease in the proportion of looked after young people leaving care to enter education, employment or training between 2005 - 2006.

EQUALITIES GROUPS: OVERVIEW

5.13 Although in some areas there are no adequate data with which to make an assessment, nevertheless, it appears that progress towards Target outcomes varies significantly by equalities groups. There is no single trend which may be easily summarised: the picture is one of unevenness, both in terms of relatively positive and negative outcomes for different equality groups, and variation in outcomes across different Targets.

5.14 In the case of several Targets, people from certain equalities groups are more likely to experience relatively disadvantaged starting conditions compared to the general population, and such disadvantages may be reflected in apparently worse Target outcomes, even if the situation of the group in question has improved in absolute terms. This possibility highlights the importance of collecting disaggregated data and maintaining careful monitoring of any variations in Target impact.

5.15 For Target A, downward trends are less pronounced for adults aged 45 and over, with a barely noticeable downward trend from 1999-2006. Trends also vary by type of claim: slightly more disabled people are claiming Incapacity Benefit, and more people (mostly women) are claiming Lone Parent benefits.

5.16 Variation by disability is evident for Target B, where data suggests that since 2003, a higher proportion of DDA disabled young people have become NEET, while the proportion of young people who are NEET and not DDA disabled has remained relatively constant.

5.17 In some cases Target outcomes are better for young women than young men. For example, for Target C, 61% of training course participants were female (although this reflects that the majority of NHS positions, particularly support roles, are held by women). In Target B, slightly fewer young women are NEET than young men. However, for Target A, rates of improvement are poorer for women than men.

Table 5.1: Summary Evaluation of CtOG Targets, December 2006

Note: Evaluations of direction of travel, content analysis and data quality for each Target are qualitative, and summarise the authors' assessments as expressed in the main body of the report. Refer also to 5.0.

TARGET A

5.18 Target A aims to reduce the number of workless people dependent on DWP benefits in Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, Dundee, and West Dunbartonshire by 2007 and by 2010.

5.19 The Scottish Executive has counted an individual as 'workless and dependent on DWP benefits' if they are in receipt of 'unemployment related benefits', Incapacity Benefit or Income Support. The Executive uses Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study ( WPLS) to identify the number of individuals in receipt of the relevant benefits, except in the case of Glasgow, for which the Jobcentre Plus Benefit Caseload database ( JCP) has been used. The research team have concluded that to properly reflect the number of people who are workless and dependent on DWP benefits, the definition of Target A should include all people of working age who are not in paid employment and in receipt of DWP benefits, including Severe Disablement Allowance ( SDA) claimants, and male claimants aged 60-64 receiving only the Pension Credit ⁴⁶. Moreover, the research team believe that this population should be measured using WPLS rather than JCP data, as the former meets National Statistics standards. This evaluation has therefore been carried out using this revised definition.

5.20 There is a large difference between the Glasgow JCP estimates of the workless population and WPLS figures for Glasgow. This is most likely due to that the fact that the JCP Glasgow area has different geographical boundaries to the DWP Glasgow area, and people in receipt of more than one benefit may be counted twice in the JCP database, as there is no standard screening to remove double claimants, as there is with the WPLS. Based on past experience, the research team is not surprised to find a large discrepancy between these datasets. Given the significantly higher levels of quality control used for the WPLS, and acknowledgement by National Statistics that it is the more reliable dataset, the research team conclude that the WPLS figures must be considered the more reliable.

5.21 The trend in workless caseloads since 1999 shows a linear downward trend of approximately 1,855 fewer workless claims per quarter. This trend, were it to continue, would yield a reduction in workless caseloads of 19,539 from August 2004 to March 2007 and a reduction of 41,821 from August 2004 to March 2010.

5.22 There have been significant reductions in the numbers of people claiming workless benefits in the CtOG Target areas. These regions all demonstrate strong progress, although there is some variation between them. However, these reductions are not yet sufficient to enable the overall CtOG Target to be met.

5.23 Although there are fewer workless women on benefits than workless men overall, the downward trend for women has not been as steep as it has been for men.

5.24 Benefit caseloads show an overall downward trend for workless people of different ages since August 1999, and a more pronounced downward trend since February 2003. Reductions in worklessness are most pronounced for people in the 25-34 age group, with those in the 34-44 age band also exhibiting a noticeable downward trend; reductions for those in the 45-49 age band are extremely limited over the period August 1999 to May 2006.

5.25 In the case of the 45-49 year old age band, the very slight downward trend overall is due to projected reductions in Jobseekers Allowance ( JSA) and Income Support ( IS) claims. For Incapacity Benefit ( IB) and Lone Parent claims, the projected trend is upward. Claims for Lone Parent benefit are also projected to be higher in 2007 and 2010 by 96 and 247 respectively.

5.26 There is a predicted decrease in the numbers of disabled people claiming workless benefits, but this is a more limited decrease than for the overall population. Among disabled people, the decreases are predicted to be bigger among men than women. By 2010, there may be slight increase in the proportion of people claiming disability benefits among people aged 45-49.

5.27 No data were available to track worklessness trends by ethnicity, faith nor sexuality. The Scottish Executive CtOG Target Owner is not aware of any evidence on whether the impact of Target A varies by these factors.

5.28 In general, it is inadvisable to revise target focus, target specification and target measurement. However, as discussed in 5.19 to 5.20, there are strong grounds for re-specifying Target A to take cognisance of the alternative means of measurement. Most significantly, these changes to target specification and measurement do not alter the focus of the target - to reduce the number of workless people dependent on DWP benefits in the designated local authorities by 2007 and 2010.

TARGET B

5.29 Target B aims to reduce the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, training or employment by 2008.

5.30 Analysis of Target B is limited by the wide confidence limits associated with the available data sources, the lack of local area data these provide, and the absence of data which may be disaggregated by ethnicity and faith.

5.31 Labour Force Survey ( LFS) data suggest that from a 2003 baseline, there has a small increase in the proportion of young people who are NEET, but that since 1998 there has been an overall decrease. Overall, there appears to have been little significant change over the last seven years. The wide confidence limits on the data mean that precise analysis of the actual trends is not possible; the actual proportion of young people who were NEET in 2005 is likely to lie between 12.7% - 15.4%

5.32 The data suggest that progress has varied by gender. Overall, young men in 2005 were slightly less likely to be NEET than in 2003 while young women were slightly more likely to be NEET. When data from 1996 are considered, this trend appears more pronounced, with the fall in the proportion of young men who are NEET clearer, while the proportion of young women who are NEET shows an overall lack of change.

5.33 Progress has varied by age: young people aged 18 and 19 were more likely to be NEET in 2005 than in 2003. Over the same period, young people aged 17 are less likely to be NEET, although the proportion of 17 year olds who are NEET rose between 2004 - 2005. There has been little overall change in the proportion of 16 year olds who are NEET since 2003.

5.34 Since 2003, a higher proportion of the population of DDA disabled young people have become NEET, while the proportion of young people who are NEET and not DDA disabled remained relatively constant. Overall, a much higher proportion of disabled young people are NEET than non-disabled young people.

5.35 No data are available to analyse the proportions of young people NEET disaggregated by ethnicity or faith.

5.36 There has been a slight overall decrease in the numbers of young people aged 18-19 claiming benefits in Scotland. However, there is variation in this at local authority level: there were proportionally fewer young people claiming benefits in 2005 than in 2003 in Aberdeen, Argyll and Bute, Stirling and North Lanarkshire. Areas where there had been increases over the same time period include West Dunbartonshire, West Lothian and Scottish Borders.

5.37 The necessary time series data to assess the NEET Strategy are not yet available; therefore at present, the impact of the CtOG upon the proportions of young people in Scotland who are NEET cannot be discerned. However the measures devised to assess the NEET Strategy provide an improved understanding of the proportions of young people NEET in Scotland on which future comparisons may be based. Data from the survey of school leavers' destinations ( SLD) is discussed in the Annex.

TARGET C

5.38 Target C aims to ensure that public sector and large employers tackle aspects of in-work poverty by providing employees with the opportunity to develop skills and progress in their career. NHS Scotland will set an example by providing 1,000 job opportunities, with support for training and progression once in post, between 2004 and 2006 to people who are currently economically inactive or unemployed.

5.39 Target C falls under CtOG's Objective 1, which aims 'to increase the chances of sustained employment for vulnerable or disadvantaged groups'. Target C comprises three parts: offering 1,000 job places; a high rate (over 70%) of translation from places to job entries; and evidence that other sectors are following suit by March 2006.

5.40 For the period up to March 2006, 1,043 people were offered places on training schemes; 585 of these ( i.e. 56%) entered employment with NHS Scotland upon completing their training, and 455 sustained that employment beyond three months. Rates of progression from placements offered towards sustained employment varied for the different schemes implemented for this Target, but were below 60% for all but one scheme. The overall rate of translation from places offered to sustained employment was 44%; while the rate of translation to employment (sustained or otherwise) was 56%; i.e. 14 percentage points lower than the 70% defined as success. Therefore, while schemes met the first sub-target by March 2006, they did not meet the second.

5.41 Some employers in both the private and public spheres are developing pre-employment initiatives to help workless individuals into sustained employment similar to those run by Health Boards. However, it is not yet clear that this activity is sufficient evidence that 'other sectors are following suit'.

5.42 NHS positions, particularly support roles, are held predominantly by women. This is reflected in the overall gender breakdown of placements and employment achieved for this Target, which shows that 61% of training scheme participants were female.

5.43 Schemes ensure childcare is available for participants during the course of their training; however trainees subsequently employed by NHS Scotland are only eligible for the same childcare benefits as other employees, and therefore incur some childcare costs upon taking up employment. This can mean that some participants successfully completed their training find themselves without the necessary childcare support to progress to employment. The qualitative research undertaken for this evaluation found that it was felt that this was not an issue Health Boards themselves could do anything about, but it had been raised with local and national government.

5.44 Data on the disability status of participants in the pre-employment schemes is limited, and no data is currently available on faith, ethnicity, or sexuality. Interviews with members on Scottish Executive staff working on this Target, and examination of the Scottish Executive CtOG Equalities Impact Assessment, suggest that significant efforts have been taken to ensure that training schemes are accessible to all, although some difficulties are still encountered by some groups; e.g. some language barriers exist for refugees who could otherwise benefit from the training schemes.

TARGET D

5.45 Target D aims to reduce health inequalities by increasing the rate of improvement for under 75 Coronary Heart Disease ( CHD) mortality and under 75 cancer mortality (1995-2003) for the most deprived communities by 15% by 2008.

5.46 Target D requires improvements in deprived areas regarding two specific types of illness - Cancer and CHD - and comes under the umbrella of Objective 5 discussed in the previous Chapter. Data provided in Chapter 4 showed that under 75 cancer and CHD mortalities per 100,000 population, in the 20% most deprived areas fell between 2003 and 2005, and that these reductions were higher than the respective targets of 2.1% and 6.1%. It may be concluded therefore that this Target is on track.

5.47 Between 2003 and 2005 the under 75 CHD mortality rate fell by 12.7%, from 112.0 to 97.8. This equates to an average annual percentage improvement of 6.6%, higher than the target figure of 6.1%.

5.48 Between 2003 and 2005 the under 75 cancer mortality rate fell by 7.4%, from 186.4 to 172.6. This equates to an average annual percentage improvement of 3.8%, higher than the target figure of 2.1%.

5.49 Improvements in the rate of reduction were greatest in the 5% most deprived areas, suggesting that improved health services and efforts to reduce practices that lead to these illnesses are successfully impacting upon the most severely deprived communities, as well as those relatively less deprived and the country as a whole.

5.50 People aged over 65 are more than five times more likely than average to suffer mortality as a result of CHD or cancer. Men are more likely to die from each of these illnesses than women; e.g. male CHD mortality rates are three times higher than female rates.

5.51 The data available on cancer and CHD mortality rates cannot be disaggregated by ethnicity, faith, sexuality or disability status. In the absence of quantitative information on how such groups are progressing, the research team interviewed Scottish Executive staff monitoring this Target about any differential impact across equalities groups. Scottish Executive staff believed that the major equality issue for this Target were differences in outcomes across different socio-economic groups; this was the rationale for requiring an increased rate of improvement in deprived areas.

5.52 The Scottish Executive Equalities Impact Assessment for Target D stressed that an important aspect of the Prevention 2010/ Keep well pilots is to ensure that primary health services are extended to all 'hard-to-reach' groups, and as part of this, a number of measures have been taken to increase the impact of work on equalities groups, for example, producing information leaflets in different languages.

TARGET E

5.53 Target E aims to ensure that by 2008, children and young people who need it have an integrated package of appropriate health, care and education support. In relation to CtoG, Target E relates most closely to Targets G, B and F.

5.54 Target E is aimed at the implementation of a reform - providing an integrated approach to delivering services - premised on the understanding that this will provide additional benefits to children and young people. Target E is therefore a process and output-based, rather than an outcome-based Target, and focuses on reforming service provision more than measuring the impact of that provision. The processes and outputs required to meet this Target are either in place or under development, and to that extent, the Target may be said to have been met.

5.55 The principle source of data for monitoring progress towards implementation of Target E is the Quality Improvement Framework ( QIF) developed by the Scottish Executive for Integrated Childrens Service Plans ( ICSPs) ⁴⁷. This Framework includes a suite of 43 performance indicators organised into 7 broader 'outcomes' which will be reported in ICSP annual updates. The majority of indicators are outcome-focussed, although 13 refer to processes or outputs. It is likely that the first plans to include QIF data will be those submitted for 2008-2011, following delays both in receiving the initial submissions, and the resultant delay in the Scottish Executive providing feedback to agencies on these ⁴⁸ and subsequent policy developments.

5.56 This Target operates in a responsive and demand-led policy area: the number of personalised care plans and consequent actions will depend in the number of children in need of care, which cannot be specified in advance (although, based on past trends, it may be possible to estimate future demand). There is no data available on any break-down by equalities or other sub-groups.

5.57 Two key groups of children and young people have been identified as the focus particularly in need of action in relation to Target E: all who appear at Children's Hearings, and those targeted through the Additional Support for Learning legislation. It will be viewed as an indicator of success in achieving Target E will be achieved if progress is made toward providing these children and young people in need with an integrated package of care and education support. It is anticipated that an evaluation of progress towards this goal will be possible by the end of 2007.

5.58 In theory this Target could be met by having personalised care plans in place, irrespective of any outcome or benefit which children may derive from them. However, the Scottish Executive proposes to measure the benefits of integrated packages through examining updates to ICSP and QIF information. Furthermore, Joint Inspection reports of children's and related services will contribute to monitoring progress in line with Target priorities, and a fuller evaluation of outcomes from the Getting It Right For Every Child strategy is also proposed.

TARGET F

5.59 Target F aims to increase the average tariff score of the lowest attaining 20 % of S4 pupils by 5% by 2008.

5.60 For Target F to be achieved the average tariff score of the lowest performing 20% of S4 pupils ( i.e. aged 16-17) must increase by 5% from the baseline of 30 ^th September 2004; i.e. the average of the lowest quintile must increase from 53 to 56 points by 2008. This 2004 baseline refers to pupil results for 2002/03, and the 2008 Target deadline will use data from 2006/07.

5.61 A number of other CtOG Targets and related activities complement and contribute to Target F. These include Target B (reducing the proportion of 16-19 NEETs); Target E (ensuring integrated packages of care); Target G (ensuring looked after young people enter education, employment or training); and Target J (promoting community regeneration in the most deprived neighbourhoods).

5.62 The average tariff score of the lowest attaining 20% of pupils in 2002/03 was 53, compared to a national average tariff of 168. The most recent average tariff score of the lowest attaining 20% is 51, compared to a national average of 170 (based on 2004/05 data). The available data therefore suggests that there has been a slight fall in the average tariff score for the lowest 20% of S4 pupils, although there are certain limitations with this data. Overall, there has been no positive trend in this measure in recent years. Indeed, because attainment among S4 pupils generally increased up to 2004/05, the difference in educational attainment between the lowest attaining 20% and all S4 pupils has widened in recent years.

5.63 Data for this Target pre-dates CtOG, and the availability of data on trends in the relative educational attainment of pupils from different equalities groups varies. It is known that boys, pupils with additional educational needs, certain minority ethnic groups, and those receiving free school meals all score below the national average S4 tariff. However, for other groups there is no data available to indicate whether they are significantly more likely to be among the lowest attaining 20%, or whether this likelihood has changed since this Target was set.

5.64 There is a higher proportion of boys in the lowest attaining 20 % group than in the population as a whole, and this is a long-standing pattern: girls have been outperforming boys in school examinations in Scotland since 1981. This difference should be seen in the context of increasing overall attainment among both boys and girls in recent years.

5.65 Only a small proportion of pupils with an Individualised Education Plan ( IEP) and/or Record of Need ( RON) are represented in the lowest attaining 20 %, and this has not changed significantly in recent years. In 2002/03, 9% of pupils with a RoN / IEP were in the lowest quintile; in 2003/04 the figure was 12%, and in 2004/05 also 12%. However, according to analysis conducted by the Scottish Executive, the proportion of pupils with an IEP or RoN in the lower attaining group is 4 - 5 times higher than in the cohort as a whole ⁴⁹. There is no separate data to analyse trends among pupils in the lowest attaining 20% of S4 pupils with a disability.

5.66 In 2005, 95% of pupils in primary and secondary schools across Scotland were white. Consequently, an analysis of S4 attainment by different ethnic minority groups is limited by small populations sizes.

5.67 S4 attainment data cannot be broken down by the faith of individual pupils. However it is possible to compare attainment between pupils attending denominational (Roman Catholic) and non-denominational schools. The data shows no significant difference in attainment levels between such schools.

5.68 There is no quantitative data available on difference in pupil performance in relation to sexuality, and data collection in this area would be problematic. Representatives of LGBT organisations in Scotland interviewed for this evaluation believed that LGBT young people are over-represented among socially excluded groups. In particular, they suggested that LGBT young people may leave school earlier to escape a homophobic environment, and consequently acquire fewer qualifications than they would otherwise have gained. Currently there is no independent verification of this view.

5.69 The Scottish School Leavers' Survey On Gender and Low Achievement (2000) concluded that social background and area characteristics remained the strongest predictors of low educational attainment. Average tariff scores at S4 are considerably and consistently lower in the 15% most deprived areas than in the rest of Scotland; for example, in 2002/03, the average tariff score in the MD15% was 122 compared to 168 across Scotland as a whole. In 2003/4, the corresponding figures were 122 among the MD15% compared to 170 for the rest of Scotland.

TARGET G

5.70 Target G aims to ensure that by 2007, at least 50% of all 'looked after' young people leaving care have entered education, employment or training.

5.71 This Target is related to all measures in pursuit of CtOG Objective 2, which aims to improve the confidence and skills of the most disadvantaged children and young people in order to provide them with the greatest chance of avoiding poverty when they leave school. In particular, it is closely related to CtOG Target B and the related NEET strategy for young people, More Choices, More Chances. In addition, the Target G relates to CtOG Target F and associated actions.

5.72 The total number of young people in and leaving care in Scotland in the course of a year is relatively small, which means that robust sub-group analyses are not possible.

5.73 Data is not available for those young people who ended their relationships with their social workers after leaving care: 15% of young people reported to be entitled to aftercare were not in touch with the local authority on 31 ^st March 2006 ⁵⁰. This is an improvement from 2005, when social work departments were no longer in touch with 25% of care leavers eligible for aftercare support, and 2004 when the figure was 23%.

5.74 As neither local social services nor the Scottish Executive know what happens to those care leavers who do not stay in touch with their social workers or key worker, Target G applies only to those care leavers whose economic status is known, which was around 60% of all care leavers at March 2006.

5.75 The data indicate that overall there has been no significant progress in relation to this Target from the 2004 baseline. Of the young people reported to be entitled to aftercare support and who were still in touch with the local authority as at 31 ^st March 2006, the economic activity of 23% was unknown. Approximately 37% of young people receiving aftercare in 2006 whose economic activity was known were in education, training or employment. Of those with a known economic activity, 15% were in education; 22% were in employment or training; 5% were not in education, training or employment due to illness or disability; 7% were looking after family members, and 51% were not in education, training or employment due to other circumstances.

5.76 A higher number and proportion of males than females are receiving after care services: boys and young men made up 49% of all looked after young people in 2006; girls and young women 43% (the gender of 8% was unknown). There is limited evidence on the differential economic and educational outcomes for males and females leaving care.

5.77 It is difficult to assess variations in relation to equalities groups due to the small numbers involved; however, it appears that young people with a disability are less likely than other care leavers to be in employment, education or training. 22% of young people with a disability reported to be entitled to aftercare support with a known economic activity in 2006 were in employment, education or training, compared to 41% of comparable young people with no disability. There is no data available to explore trends over time for this group.

5.78 There is no evidence to indicate whether different minority ethnic groups have different outcomes in relation to the Target. This is largely due to very small numbers of young people from minority ethnic communities receiving aftercare support, which are often registered as 0% in the Children Looked After Survey ( CLAS). The CLAS does not collect information on faith or sexuality, therefore no analysis of these factor is possible.

TARGET H

5.79 Target H aims to improve service delivery in rural areas by 2008 so that agreed improvements to accessibility and quality are achieved for key services in remote and disadvantaged communities.

5.80 Target H overlaps significantly with Objective 6, which aims to improve service quality for disadvantaged groups in rural Scotland

5.81 It is premature to evaluate progress toward achieving Target H. However, the lack of data should not be viewed as a failing, as it reflects the nature of the Target, which entails local specification of priorities. As a result of this, the process of Target specification and monitoring is a protracted process.

5.82 A six month Rural Service Priority Areas ( RSPA) monitoring report summarising progress in service implementation and information monitoring across Target areas found that 32 of the 90 target services had been introduced by the end of 2006, and that progress was being made for introducing the remainder of services. Data on outcomes from these activities will not be available until the end of 2007.

5.83 Comprehensive templates for Target monitoring are used to standardise data collection across the RSPAs. These templates provide information on:

• the services targeted for improvement
• boundary issues (where the service may be utilised by people residing outwith the RSPA)
• a statement on the impact of the services targeted for Equalities Groups
• baseline information on service use and need
• funding

5.84 The research team have not had the opportunity to review the proforma used to monitor service implementation nor evaluate the outcomes of service delivery.

TARGET J

5.85 Target J aims to promote community regeneration in the most deprived neighborhoods, through improvements by 2008 in employability, education, health, access to local services, and quality of the local environment.

5.86 Target J is multi-faceted, comprising improvements over five domains in the 15% Most Deprived neighbourhoods in Scotland, as defined in the 2004 Scottish index of Multiple Deprivation. This Target is closely aligned to Objective 4, and directly linked to several other CtOG Targets and related work programmes.

5.87 Improvements in neighbourhood conditions will be assessed by monitoring data from Regeneration Outcome Agreements. It is not yet possible to evaluate the extent to which Target J is being fulfilled. However, it is possible to set baseline measures for most facets of Target J. These baselines establish the extent to which the most deprived neighbourhoods in Scotland fall behind the less deprived neighbourhoods in key aspects of community well-being.

5.88 Table 5.2 provides an overview of change in the 15% Most Deprived neighbourhoods in Scotland in 2004 for five broad domains (four of which correspond to the different dimensions of Target J). The table shows the percentage of data zones which left the 15% Most Deprived between 2004 - 2006, and the percentage which remained in the 15% Most Deprived. The table shows that a significant minority of neighbourhoods (around one in five) were no longer among the 15% Most Deprived for these domains in 2006.

Table 5.2: Change in Deprived Area Status for Key Domains, 15% Most Deprived Neighbourhoods (Data Zones) in Scotland 2004, Percentages

Source: Calculated from background data drawn from Scottish Executive (2006) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2006. Edinburgh: Scottish Executive, and Scottish Executive (2004) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Edinburgh: Scottish Executive.

Note: For each domain in turn, this table only reports data for data zones which were among the 15% Most Deprived Areas in 2004 and were among the 15% Most Deprived Areas for each domain in 2004. The table does not report domain level data for those 15% Most Deprived Areas overall which were not among the 15% Most Deprived Areas for each domain in 2004, nor for areas which were among the 15% Most Deprived Areas for that domain in 2004, but not the 15% Most Deprived Areas overall.

5.89 More detailed analysis of the 15% Most Deprived Neighbourhoods is provided in the final three columns of Table 5.2, which present a vigintile analysis of movements for the 15% Most Deprived Neighbourhoods in Scotland in 2004. Although the majority of neighbourhoods maintained their status between 2004 - 2006 as either among the 5%, 6-10% or 11-15% Most Deprived neighbourhoods, there was a significant volume of change, with conditions worsening in around one in five neighbourhoods and improving in a similar proportion.

5.90 The main conclusion to be drawn from comparing change in the circumstance of the 15% Most Deprived neighbourhoods in Scotland in 2004 is that conditions are improving; for several measures, positive change is evident in the majority of neighbourhoods: employment; education; health; access to GP services; access to a post office; access to a shop or supermarket. Positive change in employment rates was also higher in those seven local authority areas that are the focus of Target A than they were for Scotland as a whole.

5.91 The decision to define 'the most deprived neighborhoods' as the 15% Most Deprived Areas in 2004 is significant. The rate of change in status implies that subsequent measurements of Target J will include around 20% of data zones which are no longer among the most deprived neighbourhoods in subsequent years. Furthermore, this focus necessitates identifying and tracing data zones over time, which makes analysis a more time consuming process than would otherwise be the case if the Target was focused on profiling the overall cohort of 15% Most Deprived areas.

TARGET K

5.92 Target K aims by 2008 to increase the availability of appropriate financial services and money advice to disadvantaged communities to reduce their vulnerability to financial exclusion and multiple debts.

5.93 Considerable investment has been made to increase and improve financial services and support to the most vulnerable; however, these measures have not yet had sufficient opportunity to effect positive change in the lives of the most vulnerable in disadvantaged communities.

5.94 The Scottish Executive Financial Inclusion Action Plan ⁵¹ proposes that sustaining and maintaining financial inclusion includes:

• Access to affordable credit, e.g. through Credit Unions
• Access for people in marginalised groups to a range of mainstream banking and savings products
• Everyone having home contents insurance, e.g. through developing pilots with social landlords to offer schemes to tenants
• Individuals and communities owning and building on assets

5.95 There is a lack of consistent data on the numbers of households in Scotland with access to a bank account. Since 2003, the SHS has included Credit Union accounts, which were not included in earlier surveys. The Family Resources Survey includes such accounts and post office accounts. The trends are similar in both data sets, but particular figures are not consistent. Data limitations also mean trends among equalities groups cannot be analysed.

5.96 According to Family Resources Survey data, the proportion of low income households with no bank or building society account has fallen significantly: more than 30% of the poorest fifth of households had no such account in 1994-95 compared to only 10% in 2004-05.

5.97 According to SHS data, the proportion of households in the most deprived quintile with no bank or building society account reduced from 29% to 21%, between 1999 - 2003, and from 14% to 8% in the second most deprived quintile.

5.98 The available data indicates that the target of 5% of the Scottish adult population having Credit Union membership may be achieved by 2008. In 2001 the number of Credit Union members in Scotland was estimated by the Financial Services Authority ( FSA) to be 119,595 - less than 1% of the total population, and equivalent to 2-3% of the adult population. FSA statistics show that the number of adult Credit Union members in Scotland rose from 169,987 in 2003 to 179,366 in 2004. This represented 36% of the UK Credit Union membership ⁵², and an increase of approximately half over this four year period. A Scottish Executive review in February 2006 concluded that, at the end of September 2004, 4.32% of the adult population were members of a Credit Union.

5.99 There is limited data available on the social profile of Credit Union members. However, research undertaken in 2004 indicated that very few members were aged under 30 or from minority ethnic backgrounds, with most being of White ethnic background, unemployed, sick or disabled. This research suggested that one quarter of members lived in areas designated as being deprived, and 14% were in receipt of means tested benefits. This research estimated that 'between 12% and 20% of Credit Union members would lack access to financial products and services but for membership of a Credit Union' ⁵³.

5.100 £1 million from the Financial Inclusion Action Plan was used over 2003-05 to provide training and support to the Money Advice, Training, Resources, Information and Consultancy Services partnership ( MATRICS) to improve money advice services. The Scottish Executive had hoped to meet the target of 100 trained DAS approved money advisers by April 2005. At the time of this interim CtOG evaluation, there were 84 registered money advisers.

5.101 It can be concluded that funding has been provided and there are money advisers in post, thus increasing the availability of money advice, but these are outputs rather than outcomes. The impact of the resources put into money advice cannot be quantified at present. A framework funded by the Scottish Executive for monitoring services has been put in place. The data gathered through this framework is analysed in the Money Advice for Vulnerable Group report, which will provide baseline information for future comparisons ⁵⁴.

SUMMARY

5.102 Progress across the Targets is varied. Some show strong progress ( e.g. Targets A, C, D, K), while the impact of others cannot yet be assessed or show little movement (Targets E, F, H, J). Two Targets demonstrate negative trends ( e.g. Targets B, G).

5.103 In several cases a Target is partly on track to being met; e.g. Target C - enough places have been offered to meet the first part of the Target, but job sustainment figures are not sufficiently high to meet the second requirement.

5.104 For particular Targets, outcomes for some groups appear worse compared to others or the majority population; e.g. Target A shows strong progress overall, but older people are least likely to have benefited from this.

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