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CHAPTER THREE: EVALUATING CLOSING THE OPPORTUNITY GAP AIMS

INTRODUCTION

3.01 First and foremost, CtOG is an anti-poverty programme. The ultimate aim of CtOG is to prevent poverty in Scotland and enable the people of Scotland to live poverty-free lives.

CAUSES OF POVERTY IN SCOTLAND

3.02 Poverty can be attributed to behavioural, economic or social factors. Poverty is sometimes attributed to the behaviour of individuals, that is poverty results from the failings of individuals. Poverty may also be attributed to wider economic conditions, such as whether the economy is in a recession. Poverty is also attributed to social factors, that is, characteristics which define groups of people and which place additional demands on their resources and/or make them more vulnerable to other poverty-inducing factors.

3.03 It must also be acknowledged that poverty can be political, that is that poverty may increase, persist, or decrease as a direct result of the interventions - or non-interventions - of governments. In effect, CtOG acknowledges this by aiming to tackle poverty through the interventions of the Scottish Executive, in conjunction with other agencies in Scotland. The key issue to address is not whether government (in)activity is significant in relation to poverty; rather, the key point to consider is the extent to which government is prepared to intervene to tackle poverty and the effectiveness of these interventions. Through CtOG, the Scottish Executive has made its position clear: government has a lead role in tackling poverty in Scotland; the 'political' dimension of poverty has a central role in any contemporary analysis of poverty in Scotland.

3.04 However, political factors are multi-level. That is, the work of the Scottish Executive (and more particularly CtOG) is only one of the political tiers through which poverty in Scotland is addressed. The interventions of European Union, UK Government and local government must also be acknowledged. One further point to acknowledge is that CtOG operates in partnership - it is a multi-level government intervention driven by government at the national level (by the Scottish Executive), in conjunction with local government and Community Planning Partnerships, and other agencies outside government.

3.05 This interim evaluation appraises CtOG as an intervention to tackle poverty in the context of the wider political, social, economic and cultural contexts of which it is part. It examines:

• Poverty prevention
• Provision of routes out of poverty
• Enabling the Scottish population to sustain poverty-free lives

FOCUS AND DATA REQUIREMENTS FOR EVALUATING CtOG

3.06 In the absence of a Scottish official definition of poverty (except for children ¹⁵), SPIU/Inclusion have used Department for Work and Pensions ( DWP) Households Below Average Income ( HBAI) data. HBAI identifies households living on a low income, defined using a range of income thresholds. HBAI data are widely considered to be the most authoritative source of information on the incidence of poverty in Great Britain.

3.07 Note must also be made of the equivalisation scale used in this interim evaluation of HBAI data. Official measures of (child) poverty in the UK are in transition between using the McClements equivalisation scale and the modified OECD equivalisation scale (as used more widely in Europe). The McClements scale has been used in this report, although it is envisaged that subsequent evaluations of poverty in Scotland (and in the context of the UK) will use the modified OECD equivalisation scale.

Table 3.1: Poverty in Scotland, 1994/95 to 2004/05

Source: Scottish Executive, Scottish Households Below Average Income, 2004/05, 2006, Tables 1 and 2.

Note: Figures are derived from the Family Resources Survey. The McClements equivalisation scale has been used in the calculations and the figures refer to income After Housing Costs. Individuals with below 60 per cent GB median income, before housing costs and including self employed, 2004/05

3.08 The Scottish booster to the Scottish Household Panel Survey ( SHPS) is the only longitudinal data source that would allow for a study of the dynamics of poverty... However, there are three limitations with this source. First, data are not yet available to assess any changes that may have coincided with the introduction of CtOG. Second, the SPHS sample includes relatively few people experiencing poverty, and any future use of the dataset to consider poverty dynamics in Scotland would require considerable care and interpretation. Finally, the sample size and sampling frame of the SHPS would not allow for detailed analysis of the dynamics of poverty in relation particular CtOG interventions (given that CtOG is targeted on particular sub-populations and areas). Consequently, there is insufficient data to empirically examine poverty dynamics at this stage, and the prospects appear limited for utilising currently existing quantitative sources to appraise poverty dynamics in Scotland in the future, particularly as they pertain to CtOG. These issues and possible longer term responses are discussed more fully in the Scoping Study for the design of the CtOG evaluation ¹⁶.

TRENDS: POVERTY IN SCOTLAND

3.09 Since the mid-1990s, there has been a clear and consistent trend towards the reduction of poverty in Scotland, falling from a high of 1,240,000 (25%) of people living in absolute poverty in 1994/95 to 550,000 (11%) in 2004/05; and from 1,230,000 (25%) living in relative poverty to 910,000 (18%) over the same period. Indeed, these latest figures suggest that following a decade of fluctuations around the one million mark, the number of individuals living in relative poverty in Scotland is now firmly below one million.

3.10 Therefore, the trend in the reduction in poverty in Scotland pre-dates the introduction of CtOG. Future analysis should seek to ascertain whether the introduction of CtOG coincides with any significance change in this trend, e.g. a quickening of the pace of poverty reduction.

TREND COMPOSITION: POVERTY IN SCOTLAND

Age

3.11 People's risk of poverty and the particular barriers they face to escaping that poverty vary considerably over the life cycle. Children are at highest risk of poverty; many young people continue to face particular disadvantage through exclusion from education, employment or training after school; progress in reducing poverty has been lowest among working age adults; while pensioner poverty has seen the sharpest fall. However, we should avoid over-simplifying poverty to a set of discrete life stages - experience of poverty at one stage in the life cycle can have a significant impact on an individual's subsequent risk of poverty.

3.12 The reduction in the number of children living in absolute and relative income poverty coincides with the introduction of CtOG. According to Scottish Executive figures ¹⁷, 210,000 children living in Scotland are part of households whose income is so low that they can be considered to be living in poverty ( i.e. 60% below median equivalised income). Furthermore, 140,000 children in Scotland are living in households which have not experienced a real rise in income levels since 1998/99. In terms of proportions, and using the same Scottish Executive figures, more than one in five children in Scotland (21%) live in relative poverty, and more than almost more than one in eight children in Scotland (13%) live in absolute poverty.

3.13 As these figures show, child poverty is at a disturbingly high level in Scotland. However, since 1996/97, there has been a consistent trend towards the reduction of child poverty, falling from a high of 390,000 (35%) of children living in absolute poverty in 1996/97 to 140,000 (13%) in 2004/05; and from 340,000 (31%) living in relative poverty to 210,000 (21%) over the same period. There is some limited evidence that the reduction in the number of children living in absolute and relative low income poverty is uneven across sub-groups; in particular, there is no evidence of any recent reduction of poverty among disabled children.

3.14 The data indicates that there have been two phases of reduction in the number of pensioners living in absolute and relative low income poverty in Scotland, the latest of which coincides with the introduction of CtOG. Pensioner poverty first fell in the mid 1990s, and stabilised in the late 1990s, before falling again in recent years: by 2004/05, 17% of pensioners in Scotland experienced poverty, almost half the proportion who were in poverty in the mid 1990s. In contrast, there has been no significant change for adults of working age over the same period.

3.15 These figures demonstrate the impact that policy interventions can have on rates of poverty; while children and pensioners have benefited from governments' anti-poverty targets and strategy, those of working age have not.

POVERTY IN SCOTLAND AND BRITAIN

3.16 To assess the extent to which such trends, and compositions of basic trends, reflect Scottish or UK-wide factors, it is useful to compare evidence from Scotland to that from Great Britain as a whole and, more particularly, for those northern Government Office Regions ( GORs) in England, most similar Scotland in social issues.

3.17 There is evidence to suggest that the level of poverty in Scotland compares favourably to that in other parts of Great Britain (Table 3.2). The level of poverty in Scotland is marginally lower than that in Wales and most regions in England. Indeed, only in the East, South East and South West regions of England is there a lower level of poverty. It is worth noting also that the significant proportion of individuals living in poverty in London (well above the Scottish and GB averages) will have an impact on the overall GB average.

Table 3.2: Poverty in Scotland and other parts of Great Britain, 2004/05

Source: Department for Work and Pensions, Households Below Average Income, 2004/05, 2006, Table 3.6.

Note: Figures are derived from the Family Resources Survey. The McClements equivalisation scale has been used in the calculations and the figures refer to income After Housing Costs. Individuals with below 60 per cent GB median income, before housing costs and including self employed, 2004/05

3.18 Once again though, although this comparative GB data casts Scotland in a positive light, this should not be allowed to obscure the fact that many thousands of people in Scotland are currently living in poverty - more than half a million people using the more stringent measure of absolute poverty, and just less than one million using the relative measure of poverty.

EQUALITIES GROUP PERSPECTIVES ON THE AIMS OF CTOG

3.19 There is robust quantitative evidence on the incidence of poverty in Scotland to permit conclusions to be reached on both the current composition and recent trends in poverty at the aggregate level, and poverty at different life stages. The Scottish Executive has undertaken further analysis of HBAI data to inform understanding of patterns of poverty across disabled/non-disabled and ethnic groups, although limited sample sizes require these data to be interpreted carefully.

3.20 In the absence of readily available and robust national statistics to appraise the incidence of poverty across Equalities groups (and other key sub-populations), two alternatives are presented. Firstly, to infer probable patterns of poverty in Scotland from UK data (where such divisions are readily available); secondly, to canvass the opinions of representatives from those Equalities groups for whom data is less readily available.

3.21 Direct inference of the situation in Scotland from UK data is problematic and inadvisable to inform policy analysis and evaluation. However, it is informative to note that a recent review of the prevalence of poverty across sub-populations in Scotland, drew the following conclusions with regard to Equalities groups in Scotland ¹⁸:

• Lone parents are more than twice as likely to be poor compared with couples with children (and almost nine in ten lone parent households are headed by a woman). However, although the risk of poverty is higher for lone parents, there is more poverty in two-parent households in Great Britain
• More women live in poverty than men, although there is little difference in the risk rate between men and women. This apparent paradox can be explained by the fact that, although among pensioners, men are as likely as women to be in poverty, many more women than men are pensioners
• Disability is a significant factor in shaping the risk of poverty for households with at least one disabled adult and at least one disabled child. It is not the presence of disabled children per se that is the significant factor - households with disabled children and a non-disabled adult are no more likely to be at risk of poverty than households without disabled people - but the combination of disability among adults and children which is significant.

3.22 To gather further insight into poverty among Equalities groups in Scotland, interviews were undertaken with representatives of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender groups ( LGBT), disability organisations and faith communities. CtOG was broadly recognised by the representatives interviewed, although knowledge of the strategy did not generally extend to the individual Objectives or Targets. All groups questioned recognised and acknowledged the wider social exclusion agenda within Scotland, and welcomed the renewed focus on reducing inequalities and poverty. Social inclusion was considered in all cases to be a pertinent issue to the work carried out by all groups interviewed.

3.23 Repeated reference was made of studies, both old and new, that consistently showed people with disabilities and LGBT individuals as more likely to live in deprived areas and experience poverty ¹⁹. Similarly, disabled adults, those with learning difficulties and LGBT people remain under-represented in the workforce. Very high numbers of such groups are unemployed and are affected by the poverty that accompanies this. Particular measurement difficulties exist when trying to assess social exclusion within both groups at the individual level. Representatives of LGBT individuals argued that it is often difficult to identify or explain why sexual orientation leads to social exclusion, whether in an employment or education situation, and there is a prevailing perception that poverty is not a significant issue for the LGBT population. For disabled people, despite evident and sustained efforts to increase the numbers in employment, progress was reported to remain slow, particularly when it comes to sustaining employment for those who find it.

3.24 For disabilities groups, specific barriers remain in place, both physically, in terms of access to services, and socially, in terms of attitudinal difficulties faced in the public sphere. Special mention was made of challenges disabled people faced in the workplace and when accessing public services. However, overall, there was consensus among this group's representatives that positive steps were being made to address key concerns. Both the LGBT and disability groups felt that this could be attributed to a proactive effort on the part of the Scottish Executive and the UK Government to address societal prejudice and ensuing inequalities facing these groups. The six CtOG objectives were welcomed as both a step in the right direction and as a salient reminder of the continuing pressures, financial and social, faced by these groups.

SUMMARY

3.25 Poverty in Scotland is falling. However, this trend pre-dates CtOG and the fall is experienced unevenly across social groups. Particular progress has been made in reducing child poverty and pensioner poverty. Given the UK Government and Scottish Executive's commitment to address child poverty, further reductions in the level of child poverty may be expected. However, two key challenges are whether the extent of poverty among adults of working age can be reduced, and whether the persistence of poverty for some groups of children can be redressed as CtOG impacts upon poverty in Scotland in future years.

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